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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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Good to see it’s back to snow at Stevens Pass anyway...was nice to get that torch over with fairly quickly. Now let’s get that atmosphere reset and let’s get some big time cold December action swinging down like 2008 or 1990!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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New ECMWF weeklies follow the same script. Blowtorches the west through December, then drops the hammer in early January with a retrogression.

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New ECMWF weeklies follow the same script. Blowtorches the west through December, then drops the hammer in early January with a retrogression.

Hmmm blowtorch through December??? Really?! Well,

I doubt that it will be that extreme.

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Hmmm blowtorch through December??? Really?! Well,

I doubt that it will be that extreme.

Yeah, I'm not sure it will actually be a "blowtorch" either, but I'd bet a hefty load that December is warmer than average.

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Yeah, I'm not sure it will actually be a "blowtorch" either, but I'd bet a hefty load that December is warmer than average.

Don't take this personally but..... ** and your penchant for bad news and while I'm at **** the ECMWF weeklies as well. In fact, **** this winter that has yet to arrive. 

 

Winter Cancel FOREVER!

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Although it’s a dry, ridgy pattern that could be good for fake cold.

The ridging is centered on weeks 3-5, then it collapses, which lines up with the ECMWF seasonal, and UKMET/JMA as well.

 

These are the torch weeks. Pattern looks amplified, which is preferable to something more zonal, I guess.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/86A7280F-846D-42D5-99BD-E0C0DCCE1A13_zpsszwmwc0n.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/86A6008E-F859-4215-BF8C-0146F3F9416C_zpsgmr9q11b.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ABACB691-76F6-4564-A724-CC9E0CE187E4_zpsygc2faqs.png

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I can't show weeks 5-7 since they're on the SV site, but they flip into -EPO/-PNA/SE-ridge for January.

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How heavy is the hammer in Jan looking like? 1950 esq or more like 2008 dec or something in between

The ensemble spread is large, but there are some truly insane members in there, along with many that resemble December 2008 or November 2010. A smaller cluster has the ridge closer to the coast, but that looks like a product of a delayed retrogression and stronger PV, rather than a denied one.

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By the middle of January, though, every single ensemble member depicts a retrogression into -PNA/-EPO. Even the sluggish members go that route. That's pretty notable, IMO.

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In the end, given the strengthening Indo-China forcing and rising/cooling IPWP tropopause over the next 5-8 weeks, I don't think anything will prevent a strong -PNA/western trough from dominating through the majority of J/F/M, even as the NPAC ridge starts trending equatorward from late January into February.

 

The only possible wildcard would be an unexpected solar wind/CME bombardment, and even that wouldn't prevent the transition into -PNA (it might accelerate the transition into +EPO, but that'd still be a cool pattern out there, like 2011/12).

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I feel like I’ve read this same post before for other winters.

You mean last winter? I recall it verifying quite well. ;)

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In the end, given the strengthening Indo-China forcing and rising/cooling IPWP tropopause over the next 5-8 weeks, I don't think anything will prevent a strong -PNA/western trough from dominating through the majority of J/F/M, even as the NPAC ridge starts trending equatorward from late January into February.

 

The only possible wildcard would be an unexpected solar wind/CME bombardment, and even that wouldn't prevent the transition into -PNA (it might accelerate the transition into +EPO, but that'd still be a cool pattern out there, like 2011/12).

Sounds like you are pretty confident. I want to believe!

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You mean last winter? I recall it verifying quite well. ;)

This is true. Although a region wide arctic blast/snowstorm never really happened. I realize that this is mesoscale stuff that you don’t deal with as much though. You were good on the large scale pattern.

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I never thought I would be calling this morning a "cold snap" hitting 31 degrees, comparing to the last couple mornings.

 

Let me check.. hold on. Yup, it's 11/24... :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Don't take this personally but..... ** and your penchant for bad news and while I'm at **** the ECMWF weeklies as well. In fact, **** this winter that has yet to arrive. 

 

Winter Cancel FOREVER!

 

Oh brother.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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New ECMWF weeklies follow the same script. Blowtorches the west through December, then drops the hammer in early January with a retrogression.

 

This would fit with most leading analogs featuring a generally warm West in December. Of course, this doesn't mean wall to wall warmth in December, as discussed in the Winter Predictions thread the past couple weeks. Some of these years had cool spells with some snow.

 

post-949-0-15240400-1510796688.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I'm nervous. If we blow torch through December and then it continues in January, winter cancel.

 

It's going to be below normal a week from now according to a lot of the models.  December will probably be variable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This would fit with most leading analogs featuring a generally warm West in December. Of course, this doesn't mean wall to wall warmth in December, as discussed in the Winter Predictions thread the past couple weeks. Some of these years had cool spells with some snow.

 

attachicon.gifpost-949-0-15240400-1510796688.png

 

Good call.  It's obvious there will be a cold snap of some sort during week 2.

 

It should be noted December 1970 was pretty cold and snowy for many though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Good call.  It's obvious there will be a cold snap of some sort during week 2.

 

It should be noted December 1970 was pretty cold and snowy for many though.

 

December 1970 was definitely the coldest of the bunch for both the PNW and the West as a whole.

 

2007 was pretty cool overall, too. But all the others were solidly warm in the West.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Yeah, I was gonna say. Several of us did pretty well with last winter's calls, including a cold mid winter.

 

I wondering if you realize almost none of your analogs line up with what the NE Pacific looked like in Oct-Nov.  I think that stubborn positive height / pressure anom out there is key to this winter.  Past history is adamant the persistent positive anoms out there are a big deal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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December 1970 was definitely the coldest of the bunch for both the PNW and the West as a whole.

 

2007 was pretty cool overall, too. But all the others were solidly warm in the West.

 

I'm not seeing a 2007 like outcome.  This year is much more blocky.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I wondering if you realize almost none of your analogs line up with what the NE Pacific looked like in Oct-Nov. I think that stubborn positive height / pressure anom out there is key to this winter. Past history is adamant the persistent positive anoms out there are a big deal.

Don’t question Flatiron’s analogs, they are the absolute gold standard. Plus, if they catch too much scrutiny he might stop sharing them again.

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I wondering if you realize almost none of your analogs line up with what the NE Pacific looked like in Oct-Nov.  I think that stubborn positive height / pressure anom out there is key to this winter.  Past history is adamant the persistent positive anoms out there are a big deal.

 

The positive height anomalies seen in the NE Pacific during October was one of the factors included in my winter outlook. I referenced them in the initial post. 

 

Going forward through November, though, I've focused on the leading pattern analogs (all of which were part of the initial analog group in my outlook). Some of the years that scored very high with the NPI and your NPS index for October, such as 1956, 1961, 1971, and 1985, have not been very good pattern analogs this month. Others, though, such as 1949 and 2013, have been pretty good.

 

I do think the NE Pacific pressure tendencies are important (remember me, PDO guy?), but there are other important factors as well. I think we mainly agree on the outcome for this winter, even if we don't follow the exact same methodology.  

A forum for the end of the world.

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