Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Artic blast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down. Not really. And our temps look like they will be more impressive here thanks to the surface lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 850mb is shown to bottom out at -8C here. 925mb at -4C. That’s pretty impressive for Nov 3. The speeding up of tomorrow’s system is definitely hurting our snow chances to the north. Heaviest precip falls during the middle of the day. 12Z CMC is further north with the precip on Sunday when compared to the GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down.Seems pretty consistent. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Seems pretty consistent. I agree. I think his post was more of a conversation starter... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Not really. And our temps look like they will be more impressive here thanks to the surface lows.Maybe I’m just comparing it to the crazier runs several days ago. Been preoccupied with school and Halloween activities since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Maybe I’m just comparing it to the crazier runs several days ago. Been preoccupied with school and Halloween activities since. Lowland snow is more likely in some areas than ever before. Post Halloween blues?? 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Lowland snow is more likely in some areas than ever before. Post Halloween blues??Blues? No had an awesome Halloween. Just was making a comment my perception of the models. I don’t think there will be any lowland snow down here though. Maybe up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Blues? No had an awesome Halloween. Just was making a comment my perception of the models. I don’t think there will be any lowland snow down here though. Maybe up north. Just giving you a hard time. Glad to hear you had a great Halloween! And I agree, looking better up north. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Maybe I’m just comparing it to the crazier runs several days ago. Been preoccupied with school and Halloween activities since.I think the coldest few runs had us getting into the mid 520's thickness-wise. Not too far off from what's currently shown. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 12Z ECMWF is much farther north with the Saturday night and Sunday system. It now shows southerly flow around Portland on Sunday. And what appears to be a 43-degree drizzle fest around Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 How much am I gonna get!?!?!? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 I think the EC will verify. It's too early for snow yet. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles. Seriously...it has almost an inch in Monmouth. Zero chance that happens. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 I would be happy with some flakes in the air over the weekend and a nice hard freeze Sunday or Monday night. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles. Saw some massive errors with the WRF last winter! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Can I just reiterate what a joke the WRF low resolution snow maps are. Really no point in looking at them other than for shits and giggles. I would have easily had over 40" last winter had they verified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Saw some massive errors with the WRF last winter!It seems to do better up here when it’s an overrunning situation with the cold air already in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 12z ECMWF shows more snow in the Puget Sound area by Sunday evening than both the 12z yesterday and the 00z last night, although it's still only a trace or so most areas (except Whatcom). I'm wondering if the model snowfall maps account for wet-bulb/dew points? Based off the surface temps shown at the time (upper 30s) and the 850s (-5c) I would think it wouldn't show any snow. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110112/washington/ecmwf_acc_snow_washington_108.pngInteresting. Looks decent for the Fraser outflow areas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 12Z ECMWF is much farther north with the Saturday night and Sunday system. It now shows southerly flow around Portland on Sunday. And what appears to be a 43-degree drizzle fest around Seattle.Glad to hear things aren’t trending warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 That would be the most snow i have ever seen at hood canal this time of year if it's correct. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 12Z ECMWF is much farther north with the Saturday night and Sunday system. It now shows southerly flow around Portland on Sunday. And what appears to be a 43-degree drizzle fest around Seattle. Looks the the ECMWF wobble is kicking in. I would not be surprised to see this shift a bit southward on future runs. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 That would be the most snow i have ever seen at hood canal this time of year if it's correct. We were hiking around the Lake Cushman area in early September this year and I was thinking about how frequently that area gets buried. This could be one of those times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 12z GFS shows varying amounts of snow from Everett to Olympia and up in Whatcom. Still not buying it for the greater Puget Sound I-5 corridor. Starting to think will see some flakes falling at like 34-35 deg. down to 500 ft. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Interesting. Looks decent for the Fraser outflow areas. Showing an inch here. Interesting. Snow in the wording for Saturday night here now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 For giggles, the 12z EPS control run has 850s close to -30C near the US/Canada border on November 11th. As far as I'm aware, that has never occurred in the satellite era, to this point. Edit: And near -30C in Alberta by days 6/7. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 I feel like models are really struggling with this because it's so unusual to have this setup like this so early. Who knows what the temp variances will be. IIRC, the late Nov, 2003 snow event in Eugene was expected to have snow levels down to 1500-2000 feet and it ended up with heavy enough precip to bring the snow level to the surface. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 For giggles, the 12z EPS control run has 850s close to -30C near the US/Canada border on November 11th. As far as I'm aware, that has never occurred in the satellite era, to this point. Haven't heard much from you lately. What are your thoughts right now going forward? Seems like November won't be as much of a western torch as you were anticipating, at least for the next 7-10 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 We were hiking around the Lake Cushman area in early September this year and I was thinking about how frequently that area gets buried. This could be one of those times.I had a place up there for about 2 years and I always knew they received a ton of snow but I was blown away how much I seen up there. I remember posting pics but it snowed 30 inches in like 20 hrs once. Had 37 on the ground and snow was on the ground for 3 months. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Haven't heard much from you lately. What are your thoughts right now going forward? Seems like November won't be as much of a western torch as you were anticipating, at least for the next 7-10 days.Yeah, sorry I've been swamped with work lately. Definitely not a good short term forecast on my part. Much faster MJO/KW propagation than I was thinking, so that early November ridge and mid-November trough were pushed forward quite a bit compared to my initial idea, even though the discontinuous retrogression and NPAC amplification verified. Since the MJO/KW is also shallower (given the propagatory speed is a direct consequence of depth), it will orbit back into the IO/EHEM much more quickly, as well, which statistically favors the coldest air being centered over North America as heat/mass fluxes increase into Eurasia. So, much of North America will likely experience colder than average temperatures for the month of November, given the PV will be on our side of the pole for the aforementioned reasons. So, November likely finishes below normal almost everywhere except for the E/SE USA and Alaska, if I had to guess right now. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Yeah, sorry I've been swamped with work lately. Definitely not a good short term forecast on my part. Much faster MJO/KW propagation than I was thinking, so that early November ridge and mid-November trough were pushed forward quite a bit compared to my initial idea, even though the discontinuous retrogression and NPAC amplification verified. Since the MJO/KW is also shallower (given the propagatory speed is a direct consequence of depth), it will orbit back into the IO/EHEM much more quickly, as well, which statistically favors the coldest air being centered over North America as heat/mass fluxes increase into Eurasia. So, much of North America will likely experience colder than average temperatures for the month of November, given the PV will be on our side of the pole for the aforementioned reasons. So, November likely finishes below normal almost everywhere except for the E/SE USA and Alaska, if I had to guess right now. No worries. Thanks for the update. I am curious how this will affect things going forward, since most conventional wisdom around here seemed to point to a warm November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Just even having a chance of some snow in the forecast this early for some places west of the cascades is pretty remarkable. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Komo says snow level as low as 500 ft I'm awfully close to that elevation 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 18z Nam looks a little further north with things on the weekend too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Really hope this northern trend doesn't continue with these systems. Would put us in the warm sector more often. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Really hope this northern trend doesn't continue with these systems. Would put us in the warm sector more often. The track of this storm will set the tone for the entire winter. Better hope it works out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 For giggles, the 12z EPS control run has 850s close to -30C near the US/Canada border on November 11th. As far as I'm aware, that has never occurred in the satellite era, to this point. Edit: And near -30C in Alberta by days 6/7.Maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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