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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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Solar min isn't here yet. Fluxes are low, but geomag/solar wind is still elevated, relatively speaking.

the problem I see here is many are looking at the low fluxes automatically thinking it's the minimum.the solar activitie is lowering true but the geomagnetic wind lags behide a few years which is what some tend to forget.
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38 and mostly cloudy currently. According to my Facebook it was two years ago today that we had the windstorm that knocked out my power for two days. If I remember correctly it was a west wind that got my area...which always creates havoc with the trees. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Nope to what?  Cold?

Howdy... Oh just that the mid to long range do not deliver very well the progression is not favorable. That being said it is only a single run and nothing to worry about at all as there is still plenty of good things to allow for some enjoyable winter time goodies down the road. So not bad just the way things play out. Stay Tuned, as there will be goodies to come -- IMHO. :)  

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Beautiful morning here. Partly cloudy and 46 degrees. Sun blazing down on me.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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the problem I see here is many are looking at the low fluxes automatically thinking it's the minimum.the solar activitie is lowering true but the geomagnetic wind lags behide a few years which is what some tend to forget.

Yep, they're different forcings. Geomag/solar wind is the most important factor when it comes to immediate late autumn/early winter photochemical preconditioning of the polar domain itself..in other words the PV/NAM tendency and background state and its exchange w/ the QBO/BDC-mass circulation.

 

Solar radiation/UV fluxes (during solar maximum), on the other hand, are very important for preconditioning the tropics (and BDC/QBO), several years in advance, such that you'll see the effects of a weak solar maximum on the tropics/QBO amplitude many years later, usually during the following solar minimum and ramp-up to the next solar maximum, statistically speaking.

 

Also, when it comes to the tropical response to solar radiative forcing, the *rate-of-change* (from one cycle to the next) matters just as much as the change in forcing itself.

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Now the 12z GFS ensembles are back to mostly warm.

 

Phil, could it be the fact that it’s been a while since we’ve seen this phase of the NAO that’s giving the models such fits?

I'm not Phil, but time between a certain pattern wouldn't give models any more or less difficulty just because it has been a while since the models have had to forecast for it.

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Now the 12z GFS ensembles are back to mostly warm.

 

Phil, could it be the fact that it’s been a while since we’ve seen this phase of the NAO that’s giving the models such fits?

Seems like there is a lot of bouncing around with each model run even with the ensembles... everything is still on the table for the coming weeks.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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FWIW, the 12z ECMWF just screwed up the Ohio Valley cyclogenesis for tomorrow, so that will have repercussions for the rest of the run. This model is struggling like I've never seen it struggle before..dragging troughs within 12hrs of initialization!

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Pretty cloudy this morning. Since 12 am yesterday the temp has only fluctuated 2.5 degree about.  

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This doesn’t make any sense. I’ll wait for Phil to answer.

Models are programmed to handle teleconnections. I'm saying that it wouldn't make a difference if we hadn't seen a certain phase for 1 year or 2 months, unless there were model upgrades done to handle a certain pattern more accurately between times of experiencing a phase of a teleconnection.

 

Edit: Unless maybe I just totally misunderstood what you wrote.

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Now the 12z GFS ensembles are back to mostly warm.

 

Phil, could it be the fact that it’s been a while since we’ve seen this phase of the NAO that’s giving the models such fits?

I think the -NAO is mostly a result of the complicated processes that are screwing with the modeling, rather than a cause. But yeah, you've got the gist of it. Harder pattern to grasp because there are so many waves.

 

It's the AAM/mountain torque exchanges that are responsible for the dis-jointed/chaotic NPAC wave train, which is responsible for both the model struggles and strong blocking over the NAO/NAM domain.

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Models are programmed to handle teleconnections. I'm saying that it wouldn't make a difference if we hadn't seen a certain phase for 1 year or 2 months, unless there were model upgrades done to handle a certain pattern more accurately between times of experiencing a phase of a teleconnection.

I don't believe the models have "PNA" or "NAO" programmed into their physics codes, if that's what you mean? They're programmed to simulate the atmosphere to the best of their ability, without any presumption that the pattern will enter a "climatologically correct" state, which it often doesn't.

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I don't believe the models have "PNA" or "NAO" programmed into their physics codes, if that's what you mean? They're programmed to simulate the atmosphere to the best of their ability, without any presumption that the pattern will enter a "climatologically correct" state, which is often doesn't.

Ok, I should stop typing right now because I am not explaining things well enough. :lol: Yes, I didn't mean that there are lines of code stating PNA or PDO or whatever, but I was just trying to state that a model wouldn't be any less accurate because of an elapsed time between observed patterns, and it would maybe only be handled better because of the physics engine being improved over time.

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Ok, I should stop typing right now because I am not explaining things well enough. :lol: Yes, I didn't mean that there are lines of code stating PNA or PDO or whatever, but I was just trying to state that a model wouldn't be any less accurate because of an elapsed time between observed patterns, and it would maybe only be handled better because of the physics engine being improved over time.

Yeah but if a model spends most of its time forecasting in a certain background state then that background state changes it might give it problems. We’re not talking a matter of years or months but more like multi-decadal oscillations.

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I think the -NAO is mostly a result of the complicated processes that are screwing with the modeling, rather than a cause. But yeah, you've got the gist of it. Harder pattern to grasp because there are so many waves.

 

It's the AAM/mountain torque exchanges that are responsible for the dis-jointed/chaotic NPAC wave train, which is responsible for both the model struggles and strong blocking over the NAO/NAM domain.

This is sort of what I figured. And yeah the -NAO is probably the result of the pattern rather than the cause, although it is likely chicken vs egg to some degree.

 

I’ve definitely noticed the increased number of waves on the models. The Pacific is just a total mess of anomalously strong high pressure areas and cutoffs right now. Really breaking up the jet.

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Yeah but if a model spends most of its time forecasting in a certain background state then that background state changes it might give it problems. We’re not talking a matter of years or months but more like multi-decadal oscillations.

I think I might understand what you're trying to get at now.

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Yeah but if a model spends most of its time forecasting in a certain background state then that background state changes it might give it problems. We’re not talking a matter of years or months but more like multi-decadal oscillations.

Yeah, the transition between background states, ie: the period when there is no actual background state (yet) will usually screw with the modeling. Also, some patterns *are* more difficult to model than others.

 

For example, high wavenumber patterns, patterns perturbed by diabatic heat release from the tropics (tropical cyclones) and patterns that are mechanically "intimate" with the high Eurasian and North American terrain (hence small changes drastically alter AAM exchange and spatial mass balance) will always give the modeling fits.

 

Each model has its own Achilles heel, as well.

 

- The GFS struggles mightily with tropical convection, hence its bias to throw convection into the EPAC and produce zonal patterns in the middle latitude Western Hemisphere. Also doesn't simulate tropical dynamics well, let alone their influence on the mid latitude/polar circulation. This gets worse after truncation, which is why I think it's a waste of computing power to extend the GFS out 15+ days, given the recourses required to fix this model.

 

- The ECMWF struggles with terrain exchange in high wavenumber patterns, and in general has issues with the Rocky Mountains. So it often gets hung up when trying to phase and/or simulate the interaction between waves when high terrain is involved. This is quite relevant for you guys and folks in the SW and Plains.

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It's like that warm bubble is deflating as the time frame narrows.  As I said last night I had a hunch this would happen.

 

Overall picture still looks pretty warm for most of the foreseeable future to me.

 

I'm not sure why you're rooting on cold so hard right now. You know as well as anyone that warmth this time of year, with this kind of year, tends to be a good thing later.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Overall picture still looks pretty warm for most of the foreseeable future to me.

 

I'm not sure why you're rooting on cold so hard right now. You know as well as anyone that warmth this time of year, with this kind of year, tends to be a good thing later.

 

If he's like me he's probably just sick of torchy periods in general. 

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Overall picture still looks pretty warm for most of the foreseeable future to me.

 

I'm not sure why you're rooting on cold so hard right now. You know as well as anyone that warmth this time of year, with this kind of year, tends to be a good thing later.

Now is the time to torch. Don’t want warm weather over Christmas ugh

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The new Euro weeklies apparantly look relatively warm all the way into mid December.   No real arctic air anywhere in North America,  Brett Anderson said  "Despite some high latitude blocking, it appears that a strong, west to east flow of Pacific air will dominate across the western two-thirds of North America into December."

 

Strong, west to east flow would seem to be relatively normal temps, especially during the day, with warmer nights due to clouds.  So maybe that is good for the mountains.

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If he's like me he's probably just sick of torchy periods in general. 

 

Fair enough. But you could do worse than November torching following a 2 month cool period.  :)

 

If we've finally entered a new system state as several of us believe, then torching in general should be much less prevalent over the coming years (compared to the last few, at least).

A forum for the end of the world.

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Now is the time to torch. Don’t want warm weather over Christmas ugh

 

I think there's about a 50/50 shot that things change in time for Christmas. But not likely during the first half of December.

 

It's looking even worse for my area over the next few weeks than you guys, if that makes you feel any better. And we've already been torching much more this month.  <_>

A forum for the end of the world.

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The new Euro weeklies apparantly look relatively warm all the way into mid December.   No real arctic air anywhere in North America,  Brett Anderson said  "Despite some high latitude blocking, it appears that a strong, west to east flow of Pacific air will dominate across the western two-thirds of North America into December."

 

Strong, west to east flow would seem to be relatively normal temps, especially during the day, with warmer nights due to clouds.  So maybe that is good for the mountains.

We all know how reliable the weeklies are so far out. :lol:

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