November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Just read Marks new post. I love his level headedededness. Is it his age Jesse?

 

He definitely gripes about the rain more than he used to. Hating your hometown's climo for half the year seems pretty levelheaded.

[High Desert Mat!]

He definitely gripes about the rain more than he used to. Hating your hometown's climo for half the year seems pretty levelheaded.

I wouldn't say he hates his climate since that's the main reason he moved to the west end of the gorge. I meant he's pretty down to earth when it comes to everyone screaming and wishcasting snow when it's prettt borderline most of the time. You and Mark just have a little too much love hate sh$t going on.

[Phil]

Screenshot_20171107-153355.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW

 

 

 

Wow x2

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He definitely gripes about the rain more than he used to. Hating your hometown's climo for half the year seems pretty levelheaded.

 

Didn't see any griping in that post.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow x2

 

Wowzers!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Doesn't look particularly windy at My Location.

That sux i guess you wont be getting any free items tumbling into your yard anytime soon.

[Deweydog]

That sux i guess you wont be getting any free items tumbling into your yard anytime soon.

Last winter was special.

[Phil]

New EPS monthlies are out. The last few runs have trended into a backloaded winter (verbatim) but super cold in February and March. Also warm in December, average/dry in January.

 

December: Warm/Dry, ridge west, trough east.

 

January: Cold across most of the US except the SE and SW states...huge Plains trough with deep cold centered over the Dakotas and Minnesota. SE ridge strengthens.

 

February: Cold west, blowtorch plains and east coast. Big trough on the west coast. Lots of precip too..looks like an Andrew wet dream.

 

March. Coldest anomaly centered right over Seattle, lol. Huge trough anomaly in the NW US.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

New EPS monthlies are out. The last few runs have trended into a backloaded winter (verbatim) but super cold in February and March. Also warm in December, average/dry in January.

 

December: Warm/Dry, ridge west, trough east.

 

January: Cold across most of the US except the SE and SW states...huge Plains trough with deep cold centered over the Dakotas and Minnesota. SE ridge strengthens.

 

February: Cold west, blowtorch plains and east coast. Big trough on the west coast. Lots of precip too..looks like an Andrew wet dream.

 

March. Coldest anomaly centered right over Seattle, lol. Huge trough anomaly in the NW US.

 

Wow that sounds fantastic. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Phil]

[Phil]

[HardDrinkinLincoln]

I thought it would be interesting to see how this fall heating season (beginning Oct. 1) compares to the last two years.  I've plotted accumulated daily heating-degrees from the local Agrimet station here.  This fall is starting out much cooler than 2016 and much much cooler than 2015.

[Front Ranger]

New EPS monthlies are out. The last few runs have trended into a backloaded winter (verbatim) but super cold in February and March. Also warm in December, average/dry in January.

 

December: Warm/Dry, ridge west, trough east.

 

January: Cold across most of the US except the SE and SW states...huge Plains trough with deep cold centered over the Dakotas and Minnesota. SE ridge strengthens.

 

February: Cold west, blowtorch plains and east coast. Big trough on the west coast. Lots of precip too..looks like an Andrew wet dream.

 

March. Coldest anomaly centered right over Seattle, lol. Huge trough anomaly in the NW US.

 

Sounds 1950-51ish.

[HighlandExperience]

This winter Seattle will get 75 inches of snow.

[Phil]

Sounds 1950-51ish.

Yeah, does have an early 1950s vibe, with a little 1980s mixed in too. #flavor

[Phil]

Oh, and soon the *seasonal* ECMWF data will be publicly available! About d**n time.

 

Will be on this site:

http://climate.copernicus.eu/s/charts/c3s_seasonal/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z looks ACTIVE

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z is very active with some great snow pack building weather! Looks to be a promising ski season

[Gradient Keeper]

Massive butt load of snow above 3000'

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 384 looks amazing for BLI - North.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Massive butt load of snow above 3000'

 

[snow_wizard]

I continue to be amazed by the lack of low pressure being depicted over most of the NE for the next two weeks.  The positive anomalies out there have been extremely persistent and robust for weeks now.

[HighlandExperience]

I continue to be amazed by the lack of low pressure being depicted over most of the NE for the next two weeks. The positive anomalies out there have been extremely persistent and robust for weeks now.

We are going to get slammed

[Gradient Keeper]

I continue to be amazed by the lack of low pressure being depicted over most of the NE for the next two weeks.  The positive anomalies out there have been extremely persistent and robust for weeks now.

Yeah, looking at the jet/250mb, the Pacific is basically shut down for business. The westerlies don't look overly energetic and at times very weak, disorganized. Blocking over the North Pacific/western Gulf of Alaska/Aleutians is most dominant. NW-NNW flow into OR/WA.

[Phil]

We are going to get slammed

With drizzle!

[Phil]

And clouds.

[Phil]

And snow. Lots and lots of snow.

[Deweydog]

Gloomy snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Murky snow.

[HighlandExperience]

And snow. Lots and lots of snow.

Heavy wet snow. Thick as concrete

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I continue to be amazed by the lack of low pressure being depicted over most of the NE for the next two weeks.  The positive anomalies out there have been extremely persistent and robust for weeks now.

 

How about the end of that 0z GEM? There's a nice pocket of very cold air building up in the sweet spot and pattern that's generally conductive to delivering it southward.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

How about the end of that 0z GEM? There's a nice pocket of very cold air building up in the sweet spot and pattern that's generally conductive to delivering it southward.

 

 

Agreed. The overall pattern is really close.

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

That black hole east of Greenland tho..

Just a wee bit of cyclogenesis occurring there.

[Tenochtitlan]

This winter Seattle will get 75 inches of snow.

I like trying to imagine this actually happening. Seattle has a ton of transplants these days who have never seen any more than several inches of snow fall in their city, and the traffic situation there is awful, worse than it was in 2008. Seattle must have one of the largest ratios between its greatest possible seasonal snowfall total and average total, of any city in the US. Even if the city used salt like they didn't in 2008, yeah, in the case of a historically snowy winter it would be a complete shitshow.

[snow_wizard]

I like trying to imagine this actually happening. Seattle has a ton of transplants these days who have never seen any more than several inches of snow fall in their city, and the traffic situation there is awful, worse than it was in 2008. Seattle must have one of the largest ratios between its greatest possible seasonal snowfall total and average total, of any city in the US. Even if the city used salt like they didn't in 2008, yeah, in the case of a historically snowy winter it would be a complete shitshow.

 

It will be something to behold alright.  Going into this sequence of very low solar cycles we may once again see snowy winters here on a somewhat regular basis.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, looking at the jet/250mb, the Pacific is basically shut down for business. The westerlies don't look overly energetic and at times very weak, disorganized. Blocking over the North Pacific/western Gulf of Alaska/Aleutians is most dominant. NW-NNW flow into OR/WA.

 

Historically speaking long periods of blockiness over the NE Pacific in October or October/ November almost always blow up into a frigid mega block a ways down the road.  This year is as blocky as it has ever been out there at least back to 1948.  One thing that's really exciting is 1948 had one of the strongest positive anomalies over the NE Pacific for Oct / Nov, and 1949 had the second strongest positive for October (third after this year).  Those two are tied for the coldest winters ever recorded for the NW...at least since 1900.

[luvssnow_spokane]

ECMWF HOUR 216. Seriously chilly to our north... BRING IT!!