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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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I was going to mention January 1985. December 85' had a lot of ridging too I think, especially the latter half of the month.

The Christmas ridge in 1985 was a beast. 16-17c at 850mb. We had 60 degree temps with sunshine at the immediate coast and I remember playing outside in t-shirts at my grandparent's house on Christmas Day. It was a bit of a shift from Thanksgiving weekend that year.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The Christmas ridge in 1985 was a beast. 16-17c at 850mb. We had 60 degree temps with sunshine at the immediate coast and I remember playing outside in t-shirts at my grandparent's house on Christmas Day. It was a bit of a shift from Thanksgiving weekend that year.

 

I always think it is funny that is the coldest December on record at PDX. Colder than 64, 72, 90, 08, 09, 13, etc...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What would you expect the impact of a high SO eruption in the tropics during peak solar would be to the Pacific NW?

Depends what you mean by "peak solar". Also depends on if/when the volcano enters into its explosive stage, since SO^2 injection timed to boreal winter will affect the SH first and have reduced (initial) effects on the NH PV/O^3 system.

 

Assuming the volcano enters into its explosive phase sometime this winter, the strongest effects in the NH will start sometime during the second half of 2018.

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Only 0.57" of rain at Silver Falls in January 1985. Average for January is just over 10". Tim would have loved it. Nice cold outbreaks with snow in December 84' and February 85'. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z EPS is laying down the precursors for a discontinuous retrogression by d15. First stage of the retrogression (in mid/late December) should move the trough axis from the Eastern US into the Plains/Midwest. Then, the second stage retrogrades the anticyclone into the GOA/NPAC around New Years, dumping the trough into the Western US.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/41FF79EA-984E-4384-A0F3-DBE26C3BB953_zps31u7lhse.png

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The Christmas ridge in 1985 was a beast. 16-17c at 850mb. We had 60 degree temps with sunshine at the immediate coast and I remember playing outside in t-shirts at my grandparent's house on Christmas Day. It was a bit of a shift from Thanksgiving weekend that year.

 

Crazy inversion during Christmas week. Mid-70's in the thermal belt (i.e. 74 at Laurel Mountain) while Hood River was stuck in the mid-20's. 

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I always think it is funny that is the coldest December on record at PDX. Colder than 64, 72, 90, 08, 09, 13, etc...

 

There was some seriously entrenched cold air east of the Cascades that never got scoured out that month, even in the higher elevation valleys. Some places approached the coldest month on record benchmarks set in months like Jan 1937 or Jan 1949. Perfect storm to get month-long stagnation following a record Arctic airmass.

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I checked, and January 1985 was pretty dry for Seattle, and probably everywhere else.  Except for a week with a couple of days of minor rainfall.  Otherwise it was foggy most of the month.  So it is unusual, but not unprecedented, to have 4 weeks or so of a huge ridge parked over us during winter months.

 

January 1985 was the driest on record pretty much everywhere in the PNW. 

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There was some seriously entrenched cold air east of the Cascades that never got scoured out that month, even in the higher elevation valleys. Some places approached the coldest month on record benchmarks set in months like Jan 1937 or Jan 1949. Perfect storm to get month-long stagnation following a record Arctic airmass.

 

Speaking of January 1937... Back in 2011 I almost bought a house way up in the west slopes SE of Molalla, OR, at almost 2400'. I was actually under contract, but the place just needed to much work. Turned out there was an old weather station up there just down the road from 1933-56. January 37' was quite the beast. 

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00358221&year=1937&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2005 and 2011 really stick out for me, just based on how long the dry weather lasted and how recent they were. 

 

No doubt. Was just adding some other historical examples.

 

It certainly looks at this point that this dry spell could be unusually lengthy, but really too soon to say beyond it will probably be dry/cool for at least 4-5 days.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Speaking of January 1937... Back in 2011 I almost bought a house way up in the west slopes SE of Molalla, OR, at almost 2400'. I was actually under contract, but the place just needed to much work. Turned out there was an old weather station up there just down the road from 1933-56. January 37' was quite the beast. 

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00358221&year=1937&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

That was a great month for the West as a whole. A -PNA monster from start to finish. I've read a study where they reconstructed the PNA from 1922-48 using old aviation data (pilot reports, balloon soundings, etc). January 1937 was the most -PNA month in that span. 

 

Kalispell MT never rose above 28 the entire month. Only month in 120 years that didn't reach the freezing mark there. 

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No doubt. Was just adding some other historical examples.

 

It certainly looks at this point that this dry spell could be unusually lengthy, but really too soon to say beyond it will probably be dry/cool for at least 4-5 days.

 

True, it is a bit premature to assign anything to next month. Still the 27th of this month!

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One of the most amazing events in my lifetime, here is what I wrote in the "This day in history" thread yesterday...

 

On this day...11/26/06 in the morning the snow started to stick, by 1pm the power was off as the heavy wet snow started taking down trees and limbs. By that night it was still snowing with a foot on the ground...it continued until the evening of the 27th when the arctic front pushed through and temps plummeted to the upper teens. 18” of snow, tree destruction like I have never seen, and no power for nearly a week since the damage was so extensive. That was one hell of an event especially since the forecast called for a sloppy inch with possibly another inch with arctic passage... 

 

Wow that sounds like quite a storm. Was that a convergence setup or an actual system low?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That was a great month for the West as a whole. A -PNA monster from start to finish. I've read a study where they reconstructed the PNA from 1922-48 using old aviation data (pilot reports, balloon soundings, etc). January 1937 was the most -PNA month in that span. 

 

Kalispell MT never rose above 28 the entire month. Only month in 120 years that didn't reach the freezing mark there. 

 

Amazing. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hopefully it blows big soon so it can affect next summer.

 

I was reading somewhere an explosive eruption was not expected at this point.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was reading somewhere an explosive eruption was not expected at this point.

Breitbart? ;)

 

I don’t think anyone knows exactly what it will do. But the threat for a major magmatic eruption seems to elevated right now compared to where we were a few weeks ago.

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The Euro weeklies are out. Holds firm for the most part. The majority of December is warm west/cold east.

 

A heavy, long-period retrogression starts up around the winter solstice, with the ridge establishing (and strengthening) over the GOA/NE-Pacific during the first week of January. Some of the ensemble members are insanely cold in the PNW after New Years.

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I was reading somewhere an explosive eruption was not expected at this point.

I don't have the answers, but MAGMA-Indonesia (the official body for the region, with the most extensive knowledge of their local vulcanism) does not concur, and inticipates a more explosive eruption at some point.

 

Agung's eruptions almost always feature an explosive phase, so I'm not sure why this eruption should be any different.

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Breitbart? ;)

 

I don’t think anyone knows exactly what it will do. But the threat for a major magmatic eruption seems to elevated right now compared to where we were a few weeks ago.

 

No it was a typical fake news source like Reuters or something along those lines.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The Euro weeklies are out. Holds firm for the most part. The majority of December is warm west/cold east.

 

A heavy, long-period retrogression starts up around the winter solstice, with the ridge establishing (and strengthening) over the GOA/NE-Pacific during the first week of January. Some of the ensemble members are insanely cold in the PNW after New Years.

What does the ensemble mean show?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I don't have the answers, but MAGMA-Indonesia (the official body for the region, with the most extensive knowledge of their local vulcanism) does not concur, and inticipates a more explosive eruption at some point.

 

Agung's eruptions almost always feature an explosive phase, so I'm not sure why this eruption should be any different.

 

When was the last eruption that had a discernible impact on world climate? Pinatubo?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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When was the last eruption that had a discernible impact on world climate? Pinatubo?

I think so. That one led to at least 1 good winter here. 1992-93 had at least 1 snow event down here right? Plus I feel like the 93-94 niño had some cold periods. Snowflakes were falling on xmas unless I have the year wrong.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I think so. That one led to at least 1 good winter here. 1992-93 had at least 1 snow event down here right?

 

92-93 had 32" of snow at SLE. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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92-93 had 32" of snow at SLE.

Yup, sadly I feel like next winter will be a niño so less likely to be as cold here. Hopefully the subsequent winters will still be affected by the cooling episode.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Wow... the EPS and ECMWF control run are just crazy ridgy through the end of the run.   

 

Obviously inversions will be in play in December and it does not look like a cold east wind pattern.   

 

1952 and 2009 showed up as top analogs today.     I remember thinking December of 2009 was a really nice month but it was not snowy here.  I clearly remember a long stretch of crisp, sunny weather around Christmas that year with a bare ground.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow... the EPS and ECMWF control run are just crazy ridgy through the end of the run.

 

Obviously inversions will be in play in December and it does not look like a cold east wind pattern.

 

1952 and 2009 showed up as top analogs today. I remember thinking December of 2009 was a really nice month but it was not snowy here. I clearly remember a long stretch of crisp, sunny weather around Christmas that year with a bare ground.

Gross!

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Gross!

 

Day after day of murky fog would definitely be very gross.  

 

Christmas week of 2009 was really nice up here at least.   Crystal clear skies and sunshine and snow-covered mountains.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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When was the last eruption that had a discernible impact on world climate? Pinatubo?

Yeah, I think it was Pinatubo, though that eruption occurred during a massive solar maximum/+ENSO/+NAM/CFC-laden era. The climatic response to Agung (if there is one) will be quite different in the middle latitudes.

 

The lack of VEI5+ volcanoes since the early 1990s is also somewhat unusual, statistically speaking, so I'm guessing it's reasonable to expect more explosive volcanic activity over the next few decades relative to the more recent few.

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Yup, sadly I feel like next winter will be a niño so less likely to be as cold here. Hopefully the subsequent winters will still be affected by the cooling episode.

Next winter won't be a Niño (IMO), but I think 2019/20 could be.

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Yeah, I think it was Pinatubo, though that eruption occurred during a massive solar maximum/+ENSO/+NAM/CFC-laden era. The climatic response to Agung (if there is one) will be quite different in the middle latitudes.

 

The lack of VEI5+ volcanoes since the early 1990s is also somewhat unusual, statistically speaking, so I'm guessing it's reasonable to expect more explosive volcanic activity over the next few decades relative to the more recent few.

 

 

Here is the list of the largest volcanic eruptions in recent history...

 

https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0418/Five-biggest-volcano-eruptions-in-recent-history

 

 

I think the Tambora eruption on 4/10/1815 (this was a VEI7 and absolutely massive) and Krakatoa on 8/27/1883 and Pinatubo 6/15/1991 all had noticeable effects on the weather in the PNW.     Although there are very few records from 1815... it was clear that one effected the entire planet.  

 

The winters of 1883-84 were 1884-85 were very snowy.   I am not sure what the summer of 1884 was like... I can't find that site that has daily stats for Portland back to 1879.    Can anyone link me to that site again?    And I believe the winter of 1992-93 and the summer of 1993 was influenced by Pinatubo.    

 

However... the other VEI6 eruptions of Santa Maria on 10/24/1902 and Novarupta on 6/6/1912 seemed to have less of an effect.    The following 2 summers after each of those eruptions were all spectacular here by my standards (1903, 1904, 1913, and 1914).    The corresponding winters also did not seem unusually cold and snowy.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yup, sadly I feel like next winter will be a niño so less likely to be as cold here. Hopefully the subsequent winters will still be affected by the cooling episode.

 

I always thought 92-93 was weak Nino or +Neutral. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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El Chichon (1983) erupted during a super Niño/+PDO, but it influenced the climate through the mid-1980s -ENSO years, in particular 1983/84, 1984/84, and 1985/86. However, that was also powerful solar wind/CFC dominated period for the stratosphere, unlike today.

 

So, the years following the Agung's 1963 eruption might be the best analogs for Agung's ongoing eruption, lol.

 

 

1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, and 1966 were all relatively cool summers around here.   Before and after the last eruption of  Mt. Agung... so there might be other factors at play in that time frame.  

 

1964 was the coolest and similar to 1993.    That would actually line up with the summer of 2019 after this eruption.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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