November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[BLI snowman]

A certain 25 year old budding lawyer was enjoying some life changing cold anomalies in Omak that winter, if I recall.

 

Matt's biography is in good hands 

[Jesse]

Matt's biography is in good hands

Were you in Brush Prairie back then?

 

I basically have to remember these things about people. It’s how I make sense of the world.

[Deweydog]

Are people gonna freak out when this ridge deamplifies into a benign onshore flow pattern?

[BLI snowman]

Were you in Brush Prarie back then?

 

I basically have to remember these things about people. It’s how I make sense of the world.

 

I was still out of the region for school, only back for breaks and the occasional trip. Was fortunate to miss out.

[liquidsnow]

But... But... January...?

Don't worry. I have a feeling March will finally bring some 38 degree rain.

[Phil]

Are people gonna freak out when this ridge deamplifies into a benign onshore flow pattern?

Translated: "I'm freaking out. What a buzzkill Euro run. Totally killed my high. But how can I possibly express these feelings without appearing vulnerable or human in any way?"

[Deweydog]

Translated: "I'm freaking out. What a buzzkill Euro run. Totally killed my high. But how can I possibly express these feelings without appearing vulnerable or human in any way?"

Do you actually think this pattern will remain this amplified and ever so slowly evolve favorably for the next 32 days?

[Gradient Keeper]

Do you actually think this pattern will remain this amplified and ever so slowly evolve favorably for the next 32 days?

Yes. It will be truly magical.

[Deweydog]

Yes. It will be truly magical.

It's a Disney ridge!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS .... BARF. No idea how the control run looks though.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 10 minutes!

[ShawniganLake]

6z GFS in 10 minutes!

Barf. Ensembles too

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was a junior at John F. Kennedy high school in Mt. Angel back in 2000/01. We had some chilly playoff football games in November. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 33 last night. 37 currently under cloudy skies.

[Geos]

41 degrees with a steady rain here. Pretty low snow levels by the look of it this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain already moving in this morning. Yesterday was an incredibly beautiful day down here. 44/33. 

[TT-SEA]

42 and raining here.

[TT-SEA]

41 degrees with a steady rain here. Pretty low snow levels by the look of it this morning.

Not sure about that... looks like snow level is just about at Snoqualmie Pass.

[MossMan]

Raining and 40 degrees currently.

[Jesse]

Not sure about that... looks like snow level is just about at Snoqualmie Pass.

That’s a low pass. Lowest in the Cascades between the Columbia and the Fraser!

[Jesse]

The models sure have trended ridgy. This feels more like a situation where we will get slammed by the jet in a few weeks before hopefully “resetting”, rather than getting upper level cold any time in the next 10-14 days.

[Geos]

Not sure about that... looks like snow level is just about at Snoqualmie Pass.

 

Looking up the Skykomish Valley it looks like it's just above Skykomish this morning.

[TT-SEA]

That’s a low pass. Lowest in the Cascades between the Columbia and the Fraser!

 

 

I think of low snow levels at this time of year being close to my backyard.   And its not close this morning.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS trough just a bit cooler this weekend due to bit better amplification of ridge.

[umadbro]

Ain't happenin this year folks. We blew our wad last year.

 

Que the triggered.

[FroYoBro]

Ain't happenin this year folks. We blew our wad last year.

 

Que the triggered.

 

¿Que pasa? 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS

 

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

¿Que pasa?

Great... now I want Mexican food

[Timmy]

Ain't happenin this year folks. We blew our wad last year.

 

Que the triggered.

UrefractingBro?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 MEGA Block!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/168/500h_anom.na.png

[MossMan]

Day 7 MEGA Block!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/168/500h_anom.na.png

If it was July I would take the day off and go jetsking!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Hummm . . .

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

·

1h

 

 

Worried about Invest #94W out over the West Pacific and how the models may be struggling to resolve the correct intensity/track, and resulting interaction with the North Pacific Jet. Could spark some volatility in the medium-range model U.S. forecasts during the 11-15d period.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Tilt block, TILT!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

 

Hummm . . .

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

·

1h

 

 

Worried about Invest #94W out over the West Pacific and how the models may be struggling to resolve the correct intensity/track, and resulting interaction with the North Pacific Jet. Could spark some volatility in the medium-range model U.S. forecasts during the 11-15d period.

 

 

Perfect. This means we can throw out any clown range runs we don't like.

[Gradient Keeper]

One thing is for sure, through day 8-9 the block is much more sturdy/upright than previous runs. That I do like.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017113012/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Geos]

Day 8 Tilt block, TILT!

 

 

Do we want it to tilt back into western Alaska more?

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Hummm . . .

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

·

1h

 

 

Worried about Invest #94W out over the West Pacific and how the models may be struggling to resolve the correct intensity/track, and resulting interaction with the North Pacific Jet. Could spark some volatility in the medium-range model U.S. forecasts during the 11-15d period.

 

Wondering if and how this might affect the massive +PNA forecast next week.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Wondering if and how this might affect the massive +PNA forecast next week.

Wasn't there something we used to talk about where big typhoons over in the West Pacific later on leads to something here in the PNW?  Maybe colder weather or big wind storms?  I seem to remember something about that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Do we want it to tilt back into western Alaska more?

I was 'hoping' it to build north and tilt ---> into Northwest Territories which would abruptly shift the flow to northeast across Alberta, southeast BC and then into north-central Washington.