November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[crf450ish]

 

Sustained at 50mph, gusted to 62mph just minutes ago in Ocean Shores. #wawx @guyinjeep16 @NWSSeattle @ScottSKOMO @komonews #TeslaChase pic.twitter.com/w4Mj2DW2Qy

— Benjamin Jurkovich (@BenjaminJurkovi) November 13, 2017

 

Good kite flying weather right there!

[Phil]

Windy in the mountains is normal here too. 104mph at white pass just this morning.

At least you guys still have working anemometers up there, haha. Three out of the four weather stations here above 4000ft currently have failed anemometers, thanks to high winds. I'm actually ticked off at the lackadaisical attitude towards maintaining those stations in recent years.

 

But yeah, I didn't mean to start a wind competition, but as a landscaper/arborist who's always busting his a** cleaning up after high wind events, it bugs me a bit when our wind climo is trolled by out-of-regioners.

 

At least when comparing to SEA to IAD/DCA, we kick the pants off you guys in winter windstorm prowess. Like, it's not even close.

[Jesse]

At least you guys still have working anemometers up there, haha. Three out of the four weather stations here above 4000ft currently have failed anemometers, thanks to high winds. I'm actually ticked off at the lackadaisical attitude towards maintaining those stations in recent years.

 

But yeah, I didn't mean to start a wind competition, but as a landscaper/arborist who's always busting his a** cleaning up after high wind events, it bugs me a bit when our wind climo is trolled by out-of-regioners.

 

At least when comparing to SEA to IAD/DCA, we kick the pants off you guys in winter windstorm prowess. Like, it's not even close.

If you really want to get down to the reality of things, I suggest you look at the point forecasts near the summit of some of our volcanos.

[High Desert Mat!]

Windy in the mountains is normal here too. 104mph at white pass just this morning.

And don't forget about crown point in the gorge at what 1000'? Frequent gusts over 100 mph every winter. Sustained in the 80's is pretty common too.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wind has died down and there has been no rain so far during the daylight hours here.    Looking at the radar... that will change soon.

 

 

Looks like there are some patches of yellow grass? Clearly that area has not seen enough rain this fall.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Looks like there are some patches of yellow grass? Clearly that area has not seen enough rain this fall.

 

I need to get the sprinklers out!   

[MossMan]

Not to add to the whole major fall foliage controversy but at least in my area it seems like things are progressing pretty much normally up here. What sticks out to me in the past was how many trees still had their leaves back in Nov. 1996 when we had nearly a foot of snow right before Thanksgiving if I remember correctly, and again just after Thanksgiving 2006 when we had nearly 18” of very wet snow which snapped almost every Alder tree in my area!

[Phil]

If you really want to get down to the reality of things, I suggest you look at the point forecasts near the summit of some of our volcanos.

Check out the point and click forecast for Mt. Washington.

 

Kicks the panties off the summit of Mt. Rainier, despite being only half as tall.

[Jesse]

Check out the point and click forecast for Mt. Washington.

 

Kicks the panties off the summit of Mt. Rainier, despite being only half as tall.

 

We've been down this road Phil. That just isn't true. It won't hurt your region's prowess to just swallow that pill and move on. The lowlands out there definitely beat us in the cold/snow and severe WX department. I will give you that.

[TT-SEA]

Not to add to the whole major fall foliage controversy but at least in my area it seems like things are progressing pretty much normally up here. What sticks out to me in the past was how many trees still had their leaves back in Nov. 1996 when we had nearly a foot of snow right before Thanksgiving if I remember correctly, and again just after Thanksgiving 2006 when we had nearly 18” of very wet snow which snapped almost every Alder tree in my area!

 

We have lots of alders here... they are like weeds!    They can go from sapling to full tree in about 2 years.   I don't like them... they just go from green to bare with no fall color.  

[Tenochtitlan]

Yeah, our wind climo is fickle, but statistically speaking it's definitely higher than SEA's.

 

IAD (Dulles Intl) has hit 109mph, 79mph, and 74mph (during the cold season) just since 2007, with several mid/upper 60s over that span as well. The highest I can find at SEA is one day with a 65mph gust. Meh..

OK, but like, for another somewhat meaningless battle of airports, the average highest gust for the last five winters in Bellingham has been 61, while at Boston Logan it has been 55. SEA isn't very windy. I think Portland tends to be the windier big city of the PNW, and probably Vancouver as well.

[Phil]

We've been down this road Phil. That just isn't true. It won't hurt your region's prowess to just swallow that pill and move on. The lowlands out there definitely beat us in the cold/snow and severe WX department. I will give you that.

Facts are facts.

 

Even with no major storms in the area, this is the current two day forecast @ Mt. Washington. Sustained at 74mph, gusting to 93mph.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/084AF3EE-7DAD-4A6E-8D8F-A0F753518DEC_zpsil0jm8hi.jpg

[Jesse]

Here's the two day forecast for Mt. Washington.

 

Sustained at 74mph, gusting to 93mph. No major storms in the area, either.

 

 

Yes Phil, very impressive. Mount Washington is the most impressive peak of all time. All 5,000 feet of it. I heard that people take the sherpa-operated trolley to the top to train for Everest. And that the grounds of the picnic area and gift shop are littered with the bones of climbers. 

[Phil]

Yes Phil, very impressive. Mount Washington is the most impressive peak of all time. All 5,000 feet of it. I heard that people take the sherpa-operated trolley to the top to train for Everest.

Not the most impressive peak, but it's definitely *windier* than Rainier, for topographic reasons. Unless both the point-and-click data and high resolution mesoscale models are mysteriously wrong.

[TT-SEA]

Not the most impressive peak, but it's definitely *windier* than Rainier. Unless both the point-and-click data and mesoscale models are mysteriously wrong.

 

Do not ever challenge the PNW!  Some people take it very personally.   

[ShawniganLake]

Facts are facts.

 

Even with no major storms in the area, this is the current two day forecast @ Mt. Washington. Sustained at 74mph, gusting to 93mph.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/084AF3EE-7DAD-4A6E-8D8F-A0F753518DEC_zpsil0jm8hi.jpg

That’s pretty windy. I’d be more impressed with that place if they actually knew what a heavy snowfall was.

[Jesse]

Do not ever challenge the PNW! Some people take it very personally.

What he’s saying isn’t factual. And we’ve had this entire discussion before, in which he ended up admitting that Rainier is likely windier overall. Feels like deja vù.

[WeatherArchive]

What was the wind gusts for Salem? It didn't seem that much more then some strong breezes.

[Phil]

Do not ever challenge the PNW! Some people take it very personally.

Technically I instigated this one. Rainier is colder and snowier than Washington, but it's definitely not windier, for topographic reasons. Despite Jesse's unsubstantiated denials.

[Phil]

What he’s saying isn’t factual. And we’ve had this entire discussion before, in which he ended up admitting that Rainier is likely windier overall. Feels like deja vù.

Wrong. That was a discussion on temperature, not wind speed.

 

I know this is a soft spot for you, but facts are facts.

[BLI snowman]

We've been down this road Phil. That just isn't true. It won't hurt your region's prowess to just swallow that pill and move on. The lowlands out there definitely beat us in the cold/snow and severe WX department. I will give you that.

 

Low elevation places like the gorge own the Mid Atlantic for cold/snow, too.

[BLI snowman]

29mph so far at PDX. Surprised my power is still on.

[Jesse]

Wrong. That was a discussion on temperature, not wind speed.

 

I know this is a soft spot for you, but facts are facts.

No Phil, that one was also about wind speed.

[ShawniganLake]

Mt Washington, BC is receiving a heavy sideways snowfall this afternoon.

 

Cooler than I was expecting today. Sitting at just 43F here all day.

 

https://www.mountwashington.ca/tube-cam.html

[Phil]

No Phil, that one was also about wind speed.

Wind speed was discussed too, at which point you slithered away when the point-and-click data was posted.

 

Again, I know it bothers you, but the streamflow acceleration over the white mountains is well accepted meteorology.

[Phil]

Low elevation places like the gorge own the Mid Atlantic for cold/snow, too.

Haha, 90% of the country owns us in the snowfall department.

 

I'd be interested in browsing some of the snowfall data from stations in the gorge. Any good ones you'd recommend?

[Phil]

That’s pretty windy. I’d be more impressed with that place if they actually knew what a heavy snowfall was.

Yeah, not a very snowy mountain. No real moisture source at that latitude.

 

The winds are fascinating, though. They observed gusts to 131mph as recently as October 30th.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Found this here  http://www.summitpost.org/interesting-weather-statistics-for-us-mountain-summits/171585 Now, to be fair, the Rainier data is for the summit, where nobody is really there, except briefly for climbers, where Mt. Washington is much more accessible, and there is a full time crew at the Observatory.  And Rainier's data is interpolated from actual data coming from Camp Muir.

 

"Unfortunately, wind speed data is hard to obtain for most of these mountains. Of all these mountains, Mount Washington is the only one with long term wind data.

Other than wind data for Mount Washington, I could also find it for Pikes Peak, Mount Evans, and Longs Peak in Colorado, plus Camp Muir in Washington. Longs Peak and Mount Washington are about the same in wind speed and both are significantly windier than Pikes Peak. Mount Evans compares fairly well with Longs Peak and Mount Washington, but the extreme wind speeds are much lower.  Mount Rainier might be the windiest place in the lower 48, but average wind speeds come from an interpolation, rather than measured data.

Mount Washington had a record wind gust of 231 mph in April 1934. Longs Peak had a record wind gust of 201 mph in 1981, but the station only lasted a short time. During the period of record, Pikes Peak had an estimated maximum wind gust of 150 mph, but the anemometer blew away 112 mph.  Mount Evans has recorded wind speeds of  123 mph (some sources report a gust of 150+ mph, but I can't find when this was recorded), which is significantly less than that of Mount Washington or Longs Peak, but the period of record for the maximum wind gust was only 1994-1996.   Had the period of record  been longer, the maximum wind gust would likely be higher.   2000 feet lower than Longs Peak, Trail Ridge, north of Longs Peak has recorded gusts of 157 mph, also in 1981. Hidden Peak (Utah) next to Mount Baldy has recorded wind speeds of 124 mph, but wind readings are only taken sporadically.  Supposedly Grandfather Mountain recorded a 200 mph wind gust in January 2006, but this is not an official figure since the roof of the building on which the gauge was placed was suspected to have an amplifying effect.  The highest official wind speed on Grandfather Mountain was 121 mph in December 2012. Computer models have predicted that maximum wind gust on Denali have exceeded 300 mph (such as during the storm that wiped out the Wilcox Expedition), but of course such a figure is a calculated estimate rather than an actual measurement.

Unfortunately, Long Peak doesn’t have any temperature data compiled; only wind, so wind chills are hard to compare. More than likely, Long Peak is similar in temperatures to Pikes Peak, but a few degrees colder. 

 

The Camp Muir data comes from actual data from the weather station at Camp Muir, but no period of record is given.     The Mount Rainier wind data is an interpolation of the Camp Muir data.

 

Grandfather Mountain must have data for average wind speed somewhere, but I have been unable to find it. 

It seems no wind data is available for the other summits listed below. It would be interesting to see how windy the other high peaks in the Cascades or California are compared with the Rockies or Appalachians. 

 
Peak Average Wind Speed Mount Rainier 36.3 Mount Washington 35.3 Longs Peak 34.3 Mount Evans 31.5 Pikes Peak 21.2 Camp Muir 20.5

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

And to be fair to Phil, people in the PNW never have to worry about hurricanes.  

[MossMan]

We have lots of alders here... they are like weeds! They can go from sapling to full tree in about 2 years. I don't like them... they just go from green to bare with no fall color.

They are worse than weeds and were a constant battle to keep them under control at the golf course back in the day.

[Phil]

One should also be skeptical of any extreme wind readings that weren't recorded using an ultrasonic anemometer. Mechanical anemometers relying on the magnetic reed switch are notorious for producing erroneous wind speed data under extreme conditions, especially in low-pressure environments.

[Geos]

Bouy off West Point on Puget Sound blowing close to 50 mph now.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/WPOW1.html

 

Power has been flickering here at work in Bothell.

[Jesse]

 

Found this here http://www.summitpost.org/interesting-weather-statistics-for-us-mountain-summits/171585 Now, to be fair, the Rainier data is for the summit, where nobody is really there, except briefly for climbers, where Mt. Washington is much more accessible, and there is a full time crew at the Observatory. And Rainier's data is interpolated from actual data coming from Camp Muir.

 

"Unfortunately, wind speed data is hard to obtain for most of these mountains. Of all these mountains, Mount Washington is the only one with long term wind data.

 

Other than wind data for Mount Washington, I could also find it for Pikes Peak, Mount Evans, and Longs Peak in Colorado, plus Camp Muir in Washington. Longs Peak and Mount Washington are about the same in wind speed and both are significantly windier than Pikes Peak. Mount Evans compares fairly well with Longs Peak and Mount Washington, but the extreme wind speeds are much lower. Mount Rainier might be the windiest place in the lower 48, but average wind speeds come from an interpolation, rather than measured data.

 

Mount Washington had a record wind gust of 231 mph in April 1934. Longs Peak had a record wind gust of 201 mph in 1981, but the station only lasted a short time. During the period of record, Pikes Peak had an estimated maximum wind gust of 150 mph, but the anemometer blew away 112 mph. Mount Evans has recorded wind speeds of 123 mph (some sources report a gust of 150+ mph, but I can't find when this was recorded), which is significantly less than that of Mount Washington or Longs Peak, but the period of record for the maximum wind gust was only 1994-1996. Had the period of record been longer, the maximum wind gust would likely be higher. 2000 feet lower than Longs Peak, Trail Ridge, north of Longs Peak has recorded gusts of 157 mph, also in 1981. Hidden Peak (Utah) next to Mount Baldy has recorded wind speeds of 124 mph, but wind readings are only taken sporadically. Supposedly Grandfather Mountain recorded a 200 mph wind gust in January 2006, but this is not an official figure since the roof of the building on which the gauge was placed was suspected to have an amplifying effect. The highest official wind speed on Grandfather Mountain was 121 mph in December 2012. Computer models have predicted that maximum wind gust on Denali have exceeded 300 mph (such as during the storm that wiped out the Wilcox Expedition), but of course such a figure is a calculated estimate rather than an actual measurement.

 

Unfortunately, Long Peak doesn’t have any temperature data compiled; only wind, so wind chills are hard to compare. More than likely, Long Peak is similar in temperatures to Pikes Peak, but a few degrees colder.

 

The Camp Muir data comes from actual data from the weather station at Camp Muir, but no period of record is given. The Mount Rainier wind data is an interpolation of the Camp Muir data.

 

Grandfather Mountain must have data for average wind speed somewhere, but I have been unable to find it.

 

It seems no wind data is available for the other summits listed below. It would be interesting to see how windy the other high peaks in the Cascades or California are compared with the Rockies or Appalachians.

 

Peak Average Wind Speed Mount Rainier 36.3 Mount Washington 35.3 Longs Peak 34.3 Mount Evans 31.5 Pikes Peak 21.2 Camp Muir 20.5

Nice. Yeah I remember this same data being brought up last time.

[Jesse]

Wind speed was discussed too, at which point you slithered away when the point-and-click data was posted.

 

Again, I know it bothers you, but the streamflow acceleration over the white mountains is well accepted meteorology. I've studied this extensively over the last year or so. There is zero chance that the summit of Mt. Rainier is windier than that of Mt. Washington. Zero. Chance.

Slithered away? No need to get personal man.

 

I honestly feel like we’ve had this exact same debate several times.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

On another note, Michael Ventrice tweeted out an interesting graph about the differences between last night's Euro vs the 12Z Euro from today  He said "Uncharacteristically large changes in today's 12Z ECMWF EPS run by Forecast Day 10; Could be a buyer beware type of situation with regards to this evening's ECMWF Weekly model release."

 

Note, on this image, which is hour 258, this is the difference in the 500mb from last nights run not the actual anomalies.   Not sure what this means for temps, probably a bit cooler, maybe a lot more stormy?

 

 

[Jesse]

One should also be skeptical of any extreme wind readings that weren't recorded using an ultrasonic anemometer. Mechanical anemometers relying on the magnetic reed switch are notorious for producing erroneous wind speed data under extreme conditions, especially in low-pressure environments.

If you think about how high Mount Rainier is, it makes sense that it would be windier than Mount Washington. We are talking 14,410 feet in elevation.

 

I will admit that it is a somewhat unfair comparison since Rainier is about 2.5 times higher than Mount Washinton, but to say Mount Washington is the windier of the two sort of defies logic. It is what it is. And the fact that a long term weather station could under no circumstances be kept on the summit of Rainier, while on the summit of Washington you have several buildings and a visitor area that remains intact year to year, sort of speaks to this.

[BLI snowman]

Haha, 90% of the country owns us in the snowfall department.

 

I'd be interested in browsing some of the snowfall data from stations in the gorge. Any good ones you'd recommend?

 

Hood River has the best historical data set, although it's still petty choppy. at times

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?or4003

[TT-SEA]

On another note, Michael Ventrice tweeted out an interesting graph about the differences between last night's Euro vs the 12Z Euro from today  He said "Uncharacteristically large changes in today's 12Z ECMWF EPS run by Forecast Day 10; Could be a buyer beware type of situation with regards to this evening's ECMWF Weekly model release."

 

Note, on this image, which is hour 258, this is the maybe a lot stormier?   

 

eurochanges.jpg

 

 

We were told to sleep in shifts.  We were warned.   

[Geos]

High winds making an impact in Mill Creek. 

https://twitter.com/KIRO7Seattle/status/930179368197877760

 

Report of Wind gust to 69 mph at Destruction Island.

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/930173696785784832