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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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This run shows above normal heights over the GOA continuing right to mid month.  This is amazing.  Nearly endless above normal heights and pressure out there for weeks now.  If this continues the winter will be truly historic.  Past history indicates our winters that are cold all the way through have above normal heights / pressure over the NE Pacific in both October and November.  That is a rare occurrence and it bodes well for a very cold winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00z GFS was quite different. The block looks much different this run with rex block after day 7 near the sweet spot. This run is very close to being really cold in the long range.

Still looks like the coldest air will be to the east

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Still looks like the coldest air will be to the east

 

It's still a good setup.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's still a good setup.

If we could just get that low to keep droppin'. We still need a decent snowpack in Central Oregon and the Columbia Basin to be pulling off this kind of gap event.  Mountain wave events are only effective at generating snow here if it's Siberian/Arctic air coming over us like in Dec of 2013 because of the effects of downsloping so even if the low dropped south enough offshore, I don't think the east winds would be bringing in enough cold air at the surface.  Definitely need to build that snowpack east of the cascades.  Hopefully this weekend will accomplish that.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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00z ECMWF in 24 inutes!

Let's drop that L down

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1938-39 looks interesting as a possible analog. -ENSO/-QBO winter with a solidly cold first half of November. Bellingham was 44/26 on the 5th, followed by 44/22 on the 10th. There was widespread snowfall in the I-5 corridor around the 11th-12th, including PDX:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1938/11/12/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

The back end of that winter brought an impressive gorge blast/snowstorm which was similar in timing and nature to Feb. 2014. PDX was 27/23 on 2/9/1939 with 4" of snow, storm total of 5.1" over three days. Estacada got buried by 13" on the 8th, with 22" falling between the 7th-10th. 

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The 0z ECMWF looks a little more generous for northern areas in terms of moisture tomorrow night; kind of similiar to what the NAM was showing. The WRF dries most of the north sound out before 5pm tomorrow, which seems crazy given the low is only starting to form north of Vancouver Island right now. It will be interesting which model wins out and to see how the ECMWF handles Sunday's low; it was substantially further north than all other models on the 12z run but the clear trend seems to be to take the low further south.

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Nice little snow event in my area Saturday night on the WRF.  No doubt that low takes a perfect track for snow here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00Z ECMWF shows lots of precip on Saturday night and Sunday... but the 850mb temp is around -3C in the Seattle area on Sunday morning and -2C by afternoon. 

 

Looks like a cold rain/drizzle event even for me.  

 

Ignore the WRF... it was wrong all last winter when it disagreed with the ECMWF on snow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is more believable than both the GFS and WRF in my opinion.

 

Absolutely.   And the 1/10th of inch of snow it shows it probably overstated as well.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF shows lots of precip on Saturday night and Sunday... but the 850mb temp is around -3C in the Seattle area on Sunday morning and -2C by afternoon. 

 

Looks like a cold rain/drizzle event even for me.  

 

Ignore the WRF... it was wrong all last winter when it disagreed with the ECMWF on snow.

Agreed the WRF is reliably in the epic fail category 93.2% of the time.

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This is more believable than both the GFS and WRF in my opinion.

 

It sends a lot more moisture further north, pretty good for this area but not so good for areas that aren't directly in the path of the outflow. It's almost identical to how its earlier 12z run handled it. The WRF performance when it comes to snow situations has been dismal, but the GFS usually does a little better.

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A damp cool morning. Picked up 0.18" of an inch of rain overnight even though there was almost nothing on radar. Have to love that fall upslope. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A weaker low and further north track on this run.  Good combo for us.  Besides that this is the coldest run yet.  This is looking impressive.

 

It will interesting to see what kind of min temps SEA comes up with.  As for drawing in cold air...Friday looks fabulous with northerly gradients straight down the Sound.

 

Looking/sounding good.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is more believable than both the GFS and WRF in my opinion.

 

About an inch, I'll take that for November 4th-5th.

 

Sitting at 46 right now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Sandpoint, ID getting some nice snowfall this morning with Arctic seepage.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kszt&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

 

My step-brother whom I have never met just moved there...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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JMA forecast for November is out.  Got it from tweets from @BenNollWeather

 

attachicon.gifjmaNovember.jpg

500MB heights

 

 

attachicon.gifJMANovembertemps.jpg

Temp anomaly

 

The problem with these modeled monthly outlooks is they mostly seem to just extrapolate the current pattern, leaning heavily on persistence. Sometimes that works, sometimes the pattern changes pretty quickly.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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The problem with these modeled monthly outlooks is they mostly seem to just extrapolate the current pattern, leaning heavily on persistence. Sometimes that works, sometimes the pattern changes pretty quickly.

 

More or less. The CFS monthlies change constantly. The only consistent has been a cold March.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Nice. I visited Sandpoint in September... beautiful area. Probably will end up moving there within a year or two.

 

I love the Lake Couer d'Alene area as well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’d love to move there, but I wonder how practical it would be. I haven’t spent enough time there. I like our east side bubble

 

I doubt we would ever move.   We love this area.

 

But the area south of Couer d'Alene along the west side of the lake is absolutely gorgeous.   I could live there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The problem with these modeled monthly outlooks is they mostly seem to just extrapolate the current pattern, leaning heavily on persistence. Sometimes that works, sometimes the pattern changes pretty quickly.

It's not just that model though, it is also the JMA, the POAMA, the CanSips, the Euro Weeklies and even the regular Euro for day 11-15,, and a lot of pro mets who do long range forecasting, like for energy interests are calling for this pattern.

 

Obviously they could all be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time, but this isn't just a random one time run of a long range model showing it.  

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That's a nice area too. We visited both Hayden and Couer D'Alene in addition to Sandpoint and Boise.

 

While Couer D'Alene itself is geared toward older, lower-income houses Hayden seems to be a vibrant community with lots of newly renovated homes and neighborhoods.

 

Ultimately it's between Sandpoint, Hayden, and Boise but will most likely be either Sandpoint or Hayden depending on job opportunities.

 

Not a fan of Boise at all.   Too dry.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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