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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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The last minute north trend has resumed after a hiatus last winter. From the 00z last night to the 18z today, the GFS has trended north with each consecutive run for the weekend system.

 

By this time tomorrow, we will all be in the warm sector and looking at 40 degree rain.  :mellow:

 

(As a side note, someone needs to bring back the 33 degree rain emoji... iFred?)

 

Day 3-4 isn't really last minute. ;)

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Technically, I suppose you're right.

 

Although considering we generally start tracking a system 10 days out (or more, if we are feeling extra weenie-ish), day 3-4 seems fairly last minute.

Maybe as the models get even better a couple weeks will be last minute!

 

Although we probably won’t be around to enjoy it since at that point the world will be ruled by our AI robot overlords and humans will merely be harvested as a source of biochemical energy.

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Technically, I suppose you're right. 

 

Although considering we generally start tracking a system 10 days out (or more, if we are feeling extra weenie-ish), day 3-4 seems fairly last minute. 

Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will. 

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Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh! You're the only one to have figured out the secret. Don't ruin it for everyone else.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Why is it that everyone tracks systems 10 days out? We all know confidence is very low in models in that range....so we do we (in general) even give them the slightest merit? I bet its because we all secretly want it to verify so we hinge our behavior on the hopes it will.

Why do you care what other people do with their free time? Why do you care how people choose to track these things? Why is it a big deal to have discussions about weather discussion on a forum made for weather discussions?

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Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days.  This thing does look impressively cold though.  I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days.  This thing does look impressively cold though.  I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast.

 

Yeah I got a feeling BLI will come away with several inches. That Fraser outflow looks strong.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Pretty shocking to see the NWS mentioning snow for the East Puget Sound lowlands on a few different days.  This thing does look impressively cold though.  I think BLI will come out a lot colder than currently forecast.

 

This trough will be fun to track, no doubt. Almost certainly going to be at least a little lowland snow somewhere.

 

It will also be interesting to see how the pattern evolves after the upcoming cold. The ensembles seem split between some sort of -EPO ridge reload, or a full retrogression into Siberia that would open up the West to a warm pattern.

A forum for the end of the world.

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FWIW, 00z NAM shows the weekend system to come in at the mouth of the Columbia - similar to the 18z GFS. Can't tell where it heads after this though.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

If you run the loop... its headed southeast towards Salem.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS shows more snow for Puget Sound by Sunday night than the 18z did.

 

I am still having a hard time believing it though. If I remember correctly, generally models have a tendency to draw cold air in too quick and push it out too fast. Thinking this is one of those times.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_18.png

Exciting to think of snow again.

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Yeah regardless of what happens it's pretty amazing we are even discussing the possibility in the first week of November.

So true! Verify or not it is a nice a fat dangling carrot for possible better opportunities later this winter ...

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 Somebody on twitter posted they snow "legit rain/snow" today in Renton. 

 

Yea sure, ok

 

It was in the mid 50s all day in Renton.   Seems very likely that is a "legit" report.   :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS shows more snow for Puget Sound by Sunday night than the 18z did.

 

I am still having a hard time believing it though. If I remember correctly, generally models have a tendency to draw cold air in too quick and push it out too fast. Thinking this is one of those times.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_18.png

 

 

A weaker low and further north track on this run.  Good combo for us.  Besides that this is the coldest run yet.  This is looking impressive.

 

It will interesting to see what kind of min temps SEA comes up with.  As for drawing in cold air...Friday looks fabulous with northerly gradients straight down the Sound.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So true! Verify or not it is a nice a fat dangling carrot for possible better opportunities later this winter ...

 

We are in very company analog wise the way this is playing out.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The really big news in the shorter term is the 0z advects cold air down Puget Sound very effectively Thursday and Friday.  A couple of days that was not the case.  We will actually see some Fraser River air make it to Seattle.  Maybe a little bit of snow Friday morning before the moisture runs out.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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