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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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It has been a cloudy stretch over here and I can't remember the last time I saw the sun for more than an hour.  I was spoiled with the sunshine back in AZ and coming back to Chi it really makes you appreciate that natural Vitamin D and energy from the Sun.  Hope to see some peaks of sun later this afternoon.  With the clouds hanging tough, the overnight temps have kept the means AN and will continue into next week.

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@ClintonThe Euro Weeklies from last night are dialing in on the LRC's more notable storms/active SW Flow late JAN pattern and early FEB.  I'm not even going to post the FEB snow maps because they are just freakin' ridiculously snowy.  Another Back-Loaded Winter???  For many on here that may be the outcome (including MBY), Yes, but for those up north its going to be #endlesswinter well into Spring.  I just really hope that things begin to line up and the models start to digest the teleconnections or mother nature flips the switch on us!

 

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@sumweatherdude, was it you or someone else who posted the Euro Weeklies 10mb zonal winds?  Anyway, the PV guru @judahcohen says his AI learning machine is showing a SSW event late JAN into FEB and coincides with the Euro Weeklies run last night.  I have learned from him that prior to a major disruption, it tends to warm up across the CONUS so we can very well be going through this stretch right now.

 

FlvZ40BX0AAHH_9?format=jpg&name=large

 

 

In similar fashion, the CFSv2 weeklies are in agreement as well that a strong SW Flow pattern evolves...I almost certain that @hawkstwelvewill cash in on another Big Dog later this month and into the MSP region.  I originally thought the pattern would press farther south by this time in JAN but that obviously is not happening.  

wk3.wk4_20230105.z500.png

 

 

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Good morning! Yes, it did snow here in Grand Rapids yesterday. And for a while there was a trace of snow on the ground in MBY but that snow is now all melted. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 36/33 there was 0.09” of precipitation of that a trace was snow fall. There was no reported sunshine but there was a thin spot to the SW here at my house just before sunset. The temperature held around 33 for much of the overnight and at this current time it is 34 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 57 was set in 2008 and the record low of -12 was set in 1988. The largest snow fall of 11.0” was in 1918 in more recent times there was a snow fall of 7.6” in 2004. There looks like there could be some sunshine over the weekend with temperatures above average in the mid to upper 30’s for highs and mid to upper 20’s for lows. It has not fallen below 32 in the last 8 days.

 

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

@ClintonThe Euro Weeklies from last night are dialing in on the LRC's more notable storms/active SW Flow late JAN pattern and early FEB.  I'm not even going to post the FEB snow maps because they are just freakin' ridiculously snowy.  Another Back-Loaded Winter???  For many on here that may be the outcome (including MBY), Yes, but for those up north its going to be #endlesswinter well into Spring.  I just really hope that things begin to line up and the models start to digest the teleconnections or mother nature flips the switch on us!

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

@sumweatherdude, was it you or someone else who posted the Euro Weeklies 10mb zonal winds?  Anyway, the PV guru @judahcohen says his AI learning machine is showing a SSW event late JAN into FEB and coincides with the Euro Weeklies run last night.  I have learned from him that prior to a major disruption, it tends to warm up across the CONUS so we can very well be going through this stretch right now.

 

FlvZ40BX0AAHH_9?format=jpg&name=large

 

 

In similar fashion, the CFSv2 weeklies are in agreement as well that a strong SW Flow pattern evolves...I almost certain that @hawkstwelvewill cash in on another Big Dog later this month and into the MSP region.  I originally thought the pattern would press farther south by this time in JAN but that obviously is not happening.  

wk3.wk4_20230105.z500.png

 

 

It certainly makes since to me and fits my thinking.  The 2 biggest storms of this years LRC should show up in that time.

Jan31st -Feb 3rd

Feb 9th - Feb 11th

I also expect a long lasting Artic outbreak from late in week 3 through at least the first 3 weeks of February.  All the players and LR forecasting techniques point to that MJO, LRC, Cahirs Connection.

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We have picked up 0.15" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal. A few more light showers this morning before sun returns this PM. We should see our first freezing temperature of the year (since December 29th) by tomorrow morning. It has been an incredibly warm start to 2023. Temps should return to near normal this weekend and stay near there for at least the next week to 10 days. Most models still show a chance of some snow arriving on Sunday night and ending by the Monday AM commute. This has the potential to be the largest snow event of the season. Of course our biggest snow event so far has been 0.5" 😀
The record high for today is 68.8 degrees set in 2007. The record low is 4 below zero from 1904. Record rain is the 1.30" that fell in 1962. Our record daily snow is the 5.5" that fell today in 1970.
image.png.da34fd6e69ffe0748319b83fadabfe8d.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, @Stacsh has had it rough in the snow dept. We should all feel horrible for him and his locale there in Grand Rapids. Can't imagine the tragedy of an all-time #2 year. Oh the travesty!!

206307666_GRR2022WxStats.png.55d12afe8fd10c7e784e881e09aa70ce.png

 

 

It was great the 5 days it was on the ground this year.   Last year it didn't have staying power either.     What good is snow in the winter when it just melts in 2-3 days?   

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Not the AFD you want to see in the middle of winter:

 

- LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY -     TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING LATEST   RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 3KM NAM SUGGEST THAT LIGHT PCPN WILL LINGER   FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH A SFC/UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR   REGION. PCPN WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS   AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVEN THAT FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR   AREA SHOW AN UNSATURATED DGZ.     ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WOULD BE ISOLATED. SFC   TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE IN THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE ATTM WITH JUST   WET CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY DURING THE EARLY MORNING   HRS AND MAY EVEN BUMP UP A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND DAYBREAK. GIVEN   THESE MARGINAL TEMPS WE THINK ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS AM   WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.     THE LIGHT LINGERING PCPN TODAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END   TONIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM   THE NW AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE   ATMOSPHERE.     - FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK -    

 

RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SFC/ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR WX WITH   PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL   AVG AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH   TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED/THUR AFTER   THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.  

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

It has been a cloudy stretch over here and I can't remember the last time I saw the sun for more than an hour.  I was spoiled with the sunshine back in AZ and coming back to Chi it really makes you appreciate that natural Vitamin D and energy from the Sun.  Hope to see some peaks of sun later this afternoon.  With the clouds hanging tough, the overnight temps have kept the means AN and will continue into next week.

I think it has been a month for me since I saw the sun shining. Crazy! just a couple of days ago, I saw a small glimpse of the sun peeking and I literally ran to the window, so that I can capture some vitamin D on me. You must be going nuts after all that sunshine you have encountered back in AZ .

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

I think it has been a month for me since I saw the sun shining. Crazy! just a couple of days ago, I saw a small glimpse of the sun peeking and I literally ran to the window, so that I can capture some vitamin D on me. You must be going nuts after all that sunshine you have encountered back in AZ .

This x100!

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14 hours ago, Niko said:

@jaster220So much for our snowshowers today, instead we are getting rainshowers w/ temps in the 30s tanite.

Btw: I really hope this extended outlook is false because by mid month, it has us in the 40s w/ rain. Still plenty of time for changes, but seeing that type of weather almost in the heart of winter is quite disappointing. Hoping that changes as we have plenty of winter left anyway. I believe that is the storm @Clinton has been talking about in regards to the LRC.

Not only is it a "ZZZZZZ-maggedon" we almost surely will get winter in spring just like it's been in this triple Nina so far.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It was great the 5 days it was on the ground this year.   Last year it didn't have staying power either.     What good is snow in the winter when it just melts in 2-3 days?   

Sure, we all want our snow and have it stay too. But I'd gladly see storms adding up to nearly 120" of snow and have it melt off, then not have the storms at all. How much more boring it has been for my place during 2022 with less than 1/3 of GR's total.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like spring here for a week.  
Would love to get rain though.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, Andie said:

Looks like spring here for a week.  
Would love to get rain though.  

It feels like Spring here in S MI also in terms of MI standards. It feels  balmy w readings that were in the 40s and 50s just recently, averaging well above normal. Now we are back in the 30s for highs, but still averaging AN. My average high is 32F, just to give ya an idea. We are backin the 40s for early net week and remain dry until midweek. Then, we see what Ma Nature brings.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I had read El Niño was trying to return. 
Even if we were neutral Texas would likely get some rain. 
But this Niña is relentless and rain just can’t manage to form.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The GFS beginning to show some consistency with the storm for next week.  A nice little bowling ball rolling across the sub.

1673665200-FtTy19AuewE.png

Even better trends showing up in the long range, as I have anticipated the pattern going cold during the 3rd week of January.  Sure looks like the GFS is catching on to the MJO moving into the cold phases.  The last 3 runs of the GFS

image.thumb.gif.ae7a53acedba5e4cd0ae93ea20057e92.gif

While it's a little messy at this range LRC followers will recognize the split flow with the cut-off low part of the pattern beginning to be sniffed out by the GFS.

gfs_z500a_namer_51.png

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18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS beginning to show some consistency with the storm for next week.  A nice little bowling ball rolling across the sub.

1673665200-FtTy19AuewE.png

Even better trends showing up in the long range, as I have anticipated the pattern going cold during the 3rd week of January.  Sure looks like the GFS is catching on to the MJO moving into the cold phases.  The last 3 runs of the GFS

image.thumb.gif.ae7a53acedba5e4cd0ae93ea20057e92.gif

While it's a little messy at this range LRC followers will recognize the split flow with the cut-off low part of the pattern beginning to be sniffed out by the GFS.

gfs_z500a_namer_51.png

Big changes showing up around the 18th-20th across the NE PAC in both the EPS/GEFS that sets up a great pattern to "SEED" real arctic air into the lower 48 for the last 1/3rd of JAN.

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Good morning! Our mild mostly snowless start to January continues. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 35/31 there was a total of 0.14” of rain and melted snow. 0.6” of snow fall was officially reported. There were some cars with snow on them last night not sure where they were with that snow fell onto the cars. Here in MBY there was a trace of snow on the ground for the 2nd night in a row. There was no sunshine officially yesterday but once again there was a few minutes of thin clouds here that the sun could be seen thru. The temperature held around 32/31 all through the overnight and the current temperature in MBY is 32. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 63 was set in 2008 and the record low of -15 was set in 1988. The record snow fall amount of 5.4” was in 1962.

 

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Big changes showing up around the 18th-20th across the NE PAC in both the EPS/GEFS that sets up a great pattern to "SEED" real arctic air into the lower 48 for the last 1/3rd of JAN

There is very little ice on the Great Lakes and for that matter even the inland lakes so if there is a major arctic air flowing across the lakes there could once again be some big time lake events. We shall see.

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2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There is very little ice on the Great Lakes and for that matter even the inland lakes so if there is a major arctic air flowing across the lakes there could once again be some big time lake events. We shall see.

Yup, the water temps are AN and I would expect to see the snow that does fall to stick around for a while bc a colder pattern should have legs into FEB.

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45 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yup, the water temps are AN and I would expect to see the snow that does fall to stick around for a while bc a colder pattern should have legs into FEB.

If I recall correctly, 11-12 was on the analog seasons lists. This feels like that except Jan of '12 was actually a pretty snowy month. This is just garbage though. If the cold is in and out like so far, this could challenge the "worst winters" list for our region at least. Look at the Philly poster's list of low snow years and you'll see 07-08. When we were getting the MSP treatment they were getting nada.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I've been watching next storm (Fleur)? appear/disappear/appear on the GFS for a week now. It targets my location on a Friday-13th on which dates Motorcycle Rally's are held in Port Dover, Ontario (32 miles due South of my location) similar to Sturgis, South Dakota just not at the same scale. The Main street will be shut down to vehicular traffic and venders are to set up but attendance may be affected by the weather. Next Friday 13th is in October.

This storm is computer forecast to become massive as it approaches the east coast.   

Screenshot 2023-01-07.jpg

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Send Rain 🌧🌧🌧

Next 2 weeks

Highs in 60’s 

Lows in 40’s 

No rain forecast. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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11 hours ago, Andie said:

I had read El Niño was trying to return. 
Even if we were neutral Texas would likely get some rain. 
But this Niña is relentless and rain just can’t manage to form.  

Its been Niño like in California with the parade of powerful storms for the past 2 weeks.

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We are now into a stretch of near to slightly above normal temps for at least the next week. HIgh temps should average in the low to mid-40's - normal high temps are in the upper 30's and lows in the low to mid-20's. There still is a chance for some spots to pick up some measurable wet snow tomorrow night into Monday morning. Relative elevation will play a role in who sees any actual accumulation on non-paved surfaces. Most models are painting from 0.5" to at most 2.0" across the county. Incredibly for some this may be the largest snowfall so far this winter season. Here in East Nantmeal the most snow from one event has been the 0.5" on 12/23.
The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1907. The record low was set just 9 years ago with a 1.6 degree below zero reading. The record precipitation record is the 2.12" of water equivalent in 1996. That is also the record snow for today with the 22.8" that fell during day one of our 5th largest all-time snowstorm here in Chester County. When the storm ended on the 8th we had a 28.9" storm total.
image.png.7380ec1e94fbcb88ac836cd73659c01b.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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NOAA:

The next chance for
widespread precipitation will be centered late Thursday into Friday
once a midweek Pacific wave comes onshore and aids in the development
of low pressure. Plenty of uncertainties still exist at this time
regarding the longwave pattern (progressive vs. possible cut-off low)
and thermal profile over SE MI, which will have implications on
p-types.

 

Lets see how this plays out, but if I were to guess, w/ the way this winter has been going, I'd go w/ a rainstorm instead of snow. I.e., rain, heavy at times on Thursday and then Friday rain tapering off to a few snowshowers as colder air filters in, as the low moves away in a SE direction w/ no accumulations expected, perhaps a coating, if that. Later that evening, skies remain mostly cloudy and cold w/ lows in the 20s, w/ patches of ice forming, due to flooding.

This will be the storm for S MI, watch!!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

The next chance for
widespread precipitation will be centered late Thursday into Friday
once a midweek Pacific wave comes onshore and aids in the development
of low pressure. Plenty of uncertainties still exist at this time
regarding the longwave pattern (progressive vs. possible cut-off low)
and thermal profile over SE MI, which will have implications on
p-types.

 

Lets see how this plays out, but if I were to guess, w/ the way this winter has been going, I'd go w/ a rainstorm instead of snow.

Me too.  The pattern is weird this year.  Although we had a dusting of snow last night which was a surprise. So who knows. 

image.jpg

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