October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

It's gonna be a warm October.

Did Flatiron tip you off?

[Deweydog]

Did Flatiron tip you off?

Your clumps of hair falling out sealed it.

[Farmboy]

It's gonna be a warm October.

 

So you think this graphic is totally out to lunch?

[Jesse]

Your clumps of hair falling out sealed it.

 

I have a full head of thick, luscious hair. Tim or anyone else I have on facebook could attest.

 

Still waiting for you to respond to my request.

[Deweydog]

I have a full head of thick, luscious hair. Tim or anyone else I have on facebook could attest.

 

Still waiting for you to respond to my request.

Stalker.

[BLI snowman]

My money's on PDX staying above 40 all month again.

 

It's become an annual tradition.

[Deweydog]

So you think this graphic is totally out to lunch?

Nope. It will probably be wrong, though.

[Phil]

Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.

Cool September!!

[Phil]

Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

Trough west/ridge east will be the mean wavetrain through the first half of October. Still looks that way to me.

[Jesse]

Stalker.

 

Do you have an account?

[Jesse]

Trough west/ridge east will be the mean wavetrain through the first half of October. Still looks that way to me.

 

My guess is it will be mild and dry here through mid month with cool troughing centered to our east, then mild and wet here the last half of the month with a mean trough position offshore. Maybe some zonal mixed in too.

[Deweydog]

Do you have an account?

I do. My wife made me one several years ago because she got tired of people contacting her to contact me. I look at it about every six months, usually by accident.

[Jesse]

I do. My wife made me one several years ago because she got tired of people contacting her to contact me. I look at it about every six months, usually by accident.

I'll try to find it. There can't be that many Matthew Dogs in Hockinson.

[Deweydog]

I'll try to find it. There can't be that many Matthew Dogs in Hockinson.

She used my nickname from high school mixed with my favorite power tool.

[Farmboy]

Nope. It will probably be wrong, though.

Battle of the air masses.  So you think the warm nose off the coast will be too much of a force for any continental air to infiltrate west of the mountains....?

[Farmboy]

Chunky rain/ hail mix here in Puyallup right now.

[ShawniganLake]

Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor. WTF???

 

We need rain so desperately here! It stopped around noon. Getting the sprinklers out again. The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough.

 

That 1.25" is my exact total from the entire JAS period.

[Front Ranger]

Is this you when you are finally forced to admit that Phil regularly owns you in the forecasting department.

Phil's not bad. He just needs to be more honest.

[Jesse]

I'm seriously so bummed about the model trends right now.

[Kayla]

Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

 

Just a tad east on the call.

 

Have to give him credit for just making a call though since others here rarely do.

[Jesse]

Just a tad east on the call.

 

Have to give him credit for just making a call though since others here rarely do.

I give Phil plenty of credit.

[Farmboy]

Just a tad east on the call.

 

Have to give him credit for just making a call though since others here rarely do.

Where have I heard that before?  I hope that's not a trend for the next few months.  

[Deweydog]

I'm seriously so bummed about the model trends right now.

Quit messing with us, meanie!

[Deweydog]

This week looks stellar. First actual basin high of the season.

[Jesse]

Quit messing with us, meanie!

Every caricature has a hint of truth.

[Jesse]

This week looks stellar. First actual basin high of the season.

For sure. I'm thinking upper 30s could be in the cards here at some point next week. I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than PDX on calm, clear nights.

 

Would be nice if models trended a little sharper with that clipper at day 6, though. I guess there's still time. That had potential to be a 1985 type of event, close to the same days and everything.

[Deweydog]

Every caricature has a hint of truth.

Just a hint...

 

A smidge perhaps. Maybe a skosh.

[Jesse]

Just a hint...

 

A smidge perhaps. Maybe a skosh.

If you are really so obsessed with knowing the real me you should add me on Facebook.

[Deweydog]

If you are really so obsessed with knowing the real me you should add me on Facebook.

It's not that hard.

 

(That's what she said!)

[Deweydog]

For sure. I'm thinking upper 30s could be in the cards here at some point next week. I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than PDX on calm, clear nights.

 

Would be nice if models trended a little sharper with that clipper at day 6, though. I guess there's still time. That had potential to be a 1985 type of event, close to the same days and everything.

Models be all like inconsistent and when they all like a week away, bro.

[Jesse]

It's not that hard.

 

(That's what she said!)

It can be misleading, though. For instance, I'm sure you're not always so snarky and arrogant in polite society. A forum like this tends to amplified extreme, not always flattering, versions of people personalities.

[DareDuck]

Freeze warning for Central OR. Looking at our first hard freeze this week.

[Deweydog]

It can be misleading, though. For instance, I'm sure you're not always so snarky and arrogant in polite society. A forum like this tends to amplified extreme, not always flattering, versions of people personalities.

Duh.

[Jesse]

Duh.

So you probably don't know me as well as you think you do. Nor I you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Be interesting to see if I can get my first freeze this week. The average first freeze date when I moved up here was Sept 23rd. This is my 7th autumn now and the earliest freeze has been October 4th. The latest freeze on record was Oct 20th. I've only beat that 2 out of 6 falls . 

[Deweydog]

So you probably don't know me as well as you think you do. Nor I you.

I try to be fairly genuine here. People are always more direct and confrontational in an environment like this, part of the reason why social media has helped us to where we are as a society, but I don't fake much. Being a prick should at least be genuine prickishness.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That 1.25" is my exact total from the entire JAS period.

 

Yet the dry streak started even earlier than that, I suspect that's as much as you've had going back to ~June 19th. Compared to climate average it seems like this region is still running at about 30% of normal since mid-June.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 4.65" of rain in September. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some very beautiful CFS monthlies.

[Jesse]

Some very beautiful CFS monthlies.

For Octüber, or future months several months down the road?