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November 2017 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we approach the end of the 2nd fastest cooling month, we are about to embark on a journey through THE fastest cooling month in about a week.  I phrased it as a journey, well, because I believe this month may have just about everything you can ask for if your a weather enthusiast.  By the time this month is finished, there will have been much that had been discussed and experienced throughout the sub forum.  With that being said, let's discuss the possibilities of what nature may deliver for us next month.

 

Of late, we have experienced a dramatic flip as the atmosphere has began it's seasonal transition into the cold season...in great fashion I may add.  Noteworthy blocking has sprung and storms have been plentiful.  Will this continue???  Data is suggesting an extremely tight baro zone to develop as the month opens across the central CONUS.  Canada will flood with early season Arctic air and there are signs of weakness with the PV.  The odds of a Fast Start to Winter is increasing with each passing day.

 

Let's dive in...

 

12z EPS suggest the opening 5 days will be cold from the central Plains/Midwest/Lakes...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102512/noram/eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_276.png

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I hate to be a buzzkill, but IIRC last november started out really strong and it suddenly just flipped. Is there some way to be aware of a flip like that happening again? Or is it just a big fluke that it happened last year.

Everything is looking better than last year that's for sure.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I hate to be a buzzkill, but IIRC last november started out really strong and it suddenly just flipped. Is there some way to be aware of a flip like that happening again? Or is it just a big fluke that it happened last year.

Last year we had a raging PAC plowing into the PAC NW, weak blocking signals, trough centered in the GOA, westerly QBO and much different pattern overall in Oct compared to this year. Sure, you may get a -PNA to develop and allow some warmth to come into the picture at times this month but I don’t think a torch is on the table. EC peeps may see endless Summer come back for a little while.

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I hate to be a buzzkill, but IIRC last november started out really strong and it suddenly just flipped. Is there some way to be aware of a flip like that happening again? Or is it just a big fluke that it happened last year.

 

 

Last year we had a raging PAC plowing into the PAC NW, weak blocking signals, trough centered in the GOA, westerly QBO and much different pattern overall in Oct compared to this year. Sure, you may get a -PNA to develop and allow some warmth to come into the picture at times this month but I don’t think a torch is on the table. EC peeps may see endless Summer continue for a little while.

Tom is by far the best when it comes to digesting the LRC; and he is dead on with this saying. Last year we had no blocking, raging pacific jet coming into PAC NW, and a positive AO. Biggest thing, at least from my observations in the past 10 years I have been following the LRC, is to watch for systems rounding the base in and around the four corners region or have them dig coming out of the NW flow. When the pattern is progressive, as it has been for way too long, storms don't have a chance to dig as they round the base of the trough. What I have been seeing in the models is a lot of storms digging in the central part of the states, and blocking both upstream and downstream. That should lead to storms going negative tilted, bowling balls, and pan handle hookers. Good for all to the east of the rockies!!! 

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I'm tracking a rather large storm system into the N Rockies around the 11/5-11/7 period that will likely be a hard cutter.  The Tropical storm Saola that is forecast to track to the east of Japan eventually makes it into the Sea of Okhotsk and forms into a major system.  This location of the trough argues for very cold air to build in SW Canada Week 2 which the models are all jumping on. 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017102600/noram/eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_336.png

 

 

 

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Looking beyond the Week 2 period, into the targeted period around 11/11 where the pattern becomes very active and possibly more wintry as the pattern may shift a little farther south in the central CONUS.  Notice how the trough will be replaced by ridging in the extended period north of Japan.  This is a key indicator that what we may eventually see is the trough in SW Canada may shift farther east and be replaced by more ridging as well as across NW NAMER.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_5.png

 

 

Week 2 replaced by ridge....

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_12.png

 

 

 

In today's JMA weeklies, it is somewhat agreeing to this pattern with a trough in SW Canada Week 2, but then Week's 3 & 4 things change and we can see colder air making its way into the central CONUS.

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JMA weeklies suggest, be weary of the 2016-17 "look" the GEFS/EPS are suggest during the opening week of November, because it's prob only a temporary period where nature reloads the pattern.  Climatologically speaking, it's natural for the north to get the snows first and build the snow pack up there.  TBH, you can't ask for anything more so that there are no "snow holes" as we roll into winter.  Cold air will have more fighting power as it builds in Canada and eventually makes its way south.

 

 

JMA trending colder for November....

 

 

 

 

DNDaLJGVwAAmhkK.jpg

 

 

 

JMA not buying into the strong riding across the south/east thru Nov 10th (I'd say take a blend of the JMA/EPS)...what a temp gradient and active storm track we will see across the central CONUS.  Fun times ahead.

 

DNDa_ZWVwAAnhQy.jpg

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@ Tom

 

That last JMA map seems cold enough to get all of us north of the Mason-Dixon some flakes. Wow, when's the last time we've seen this pattern this early? 2000 perhaps?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

That last JMA map seems cold enough to get all of us north of the Mason-Dixon some flakes. Wow, when's the last time we've seen this pattern this early? 2000 perhaps?

TBH, I don't really remember much of the '00-'01 season as I was a Freshman at SIUC down in Carbondale, IL.  I do remember how cold it was that season even down as far south as I was in S IL.  We had several good snow systems that year and one that I remember vividly was in the middle of December while I was driving home with one of my gf's for the Christmas break.  We took I-57 N and got hit pretty good in C IL and made it back home to a few inches of new snow OTG.  Other than that, I didn't pay much attention to the models or the overall wx pattern.

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TBH, I don't really remember much of the '00-'01 season as I was a Freshman at SIUC down in Carbondale, IL.  I do remember how cold it was that season even down as far south as I was in S IL.  We had several good snow systems that year and one that I remember vividly was in the middle of December while I was driving home with one of my gf's for the Christmas break.  We took I-57 N and got hit pretty good in C IL and made it back home to a few inches of new snow OTG.  Other than that, I didn't pay much attention to the models or the overall wx pattern.

 

Not sure how available they were back then tbh? I had internet in the late 90's when I relocated to S. Bend, but wasn't aware of Wx forums if they existed back then. I think the first one I stumbled on was Accuwx's circa '02. I do remember when the Dec '00 bliz hit, I was still just getting my wx via local news Met's and my trusty NOAA Wx radio  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not sure how available they were back then tbh? I had internet in the late 90's when I relocated to S. Bend, but wasn't aware of Wx forums if they existed back then. I think the first one I stumbled on was Accuwx's circa '02. I do remember when the Dec '00 bliz hit, I was still just getting my wx via local news Met's and my trusty NOAA Wx radio  ;)

Yup, I was getting my info via Tom Skilling and TWC!   :D

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Yup, I was getting my info via Tom Skilling and TWC!   :D

 

Tom was "da man" back when "da Bears" were champs. Especially when it came to S Lakes region wx. First caught him on WGN cable when the '82 Denver bliz was happening..those were the days of lore, Dec '87 storm, etc

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Geeze, what a thermal gradient setting up across our sub forum to open up the first 10 days of November with multiple waves riding up along it!

Except here.

 

We'll see how trends go. I'd much rather get cold rain than no precip at all. At least cold rain is indicative of moisture.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Weather appears to remain cold in the long term and becomes cloudy with possible Winter Precip.

 

 

eMDJIK2.png

 

 

LYvWq0w.png

 

 

3e6dhJq.png

 

Why can't I see those maps??  :huh: I see they're PNG's and I get an error msg when I use that type. Have to re-save as JPG's 

 

Tom? (using Chrome at work office)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Why can't I see those maps??  :huh: I see they're PNG's and I get an error msg when I use that type. Have to re-save as JPG's 

 

Tom? (using Chrome at work office)

I use Chrome and can see his images...

 

Meantime, this is a nice progression of the ever building snow pack across Canada and the lower 48 through 11/11....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017102612/384/snod.conus.png

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That map clearly states 1/2" for my area within that timeframe. From the looks of Canada, plenty of cold air bottled up there just waiting to come down in our neck of the woods and freeze us up.

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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Except here.

 

We'll see how trends go. I'd much rather get cold rain than no precip at all. At least cold rain is indicative of moisture.

 

Yeah man. Like I said in my winter forecast, even though it was a joke, I really think this year is going to be a repeat of 08-09' and 13-14'. I don't care if it's rain either, I just want precip. When it's consistently dry outside is when it's the absolute worst. Plus, I swear, wind advisories are always a dead give away here. When we get wind advisories and no precip, but half this forum is talking about how much they got, that's just a sign lol.

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@ Jaster

 

Remember last Winter or the previous one (cant remember which) where one of the models was showing a huge amount of snowfall for our region...something like 2 to 3ft and then :lol: , only to take it back couple days later. :lol: :wacko:

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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I use Chrome and can see his images...

 

Meantime, this is a nice progression of the ever building snow pack across Canada and the lower 48 through 11/11....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017102612/384/snod.conus.png

 

Perfect gradient vector! Exactly like the (imho) better seasonal outlooks have called for, including Craig's:

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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how well does your area do?

Idk because it only goes to 6am on 11/11. But at that point, we're on the rain side of the rain/snow line. It's close. Something else to consider: Could there be a risk of an ice storm somewhere? There's a nice amount of pink on there.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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@ Jaster

 

Remember last Winter or the previous one (cant remember which) where one of the models was showing a huge amount of snowfall for our region...something like 2 to 3ft and then :lol: , only to take it back couple days later. :lol: :wacko:

 

:lol:  :lol: That sounds like the Euro with 32" over Detroit for like one single run! So many of those I lose track tbh  :rolleyes: Thought I maybe saved a map, but didn't find it.  :wacko:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Idk because it only goes to 6am on 11/11. But at that point, we're on the rain side of the rain/snow line. It's close. Something else to consider: Could there be a risk of an ice storm somewhere? There's a nice amount of pink on there.

 

Wrong time of year. At least over here, to get a legit Ice event, we have to have cold ground to aid in keeping near-surface temps at or just below freezing. Not saying that's true out where you're at ofc. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wrong time of year. At least over here, to get a legit Ice event, we have to have cold ground to aid in keeping near-surface temps at or just below freezing. Not saying that's true out where you're at ofc. 

Yeah I'm talking about here in the Plains. Plus with the overall below average temps expected over the future, would not be surprising.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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:lol:  :lol: That sounds like the Euro with 32" over Detroit for like one single run! So many of those I lose track tbh  :rolleyes: Thought I maybe saved a map, but didn't find it.  :wacko:

Can you imagine we really get something like that this Winter! :o :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2024 -25 for Metro Detroit Area 

 

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Can you imagine we really get something like that this Winter! :o :blink:

With all the moisture going around, I could see a 1-Dec-74 on 'roids happening. Or the Great Appalachain storm bumped half a state north. Nevva say nevva!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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