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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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 Euro and Euro Control showing signs of brutal cold coming down for the final 10 days of Jan and I believe will last through February.  The Euro Ext is showing a very impressive MJO as well which shows the staying power this cold will have.  Looks like we will enter the cold phases on the 12th, allow for a 7-10 day lag time and then we should be off to the races around the 21st.  Until then enjoy the warmth and get some vitamin D lol.

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0d40d5_8ae83313b9eb405fa31ef7e46d2722be~mv2.png

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56 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 Euro and Euro Control showing signs of brutal cold coming down for the final 10 days of Jan and I believe will last through February.  The Euro Ext is showing a very impressive MJO as well which shows the staying power this cold will have.  Looks like we will enter the cold phases on the 12th, allow for a 7-10 day lag time and then we should be off to the races around the 21st.  Until then enjoy the warmth and get some vitamin D lol.

0d40d5_38177d9102b145f7ba964ed5c5b22bdc~mv2.png

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The EPS is really not backing down on the pattern flipping hard the weekend of the 21st/22nd....there are some big hitters showing up as the North American 500mb blocks up and reverse course to deliver some sustained cold.

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

The EPS is really not backing down on the pattern flipping hard the weekend of the 21st/22nd....there are some big hitters showing up as the North American 500mb blocks up and reverse course to deliver some sustained cold.

image.gif

Storm showing up around the 19th, riding ahead of the major pattern change needs watched.   Good potential for a big storm with that cutter.

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The JAN Thaw continues today with more SUNSHINE!  Wow, it felt great yesterday driving around and taking care of errands in the middle of the day with barely any wind.  Kinda nice actually if we are not going to have any snow but I suspect we are going to pay for this one way or another.  Looking forward to another warm and sunny one today.

 

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22 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

What did you have feb 11 1983?

Hi Ottumwa

26.5" ending on the 12th - it was also a very cold storm for us by Northeast US standards.

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Good morning! The sun did indeed come out yesterday. With 56% of possible sunshine the official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 39/29 there was no rain or snow fall and of course there is no snow on the ground (other than the old snow piles)  With clouds moving back in the overnight low was just 31 and at the current time it is 32 here in my yard. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 57 was set in 1975 and the record low of -19 was set in 1942. The record snow fall amount of 5.2” was set in 1979. There looks to be some rain or a rain snow mix for today and a better chance of rain and or snow for Thursday and Friday.

 

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20 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Kind of off topic, but space weather is still weather.  The sun has been materially more active than was anticipated thus far in this cycle.  December was a big jump. January started off a little lower, but it's starting to pick back up the last few days. image.thumb.png.143285c679a56f6c5c018620eec305a1.png

Found this graph that shows the increasing lack of direct correlation between low sunspot activity and temperatures, something the “morons” at NASA correctly predicted about this most recent lull in activity.

C5621582-8CD8-453C-805A-4283ADCDB7A2.jpeg

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On 1/8/2023 at 7:58 PM, Ferndale_man said:

Still learning here what was 2017 was that a neutral year.  We got a lot of snow that year. 

Almost certain you mean 17-18 which was AN in SEMI/SMI. 16-17 was the "NINO hang-over" season that only delivered good snow pre-Christmas

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The pattern change that keeps getting delayed.

First it was after the 10th. Then the middle of the month. Now it’s the last 8-9 days of the month.

None of the cold shots have any staying power.

I get we’re at the end of the GFS run, but in the first image it shows a big trough over the east, and only 48 hours later has it lifting rapidly away and already filled in by warm ridging.

771F13BF-AC72-4B43-AEB3-C3D4FBA24DB1.jpeg

968A94FB-3113-4DD8-99A4-F5607EEA70DE.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Found this graph that shows the increasing lack of direct correlation between low sunspot activity and temperatures, something the “morons” at NASA correctly predicted about this most recent lull in activity.

C5621582-8CD8-453C-805A-4283ADCDB7A2.jpeg

Do you know where that temp is for?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Coincidentally, I was reading a climate change related article earlier today which I will reference here since the subject has been brought up even though this thread is not necessarily the best place for discussion. This more or less reflects my thinking on the matter but others certainly may and do have different or opposing opinions. Just thought folks might find this interesting.

Net Zero Will Lead to the End of Modern Civilisation, Says Top Scientist

The article refers to this report:

While the Climate Always Has and Always Will Change, There Is no Climate Crisis

ABSTRACT

"The emphasis on a false climate crisis is becoming a tragedy for modern civilization, which depends on relible, economic, and environmentally viable energy. The windmills, solar panels and backup batteries have none of these qualities. This falsehood is pushed by a powerful lobby which Bjorn Lomborg has called a climate industrial complex, comprising some scientists, most media, industrialists, and legislators. It has somehow managed to convince many that CO2 in the atmosphere, a gas necessary for life on earth, one which we exhale with every breath, is an environmental poison. Multiple scientific theories and measurements show that there is no climate crisis. Radiation forcing calculations by both skeptics and believers show that the carbon dioxide radiation forcicng is about 0.3% of the incident radiation, far less than other effects on climate. Over the period of human civilization, the temperature has oscillated between quite a few warm and cold periods, with many of the warm periods being warmer than today. During geological times, it and the carbon dioxide level have been all over the place with no correlation between them."

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Coincidentally, I was reading a climate change related article earlier today which I will reference here since the subject has been brought up even though this thread is not necessarily the best place for discussion. This more or less reflects my thinking on the matter but others certainly may and do have different or opposing opinions. Just thought folks might find this interesting.

Net Zero Will Lead to the End of Modern Civilisation, Says Top Scientist

The article refers to this report:

While the Climate Always Has and Always Will Change, There Is no Climate Crisis

ABSTRACT

"The emphasis on a false climate crisis is becoming a tragedy for modern civilization, which depends on relible, economic, and environmentally viable energy. The windmills, solar panels and backup batteries have none of these qualities. This falsehood is pushed by a powerful lobby which Bjorn Lomborg has called a climate industrial complex, comprising some scientists, most media, industrialists, and legislators. It has somehow managed to convince many that CO2 in the atmosphere, a gas necessary for life on earth, one which we exhale with every breath, is an environmental poison. Multiple scientific theories and measurements show that there is no climate crisis. Radiation forcing calculations by both skeptics and believers show that the carbon dioxide radiation forcicng is about 0.3% of the incident radiation, far less than other effects on climate. Over the period of human civilization, the temperature has oscillated between quite a few warm and cold periods, with many of the warm periods being warmer than today. During geological times, it and the carbon dioxide level have been all over the place with no correlation between them."

Yawn,  get this garbage of this thread.  Biased non-peer reviewed opinions.  That's science!  Embarrassing the propaganda people will fall for.   

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4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Yawn,  get this garbage of this thread.  Biased non-peer reviewed opinions.  That's science!  Embarrassing the propaganda people will fall for.   

lol...yeah it could be garbage or maybe not. But one thing is true...you never disappoint me...lol

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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On 1/9/2023 at 3:07 PM, sumweatherdude said:

Kind of off topic, but space weather is still weather.  The sun has been materially more active than was anticipated thus far in this cycle.  December was a big jump. January started off a little lower, but it's starting to pick back up the last few days. image.thumb.png.143285c679a56f6c5c018620eec305a1.png

Sunspot activity has been above projected numbers for 35 straight months now. There's a relatively new theory about a magnetic collapse of some sort that may or may not have happened. If such an event did occur, not the regular flipping of sunspot poles, etc., the theory is an intense solar cycle should occur. Evidence would suggest this is the case thus far. Is it coincidence? Time will tell. 

*I probably watch space weather more than here* 

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32 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Sunspot activity has been above projected numbers for 35 straight months now. There's a relatively new theory about a magnetic collapse of some sort that may or may not have happened. If such an event did occur, not the regular flipping of sunspot poles, etc., the theory is an intense solar cycle should occur. Evidence would suggest this is the case thus far. Is it coincidence? Time will tell. 

*I probably watch space weather more than here* 

I love space weather too. It’s a dream of mine to go to Iceland and sit under the skies and watch the Northern Lights dance overhead.

We don’t usually get the Lights down here but lucked out a little over a year ago and I was able to see them on the horizon (with a long exposure).

 I already have plans with hotels booked to see the total annular eclipse in New Mexico this October as it crosses the US, and the total eclipse next April watching from somewhere in Texas!

6F6925F1-C160-462B-9832-12CCDABD8328.jpeg

59CFADEA-CD58-4C1C-AE4A-9F47A49E1C7A.jpeg

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Yawn,  get this garbage of this thread.  Biased non-peer reviewed opinions.  That's science!  Embarrassing the propaganda people will fall for.   

It's a fact there's not enough cobalt and lithium for the green future people are anticipating. Solar and wind are still unreliable. It's just going to end up with people burning coal and telling the climate change people to go away, because they'll have the choice of having no electricity and heat or burning coal. The filthy oil refineries and oil fields are just going to be replaced with lithium mines.

The one thing I can't stands though are people who try and get the last word in while simultaneously telling everyone to drop the subject. Like that's just not very mature, you tell someone they're completely wrong then tell them to shut up and leave the thread. Really mature, my man. Sorry mods for making you do extra work but I just can't stand people who argue like that.

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Some may wonder how often have we gone through a January with no measurable snow during the month? Well here in Chester County PA it has not happened in 50 years....but overall it has occurred 6 times including 3 straight January's from 1932 through 1934. The other years a green January has taken place include 1960, 1967 and 1973. Of note that last time in 1973 took place during the only winter season in Chester County PA history that no snow at all fell during the winter. We will not suffer that fate this year as we have already recorded a whopping 0.8" of snow during December!!

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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On 1/9/2023 at 12:37 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

Rumor is it’s snowing a lot in the Sierra’s

460E042D-23A7-43E1-AD5E-272B6855F251.jpeg

It's insane here, could not possibly be more opposite of a La Nina winter. The Santa Barbara area had evacuations last night over mudslide concerns and there is flooding in coastal areas. 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I’m ready for some rain.  
Freezing temps or not.  

Moisture! 😃

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Happy hump day. This mild January continues and yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 39/30 there was a trace of snow fall (more like a few flurries here at my house) the sun was out a reported 5% of the time. The overnight so far has been mild with temperatures holding between 32 and 33. 33 is the current temperature here in my yard. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 58 was set in 2018 and the bone chilling low of -21 was set in 1979. The record snow fall on 6.9” fell in 1991. For the next 5 to 7 days it looks like most if not all the snow will stay to the SE of west Michigan. It will be cooler over the weekend and then warm up again next week.

 

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As has been the case for the nearly the last two years it has been cooler compared to average at Grand We now have 10 days of the month in the record books and it has been a very mild 10 days. As has Rapids but warmer compared to average at Lansing. For the 10 day period at GR the mean is 34.7 that is a departure of +8.7 the high for the month so far is 43 and the low so far is just 28 Officially there has been 0.6” of snow fall. (here in my yard there has been just 0.2”) At Muskegon the mean there is 36.9 (remember lake Michigan is ice free and still warm) and that is +9.2 for the month. The highest at Muskego so far this month is 46 and the low is just 31. There has only been 0.1” of snow fall there. At Holland the mean there is 36.1 +9.1. once again near that warm lake Michigan. The highest reading so far is 45 and the low is 29.  They do not report snow fall at Holland. To the east at Lansing, they have a mean of 35.7 that is a departure of +10.7 The high for the month so far is 46 and the low so far is just 28. there has been a reported 0.2” of snow fall there.

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Well, it certainly looks like we are going to start tracking some winter storms later next week as the blocking across Hudson Bay is showing strength once our late week system tracks into the ATL and pumps the N ATL Ridge and Hudson Bay Block.  I had opined last week that this storm could be a key player that'll influence the next wave train of storms later next week.  The Euro and the GFS are now both showing the potential.

snku_acc-imp.conus.png

 

0z Euro...

1.png

 

What's more exciting to me about the pattern to close out JAN is the CLEAR signal we are entering a colder pattern that will have some legs to it given all the players on the field.  There are multiple storms following the the 18th-20th system that should come out of the 4 corners and dig into the S Plains as the cold presses deep south.  Time for @OKwx2k4@Iceresistance @Andie to get into the winter fun and games.

0z EPS next 10 days...

image.png

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Another slightly above normal temperature day across the county today before rain arrives overnight tonight. Mild with rain tomorrow with between 0.25" to 0.50" likely across Chesco. Chillier weather this weekend with Saturday looking like possibly our first below normal day of 2023. Temps will start to trend milder again to start next week.
The record high for today is 67 degrees from 1975. Record low was 5 below zero in 1981. Record precipitation was the 1.19" from 1924 and our daily snow record was the 7.2" that fell today in 1922.
image.png.a32bffa0abe06b8c416df013421dfc2f.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Well, it certainly looks like we are going to start tracking some winter storms later next week as the blocking across Hudson Bay is showing strength once our late week system tracks into the ATL and pumps the N ATL Ridge and Hudson Bay Block.  I had opined last week that this storm could be a key player that'll influence the next wave train of storms later next week.  The Euro and the GFS are now both showing the potential.

snku_acc-imp.conus.png

 

0z Euro...

1.png

 

What's more exciting to me about the pattern to close out JAN is the CLEAR signal we are entering a colder pattern that will have some legs to it given all the players on the field.  There are multiple storms following the the 18th-20th system that should come out of the 4 corners and dig into the S Plains as the cold presses deep south.  Time for @OKwx2k4@Iceresistance @Andie to get into the winter fun and games.

0z EPS next 10 days...

image.png

Hey Tom,

 

Let's get our winter back! Thanks for the updates and maps. I'll enjoy the nice weather for now through next week and we'll see how that storm trends later next week into the weekend. 

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Next week features more rain w/ temps possibly near 50F by Tuesday. Could be a hvy, soaking rain as gulf moisture gets involved. Another wasted storm..Ugh!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Well both the 0z Euro and 6z GFS show a rain storm next week followed by a snowstorm.  And given how far out it is, pretty remarkable agreement.  Not even gonna bother posting them since it will change 1000 times, but maybe something to keep any eye out on. Signs of winter at least.  

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I wish  I was preaching to the choir-- but folks GFS pass 96-120 is a joke. EURO pass 120-144 is the same.  ( For precip)

Enjoy the Jan Thaw. cold -- to brutal cold  coming late month early FEB. Like has been typical last 3-6 years on avg.   I don't say that much on here - but it's coming.-- just delayed.  Quit the model flip flopping.  Teleconnections will win out.

And if so--- after all the "warmth" at least here in DSM-- after a DEC that avg 3.5F below norm--- winter will be winter and likely avg below norm temps for most. Snowfall is always a crapshot..  But I lay odds that most see above avg snowfall when its all said and done E of IA>  DSM is only 2-3" below normal. That can be made up in a single event.

Stay the course. It may not happen when you want, but we just had a pretty cold  DEC with a White Christmas for most. Most of us don't live in Ely,MN. or N.MICH.

ALL OF MN  is above snowfall as shown. Will that not move and avg out?? Time and climo says it will. Quit the backyard BS-- it will happen for snow and cold for most. Yeah sun angle and all-- it happens-- just like in Aug when it gets 105 with heat index of 115F. 

Stay the Course!!!!

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The GFS looks for a pattern change right around next weekend, teleconnections are looking to support coast to coast storms and much colder air to seed south. I do believe we just might have winter after all. We had winter here in KC between the 14th and 27th of Dec. that included a wind driven snow, below freezing temps for 6.5 straight days and the most important, a white Christmas. 

LRC is forecasting a cold Feb/Mar for most of us on here and likely starting the last week of this month. 

I'm trying to score a 2-3 hour sleet/snow band here in KC tonight into tomorrow morning. Hopefully we can get that to hit as some data is suggesting. 

Until winter's return, I'll enjoy some of these beautiful January days.

Go winter!!

 

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