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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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As @Clinton noted, sketchy set-up is the rule of thumb here. Since this was just posted, and no doubt outlines the scenario much better than DTX's afd would, I will share this from the ORD Met. (notice he mentions the cut-off scenario having to produce it's own cold as I alluded to earlier)

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While it's a tenuous setup and the antecedent air mass isn't good, it has my attention since there's nothing else to track until possibly reshuffling the pattern later in the month.

Aside from the late season like air mass, the synoptic pieces are good if things work out well: A juiced southern stream wave associated with the latest potent California AR event, deepening surface low tracking near the Ohio Valley into the eastern Lakes, and a 1030-1035 mb high pressure spreading in from the northern Plains.

Not particularly optimistic yet for the Chicago metro since the improved GFS and ECMWF runs (vs 00z last night) still would put us too far northwest. But at least don't have to squint to see what we'd need, early enough negative tilt of the main wave and/or phasing or constructive interaction with an incoming northern stream wave, to get a swath of heavy wet snow farther northwest.

Unfortunately it remains a thread the needle type setup due to the air mass and needing things to break right as described above. It does have a more classic synoptic setup than the closed low depiction of GFS runs Saturday and prior that would be heavily reliant on dynamic cooling (while the ECMWF runs had no cold air to speak of), so maybe a bit better chance of success.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, Clinton said:

Models are wanting to deliver some snow for ya this coming weekend but ensembles are sketchy. 

True, in fact, I'll take ensemble #11 pls 😉. The fact remains that this low looks like it will be tracking through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Lakes. Also, a strong high pressure to the north should help as well. We will see what happens, but, its something to pay close attn, since no other storm will be happening to track.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good to see back to back runs of the GFS bringing down the artic air the 3rd week of the month.  Real glad it will be in place for the big dog on the 31st.

I have a strong feeling that January will go out w/ a bang..watch! It will not disappoint. Back-loaded winter in the works amigo!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

I have a strong feeling that January will go out w/ a bang..watch! It will not disappoint. Back-loaded winter in the works amigo!

There is at least some historical precedent for that scenario. Wrt all boring January scenarios i.e. too warm, too cold, and just plain uneventful. The very mild JAN '90 ended with a 2 foot blizzard for NWMI. I moved to Traverse City just 8 months later and heard the stories from all my coworkers of how they couldn't even get home after work and walked to motels to spend the night. And that was right in the city. Ofc GHD-2 came on the heals of a rather uneventful DEC & JAN combo. Bliz of '82 hit Jan 31st after a JAN that had most storms going too far north. That storm treated DTW very well. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Pssssttttt........ @jaster220..have ya seen the latest Euro for late next week. I know its several days away, but always good to have the Euro on board.

I'm not looking at models after the last several fiascos. This will just be another system where the models paint the rosiest of portrayals and in the end most of my qpf falls in liquid form. And this one has even an better shot at that since thermals are the big issue. Anyways, until proven wrong I'm sticking with that glass half empty mantra. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

As @Clinton noted, sketchy set-up is the rule of thumb here. Since this was just posted, and no doubt outlines the scenario much better than DTX's afd would, I will share this from the ORD Met. (notice he mentions the cut-off scenario having to produce it's own cold as I alluded to earlier)

 

 

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51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

There is at least some historical precedent for that scenario. Wrt all boring January scenarios i.e. too warm, too cold, and just plain uneventful. The very mild JAN '90 ended with a 2 foot blizzard for NWMI. I moved to Traverse City just 8 months ago later and heard the stories from all my coworkers of how they couldn't even get home after work and walked to motels to spend the night. And that was right in the city. Ofc GHD-2 came on the heals of a rather uneventful DEC & JAN combo. Bliz of '82 hit Jan 31st after a JAN that had most storms going too far north. That storm treated DTW very well. 

The last 2 Winters here have been from Feb 1st to March 10th and this one looks to be another repeat.  This one may be different because I think we'll have a lot of artic air around and keep the snow on longer.  I'm far enough south the sun in February really goes to work on snow cover fast.

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45 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm not looking at models after the last several fiascos. This will just be another system where the models paint the rosiest of portrayals and in the end most of my qpf falls in liquid form. And this one has even an better shot at that since thermals are the big issue. Anyways, until proven wrong I'm sticking with that glass half empty mantra. 

Still many days to track this storm, but no matter what happens amigo, its fun to see its outcome. If it does end up being a rainer, then we move on to the Big Dog (31st) that Clinton is mentioning. But, for now, w/ this upcoming storm, we have a chance for accumulating snowfall and could linger into Friday as well. We will see what happens. Main story here is that we have at least something to track next week, considering the crazy pattern that we are in.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 minutes ago, Niko said:

Still many days to track this storm, but no matter what happens amigo, its fun to see its outcome. If it does end up being a rainer, then we move on to the Big Dog (31st) that Clinton is mentioning. But, for now, w/ this upcoming storm, we have a chance for accumulating snowfall and could linger into Friday as well. We will see what happens. Main story here is that we have at least something to track next week, considering the crazy pattern that we are in.

 

Well, let us hope so. I got burned-out tracking what I thought would be a much bigger deal at Christmas. Shoulda just rode those "blues" on the ensembles and never looked at all those Operational models showing dbl digit hits here. Mostly it was the CMC and GFS. I don't recall the Euro showing anything too crazy here, and certainly the NAM not being too excited was a canary in the coal mine moment. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So, you're saying that January '33 was soooo bad it made the list twice??

Whoops in 3rd place is 1934 with 1.4" there were so many years in the 1930's with low snow fall totals in January. Thanks for seeing that. I also updated to show the correct year.

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Most amazing snowless month I am aware of is Feb '98 when Traverse City recorded a big fat 0.0" total for the month. 

February 1998 GR only recorded 0.5" of snow fall for the least snow fall for February at GR. 1998 was also the 2nd warmest February on record as well.

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Good to see back to back runs of the GFS bringing down the artic air the 3rd week of the month.  Real glad it will be in place for the big dog on the 31st.

Yes. I have had a fair bit of thought that everything would line up one round this season and that's right in the appropriate time window. 

The alternate part of this deal until then is going to produce the extremes reminiscent of last summer. Droughty regions in TX, western OK, KS and parts of NW Nebraska all look to continue the persistence trend until the compressed jet battering Cali into "once a generation" flooding submission connects later into the end of winter. 

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Good morning! Yesterday was yet another cloudy mild snowless January day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 32/28 there was no rain/snow fall. No sunshine. There was a reported trace of snow on the ground at GRR but here in the NW side of town there is only left over snow piles. Overnight temperatures held steady around 29 to 30 and at the current time it is 29 here in my yard. For today the average H/L is now at 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 1939 and the record low of    -12 was in 1977. The record snow fall of 8” was in 1930. At the current time Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing are on possible track that could lead to one of the warmest, least snowy January’s on record. It is way too early to say that will happen but for it to happen it has to start somewhere.

 

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The sun should return today. We should stay dry and a few degrees above normal (what's new) for most of the week. Temps will rise well into the 40's with rain by Thursday night into Friday. Temps will fall to near normal for next weekend with dry weather.
The record high for today is 68 degrees from 1930. Our record low is 1 below zero from 1970. Daily rain record is the 1.66" from 1964. Daily snow record is the 3.0" from that very cold January of 1977.
image.png.1369fe0c675b48add58aab67c038bd8e.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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As we await the possible return of winter weather at some point later this winter. Below is a list of the Top 25 all-time January Snowstorms here in the Western Suburbs of Philly in Chester County PA

image.png.4afe8dd98c37125a1fa6a853d6bed3ef.png

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Good morning! Yesterday was yet another cloudy mild snowless January day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 32/28 there was no rain/snow fall. No sunshine. There was a reported trace of snow on the ground at GRR but here in the NW side of town there is only left over snow piles. Overnight temperatures held steady around 29 to 30 and at the current time it is 29 here in my yard. For today the average H/L is now at 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 1939 and the record low of    -12 was in 1977. The record snow fall of 8” was in 1930. At the current time Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing are on possible track that could lead to one of the warmest, least snowy January’s on record. It is way too early to say that will happen but for it to happen it has to start somewhere.

 

To me it's felt like late February or early March the past 10 days.  Not super cold, snow piles hanging around.  Greenish grass.  Almost like spring is around the corner.  I know it's not and we have a long way to go in winter and things can turn quickly later this month.  But the feeling is odd for middle of January.  

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The Sierra Nevada range in CA is going to get rocked today and tomorrow.  I looked at the point forecast for Mammoth Lakes and 13-19" is the forecast today, despite temperatures in the mid 30s.  Below is the web cam.  It's fun to see them pushing around this much snow.  

 

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

 

image.thumb.png.60e6754c9cd7469a4d0432c07995becb.png

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42 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Very gloomy forecast for the Arrowhead region of Minnesota! Endless clouds and fog!

 

 

gloooomy.PNG

Grand Rapids, Michigan has had 8 straight days of no sun.  It's depressing.  No sun, no snow.  6th longest streak.  

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10 minutes ago, Jarod said:

@tStacshGetting on and off partial sun here in the Hudsonville area. But yeah I'm ready for a real sunny day.

I almost saw the sun filter through out of my office at work, but not yet!   I should take a drive just to see the sun...

EDIT:  The sun just shone. Hallelujah  

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It is actually Sunny outside w/ no clouds at all. Gorgeous day to be outdoors. Temps are at 35F. Feels great to be seeing that sunshine in full mode, instead of only for a few minutes or even seconds 😀.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I had to go out on a walk this morning and soak up all that beautiful sunshine.  We had a lot of frost and it felt and looked like the Autumn conditions I missed when I was out in AZ.  It was kinda nice to experience it but I'd rather see snow OTG!  Happy Monday!  

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2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Wow. GFS currently showing low temperatures here next week that are 12-15 degrees above our normal high temperatures (and 30 degrees above the normal low temps).  Starting to wonder if this is going to be a historically warm January for KC.  

image.thumb.png.30caaff8842fdfc82860650c629ffe85.png

YES!! Oh my, next week per the GFS looks like early spring. Lows not that low and highs 55-65. HORRIBLE JANUARY SO FAR!!! Quite depressing if you like snow.

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50.4 degrees so far today and lots of sunshine.

I saved Jim Flowers’ winter forecast and so far not looking too good. December was below average and January has been way above average. Of course, the 4” of snow we’ve had is nowhere close to 30” either, but our biggest storms can still occur of course.
 

16FCB938-5E67-4FD8-A169-EE3F0D406533.jpeg

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Been snowing all day at Mammoth Lakes.  What a scene.  I've been watching on and off on the web cam since about 9am.  The snow has really picked up.  And I assume when the sun goes down, temps will drop a few degrees and accumulations will pickup even more.  The web cams at the summit are impossible to see out of.  Too bad.  What a fun day for the skiers and snowboarders there.

 

image.thumb.png.a78de1827cdb8cd51bc868bafc4047f5.png

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4 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

From their webpage:  Due to intense snowfall and rapid accumulation, lift operations will be limited. Main Lodge is closed for the remainder of the day. Expect heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions through late Tuesday night.

I was surprised they didn't shut down entirely, but I've seen some snowboarders in particularly on the web cam.  From what I can tell it's probably a wet snow.  Temps looked to be in the low to maybe even mid 30s.  33 is the current temp.  

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33 must be in the Village area, which is 8100', the main lodge which is higher in elevation is showing 28 degrees.  22 on the summit.  

What a ridiculous forecast, LOL.  

 

DETAILS

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 25. Wind chill values as low as 9. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 28 to 34 inches possible.
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2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Kind of off topic, but space weather is still weather.  The sun has been materially more active than was anticipated thus far in this cycle.  December was a big jump. January started off a little lower, but it's starting to pick back up the last few days. image.thumb.png.143285c679a56f6c5c018620eec305a1.png

Hi solar is a bad juju for winter enthusiasts. Happened a while back too. 11-12?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Been absent a bit...hope everyone is well. Weather been a bit boring since the MN onslaught haha. Snowpack is still the real deal up there. Maybe lost a couple inches thats it. Came down to IA tonight. I'll be here til Friday. Surprised there's still a solid snowcover here. I'm actually looking forward to the milder temps down here this week. Daylight is starting to increase a bit. Still hoping the forum can see some good winter weather yet (it's only Jan 10th)

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