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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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The EURO overnight Monday and yesterday's 12Z run had nice area of snow hitting KC Thursday morning, showing 1-2 inches, today's 12z run just 24 hours later, NOTHING! 

Now, this is a smaller storm, but, just saying, even inside 24-36 hours the data can change quite fast and sometimes in your favor...

HRRR, same thing, showed 3 inches of snow here on the Oz run last night, most recent run, NOTHING! 

NAM too...3-5 inches on the Oz run last night and this morning's 12z run had basically nothing, still showed some accums. 

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Next week's warm-up looks to be brief now, as colder air wants to get here earlier than expected. Also, it might not get as mild as projected. Major changes late next week period. Winter about to finally roar in for alotta folks on here. Stay tuned!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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33 minutes ago, Niko said:

Next week's warm-up looks to be brief now, as colder air wants to get here earlier than expected. Also, it might not get as mild as projected. Major changes late next week period. Winter about to finally roar in for alotta folks on here. Stay tuned!

Right around the average coldest part of the year.  So hopefully winter does make an appearance sooner rather than later.  

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9 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Right around the average coldest part of the year.  So hopefully winter does make an appearance sooner rather than later.  

Yes, I am not seeing any real intrusions of "Arctic Air" but, even slightly BN to near average will do, as long as we can squeeze out a snowstorm or 2, b4 this month is finished. Tbh, If I can hit my average snowfall for the month of January, then, I will be a happy camper.

Note: If you see my statistics below on snowfall thus far this season...not too impressive, except for November!!!

👇

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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30 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yes, I am not seeing any real intrusions of "Arctic Air" but, even slightly BN to near average will do, as long as we can squeeze out a snowstorm or 2, b4 this month is finished. Tbh, If I can hit my average snowfall for the month of January, then, I will be a happy camper.

Note: If you see my statistics below on snowfall thus far this season...not too impressive, except for November!!!

👇

I’ll be happy if I see snow flying in the air.  This is Seattle winter over here right now.  Cloudy and drizzle. Oh wait I see the sun now.   and … it’s gone.. 

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6 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

I’ll be happy if I see snow flying in the air.  This is Seattle winter over here right now.  Cloudy and drizzle. Oh wait I see the sun now.   and … it’s gone.. 

Pathetic January! But there is still hope. Plenty of winter left.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Both the 12z GEFS and EPS are in agreement...the cold is coming, the snow will Fly....will it be flying in the Chi??  Looks like the odds are increasing!  Prob the best LR signal to include many on here and then some.  

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12z EPS...

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Both the 12z GEFS and EPS are in agreement...the cold is coming, the snow will Fly....will it be flying in the Chi??  Looks like the odds are increasing!  Prob the best LR signal to include many on here and then some.  

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12z EPS...

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Good stuff @Tom.  NWS Hastings has been hinting at the coming changes.  Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Agri. Weather on YouTube has also been talking about the coming storminess and potential arctic air late January into February in his daily videos.  As usual, the specifics will get ironed out early next week.  

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Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

Good stuff @Tom.  NWS Hastings has been hinting at the coming changes.  Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Agri. Weather on YouTube has also been talking about the coming storminess and potential arctic air late January into February in his daily videos.  As usual, the specifics will get ironed out early next week.  

Let’s make it snow!! ❄️ It really feels like this is one of those “old school” Jan Thaws…Winter is coming back!

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On 12/27/2022 at 8:12 PM, Clinton said:

It's almost January and the start of a new year of tracking storms.  @Tom wrote a great break down of the pattern post 5tlh and 6th this morning and I thought I would add a few of my thoughts and open up a thread for discussion.  While some patience may be required for the Eastern and Southern members as far as Winter weather the first week or two of the month, that patience will likely be rewarded as as we get toward the middle of the month.

  Lets start with the MJO, we will be closing out Dec in phases 5 and 6 which are warm.

0d40d5_592f032112a44b0f9ccde54c1ce00649~mv2.png

As we will start January in phase 7, you can see that both the Euro Weeklies and the GEFS extended both take the MJO into phase 8 at the end of week 2 with some members showing an amplified phase 8 and 1.

GMON.png

EMON.png

0d40d5_15965fa654834e0a94caab3d416b71a1~mv2.png

Along with the MJO moving into the cold phases mid month, the EPO looks to go negative around the 5th and remain there through the extended.  The AO and NAO while not deeply negative they do look ok and I expect them to dive deep negative as we move toward the latter half of the month.

1672012800-arTZlNn1yBEgrb2.png

1672012800-rVQgK88TDJYgrb2.png

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Along with the cutters to start the month we should have some other big storms to track.  The part of the pattern that produced the very strange Texas Panhandle GO/Mex low produced big rains for the eastern sub and lower lakes will be due in around the 12th-15th.  Can we please get some cold air in place for this one!

The month will end with the return of one of the signature storms of this years LRC that produced heavy rain totals in the middle of the country in cycle 1 and a Blizzard in the northern part of the country in cycle 2.  There should be plenty of action in between those 2 storms.

Finally @mlgamer suggestion that we may have another backloaded winter has support from the teleconnections, LRC, and the Strat Warm event that has been discussed by @sumweatherdudeand Tom.  Could we see another Artic outbreak later in the month that last well into February?  I wish everyone good luck and happy storm tracking! 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep the brutal cold is coming. Especially if you WISH for it really hard. Again this is a winter weather forum so it shouldn’t be surprising to see it forecasted time and again.

Sure it was supposed to be here by the 10th. Then the middle of the month. Then the end of the month…

I'm good with my call from late Dec.  Is the Artic air going to be a week later than I expected, probably.  I don't understand your need to criticize people who share there opinions on the weather and make long range predictions.  Nobody I've seen on here just throws things out there without some sort of support behind it.  Are there misses, sure I don't know a forecaster out there is perfect and most of us on here are armatures who devote a lot of time and effort in their spare time.  IMO this is one of the best places to be to share opinions and discuss weather anywhere I've been.

One last note, the storm that I predicted for the end of the month and the first of February (Jan 31st - Feb 3rd to be specific) make sure you let me know how that one plays out.  

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The 00z GFS has a strong, hard cutter late next week, but the Canadian is totally different.  I wouldn't bet a nickel on any scenario at this point.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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0z Euro/GGEM are much different with the strength of the Hudson Bay Block.  If you can see, the GFS is much weaker, thus it cuts NW much quicker.  Conversely, the EURO/GGEM have a "finger" knifing farther South, thus the outcome is different.  This is going to be a moisture laden storm system and one that will def deliver a lot of snow.  Where it falls is the question, but I think many across I-80 will see Snow outta this one.  My area is riding the fine line as they say and could be one of those scenarios where places N of the "Cheddar Curtain" get the goods instead.  

0z Euro...both systems...Back-2-Back Storms...

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Here's the comparisons showing the difference in placement of the Hudson Bay Block which will be the outcome of the storm tracking through the S MW/OHV later today.

0z Euro...

ec-fast_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

 

0z GGEM...

gem_mslpaNorm_namer_29.png

 

0z GFS...

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_29.png

 

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Good morning! Just like a broken record this mild January continues. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 47/31. To put that in perspective that 47 was the 7th warmest high for any January 11th and the low of 31 was the 11th warmest low for the date. Yesterday there was a trace of reported rain fall and there was no snow fall. There was no snow on the ground and there was 24% of possible sunshine. Temperatures were in the low 40’s for much of the overnight but have now fallen to 39 and that is the low for the day so far but temperatures are to fall for later today. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 57 was set in 2013 and the record low of -14 was set in 1918 the record snow fall of 10” was also set in 1918. It will cool down for today and tomorrow and temperatures will be near to maybe just below average for a couple of days before warming up again for most of next week.

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After an in-depth look into the data, the LRC, the forthcoming colder pattern...I must say, I'm getting pretty D**n excited for what is about to happen across the heart of this Sub.  It's not a question of Winter coming back, the question I have now is...How long and How wild can this pattern get?  This post may steer some ppl the wrong way but what I am seeing is a bonafide "snow blitz" that is going to set up for the duration of the 2nd half of JAN.  To be completely transparent, I originally thought today's storm will "kick off" the pattern but instead, it appears its going to be the system next week that kick starts the return of Ol' Man Winter.  Let's dive in to the data.

A few things we know about the LRC is that a wave train will develop starting on MLK day as a warm GL's cutter, then this system, depending on its strength, paves the way for the next S Stream Cutter...or...it may end up being a Slider, depending on the strength of the Hudson Bay Block.  Following this system, all the models signal a -EPO pattern locking and suddenly, the PNA is trending more neutral/negative (BIG SIGNAL).  This is an IDEAL pattern to keep the storm track right through the heart of the SUB.  #SWFLOW

 

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The LRC suggests more storms to hit the PAC NW/Rockies and into the 4 Corners come the week of the 22nd.  I'm eye balling a big storm to form out of the 4 corners region during the 24th-26th period that will dig deep into the S Plains and track up through the S MW/OHV.  My gut tells me this one is going to be a hellova Winter storm.  Watch out @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Black Hole...this one has eyes for you guys down south.  The cold will be locked in across the Central CONUS for the foreseeable future.  If all plays out as the model data suggests, this can end up becoming a really special period for snow enthusiasts, like myself, and many others on here.  It's time baby for Mother Nature to put on a show!

LET IT SNOW!

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0z EPS...SW FLOW...how long can this GO???

image.gif

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How about the warm day yesterday?  ORD topped out close to a record warm day hitting a high of 57F!   The last few days have been delightful, in fact, a couple of days ago I was out in the back yard raking the leaves that were blown across the edges of the yard and fence area that piled up.  I didn't want to waste a nice, warm, sunny afternoon and leave this work for me to do in the Spring time.  On a side note, I'm doing an experiment in my back yard and letting the leaves settle on one portion of my yard for the entire winter and see if it provides any fertilization for the next grow season.  I read somewhere that leaving the leafs actually insulates the grass and provides nutrients.  Let's see how that works out.

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

After an in-depth look into the data, the LRC, the forthcoming colder pattern

I have not looked to see if there are any past years when January started off at warm as this one and then flipped to a much colder and or snowier pattern. I am sure there are some but it would be very time consuming to look up. Of the top ten warmest Januarys at Grand Rapids all seen a colder February with 1934, 1989, 1933 and 1906 having February much colder. In 1934 the January mean of 31.0 fell to 19.9 in February and in 1989 when the mean fell from 30.4 to 19.7. 

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

On a side note, I'm doing an experiment in my back yard and letting the leaves settle on one portion of my yard for the entire winter and see if it provides any fertilization for the next grow season.  I read somewhere that leaving the leafs actually insulates the grass and provides nutrients.  Let's see how that works out.

I used to do that when I lived in Bay City well kind of. I had a big yard and live out in the country and back then we used to burn the leaves in the fall (or spring) and I would "pile" the leaves over the garden area for fertilization. It would help keep the ground from freezing. Give it a try and let us know how it turned out.  

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We did have some wet snow overnight that turned to some light rain with 0.05" of liquid falling. Today looks cloudy with some drizzle and more rain later in the day and this evening. We could pick up up to another 0.20" of rain. Today will be the warmest day of the next week with temps possibly reaching 50 degrees. Drying out by tomorrow PM. Much chillier Saturday with our first below normal temp day of the year. Another warming trend begins next week.
The record high for today is 64 set in 2020. The record low is 7 degrees from 1981. Daily rain record is the 1.98" that fell in 1983. Our record snow for the day was the 5" that fell today in 1982.
image.png.55c00e66861f16753136703f73a8ad78.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

How about the warm day yesterday?  ORD topped out close to a record warm day hitting a high of 57F!   The last few days have been delightful, in fact, a couple of days ago I was out in the back yard raking the leaves that were blown across the edges of the yard and fence area that piled up.  I didn't want to waste a nice, warm, sunny afternoon and leave this work for me to do in the Spring time.  On a side note, I'm doing an experiment in my back yard and letting the leaves settle on one portion of my yard for the entire winter and see if it provides any fertilization for the next grow season.  I read somewhere that leaving the leafs actually insulates the grass and provides nutrients.  Let's see how that works out.

My side business is mowing. Just letting you know if you have a wet year and a pile of leaves in your yard you are gonna see ground rot! 

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

I used to do that when I lived in Bay City well kind of. I had a big yard and live out in the country and back then we used to burn the leaves in the fall (or spring) and I would "pile" the leaves over the garden area for fertilization. It would help keep the ground from freezing. Give it a try and let us know how it turned out.  

I used my leaves I chopped up and bagged in my riding mower and sprinkled them all over our 6 garden beds this year.  

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36 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

My side business is mowing. Just letting you know if you have a wet year and a pile of leaves in your yard you are gonna see ground rot! 

I’m didn’t pile up the leaves but instead just left it “as is” in a natural layer.  Pretty much didn’t even touch the area where they fell when I came back from AZ.  Thanks for the tip tho!

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

How about the warm day yesterday?  ORD topped out close to a record warm day hitting a high of 57F!   The last few days have been delightful, in fact, a couple of days ago I was out in the back yard raking the leaves that were blown across the edges of the yard and fence area that piled up.  I didn't want to waste a nice, warm, sunny afternoon and leave this work for me to do in the Spring time.  On a side note, I'm doing an experiment in my back yard and letting the leaves settle on one portion of my yard for the entire winter and see if it provides any fertilization for the next grow season.  I read somewhere that leaving the leafs actually insulates the grass and provides nutrients.  Let's see how that works out.

I used to do a leave collection (just like you are) and it worked great.. Best nutrients ever.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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