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Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index

snow_wizard

By snow_wizard
in West of the Rockies

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Guest happ

Guest happ

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The reanalysis site has revised the data for October and it ended up at 4.90 which means it blew away 1961 for the highest October NPS.  November ended up at +0.7 which makes the combined value one of the highest on record since 1948.  The highest years for Oct and Nov combined were...

 

1948

1956

1961

1971

1978

1985

1990

2013

 

Al of these winters had major cold and many of them were among the coldest winters on record.  None of this grouped failed to deliver major Arctic blasts to the NW.  Pretty compelling stuff. 

 

That 1990 arctic airmass penetrated well into California and was the first time I recorded a freezing temp/ ice formed on the pool where I lived. Great memories.

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snow_wizard
snow_wizard

I have decided to do a detailed post on what is probably the most certain indicator of a coming cold winter that I have found in all my years of research. This is based on a climate index I developed

Phil
Phil

It was definitely abrupt, perhaps even more-so. Though I'd argue that it was the super El Niño itself that brought on that prolonged La Niña. Long post here, so I'm sorry if I'm stating the obvious.  

snow_wizard
snow_wizard

The October value ended up at 4.70...a new record at least back to 1948.

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Black Hole Mentor

Black Hole

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Snow Wizard, any thoughts or update? Certainly some unbelievable blocking setting up, but too far east (over us). I think things will change eventually, hopefully before our window for real winter is over.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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wx_statman Apprentice

wx_statman

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Jim has a tendency to short-change January 1959. I've noticed it over the years.  :lol:

 

That cold wave produced -55 in Montana and -35 in NE Oregon (at Minam). Also I believe some all-time record lows on the Colorado plains. 

 

Interesting, I've never really looked into that cold wave here. 1951, 1962, and 1963 were the big January cold events from that era I was aware of. I do see that DEN had a high of -1 one day with that event.

 

Yeah, I know I saw some all-time records from Jan 1959. They were either in SE Colorado or nearby areas of KS/OK/NM/TX. Pueblo was close....hit -28 on the 4th. Only -31 on 2/1/1951 and -29 on 1/28/1948 were colder. 

 

FYI if you're interested...Boise City, in the OK panhandle, set its all-time record low of -24 on 1/4/1959. Just ran across that reading while looking up numbers for a different post.  

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Snow Wizard, any thoughts or update? Certainly some unbelievable blocking setting up, but too far east (over us). I think things will change eventually, hopefully before our window for real winter is over.

 

I have a lot of faith in this index when it's high in October and / or November.  I'm betting we score big somewhere in the late Dec to late Jan period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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WeatherArchive Newbie

WeatherArchive

Posted
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Snow Wizard, any thoughts or update? Certainly some unbelievable blocking setting up, but too far east (over us). I think things will change eventually, hopefully before our window for real winter is over.

Willing to bet this will all flip over to the proper sweet spot with the Kona low of your dreams come March/April and we will all be asking what would've happened if this came in December/January?

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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I'm from Oklahoma and didn't know this one. Thank you.

 

What do you generally regard as the greatest Oklahoma cold wave of all time? Obviously there was the state record in February 2011, but the one that really stands out to me is the December 1983 blast. A max of 5 at Tulsa and sub-zero at Ponca City. Pretty amazing. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
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What do you generally regard as the greatest Oklahoma cold wave of all time? Obviously there was the state record in February 2011, but the one that really stands out to me is the December 1983 blast. A max of 5 at Tulsa and sub-zero at Ponca City. Pretty amazing. 

 

Isn't it 1899? -17 at OKC is pretty good.

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Black Hole Mentor

Black Hole

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Up to this point this winter has featured extreme blocking, even if not in the right place. All of that looks to change next week with cold air pouring into the west. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Are there any tweaks to the index that you're considering for next winter?

 

Not really.  If you look at this past winter Dec and Feb were pretty decent.  January really spoiled the winter average.  Besides...the only time the index is really conclusive is with seasons that have big positive anoms in the autumn.  The index did a pretty good job of foretelling major GOA ridging during a large part of the winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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What do you generally regard as the greatest Oklahoma cold wave of all time? Obviously there was the state record in February 2011, but the one that really stands out to me is the December 1983 blast. A max of 5 at Tulsa and sub-zero at Ponca City. Pretty amazing.

I hadn't been over here in awhile but I'd say December 1983 in terms of just sheer oppression from cold that seemed unending and then the repeat weaker blast following it in mid-January '84. I've listened to stories about it and read the PDF obs forms from then and I think it was pretty special.

 

2010-11 will probably hold the distinguishing honor of literally being the most extreme bi-polar winter in terms of statistics that I've ever lived through. I don't really know how to surpass the experience of every type of weather in 2 months time. New Years tornadoes to a post-blizzard all-time record low of -31 and an all time record high of 83 within 7 days. Winter total snow 33". It will be hard to top that in my lifetime.

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