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First Flake of Snow Contest


Tom

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It's that time of year when anticipation is brewing and the seasons are changing.  One of my favorite times of year are on the horizon.  When will we see our first flakes of snow???  We have never done this before so I figure...why not???

 

Given the size of this forum, in order to make this a bit more challenging and broad in coverage, I have chosen several big cities in various parts of our sub forum.  Basically, it's pretty simple.  Provide your best idea on when these cities below will have their official first flake of snow...down to the date and time of day.  By the end of November, the winner will be whoever comes closest to any city that has recorded their first flake.  If for some odd reason, no city achieves their first flake by then, we will extend it into December.  I'm almost certain there will be a city in our sub forum that achieves their first flakes by end of November.

 

Here are the list of cities:

 

1) Chicago, IL

2) Minneapolis, MN

3) Omaha, NE

4) Des Moines, IA

5) Oklahoma, OK

6) Detroit, MI

7) Milwaukee, WI

 

 

If anyone else has any suggestions, I'm all ears....

 

Good luck!

 

 

Deadline: Oct 15th 11:59 pm

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Chicago: November 23

Minneapolis: November 13

Omaha: November 16

Des Moines: November 16

OKC: December 28

Detroit: November 18

Milwaukee: November 14

Can you edit your answers and put a time of day as well just in case somebody else chooses the same date.  That way it is more specific.  For instance, 12:00pm

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1) Chicago, IL----------------Nov 15th, 5:00pm

2) Minneapolis, MN--------- Oct 29th, 10-:00pm

3) Omaha, NE----------------Dec 18th, 2:30am

4) Des Moines, IA------------Nov 2nd, 12:05pm

5) Oklahoma, OK------------ Dec 30th, 1:23pm

6) Detroit, MI----------------- Nov 17th, 2:30PM

7) Milwaukee, WI------------ Oct 30th, 8:00pm

 

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Why do you hate us?

:lol: No offense...I hope I am wrong, but, gotta go with my gut here.

 

Btw: If I am a winner, Tom should write me a nice check. :P ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:lol: No offense...I hope I am wrong, but, gotta go with my gut here.

 

Btw: If I am a winner, Tom should write me a nice check. :P ;)

It's something I will consider doing for the winner.  It all depends on how my finances are at the end of the day... B)

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Newbie is going to play!

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (10:32 pm)
Omaha: Nov 10 (7:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 10 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 21 (10:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 21 (11:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 2 (10:46 pm)

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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It's something I will consider doing for the winner.  It all depends on how my finances are at the end of the day... B)

Just joking with ya. Its all fun in this! :D ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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..and I normally shy away from these contests even though I love snow and winter.

 

Nonetheless, gonna take a stab:

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am)
Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm)

 

Oh, and with these being large metro areas, snow could fall in some parts and miss others. Might want to clarify the exact site locations as well as what "officially" qualifies as "first flakes". NWS recording of a "T", or social media photo posted of a car top duster, etc..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..and I normally shy away from these contests even though I love snow and winter.

 

Nonetheless, gonna take a stab:

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)

Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am)

Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am)

Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm)

Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am)

Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am)

Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm)

 

Oh, and with these being large metro areas, snow could fall in some parts and miss others. Might want to clarify the exact site locations as well as what "officially" qualifies as "first flakes". NWS recording of a "T", or social media photo posted of a car top duster, etc..

 

Edit:

 

I like your technical thinking. Let's go with the first flakes being categorized as the official site recording station. It's more accurate in terms of pinning down the time of day with which flakes will fly.

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1) Chicago, IL----------------Nov 15th, 5:00pm

2) Minneapolis, MN--------- Oct 29th, 10-:00pm

3) Omaha, NE----------------Dec 18th, 2:30am

4) Des Moines, IA------------Nov 2nd, 12:05pm

5) Oklahoma, OK------------ Dec 30th, 1:23pm

6) Detroit, MI----------------- Nov 17th, 2:30PM

7) Milwaukee, WI------------ Oct 30th, 8:00pm

 

:D

 

 

Why do you hate us?

 

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

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:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

@ NEJeremy,

 

That reverse psychology I did might do the trick for you guys this Winter and give ya a lot of snow.  ;) 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gonna take a wild stab, these are just guesses, I've looked at literally 0 forecasts for this winter.

 

1) Chicago, IL : 11/15 11:15pm

2) Minneapolis, MN : 10/27 6:15am

3) Omaha, NE : 11/8 10:30pm

4) Des Moines, IA : 11/9 8:00am

5) Oklahoma, OK : 12/8 5:15pm

6) Detroit, MI : 11/14 2:35am

7) Milwaukee, WI : 11/4 7:30pm

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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:lol: Hope Tom likes crunching numbers and sorting data! Gonna have his hands full sorting out the winner, he is.. :blink:
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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  • 2 weeks later...

Edit:

 

I like your technical thinking. Let's go with the first flakes being categorized as the official site recording station. It's more accurate in terms of pinning down the time of day with which flakes will fly.

Thinking about this again, since time of day is part of the criteria equation, will you be using the hourly (or sub-hrly) site data to determine who's closest?

 

I know it's just for fun & a 6-pack, so we'll let you sort all that out. Oh, and I still like my calls for the record.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thinking about this again, since time of day is part of the criteria equation, will you be using the hourly (or sub-hrly) site data to determine who's closest?

 

I know it's just for fun & a 6-pack, so we'll let you sort all that out. Oh, and I still like my calls for the record.

TBH, I think we should just roll with the hourly reports.

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I'm expecting an early taste of Winter for many on here and you will see that in the dates below.  Based on what I've looked at and my gut feelings about this season, Winter is coming early.  So, with that being said, here are my dates:

 

1) Chicago, IL:   10/30 3:33am

2) Minneapolis, MN: 10/27 7:47pm

3) Omaha, NE:  11/6 5:55pm

4) Des Moines, IA:  11/1 11:11pm

5) Oklahoma, OK:   11/28  4:44am

6) Detroit, MI:  10/31 6:00am

7) Milwaukee, WI: 10/30 4:00am

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here are everyone's Final answers:

 

LNK-Weather

 

Chicago: November 23, 9:34am

Minneapolis: November 13 5:35am

Omaha: November 16 10:15am

Des Moines: November 16 6:59pm

OKC: December 28, 2:01am

Detroit: November 18 8:32am

Milwaukee: November 14 3:57pm

 

Niko

 

1) Chicago, IL----------------Nov 15th, 5:00pm

2) Minneapolis, MN--------- Oct 29th, 10-:00pm

3) Omaha, NE----------------Dec 18th, 2:30am

4) Des Moines, IA------------Nov 2nd, 12:05pm

5) Oklahoma, OK------------ Dec 30th, 1:23pm

6) Detroit, MI----------------- Nov 17th, 2:30PM

7) Milwaukee, WI------------ Oct 30th, 8:00pm

 

WestMJim

 

Chicago Nov 22 7:30 AM

Minneapolis, MN Oct 27th 9 AM

 Omaha, NE Oct 15th 3AM

Des Moines, IA NOV 20TH 6AM

Oklahoma, OK  Dec 13th 2 PM

Detroit, MI Nov 23rd 4AM

Milwaukee, WI Nov 19th 5PM

 

Snowstorm83

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (10:32 pm)
Omaha: Nov 10 (7:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 10 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 21 (10:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 21 (11:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 2 (10:46 pm)

 

 

Jaster

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am)
Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm)

 

NEJeremy

 

Chicago: 10/28 3:08 am
Minneapolis: 10/27 8:24 pm
Omaha: 11/15 10:32 pm
Des Moines: 11/10 4:25 am
Oklahoma City: 12/19 2:34 am
Detroit: 11/2 9:45 am
Milwaukee: 10/28 12:05 am

 
NebraskaWx
 

Chicago: 11/02 7:04 a.m.

Minneapolis: 11/01 10:28 p.m.

Omaha: 03/01/2019 1 a.m. (a passing flurry)

Des Moines: 11/24 11:12 a.m.

Oklahoma City: 12/21 8:25 p.m.

Detroit: 11/04 9 a.m.

Milwaukee 11/02 12:30 a.m.

 
AndrewNE
 

1) Chicago, IL : 11/07 4:18am

2) Minneapolis, MN : 10/28 9:15pm

3) Omaha, NE : 11/21 10:30pm

4) Des Moines, IA : 11/21 11:50pm

5) Oklahoma, OK : 12/13 8:30pm

6) Detroit, MI : 11/03 6:18am

7) Milwaukee, WI : 11/01 3:28am

 

 

Gimmesnow

 

1) Chicago, IL: 11/28

2) Minneapolis, MN: 11/16

3) Omaha, NE: 12/8

4) Des Moines, IA 11/27

5) Oklahoma, OK: 12/18

6) Detroit, MI: 11/5

7) Milwaukee, WI: 11/27

 

 

NWLinnCountyIA

 

1) Chicago, IL : 11/15 11:15pm

2) Minneapolis, MN : 10/27 6:15am

3) Omaha, NE : 11/8 10:30pm

4) Des Moines, IA : 11/9 8:00am

5) Oklahoma, OK : 12/8 5:15pm

6) Detroit, MI : 11/14 2:35am

7) Milwaukee, WI : 11/4 7:30pm

 

Tom

 

1) Chicago, IL:   10/30 3:33am

2) Minneapolis, MN: 10/27 7:47pm

3) Omaha, NE:  11/6 5:55pm

4) Des Moines, IA:  11/1 11:11pm

5) Oklahoma, OK:   11/28  4:44am

6) Detroit, MI:  10/31 6:00am

7) Milwaukee, WI: 10/30 4:00am

 

 

Let it Snow!

 

 

 
 

 

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I can't believe that Omaha may actually get the first flakes in this entire thread.

 

Would be a great sign me thinks.. ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I can't believe that Omaha may actually get the first flakes in this entire thread.

That would be great! I hope you guys out there score big-time this winter with tons of snow. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I think this contest will be over come next weekend. Whether it be OMA, DSM, or MSP... We'll find that out later.

Should be interesting to see who wins!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I have the best plan. If I'm wrong, I get snow early, and if I'm right, I win. I can't lose! And it looks like I might end up being very wrong, forecasts are already teasing first flakes next week for me in SE Wisconsin.

No kidding, I may have to change this contest to the city that gets their 1st inch of snow!  It's all good fun anyway but if the models continue with the trends they are showing, it may even be more wintry than I initially thought.

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Is it first city to get snow, or person who gets the most cities correct??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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