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Hard Evidence For A Cold PNW Winter...My NPS Index


snow_wizard

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We don't completely understand ENSO, actually. There are statistically-derived forecasting methodologies and other theories employed (I have some of my own), however it's not something we can dynamically model with much success, at least for the time being.

I think she was mostly trying to be condescending.

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I think she was mostly trying to be condescending.

That's the vibe I got as well, but I didn't want to jump into that rabbit hole again. Lol.

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That's the vibe I got as well, but I didn't want to jump into that rabbit hole again. Lol.

Probably for the best.

 

But yeah it’s pretty obvious to anyone that knows about the complexities of global climate that ENSO isn’t something you are going to easily get a comprehensive grasp on by watching YouTube.

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Probably for the best.

 

But yeah it’s pretty obvious to anyone that knows about the complexities of global climate that ENSO isn’t something you are going to easily get a comprehensive grasp on by watching YouTube.

Couldn't agree more. I'm still learning about it.

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6.65 through the 19th and I'm sure yesterday was positive as well.  With a mix of positive and negative NPS days coming up I'm very confident the final number will be over 3.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Regardless, there is a lot of good information that makes ENSO easier to understand online, including Youtube. That much is true.

If by online, you mean published/peer reviewed literature, then yeah, definitely.

 

As for YouTube..hell no. Anyone trying to learn about ENSO shouldn't have to sort through crackpot accounts, poor and/or oversimplified analyses, and downright misinformation.

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If by online, you mean published/peer reviewed literature, then yeah, definitely.

 

As for YouTube..hell no. Anyone trying to learn about ENSO shouldn't have to sort through crackpot accounts, poor and/or oversimplified analyses, and downright misinformation.

 

Anytime you're looking for good info online, you generally have to sift through the crap to find the gold. Doesn't mean it's not out there.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

 

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

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I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

 

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

 

I get what you're saying, but there's no silver bullet. You can have all the data/research in the world at your fingertips and in your algorithms, but ultimately when trying to forecast an extremely complex and chaotic system, it's only going to incrementally help.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Anytime you're looking for good info online, you generally have to sift through the crap to find the gold. Doesn't mean it's not out there.

If you're an average joe looking to learn, you won't necessarily have sufficient knowledge to sort truth from bullcrap.

 

If you're a student/academic, or someone with more in-depth knowledge of ENSO (like many on this forum), you're not going to browse f**king YouTube for information on ENSO.

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I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

 

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

 

This seems to be a pretty common opinion. But in reality even 7 day forecasts have gotten much better over the last 10-20 years. It's sort of amazing how well the models can catch things at range sometimes, actually. 

 

Of course, per human nature, we tend to remember the misses better than the hits. But it's good to take a minute to think about how far we've come too.

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Unless one were to specifically direct students to watch a scientifically-legitimate YouTube video, it's stupid to recommend that someone simply "browse YouTube" for videos on ENSO, in my opinion.

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This seems to be a pretty common opinion. But in reality even 7 day forecasts have gotten much better over the last 10-20 years. It's sort of amazing how well the models can catch things at range sometimes, actually. 

 

Of course, per human nature, we tend to remember the misses better than the hits. But it's good to take a minute to think about how far we've come too.

True. Especially the visuals. Like radar imaging and satellite imagery. I remember the pixelated imagery from the Hanukkah Eve storm in 2006. Looking at that compared to what we have now is like hopping out of an 80's Toyota pickup and into a 2017 Chevy Silverado. 

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Unless one were to specifically direct students to watch a scientifically-legitimate YouTube video, it's stupid to recommend that someone simply "browse YouTube" for videos on ENSO, in my opinion.

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it's a bit over the top to make 3 rage-posts about the suggestion of using YouTube for any level of learning.

 

Not everybody interested in a topic needs the details present in many scientific journals. Many videos online are sufficient enough to introduce a newbie to the topic. Most people tend to be visual learners, and the animations can be very useful.

 

Here are a couple videos that are decent in explaining El Nino formation, for example, and the involvement of Kelvin waves, without being too overwhelming for someone with less of a scientific background:

 

 

There are many more online that are sufficient for the purposes of introducing someone interested in the topic.

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I’d like to know if any forecast models anywhere in the world include data in the algorithms that resembles this NPS index.

 

I mean it’s 2017 and everything in the world is so advanced technologically but it seems our ability to correctly forecast the weather even a week out is horribly flawed.

 

Things like the PNA and NPI kind of resemble the NPS, but the NPS has particular relevance to the NW alone.  As I said it's a matter of coming up with enough of these indices to where you have at least one index (out of many indices) that is highly relevant to the situation / context that we are currently in.  It just so happens this year we have the NPS in a state that is highly relevant to our coming winter.  This one actually holds true in spite of ENSO if the NPS is very high in October.  That makes it a bit of a rarity.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it's a bit over the top to make 3 rage-posts about the suggestion of using YouTube for any level of learning.

 

Not everybody interested in a topic needs the details present in many scientific journals. Many videos online are sufficient enough to introduce a newbie to the topic. Most people tend to be visual learners, and the animations can be very useful.

 

Here are a couple videos that are decent in explaining El Nino formation, for example, and the involvement of Kelvin waves, without being too overwhelming for someone with less of a scientific background:

 

 

There are many more online that are sufficient for the purposes of introducing someone interested in the topic.

 

I agree.  It's a good starting point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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If the current progs verify the NPS this month should end up around +6 at least. That would blow any previous October back to 1948 out of the water. As I've mentioned before ALL Octobers that were +3 or above had multiple Arctic blasts in the following winter.

How are we looking on that front? Same or has it changed in the last couple days?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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How are we looking on that front? Same or has it changed in the last couple days?

 

We're looking really good.  In spite of the coming ridge being further east than I had hoped the offshore pressure and heights will be pretty high in the coming days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We're looking really good. In spite of the coming ridge being further east than I had hoped the offshore pressure and heights will be pretty high in the coming days.

Wasn't 49-50 a warm November then the ridge retrograded persistently from that point foreword numerous times?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Wasn't 49-50 a warm November then the ridge retrograded persistently from that point foreword numerous times?

 

Yup.  After the warm November we had a windy and mixed December with frequent temperature swings and some snow and cold started to show up.  The mid December cold snap / snow was better than anything we see in some lame winters here, and it was just a tiny appetizer.  It's very interesting to note nearly all of the analogs I'm looking at had something in December even if it wasn't the big month of the winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

 

What do you think of the Oregon state climatologist's outlook? He seems adamant that it won't be as cold and snowy as last winter.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

 

What do you think of the Oregon state climatologist's outlook? He seems adamant that it won't be as cold and snowy as last winter.

 

There is that 1996-97 popping up again... I feel like that winter is undersold as an analog here.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

 

What do you think of the Oregon state climatologist's outlook? He seems adamant that it won't be as cold and snowy as last winter.

 

I'm not as confident about OR, but up here I think this winter has a very good chance of being colder and snowier than last.  That is because last winter was better down there and I think this one might have a strong N to S gradient.  Being adamant it won't be colder there though....

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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There is that 1996-97 popping up again... I feel like that winter is undersold as an analog here.

 

It's probably a legit analog.  A good match for solar and the preceding winter was a Nina, although 1996-97 was neutral.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's probably a legit analog. A good match for solar and the preceding winter was a Nina, although 1996-97 was neutral.

The system state is more (inertially) primed for high latitude blocking this year when compared to years like 1996/97 and 2007/08, however both of those years were deeper into the solar wind minimum, so it's tough to say what will happen this year, in that regard.

 

At this point, the Ap Index (geoeffective solar wind) is the only solar parameter that really matters.

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It's probably a legit analog.  A good match for solar and the preceding winter was a Nina, although 1996-97 was neutral.

 

Yeah. 96-97 was neutral cold and I'm honestly having a hard time seeing this year being much different. Uphill battle to see a -0.5 ONI for 3 consecutive months to qualify as a true Niña this season IMO.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I'm not as confident about OR, but up here I think this winter has a very good chance of being colder and snowier than last.  That is because last winter was better down there and I think this one might have a strong N to S gradient.  Being adamant it won't be colder there though....

 

Last winter was kind of weird in that it was better both to the north and south of the Puget Sound region. Usually it's one or the other.

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I'm not as confident about OR, but up here I think this winter has a very good chance of being colder and snowier than last. That is because last winter was better down there and I think this one might have a strong N to S gradient. Being adamant it won't be colder there though....

OLM northward will have an epic winter. I’m genuinely excited. Just feels like it is going to snow in November this year.

 

Plus prior to last season we have had quite a few duds since 2012

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OLM northward will have an epic winter. I’m genuinely excited. Just feels like it is going to snow in November this year.

 

Plus prior to last season we have had quite a few duds since 2012

Really hope we don't miss out here in OR but the analogs sure favor WA getting a great winter while we will be cooler than normal but won't see much snow in the Willamette Valley.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

 

What do you think of the Oregon state climatologist's outlook? He seems adamant that it won't be as cold and snowy as last winter.

 

I just noticed his analogs were entirely based on ENSO.  Pretty thin criteria.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah. 96-97 was neutral cold and I'm honestly having a hard time seeing this year being much different. Uphill battle to see a -0.5 ONI for 3 consecutive months to qualify as a true Niña this season IMO.

 

I actually think a weaker Nina will serve us well.  With the -QBO a strong Nina would charge up the EPO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Last winter was kind of weird in that it was better both to the north and south of the Puget Sound region. Usually it's one or the other.

 

That is a good point.  The moisture was the real culprit last winter.  We had our share of cold here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

OLM northward will have an epic winter. I’m genuinely excited. Just feels like it is going to snow in November this year.

 

Plus prior to last season we have had quite a few duds since 2012

 

This does look fantastic for us.  I would be surprised if we score in November, but you never know.  December, on the other hand, looks highly likely to have something good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I just noticed his analogs were entirely based on ENSO.  Pretty thin criteria.

 

I think there was more to it than that, as there were many similar ENSO years they didn't use. I'm guessing the late summer heat pattern was a factor, since both 1981 and 1967 had that as well.

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I think there was more to it than that, as there were many similar ENSO years they didn't use. I'm guessing the late summer heat pattern was a factor, since both 1981 and 1967 had that as well.

I still feel like he weighs ENSO a bit too much but who knows?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I think there was more to it than that, as there were many similar ENSO years they didn't use. I'm guessing the late summer heat pattern was a factor, since both 1981 and 1967 had that as well.

 

Good point.  Out of his analogs one was fabulous for the northern half of WA 1996-97, one had a good January event 1981-82, and one was decent for southern areas in particular 1967-68.  The interesting thing is none of those had the kind of positive anoms over the NE Pacific in October we are seeing this year.  The only one that might have had a big cold trough in October was 1996.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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What is our number for the month at now?

 

The latest weekly number is -0.8C in the 3.4 region. The October number isn't in yet.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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