November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[crf450ish]

Um

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where is everybody?

[ShawniganLake]

Um

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where is everybody?

Waiting for something exciting.

[Deweydog]

Um

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where is everybody?

Attaching snow plows to their commute vehicles.

[Jesse]

Today was a degree below average!

[Geos]

Today was a really nice day. Nice and dry. High of 51, now down to 39 here.

[Geos]

Pretty wet and snowy the next 10 days.

 

 

[Phil]

What a flip from last November, so far.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0483B495-EB1F-4941-99B4-5CAAE4079BC2_zpsmrjw3uim.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3D61E27C-04A5-4620-A434-5306E671BFC9_zpsrdb7ose5.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It did not freeze at Tims house.

[crf450ish]

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS shows a brief GOA low about a week out and then high pressure out there again.  It's becoming obvious high pressure in that region is going to be the default this winter.

 

I'm very pleased at the surprise chilly night we are having.  Already down to 36 here.

[snow_wizard]

00z WRF shows an area just north of Seattle with almost 60 mph gusts around noon on Monday.

 

This will be a non event for the EPSL.  The gradient is too southerly.

[snow_wizard]

What a flip from last November, so far.

 

 

 

That area of cold anomalies is classic.  Pretty much the look of our best winters.

[Gradient Keeper]

[snow_wizard]

It did not freeze at Tims house.

 

[Jesse]

It’s been nothing at PDX for over four hours.

[snow_wizard]

It’s been nothing at PDX for over four hours.

 

A lot of dead stations up here too.

 

Looks like I had the perfect storm for a cheap cold day here today.  Dead winds and low clouds kept the max at 46 and then it cleared up just before sunset which has allowed the temp to drop to 35 now.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF actually isn't half bad.  Quite blocky right through the run.  Perfect inversion scenario late in the run.  This surface pressure map at day 8 is insane!  Normally November is the lowest pressure month over the NE Pacific, but here there isn't a low of significance to be seen.

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The ECMWF actually isn't half bad.  Quite blocky right through the run.  Perfect inversion scenario late in the run.  This surface pressure map at day 8 is insane!  Normally November is the lowest pressure month over the NE Pacific, but here there isn't a low of significance to be seen.

No westerlies on this run

[snow_wizard]

The sun has been spotless for the entire month of November so far and the raido flux is down to 66.  64 or so is the lowest it ever got during the last solar minimum.

[wx_statman]

Wow. The -14*F in International Falls, MN this morning is the coldest ever recorded this early in the season.

 

Considering records extend back to 1897, that's impressive!

 

The -5 in Duluth also tied the pre-11/12 early season record, also -5 on 11/8/2003. 

[snow_wizard]

The -5 in Duluth also tied the pre-11/12 early season record, also -5 on 11/8/2003. 

 

Another year that had something good to offer during the winter.  Yet another one that got hit in early January also.

[crf450ish]

The 0z GFS shows a brief GOA low about a week out and then high pressure out there again. It's becoming obvious high pressure in that region is going to be the default this winter.

 

That’ll be nice not having to wait forever for a reload.

[ShawniganLake]

NAM takes Monday’s low across the southern tip of Vancouver Island at 985-987mb. Definitely some strong wind potential to the south of that track.

[Jesse]

That’ll be nice not having to wait forever for a reload.

Yeah, waiting more than a couple weeks between major arctic outbreaks is one of the worst parts of our winter climate.

[TT-SEA]

It did not freeze at Tims house.

 

Low of 39 last night... up to 48 already.    Still waiting!   

 

Zero chance over the next 10 days it appears.

[MossMan]

Got down to 37 last night. Currently 42 with a light shower.

[snow_wizard]

NAM takes Monday’s low across the southern tip of Vancouver Island at 985-987mb. Definitely some strong wind potential to the south of that track.

 

Of some interest to you could be the low expected to swing through Wednesday night.  The backwash could be cold enough for some snow on southern Vancouver Island.  Small changes in the track could expand that area.

[snow_wizard]

Got down to 37 last night. Currently 42 with a light shower.

 

I finally had a colder low than you!  Dropped to 35 here.  I was pleasantly surprised by that chill last night.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty D**n impressive looking at the blocking progged in the 160 to 170 range after the mega block we had earlier in the month at 150.  Every low that tries to form over the GOA gets booted out after a short time.  Epic cold coming in all likelihood.

[snow_wizard]

Low of 39 last night... up to 48 already.    Still waiting!   

 

Zero chance over the next 10 days it appears.

 

May well be for your area.  The cold pockets should have some chances early in week two.

[TT-SEA]

May well be for your area.  The cold pockets should have some chances early in week two.

 

Well... if the rain and clouds move out then it will probably freeze here as well.   

 

12Z GFS shows daily systems and rain in each 6 hour period for the next 10 days though.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I don't take much stock in really long range models, and this is ridiculously extreme, but just for fun, here is last nights 18Z CFS run for December.

 

[kokaneekidz]

I don't take much stock in really long range models, and this is ridiculously extreme, but just for fun, here is last nights 18Z CFS run for December.

 

DOXOWfJXkAAnzei.jpg

If that verifies I will commute to work on a snowmobile down 405

[Phil]

Sorry for excessive OT posts, but DCA actually tied a record low last night.

 

I can't believe it. That NEVER happens anymore.

[Timmy]

Sorry for OT, but DCA actually tied a record low last night.

 

That NEVER happens anymore. I can't believe it.

that sounds neat. probably even more neat if i knew where DCA was.

[Phil]

That area of cold anomalies is classic. Pretty much the look of our best winters.

Yeah, the NPAC is very 1950s-esque right now.

 

The UV200 (jet) is almost nonexistent. Weak, messy, broken, in pieces, etc. #blocking

[Phil]

that sounds neat. probably even more neat if i knew where DCA was.

The national swamp.

[Timmy]

The national swamp.

#draintheswamp

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like rain and mountain snow coming up. Must be November!

[MossMan]

Looks like rain and mountain snow coming up. Must be November!

And hopefully some wind as well!