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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

stuffradio

By stuffradio
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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted

I agree. The idea that -NAO = cold east and -PNA = cold west is really nothing more than wx-weenie mythology. In reality they're very much interlinked, and generally speaking, are expressive of large scale tropical/subtropical dynamics across the entire Western Hemisphere.

 

At the same time, the relationship for the PNW and the NAO is pretty disjointed.

 

Some of the coldest months for the PNW/West over the past 60+ years, and the NAO during those months.

 

Jan 1950: +.92

Dec 1951: +1.32

Nov 1955: -1.29

Feb 1956: -1.12

Jan 1957: +1.05

Jan 1963:  -2.12

Jan 1969: -.83

Jan 1972: +.27

Dec 1972: +.19

Jan 1979: -1.38

Jan 1980: -.75

Dec 1983: +.29

Nov 1985: -.67

Feb 1989: +2.00

Dec 1990: +.22

Jan 1993: +1.60

Jan 1996: -.12

Dec 2008: -.28

Dec 2009: -1.93

Feb 2011: +.70

Dec 2013: +.95

Jan 2017: +.48

 

+NAO months: 12

-NAO months: 10

 

So again, while I'm totally down with the concept that a -NAO is often present during very blocky patterns, which tend to be good for cold across the CONUS, I think the evidence indicates it's just not a super important factor for much of the West in getting cold. And some of the coldest western patterns featured -PNA/+NAO.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Geos
Geos

It was fun to watch and see which cars had more snow on them this morning.    Posted the rest of the pictures from this morning in the winter picture thread. Here is some additional ones.      

Guest El nina
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luvssnow_spokane
luvssnow_spokane

Hey Phil...   When can I fire-up my the certified SnowWizard winter tracking system again??... I have shut it down due to no real reason to use it lately. It rocks but dang it sucks the juice. I hear

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Well... my wife ordered a snowblower on sale on Black Friday. Should be here in a couple weeks. Sorry guys. Just ruined winter. I tried to warn her... I think she did it on purpose. :)

It will probably get used as much as my generator since I have gotten it a year ago...zero!! We all need to burn our snowblowers, show shovels, sleds, anything snow related. It might the only way we ever see snow again.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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It will probably get used as much as my generator since I have gotten it a year ago...zero!! We all need to burn our snowblowers, show shovels, sleds, anything snow related. It might the only way we ever see snow again.

Many sacrifices are required to appease the snow gods.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

At the same time, the relationship for the PNW and the NAO is pretty disjointed.

 

Some of the coldest months for the PNW/West over the past 60+ years, and the NAO during those months.

 

Jan 1950: +.92

Dec 1951: +1.32

Nov 1955: -1.29

Feb 1956: -1.12

Jan 1957: +1.05

Jan 1963: -2.12

Jan 1969: -.83

Jan 1972: +.27

Dec 1972: +.19

Jan 1979: -1.38

Jan 1980: -.75

Dec 1983: +.29

Nov 1985: -.67

Feb 1989: +2.00

Dec 1990: +.22

Jan 1993: +1.60

Jan 1996: -.12

Dec 2008: -.28

Dec 2009: -1.93

Feb 2011: +.70

Dec 2013: +.95

Jan 2017: +.48

 

+NAO months: 12

-NAO months: 10

 

So again, while I'm totally down with the concept that a -NAO is often present during very blocky patterns, which tend to be good for cold across the CONUS, I think the evidence indicates it's just not a super important factor for much of the West in getting cold. And some of the coldest western patterns featured -PNA/+NAO.

Correct, the -NAO is not a factor in the *immediate* term, when it comes to western US Arctic outbreaks/etc, however it's definitely a reflection of a low frequency wavetrain that directly supports the -PNA and increases the likelihood of Arctic outbreaks west of the Rockies.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Just do what Kayla did. Move east of the Rockies.

 

Truth. One of the best decisions of my life.

 

Highly recommended for anyone who is obsessed (all of us! :P ) with the weather and cold/snow.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Brian_in_Leavenworth Veteran

Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Truth. One of the best decisions of my life.

 

Highly recommended for anyone who is obsessed (all of us! :P ) with the weather and cold/snow.

I did. I moved to Leavenworth. Even in a bad year we still get 40-50 inches of snow, and a good year can be over 120 inches. And we always have great scenery. You have to love the area when it's not winter too.

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pscz1140 Newbie

pscz1140

Posted
Posted

Has anyone NOT put up their Christmas lights yet? The only way to ensure God/Santa delivers snow this winter is if everyone is done by tomorrow.

 

I don't have any outdoor lights, but I kept my Christmas tree up all year.

 

Everyone thought I was a dumb*** over the summer, but it's gonna pay off soon :)

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Skagit River is eating away properties today... the owner of this house lost a 42X30 workshop last night.    They interviewed the owner and he was surprisingly not worried about the ongoing and crippling drought.   :mellow:

 

flood.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Skagit River is eating away properties today... the owners of this house lost a 42X30 workshop last night. They interviewed the owner and he was surprisingly not worried about the ongoing and crippling drought. :mellow:

 

flood.png

They’re adverting Port Townsend. That’s where my Dad is living now!

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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They’re adverting Port Townsend. That’s where my Dad is living now!

 

I was going to mention that too.  

 

Although I doubt its coated in snow right now as the picture shows.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

Skagit River is eating away properties today... the owner of this house lost a 42X30 workshop last night. They interviewed the owner and he was surprisingly not worried about the ongoing and crippling drought. :mellow:

 

flood.png

Came down mostly to the major rapid snowmelt up there. Big early season snowpack followed by record warmth. The rains weren't really all that impressive.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

I was going to mention that too.

 

Although I doubt its coated in snow right now as the picture shows. :)

He had sticking snow a few week ago I guess. When Bellingham did. But yeah that area isn’t really known for its snow.

 

The Olympic rain shadow seems to be noticeable. Most days I’ve talked to him that it’s been wet here it’s been dry or even partly cloudy there.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Andy in Woodinville has a drone now... he posted a video of the flooding along the Snoqulamie River today.     Looks like the trees are really suffering now from the drought.    Many of them are completely bare.   :unsure:

 

woodinville.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Pretty notable retrogression signal on the 0z ensemble the second half of week two.  This trend first showed on the 18z, but it's stronger on this run.  Who knows!

 

 

post-222-0-93941800-1511677769_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Agung pics are spreading on social media. Ash column approaching 30,000ft. Maybe higher (need to wait for the next update).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/102852C6-E26B-4FF7-B2A5-BBD6532498ED_zps4vtmysnu.jpg

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Agung pics are spreading on social media.

 

 

A major volcano when we're nearing solar minimum could trigger the cooling we've been expecting after the big Nino.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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