10/26-10/28 Upper MW/GL's Snow System

[Minny_Weather]

Euro shlammers WI/U.P. border with 15". 2-5" amounts covering Minnesota. MSP with 1-3".

[jaster220]

WSWatches expanded eastward to include The Arrowhead of MN     Far north is the right place for #winter to be showing up first. We still need autumn down here, lol

 

 

[Stormgeek]

MSP afternoon AFD a pretty standard discussion for these earlier systems; not sure on temperature gradients and how quickly the atmosphere will be able to chill enough to change p-type. Sounds like they have a general idea of track, citing that the euro shifted east just a tiny bit, so they shadowed that. So, it basically all comes down to temps and timing which is quite typical of early season systems. Heard on the radio on my way home that a ski resort may be trying to make snow in these next couple chilly days and could open as soon as next Monday! Crazy weather we are having.

[St Paul Storm]

From Duluth. Get that snowpack in place up nort der!

[Tom]

From Duluth. Get that snowpack in place up nort der!

Not a bad 1st snow day I’d say! As you said, build that glacier early.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX steady as she goes for now, but says stay tuned:

 

For now, the forecast is not dramatically different

from the previous forecast, although the max area is shifted

slightly east with slightly eastward shift in the ECMWF and other

solutions. It will be prudent to continue to monitor forecast

updates and trends in the forecast, since higher accumulations

could certainly occur in some areas, including the Twin Cities

metro, should the changeover occur sooner, the snow:liquid ratios

be higher, and/or the higher model QPF forecasts verify.

Regardless, accumulation should certainly occur more readily over

grassy/natural surfaces vs pavement, but snow will always

accumulate (even on pavement) if snowfall rates become sufficient.

[Tom]

You guys in MN should have quite the "slap" in the face from Ol' Man Winter with 40+ mph wind gusts and snow driving sideways.  That's going to be a fun looking scene.  Everything will be caked with snow, esp if its a wetter variety which it will likely be.

[james1976]

DMX afd is a good read. Talking potential for a couple inches of snow north of highway 20 and 45mph wind gusts. Possible headlines but holding off for now due to model inconsistensies. Also mentions hard freeze fri & sat nite. Winter is coming fast!

[St Paul Storm]

Just west of the MSP metro should do well. Looks like 1-2” possible here north of St Paul with gusts 40-50mph. Pretty cool when the local office uses words like frontogenesis and deformation band for the first snow of the season. Let’s hope it’s the start of a very good winter.

[jaster220]

DMX afd is a good read. Talking potential for a couple inches of snow north of highway 20 and 45mph wind gusts. Possible headlines but holding off for now due to model inconsistensies. Also mentions hard freeze fri & sat nite. Winter is coming fast!

 

These guys like N Iowa for snow:

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro...

 

[jaster220]

^^^ That makes it look like all of Canada gets snow from this system. Is it that big??    

[Tom]

12z NAM trending towards more snow for the MSP area....

[jaster220]

12z NAM trending towards more snow for the MSP area....

 

Nice. This is a very fascinating storm tbh, with the NNW to SSE trajectory and surprising winds. Especially right on the heals of the GL's bomb. Really gonna be some cool stuff this winter. Wound-up systems are all the rage it would seem, at least for now..   I love snow with strong winds. Drifts are one of my fave features of good winters around SMI. 

[St Paul Storm]

12z NAM trending towards more snow for the MSP area....

12z NAM temps are a few degrees cooler than the 06z run. It appears there’s at least a chance of a quicker changeover happening than previously thought. Very interesting. The morning commute looks like it might be a rough one. iirc there were 800+ reported accidents across the state during the first snowfall last year.

[jaster220]

I believe this is the first one of these with the white hatched region east of the Rockies. 26-Oct, not bad.

 

 

[Tom]

12z NAM 3km...this system has everything you can ask for in 1 system for the first Taste of Winter: wind, snow, LES and then the cold!

 

[Niko]

Now, it looks like more heavier rains are forecast in my area with this system, whereas, couple days ago, it seemed like it was going to be a weaker storm for my region.

[Stormgeek]

12z NAM 3km...this system has everything you can ask for in 1 system for the first Taste of Winter: wind, snow, LES and then the cold!

 

Looks like up to 3 inches of wintry precipitation possibly falling around here, not guessing much will stick around. Going to be quite the wake up call to winter. Cold, snowy, and all around rather raw conditions. Driving in the morning might be a fun one since people seemingly lose any ability to drive with the first snows around here.

[Tom]

Snap some pics and vids up there during the windy/snowy scenery!

[jaster220]

Now, it looks like more heavier rains are forecast in my area with this system, whereas, couple days ago, it seemed like it was going to be a weaker storm for my region.

 

KBTL needs 0.89" more to set an all-time wettest month. Would replace Sept '08 and our massive hit by hurricane Ike which currently holds the record. I was told Marshall had 13" from Ike (I was in Europe for several wks when it hit) but there's no official records kept in Marshall. 

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM still pushing the heavier totals eastward. Fun system to watch unfold.

[Stormgeek]

This system means business up on the MN/ND border. Reports of snow and winds gusting 50+! Too bad blizzard warnings are gone now...

[Stormgeek]

18z NAM still pushing the heavier totals eastward. Fun system to watch unfold.

Was just looking at that; showing around 4 for MSP... Maybe Tom's reference to last years bad winter will get closer than we thought. Doubt that it all sticks around, but nonetheless storms trending this way will be much appreciated after what transpired last cold season.

[St Paul Storm]

Winter Weather Advisory expanded one row of counties eastward. Minneapolis now included.

[St Paul Storm]

This system means business up on the MN/ND border. Reports of snow and winds gusting 50+! Too bad blizzard warnings are gone now...

Actually the Blizzard Warning is still going to be used. The Blizzard Watch was nixed as part of the simplification. The simplification isn’t so simple....

[jaster220]

Winter Weather Advisory expanded one row of counties eastward. Minneapolis now included.

And while this again will be mostly RN for the UP of Mich, if had been just a bit colder this would be the 2nd bliz in 3 days for parts of that region. That's nuts right there! And we're not talking minimal qpf here, both Max zones had or expect to have 3+ inches liquid equiv.

[jaster220]

Is that blue I spy ovva SWMI??

 

I'll be home in Marshall then, have to see if any can penetrate this far inland? 2013 since I had more than -SHSN in Oct.

 

 

 

Actually GRR used the word SNOW several times in their pm AFD. Even mentioning ground coatings beginning early Sat.

Edited October 27, 2017 by jaster220

[St Paul Storm]

Temps running a bit lower than forecasted. Already down to 34 with a mix of rain and snow well in advance of the main precipitation. Temps were only supposed to get down to 38 tonight. We’ll see if temps pop back up a bit after this pocket of precip ends.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The HRRR model brings a band of light snow / flurries in tomorrow morning here. I'll take anything i can get, even seeing one flake would be nice.

[Minny_Weather]

The HRRR model brings a band of light snow / flurries in tomorrow morning here. I'll take anything i can get, even seeing one flake would be nice.

I'll be in Ashland outside the entire day tomorrow. Nothing is worse than being in cloudy, cold, windy weather without a flake. I have hopes for a flurry still.

[Stormgeek]

Already snowing and winds picking up here in the north metro, looks to be down around 34 right now.

[NEJeremy]

[Minny_Weather]

[St Paul Storm]

33° and snow. Not accumulating on the ground yet, but was starting to stack up on the car. Good stuff.

[Tom]

How's the scene up there in MN???

[St Paul Storm]

How's the scene up there in MN???

We posted at the same time. Ha! Fatty flakes are flying here on the east side of Minneapolis. Ground is wet from the rain overnight and temps are still a tick above 32, so accumulating snow is going to be minimal unless some really heavy stuff falls. Awesome that the first snow is much more than a few random flakes. It’s snowing pretty good out there. Pics later if the snow really picks up.

[Minny_Weather]

Friend in Delano says it's ripping pretty hard there. Thin band centered over them.

[St Paul Storm]

Friend in Delano says it's ripping pretty hard there. Thin band centered over them.

Yep looks like the intense band is right over that area now, slowly shifting towards the cities. Should be fun for a bit when it hits.

 

Edit: MPX just bumped totals from around an inch to 1-3” here today.

[Tom]

I just saw a video on Twitter from Goodridge, MN  and it looked like a legit Blizzard out there yesterday!  Wow, that scene looked wild out there.  i'll try to find it and post it on here...