3/4 - 3/6 Clipper's

[East Dubzz]

Had well over 2" last night. Radio said 2 1/2"...

There was a report of 2.5" in Dubuque, but the official report for Dubuque was 1.4"..

[Tony]

+ Tony, complete bust with last Saturday's system.  I think it had less than .10qpf for ORD!  LOL  Anyway, I like what I'm seeing in the trend for the models.  Showing some decent qpf totals that may warrant an advisory for this afternoons disco's.

On another plus side(as Geos mentioned) when you have the GFS wetter than the NAM that has to be a good sign.

[East Dubzz]

Wow, Euro would be complete weak sauce. But as someone had mentioned, it's been off this year, especially with clippers.

[Tom]

I'd imagine the precip shield is going to be much wider than what the Euro is showing.  You have to make a human judgement when looking at what the general trend has been on all the models.  This looks like it could be a decent event.

[Madtown]

MKE issued WWA for the county directly west and directly south maybe squeak 3" outta this baby

[Tony]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_045_precip_p36.gif

The 6z showed this as well so maybe the hi-res model is onto something

[Geos]

WW Advisories going up...

[Tom]

18z NAM...I'd expect WWA to be issued in N IL as well...

[james1976]

i dont like being on the southern fringes of this.

[Iowawx]

Darn, tonights clipper is going to my north. My guess is little to no snow again. 

[james1976]

WWA just to my north. hope it gets expanded south.

[james1976]

looking at the radar it looks like most of it will miss me unless it develops south

[midwest buildit]

my forecast just got lowered to "around and inch tonight"

[Geos]

I'm in for 1-3" in my forecast. That northern cutoff is really sharp...

[East Dubzz]

DVN with 2-3"... LAX has 3-5" for me and a local met has the same.

[Tom]

18z GFS...still robust in IA/SW Wisco...

 

[Geos]

18z GFS...still robust in IA/SW Wisco...

 

Judging by the radar and direction of travel it is taking the northern route.

 

I think Madison is looking good also.

[East Dubzz]

RGEM not all too thrilling...

[james1976]

im in a WWA but the far southern edge of it.

[midwest buildit]

And then, skilling just tweeted 2-4 ..lol.

[Madtown]

sure looks like this puppy is coming in a tad north

[Geos]

sure looks like this puppy is coming in a tad north

 

Definitely

 

[East Dubzz]

Aghhhh!!! Models suck with these dang clippers!

[MarcusBeier]

So this will just die as it heads into SEMI?

[james1976]

looks way north...im thinking 1-2 for me if that.

[Geos]

So this will just die as it heads into SEMI?

 

Supposed to.

 

---

 

This has Madison and Milwaukee written all over it. 

Racine will probably do better than here.

 

NE Iowa is going to have to fill in otherwise those advisories are overkill. 

[james1976]

we pry end up with less snow than last night

[Geos]

we pry end up with less snow than last night

 

What's going on there now?

 

Thinking that the WAA is stronger than predicted and is forcing the snow further north.

[East Dubzz]

[Geos]

Milwaukee just added Sauk, Dane and Rock Counties to the advisory.

 

[East Dubzz]

[Geos]

Can't complain. Areas of southern Wisconsin have been left out multiple times this winter.

[Tom]

The Clipper is supposed to jog SSE and you can see that starting to happen on the back end of the snow shield near SD.  You can see that the snow shield isn't going farther north of Rochester, MN and from there draw a line towards Madison, WI.  LOT mentioned the HP to the north will push it south.  The next few hours we should start seeing this if this holds true.

[abhidupage]

From early looks at the HRRR model it seems like main precip shield stays north of border and we get clipped but trends next few hours will be interesting.

Towards early morning it does show that SSE jog you got a good point Tom.

[Tom]

00z NAM...shows the dip southeastward...

[Geos]

6" in northeast Iowa isn't happening. The radar would have to start blossoming right now there.

 

Right now it looks like it is traveling the purple line I drew with the pivot point being the red line.

 

 

 

My workplace in Racine should get more than here.

[East Dubzz]

Just depends whether it sinks south like Tom is mentioning. If it starts to head basically SE like the NAM is showing, rather than ESE, then I like my chances, but if it continues the way it is, then this baby is gonna be a bust!

[Geos]

Just depends whether it sinks south like Tom is mentioning. If it starts to head basically SE like the NAM is showing, rather than ESE, then I like my chances, but if it continues the way it is, then this baby is gonna be a bust!

 

You would want that shift before the pivot point passes over you.

 

Definitely a bust for James.

 

Newest graphic from ARX

 

[Iowawx]

Going to be a dud here in Cedar Rapids. Just too far north. Oh well. 

[East Dubzz]