October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[ShawniganLake]

Did the euro break at day 9?

[TT-SEA]

Jesse often points out the ECMWF bias of sending too much energy to the southwest... maybe this will be tempered in future runs.

 

Although right now the GFS and GEM agree on the overall pattern for late next week.

[TT-SEA]

Did the euro break at day 9?

 

Just stopped.   Got too cold.

[BLI snowman]

Unfortunately, climo shows that only 10 more days or so could mean the difference between this upper level progression producing widespread lowland snow versus widespread chilly rain.

[snow_wizard]

Unfortunately, climo shows that only 10 more days or so could mean the difference between this upper level progression producing widespread lowland snow versus widespread chilly rain.

 

We'll see.  We have had snow with the late October cold waves before and this one looks more solid than many of those.

[snow_wizard]

I knew it was a wicked February, I didn’t realize it was that cold.

 

The monthly average was 30.9 here that month.  Totally insane.

[snow_wizard]

Dense fog and 43 here right now.  I think the NWS will be way off calling for 60s in Seattle tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017102700/240/500h_anom.na.png

[BLI snowman]

We'll see.  We have had snow with the late October cold waves before and this one looks more solid than many of those.

 

Never anything too widespread, though. There's a reason why Downtown Seattle, back to 1894, has never recorded anything measurable before November 7. It takes a pretty insane event to produce anything to sea level that early. 

[snow_wizard]

Never anything too widespread, though. There's a reason why Downtown Seattle, back to 1894, has never recorded anything measurable before November 7. It takes a pretty insane event to produce anything to sea level that early. 

 

SEA did pretty good in 1971 and many places outside of Seattle had decent snow in 1935. Also some in 1984 and 1991.  The setup being shown on tonight's runs would do it, but now it has to verify.

[ShawniganLake]

I thought we wanted November to torch.

[Jesse]

Jesse often points out the ECMWF bias of sending too much energy to the southwest... maybe this will be tempered in future runs.

 

Although right now the GFS and GEM agree on the overall pattern for late next week.

It has a bias of cutting things off to the SW from what I can tell. That’s different than what it’s showing on the 00z.

 

The runs will probably trend warmer at some point, though. Only 600dm ridges make the cut untempered.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/oregon/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171106-0000z.html

 

Snow for everybody!

[TT-SEA]

Dense fog and 43 here right now. I think the NWS will be way off calling for 60s in Seattle tomorrow.

Way off?

 

East wind and clear here after a foggy afternoon... ECMWF shows low to mid 60s tomorrow. SEA was almost 60 today and tomorrow will be more mixed.

[BLI snowman]

SEA did pretty good in 1971 and many places outside of Seattle had decent snow in 1935. Also some in 1984 and 1991.  The setup being shown on tonight's runs would do it, but now it has to verify.

 

Trace-2" is certainly possible, you just have to way lower your expectations compared to what's climatologically possible a couple weeks later. Just not ideal timing if this thing "works out".

[snow_wizard]

I thought we wanted November to torch.

 

That's why I'm glad it's early.

[snow_wizard]

Trace-2" is certainly possible, you just have to way lower your expectations compared to what's climatologically possible a couple weeks later. Just not ideal timing if this thing "works out".

 

No doubt on that.

[Tenochtitlan]

SEA did pretty good in 1971 and many places outside of Seattle had decent snow in 1935. Also some in 1984 and 1991.  The setup being shown on tonight's runs would do it, but now it has to verify.

 

Wow, yeah 1991 looks nice.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBLI/1991/10/28/DailyHistory.html

[snow_wizard]

Way off?

 

East wind and clear here after a foggy afternoon... ECMWF shows low to mid 60s tomorrow. SEA was almost 60 today and tomorrow will be more mixed.

 

I'm not sure why tomorrow would be more mixed but we'll see I guess.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not sure why tomorrow would be more mixed but we'll see I guess.

It should be. It took all day to recover from that weak front. The models show a good offshore breeze the next 2 days all the way to SEA.

[WeatherArchive]

This block looks like it's going to be a beast!  This could be historic.  I would have to think 1935 is the early event on record that would match what is being modeled.

What happened back then?

[Jbolin]

What happened back then?

Old timey s**t

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like about 1000-1500' snow levels in W. Oregon with this. Lots of ensemble spread though. Cooler and damper is a good bet. 

[wx_statman]

Never anything too widespread, though. There's a reason why Downtown Seattle, back to 1894, has never recorded anything measurable before November 7. It takes a pretty insane event to produce anything to sea level that early. 

 

Snow did fall below 400' within the city of Seattle in late Oct. 1971 & 1984. Probably 1935 as well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Helping a friend move to LaPine this weekend. Good thing we picked this weekend and not next!

 

My brother is moving down to Coos Bay/North Bend, so I'll have a south coast weather source now. 

[snow_wizard]

The 6z enesmble is pretty insane.  From summer warmth to winter cold at the 850mb level.

[Parksvillewx]

Anyone know the new link for that German site for the GFS ensemble? Tried the old one and it didn't work.

[snow maniac]

SCORE!!!!!

Sure sucks being on the east side of the olympics, I see a future of rain shadowed frustration as everyone on the east side of the Puget Sound gets clobbered.... LOL

[Front Ranger]

Sure sucks being on the east side of the olympics, I see a future of rain shadowed frustration as everyone on the east side of the Puget Sound gets clobbered.... LOL

Seems like you've done alright in most scenarios though, right? Of course every microclimate has a different ideal setup for snow.

[Deweydog]

Disturbing lack of low clouds and/or fog this morning. I've been running the humidifier out in the backyard for hours with very little improvement.

[wx_statman]

Disturbing lack of low clouds and/or fog this morning. I've been running the humidifier out in the backyard for hours with very little improvement.

East wind actually strengthened overnight here.

[TT-SEA]

Disturbing lack of low clouds and/or fog this morning. I've been running the humidifier out in the backyard for hours with very little improvement.

 

Some low clouds trapped in the valleys... but mostly clear overall.

 

[Deweydog]

East wind actually strengthened overnight here.

***SHOULD*** be more of a gap wind today.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Stayed windy here all last night and didn't fall below 48F.

[ShawniganLake]

Stayed windy here all last night and didn't fall below 48F.

38F up this way. No wind.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sure sucks being on the east side of the olympics, I see a future of rain shadowed frustration as everyone on the east side of the Puget Sound gets clobbered.... LOL

 

A little early to panic Casey.  

[Deweydog]

I just hope this doesn't turn out like 2014 when we had to wait until like 11-15 to see snow.

[Jesse]

Stayed windy here all last night and didn't fall below 48F.

Same here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think the 12z is going to as exciting...

[stuffradio]

It dropped to 39F here, and I'm under a clear blue sky.