November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

In terms of waiting for things to really get good, I think a best case scenario is mid December. But more likely, end of December/early January. Worst case? Leading analog 1989 didn't get good until February. For some places, that month was amazing. OLM saw 27" of snow in Feb 1990.

 

But like I said, waiting that long is probably worst case scenario.

I think worst case scenario would be that no notable winter events occur. It’s always on the table!!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMC quite amplified with a strong block 145 W edging to just offshore. Big time "fake cold" pattern under a strong fog/inversion ridge. 12z CMCE agrees.

[snow_wizard]

In terms of waiting for things to really get good, I think a best case scenario is mid December. But more likely, end of December/early January. Worst case? Leading analog 1989 didn't get good until February. For some places, that month was amazing. OLM saw 27" of snow in Feb 1990.

 

But like I said, waiting that long is probably worst case scenario.

 

I was just thinking about February 1990 a little bit ago.  Great example of how things can work out even when it takes a while to get going.  For that matter nothing at all happened in 1988-89 either until early January.  Often times the longer things wait (to a point) the better it turns out overall.  As I've mentioned before it was actually abnormal to have front loaded winters in the past.

[snow_wizard]

I think worst case scenario would be that no notable winter events occur. It’s always on the table!!

 

I'm 100% on this winter.  Don't see how we get nothing.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF

 

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112512/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112512/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112512/192/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

As for the possible early December cold snap there are two things that could still salvage it.

 

1. The MJO wave ends up more amplified and/or slower moving through octants 3 - 5.

 

2. North Pacific black ends up joining with the cross polar block extension being shown extending from the -NAO.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm 100% on this winter. Don't see how we get nothing.

Not to say you’re wrong but aren’t you 100% on for every winter? Reading back in the forum for previous years it seems like a similar pattern. Maybe it is just me.

[snow_wizard]

12z ECMWF

 

Day 5

 

 

Day 7

 

 

Day 8

 

Better.  

 

You can clearly see the opportunity for the block to join with the cross polar block at day 5.  The best GFS run a few runs ago showed those two joining forces.

[snow_wizard]

Not to say you’re wrong but aren’t you 100% on for every winter? Reading back in the forum for previous years it seems like a similar pattern. Maybe it is just me.

 

Not at all.  I haven't been this sure since 2008.  There are some years that are just perfect.

 

Just to give you an idea I have emailed Scott Sistek at KOMO about this winter and I haven't done that for several years now.  I want to be on the record.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not at all. I haven't been this sure since 2008. There are some years that are just perfect.

 

Just to give you an idea I have emailed Scott Sistek at KOMO about this winter and I haven't done that for several years now. I want to be on the record.

Fair enough — I am feeling good about it too and it might just be your overal past positive outlook in years past. Here is looking forward to epic snow and cold!

 

I am curious what Scott has to say.

[Jesse]

As for the possible early November cold snap there are two things that could still salvage it.

 

1. The MJO wave ends up more amplified and/or slower moving through octants 3 - 5, or the North Pacific black ends up joining with the cross polar block extension being shown extending from the -NAO.

You must mean December.

[Front Ranger]

I think worst case scenario would be that no notable winter events occur. It’s always on the table!!

 

Obviously. 

 

But I don't think that's a very realistic worst case scenario. In this case.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112512/216/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

You must mean December.

 

Oops.

[Front Ranger]

Not to say you’re wrong but aren’t you 100% on for every winter? Reading back in the forum for previous years it seems like a similar pattern. Maybe it is just me.

 

He gets excited most years in the fall (and then has a meltdown by January if it's failed to deliver), but he's definitely more excited about this year than most.

 

The SEI is off the charts.

[snow_wizard]

Fair enough — I am feeling good about it too and it might just be your overal past positive outlook in years past. Here is looking forward to epic snow and cold!

 

I am curious what Scott has to say.

 

He kind of agrees with everyone on here that the freak warmth the other day was a great sign.

[Jesse]

I'm 100% on this winter. Don't see how we get nothing.

I feel ya. I’m sure we will see something too. Just seems overzealous to totally rule the possibility out.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro = shades of 2005?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112512/240/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

He gets excited most years in the fall (and then has a meltdown by January if it's failed to deliver), but he's definitely more excited about this year than most.

 

The SEI is off the charts.

 

Yup.  I have a lot of faith in that high October NPS leading to great things.  Couple that with being near a very deep solar minimum (on the downhill side of the cycle), cold ENSO, and the overall blockiness and you have quite the perfect storm.  Another thing I'm placing some confidence in is the three mega troughs late Sep - early Nov.  Things like that in a cold ENSO season never lead to nothing.

[snow_wizard]

12z Euro = shades of 2005?

 

All of the models seem to be locked onto a pattern that will bring our first hard freeze.  That's a start at least.

[Gradient Keeper]

I did like the more amplified ridge/block on 12z CMC/Euro though. I still would not entirely rule out improvement on the next few runs due to -PNA forecast to tank and slightly negative -EPO.

 

[Front Ranger]

Yup.  I have a lot of faith in that high October NPS leading to great things.  Couple that with being near a very deep solar minimum (on the downhill side of the cycle), cold ENSO, and the overall blockiness and you have quite the perfect storm.

 

[Jesse]

All of the models seem to be locked onto a pattern that will bring our first hard freeze. That's a start at least.

Agreed. I can definitely live with the 12z Euro. Tim’s roses need a break.

[TT-SEA]

Agreed. I can definitely live with the 12z Euro. Tim’s roses need a break.

 

 

They really do.   

[Front Ranger]

I did like the more amplified ridge/block on 12z CMC/Euro though. I still would not entirely rule out improvement on the next few runs due to -PNA forecast to tank and slightly negative -EPO.

 

 

We often overlook the WPO (blocking further west in Alaska/the Aleutians/Bering Sea), but most legit Arctic outbreaks are preceded by a tanking WPO as well. The EPO is definitely more important for cold, but any block with good amplification will usually end up sending both indices negative.

[Front Ranger]

They really do.   

 

Go put some ice cubes on them.

[Jesse]

They really do.

I’ve got a big pair of hedge trimmers that might help.

[snow_wizard]

I did like the more amplified ridge/block on 12z CMC/Euro though. I still would not entirely rule out improvement on the next few runs due to -PNA forecast to tank and slightly negative -EPO.

 

 

Pretty hard to not get cold with the PNA and EPO both minus.

[TT-SEA]

I’ve got a big pair of hedge trimmers that might help.

 

Sweet... drive them up here.

[crf450ish]

Sure is nice not living in a maritime climate and worrying about whether or not I’ll have an actual winter. More of a matter of when vs if.....

[Jesse]

Sweet... drive them up here.

Roses are best pruned as close to the root as possible right?

[Phil]

Well Phil's prediction of us being anxious over the first half of December being lousy looks to be spot on.

The majority of December was always going to suck. I don't see any way around it.

 

The clown range will start lighting up later in December, then I'm thinking the big retrogression occurs in early January.

[Front Ranger]

The majority of December was always going to suck. I don't see any way around it.

 

The clown range will start lighting up later in December, then I'm thinking the big retrogression occurs in early January.

 

Unlike going into last summer, we're on the same page here. 

[Phil]

I did like the more amplified ridge/block on 12z CMC/Euro though. I still would not entirely rule out improvement on the next few runs due to -PNA forecast to tank and slightly negative -EPO.

 

The PNA/NAO synchronicity continues..no surprise.

 

Will have to dig up the results, but based on a monthly-scale statistical analysis I did a little while back, the PNA and NAO share signs in over 80% of months since 1950.

[Gradient Keeper]

We often overlook the WPO (blocking further west in Alaska/the Aleutians/Bering Sea), but most legit Arctic outbreaks are preceded by a tanking WPO as well. The EPO is definitely more important for cold, but any block with good amplification will usually end up sending both indices negative.

I wasn't sure how big of a player the WPO was. Thanks for the insight.

[Gradient Keeper]

@11:47 AM near west Gresham it's 47.2 with very breezy east winds. I just got done putting up more Christmas decorations n stuff outside and my hands are numb. I love it. With the various shades of gray in the sky and cold wind it at least FEELS like Winter today.

 

18z GFS in 1 hour 36 minutes!

[Phil]

Unlike last summer, and September, we're on the same page here.

FYP

[Deweydog]

Roses are best pruned as close to the root as possible right?

Bring the root ball. Better safe than sorry.

[Deweydog]

The majority of December was always going to suck. I don't see any way around it.

 

The clown range will start lighting up later in December, then I'm thinking the big retrogression occurs in early January.

MLK Day. He had a dream about sub-520dm thicknesses and lee side surface lows developing off VISL.