November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

This sort of Northbendthusiasm would have been fun on the day that Seattle was seeing historically early snow a few weeks ago.

[TT-SEA]

This sort of Northbendthusiasm would have been fun on the day that Seattle was seeing historically early snow a few weeks ago.

 

That was sloppy, gross snow.

 

If they have a 2008 type event then I will be all over it.    

[Deweydog]

Pre-Thanksgiving bias duel???

 

Has to be a good sign moving forward...

[TT-SEA]

Pre-Thanksgiving bias duel???

 

Has to be a good sign moving forward...

 

This warmth has me feeling a white Christmas here.    

[Deweydog]

This warmth has me feeling a white Christmas here.

Jesse's torch-related gorge bravado screwed us.

 

Thanks, Jesse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting to see Pendleton only at 49, sometimes they mix out on days like this and post some impressive highs.

 

60 here for a high under cloudy skies with intermittent light rain. About .2" of rain today. Down to 57 now. 

 

18z was really nice. My first snow would be Dec. 4th, and then close to a backdoor blast on the end. Carrots.

[Jesse]

Jesse's torch-related gorge bravado screwed us.

 

Thanks, Jesse.

 

It's been a pretty interesting setup. I expected northern areas to torch today and the Gorge to keep us relatively cool, but not to this degree. Temperatures approaching 70 in the Puget Sound region and only mid-50s in the Portland area.

[Jesse]

Just had my 18,000th post! Hopefully that means we will see a 18000's type winter this year.

[TT-SEA]

Some highs today...

 

SEA - 68

BLI - 68

RNT - 70

OLM - 66

[Jesse]

That was sloppy, gross snow.

 

If they have a 2008 type event then I will be all over it.    

 

You should break into the NWS at Sandpoint and smear feces on the record books for those dates to underscore that fact.

[TT-SEA]

I will need wxstatman to verify... but this appears to be the latest 68 at SEA.     Looks like before today it was 11/16/65.

 

Also looks like the latest 68 at BLI as well.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Just had my 18,000th post! Hopefully that means we will see a 18000's type winter this year.

18000 BC obviously. Need some Caveman analysis n stuff for that. Nogly can draw some pretty descriptive with his rocks.

[TT-SEA]

18000 BC obviously. Need some Caveman analysis n stuff for that. Nogly can draw some pretty descriptive s**t with his rocks.

 

I believe we were still in the grips of an ice age in 18,000 BC.   

[Gradient Keeper]

I believe we were still in the grips of an ice age in 18,000 BC.   

Yep, but that wouldn't have been as witty or show an attempt at poor humor as my comment did.

 

I'll all about the nonsense. C'mon, you know me and how I roll

[Gradient Keeper]

11/22/17 4:27 PM [Model Countdown]
Next up.................
*00z GFS in 2 hours 57 minutes
00z CMC(Canadian) in 3 hours 42 minutes
00z ECMWF in 5 hours 18 minutes
Let's see how this 00z run handles the energy with the offshore trough and our possible wind event/storm this weekend. Not a great chance, but we do need to keep an eye on that. After day 7-8 I'd sure like to see a similar 500mb pattern progression as the EURO has shown now for a few runs. We're starting to see a few signals beyond day 8-10 that raise some eyebrows. Not arctic yet and not a trend yet, but you do have to start somewhere.

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄☃❄❄

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

I read the analysis from the forecaster and that in conjunction with the GFS Super Ensemble and EPS tells me we're fairly close to a really cold pattern after day 8. Not quite there just yet, but it bares watching.

[Geos]

Same place where I live now, we are not quite 300ft and are between I-5 and the sound west of Smokey Point. We do very well with PSCZ's 

 

Yeah the CZ's are fun when it's cold enough.

Looks like; from my best estimate, that 24-30" fell in my location that December. Would love to see that any month this winter.

[BLI snowman]

I will need wxstatman to verify... but this appears to be the latest 68 at SEA.     Looks like before today it was 11/16/65.

 

Also looks like the latest 68 at BLI as well.  

 

It is 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

I read the analysis from the forecaster and that in conjunction with the GFS Super Ensemble and EPS tells me we're fairly close to a really cold pattern after day 8. Not quite there just yet, but it bares watching.

I read it too, and they did not take into account today's 12z Euro, they took into account yesterday's 12Z Euro and the overnight 0Z.   Yesterday's 12Z Euro ensembles had no negative temperature anomalies for the PNW in the 8-14 day range.  

[Deweydog]

It's been a pretty interesting setup. I expected northern areas to torch today and the Gorge to keep us relatively cool, but not to this degree. Temperatures approaching 70 in the Puget Sound region and only mid-50s in the Portland area.

Mid 50's is actually pretty D**n impressive for late November with no sunshine and low level offshore flow.

[BLI snowman]

Mid 50's is actually pretty d**n impressive for late November with no sunshine and low level offshore flow.

 

Participation trophy?

[Jesse]

Mid 50's is actually pretty d**n impressive for late November with no sunshine and low level offshore flow.

Indeed. We have some record highs that are only in the upper 50s at this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

I read it too, and they did not take into account today's 12z Euro, they took into account yesterday's 12Z Euro and the overnight 0Z.   Yesterday's 12Z Euro ensembles had no negative temperature anomalies for the PNW in the 8-14 day range.  

Yeah, they didn't. That's an important piece of information. I'm thinking if they did base it on 12z and 00z/12z EPS blend as well as the CMC seems to be starting to move towards the ECMWF and we see this continue, we'll see the darker blue shadings on the next 8-14 Day outlook.

[snow_wizard]

Very iteresting day today.  SEA absolutely destroyed their daily record max for the day and this was the latest it has gotten this warm by almost 3 weeks.  This comes after their earliest high of 40 or below on record!  We are in 1930s territory with this stuff.  I would have felt left out being in Portland today.  This was so ridiculous I actually liked it.

 

In other news the ECMWF seems to be latching onto a nice -PNA -EPO pattern during week two.  The 18z GFS was starting to look better also.

[Gradient Keeper]

Very interesting day today.  SEA absolutely destroyed their daily record max for the day and this was the latest it has gotten this warm by almost 3 weeks.  This comes after their earliest high of 40 or below on record!  We are in 1930s territory with this stuff.  I would have felt left out being in Portland today.  This was so ridiculous I actually liked it.

 

In other news the ECMWF seems to be latching onto a nice -PNA -EPO pattern during week two.  The 18z GFS was starting to look better also.

That's encouraging. Colder runs ahead!

[wx_statman]

I will need wxstatman to verify... but this appears to be the latest 68 at SEA.     Looks like before today it was 11/16/65.

 

Also looks like the latest 68 at BLI as well.  

 

You got it. 

 

Shades of 12/10/2014 today. Outlandish warmth. 

[TT-SEA]

Very iteresting day today.  SEA absolutely destroyed their daily record max for the day and this was the latest it has gotten this warm by almost 3 weeks.  This comes after their earliest high of 40 or below on record!  We are in 1930s territory with this stuff.  I would have felt left out being in Portland today.  This was so ridiculous I actually liked it.

 

In other news the ECMWF seems to be latching onto a nice -PNA -EPO pattern during week two.  The 18z GFS was starting to look better also.

 

 

Correction... by 6 days.   It was 68 on 11/16/65.

[wx_statman]

The 72 at MFR tied the late-season mark as well, specifically for warmest reading after 11/12. They hit 72 on 12/14/1962 under a strong ridge in a highly amplified pattern, with a historic SE freeze underway on the 13th-14th. Crestview, FL hit 5 degrees and both Tallahassee and Pensacola hit 10. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I got to a cozy 70 here today... just priming the pump for cold stuff to come. Planning on a white Christmas this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

I got to a cozy 70 here today... just priming the pump for cold stuff to come. Planning on a white Christmas this year.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[TT-SEA]

SEA was falling through the 60s but now has bumped back up to 64.    That would still be a record high by 6 degrees.   

[HighlandExperience]

Found this on YouTube. December 2008 snowfall in Seattle.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2TjBuOuwcs

[MossMan]

Still 61 here!

[TT-SEA]

Still 61 here!

 

Just got the mail... clear here now and fairly calm.    First frost tonight?   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Still 67 here... HOLDEN onto the heat. Swamp Gas in full effect tonight. 

[Jesse]

Slug of rain heading for the Portland area. 54 and cloudy here currently.

[High Desert Mat!]

After observing over the last 3 months+, I foresee a winter which resembles 04'-05'. I will elaborate in a bit but you heard it here first.

[TT-SEA]

After observing over the last 3 months+, I foresee a winter which resembles 04'-05'. I will elaborate in a bit but you heard it here first.

 

A 2-week ski season here!    So bad they had to offer free passes for the next year to everyone who bought passes for 2004-05.

 

Highly doubt that type of winter in on the way.  

[Jesse]

Nice to see 2014 and 2004 coming up as analogs tonight. Unsung Niño heroes.