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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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Ventrice tweeted earlier about the 12Z Euro. I done know how to put a tweet here, but he said "oday's 12Z ECMWF EPS 11-15d period forecast indicates a flip in the North America Pattern, driven by upstream changes in the North Pacific Jet & collapse of Greenland blocking. This change in pattern would shut down the arctic express. Uncertainty is still elevated, however"

 

The map of 850 anomalies for that time showed normal 850's for WA, slight cool anomalies for Western Oregon, negative anomalies off the coast, and warm anomalies east of the Rockies.

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Last night's windstorm resulted in the worst power outage in Capitol Hill in at least a decade. I've never seen all the shops, bars, and restaurants on Broadway pitch black at dinnertime as far as the eye could see, and I've been in this neighborhood since 2003. So many sushi places must have lost their inventory. Oh the humanity....

 

I somehow lost only half the power in my apartment for a while (despite re-setting the circuit breakers a few times). Some outlets and lights worked and some didn't - I didn't even realize that was possible. I was still praising the heavens and celebrating my semi-good fortune compared to my immediate neighbors when I lost all power around 11:00. Took all my food out of the fridge and onto the balcony at 1:00 a.m. to rescue what I could. Nearly the exact moment I placed the last condiment bottle on the balcony the power came back on and I brought everything back inside. Also graded papers by flashlight for 1.5 hours after having a ladyfriend over in the dark. Wasn't the most relaxing of evenings, but certainly memorable. Was very impressed by the wind gusts up here. Trees were most bendy.

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Ventrice tweeted earlier about the 12Z Euro. I done know how to put a tweet here, but he said "oday's 12Z ECMWF EPS 11-15d period forecast indicates a flip in the North America Pattern, driven by upstream changes in the North Pacific Jet & collapse of Greenland blocking. This change in pattern would shut down the arctic express. Uncertainty is still elevated, however"

 

The map of 850 anomalies for that time showed normal 850's for WA, slight cool anomalies for Western Oregon, negative anomalies off the coast, and warm anomalies east of the Rockies.

Hopefully it's mishandling the wavetrain out of Eurasia, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are short term vacillations in the NAM/PNA system until the bigger stuff arrives towards the holidays.

 

But yeah, verbatim the 12z EPS develops a GOA trough and more +NAM. Scours out all of the Arctic air on our side of the pole.

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00Z GFS is holding tough on its dry solution for Saturday.   Phil might be right about this pattern perfectly exposing the ECMWF cut-off bias.

 

I was really expecting the GFS to move towards the very wet ECMWF solution today, but it shows basically what it showed last night for Saturday:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Real shame about the model shift. The ski areas will suffer.

Is warm rain shown?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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The 00z ECMWF just made a huge correction towards the GFS solution in the near term. Not dragging rear quadrants and cutting off troughs like it was previously.

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The 00z ECMWF just made a huge correction towards the GFS solution in the near term. Not dragging rear quadrants and cutting off troughs like it was previously.

 

And just like that... the new ECMWF run totally agrees with the GFS for Saturday.   Last night it showed 2-5 inches of rain over all of western WA just that day alone... now it shows almost nothing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And just like that... the new ECMWF run totally agrees with the GFS for Saturday. Last night it showed 2-5 inches of rain over all of western WA just that day alone... now it shows almost nothing.

Yep. I think it has more adjusting to do, also.

 

This is precisely the type of pattern that can screw with the ECMWF. Disjointed NPAC jet with plenty of small/isolated waves that it can cut-off, drag into positive tilts, or over-amplify. I think I can already see the rear-quad bias running rampant again by 96hrs (unless I'm missing something and those waves really do end up dispersing positively like that).

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ULLs everywhere! #LolEuro

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93EE24D7-4146-41B3-BEA9-6C56CA9E7DA8_zpsybs9ygr7.png

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00z ECMWF was okay. Day 10 isn't horrible. Interesting the positive anomaly/ridge remains throughout the run from 160-170 W.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017111500/240/500h_anom.na.png

ULL in Mexico, eh? Knock me over with a feather.

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It's pretty windy here tonight, about as windy as our last storm. With the wind has been a ridiculously strong rain shadow signature. There's been some heavy rain just a bit to the north of here, but only about 0.3" here on the day.

I was in Victoria most of the evening. The roads were almost dry when we left. Pouring rain at home. Close To 2” since 7am.

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The surface pressure map on the day 10 ECMWF shows the GOA completely dominated by high pressure once again.  I can only imagine how sluggish things are going to be over the Pacific during the dead of winter!

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-45164200-1510733264_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The surface pressure map on the day 10 ECMWF shows the GOA completely dominated by high pressure once again.  I can only imagine how sluggish things are going to be over the Pacific during the dead of winter!

I can't remember the last time I saw the Pacific (west of the dateline) so dead. This is nuts.

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You can see the GFS ensembles really show improvement toward the end of the run.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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December is going to be AMAZING. Start looking for the models to show the Arctic goodies after Thanksgiving somewhere around the December 4th - 6th time frame.

 

Certainly looks promising.  The 6z shows high GOA heights late in the month once again.  The 6z also shows another minor shot of chilly air early next week that wasn't there before which delays the warm period.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Last night's windstorm resulted in the worst power outage in Capitol Hill in at least a decade. I've never seen all the shops, bars, and restaurants on Broadway pitch black at dinnertime as far as the eye could see, and I've been in this neighborhood since 2003. So many sushi places must have lost their inventory. Oh the humanity....

 

I somehow lost only half the power in my apartment for a while (despite re-setting the circuit breakers a few times). Some outlets and lights worked and some didn't - I didn't even realize that was possible. I was still praising the heavens and celebrating my semi-good fortune compared to my immediate neighbors when I lost all power around 11:00. Took all my food out of the fridge and onto the balcony at 1:00 a.m. to rescue what I could. Nearly the exact moment I placed the last condiment bottle on the balcony the power came back on and I brought everything back inside. Also graded papers by flashlight for 1.5 hours after having a ladyfriend over in the dark. Wasn't the most relaxing of evenings, but certainly memorable. Was very impressed by the wind gusts up here. Trees were most bendy.

It appears theres going to be a niche market in that area for backup generators. 

 

 

It must have been an intriguing night for you, having a lady friend over on a night when the power went out.  ;)

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Really wet morning. Sitting at 44 right now. Was watching the video feed of the snow dumping at Crystal Mountain and Snoqualmie Pass

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The 12z GFS is....different...

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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*****SLIGHT***** differences for next week on the 12z.

 

Pretty bizarre shift. Outlier or a possible new trend??

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Same time, 06z compared to now the 12z GFS. Ummmm...okay!

 

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 9.37.16 AM.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 9.37.25 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Last night's windstorm resulted in the worst power outage in Capitol Hill in at least a decade. I've never seen all the shops, bars, and restaurants on Broadway pitch black at dinnertime as far as the eye could see, and I've been in this neighborhood since 2003. So many sushi places must have lost their inventory. Oh the humanity....

 

I somehow lost only half the power in my apartment for a while (despite re-setting the circuit breakers a few times). Some outlets and lights worked and some didn't - I didn't even realize that was possible. I was still praising the heavens and celebrating my semi-good fortune compared to my immediate neighbors when I lost all power around 11:00. Took all my food out of the fridge and onto the balcony at 1:00 a.m. to rescue what I could. Nearly the exact moment I placed the last condiment bottle on the balcony the power came back on and I brought everything back inside. Also graded papers by flashlight for 1.5 hours after having a ladyfriend over in the dark. Wasn't the most relaxing of evenings, but certainly memorable. Was very impressed by the wind gusts up here. Trees were most bendy.

Living in an area that has a lot of power outages, I can tell you that you probably didn’t need to empty you fridge. Keep your fridge and freezer closed as much as possible and it’ll be fine for probably 24hrs.
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12z CMC says GFS is cra cra.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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