January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[mlgamer]

The Euro shows the surface temperatures to be just above freezing for most of the Wed/Thu event for MBY. The 10:1 map also shows a higher total than Kuchera. Looks like a wet slopfest. Yuck.

[Clinton]

Euro ensembles actually were further north vs the 0z.  Makes more since imo.

[tStacsh]

me waiting for the pattern to change....

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looking good Omaha! I’m thinking 1” will have to be the new minimum to get out my new snowblower, otherwise it might never leave my garage.

[Niko]

Southern Canada is having  a major ssnowtorm today. This storm that missed us, favored Montreal and points northward w quite of bit of snow. 

[bud2380]

18z GFS basically has no storm.  LOL.  That model is total trash right now.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

16 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

18z GFS basically has no storm.  LOL.  That model is total trash right now.  

Except for the fact all the models have been weakening the system so…

[Iceresistance]

Larry Cosgrove has recently said to ignore the models for now. 

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

In what sense?  What does he think they're getting wrong?

The models are having very wild solutions after every run, they'll eventually hook onto the upcoming cold and snow by the end of this month. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Wheezer]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Larry Cosgrove has recently said to ignore the models for now. 

Is this the same Larry that said the Arctic air would return to much  of the lower 48 mid month ?

[OKwx2k4]

On 1/12/2023 at 6:48 AM, Tom said:

How about the warm day yesterday?  ORD topped out close to a record warm day hitting a high of 57F!   The last few days have been delightful, in fact, a couple of days ago I was out in the back yard raking the leaves that were blown across the edges of the yard and fence area that piled up.  I didn't want to waste a nice, warm, sunny afternoon and leave this work for me to do in the Spring time.  On a side note, I'm doing an experiment in my back yard and letting the leaves settle on one portion of my yard for the entire winter and see if it provides any fertilization for the next grow season.  I read somewhere that leaving the leafs actually insulates the grass and provides nutrients.  Let's see how that works out.

My oak tree leaves lay all winter season until the next spring and i move them in the spring. The area i move them to (and have for several years) has some of the best, topsoil and earthworm/nightcrawler dirt you could make. It makes amazing soil.

Fun fact: Its also less annoying than clearing it all away 23 times from September through December in a season like we just had. Lol. With the wind we have had, I'd be clearing part of 2 counties in Arkansas' leaves this year. Haha.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[bud2380]

00z GFS says storms back. 

[bud2380]

[westMJim]

Good morning.  Even though yesterday with a low of 24 was one of the coolest days so far this month it was still warmer than average. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 35/24 that 24 was just before midnight. There was a trace of snow fall, no sunshine and no snow on the ground. For the month the mean is 34.9 and there has been just 0.6” of snow fall.  The overnight low so far is the current temperature here at my house of 21. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 53 was set in 1928 and the record low of -13 was set in 2015 the record snow fall of 7.2” was set in 1963.

[Iceresistance]

9 hours ago, Wheezer said:

Is this the same Larry that said the Arctic air would return to much  of the lower 48 mid month ?

Yes, he actually said that the pattern will begin to change Mid-Month 

[Tom]

Nice to see some consistency in the modeling from the overnight 0z Suite of runs.   It's amazing how much the models have flip flopped with this system.  The Euro has been the most consistent in the D5+ range, but now as we head inside 5 days, lets hope the trends continue bc this storm could deliver some pretty good snowfall all the way from the Plains to the Lower Lakes. 

0z Euro...

 

[Tom]

Fired up a storm thread now that we are inside 5 days...

[Tom]

Giddy Up, Buckle Up...the Atmospheric River appears to be heading into our Sub Forum starting mid next week into the rest of JAN.  I see a very clear signal among all the global models and they fit the LRC pattern quite well.  There will be a large number of our members who will see a very active pattern setting up where systems come through in 2-3 day intervals.  This time, however, the blocking setting up and the SER will allow storms to dig farther south and cut up the OHV/S MW region.  Nice to see the snow signal continue to GROW per the latest 0z EPS....

[Tom]

@sumweatherdude, this is how you dislodge the Polar Vortex off the Pole...I've learned from reading @judahcohen's blog that the placement of where the GEFS are suggesting the PV to be displaced is an ideal one for North America to reap the rewards of a colder regime.  #CrossPolarFlow

[chescowxman]

A few light flurries have been seen here in East Nantmeal this AM. Today will be mainly cloudy with limited sun. Our temps will struggle to get above freezing especially along the higher ridges in western spots of chesco. Today will be our first below normal day of the year. However, by tomorrow will return to normal to just above temps which will continue for the rest of the upcoming week. Our next chance of rain arrives on Tuesday AM....if it arrives early enough we may see a touch of freezing rain. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs approaching 50 degrees. Cooler weather is on tap to close out the week.
The record high for today is 73 degrees set in 1932. The record low for today is also the coldest temperature ever recorded in Chester County of 19 degrees below zero - today back in 1912. Of note Phoenixville's all-time record low is also 19 below zero which was recorded on January 22, 1961. West Chester's all-time low reading was the 16 below zero that was twice observed both on January 22, 1984 and February 10, 1934. Record precipitation for today is the 1.78" that fell in 1921. Our daily snow record is the 14.3" that fell today way back in 1910.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@sumweatherdude, this is how you dislodge the Polar Vortex off the Pole...I've learned from reading @judahcohen's blog that the placement of where the GEFS are suggesting the PV to be displaced is an ideal one for North America to reap the rewards of a colder regime.  #CrossPolarFlow

Would love a repeat of February 2021. Some of the coldest temps here since 1983. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Still plenty of time for winter, but I am running behind last winter for snowfall amounts, despite being colder than it.

A couple days ago had some more t'storm activity roll through, western KY had a few tornadoes and hail up to golfball size. Later that night a few flakes. More of the same this morning with a light dusting on roofs. Haven't had a measurable snow since 12/23. 

[Iceresistance]

@OmahaSnowFan and @CentralNebWeather would go crazy when they see the 12z CMC. 

[winterfreak]

Looking forward to next week’s late January rainstorm…

[jaster220]

20 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Am I reading the maps right that the SER is looking to be incredibly strong late in the GFS forecast period?  Like INCREDIBLY strong?  I don't recall ever seeing a 591 dam on a 500mb map during the winter before.  And is that why the cold air seems to be having a tough time truly penetrating the lower 48 in that time frame?  In other words, is our chance of winter returning going to be messed up by something that is truly rare? 

Looks ideal for MSP. Book it baby!

[Tom]

4 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Yeah, but if the cold bounces off a SER, does that really do folks south any good?  I'm honestly asking.  Because right now the models aren't bringing the cold air down far enough south to give KC any snow (like literally no snow), much less a true arctic outbreak.  Can't the PV be dislodged, but then have other issues that prevent it from getting further south?  Latest models keep KC out of any fun winter weather. 

I hear what your saying about the SER, and yes, that has been a problem over the past number of years to flex its muscle and cause the storm track to be farther NW, however, during this forthcoming 10-day period the EPO tanks and the -PNA is not overwhelmingly deeply (-).  Your region and even down farther south into TX/OK can benefit from a stout -EPO and slightly (-) PNA.  In fact, those teleconnections usually produce the best snow chances besides getting a -AO/-NAO that we are all used to reading and seeing.

Something that we have to pay attn to is how strongly (-) does the PNA go??  If its anywhere close to the (-3) deviation of normal or less, then the warmth will begin to win and thats a worry in the very LR.   I hope the SER doesn't get nearly as strong bc one of the LRC's signature storms is due right around GHD.

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z EPS...pressing the snow farther south into Okie Land and Texas...

[chescowxman]

Below is an analysis of all Chester County PA data from all available sources with at least 6 complete decades of history. The most complete data sets have 13 complete decades of data. In the data below all decades that had temperatures fall from the previous decade are in blue and those that rose are in red. Data in black showed no change decade to decade. When averaging all reporting sites across the county we see that 6 decades trended colder from the prior decade and 6 decades trended warmer.  Overall the 1930's and 1940's were the warmest decades and we have still not returned to those warm levels

Five of the Top 10 warmest decades occurred prior to 1960. We have seen no more than 3 consecutive warming decades and no more than 3 consecutive cooling decades since the 1890's.

[Clinton]

CMC and GEFS bringing the cold in for everyone.  @Andie this is the start.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, buckle up. Looks like winter is on its way back. 

Great disco on the SER also. Quite the unusual scenario there. Meanwhile, I know Siberia is holding down some of its coldest air in 2 decades, so theres a pretty solid supply to throw across the globe at that super stout ridge. 

As Tom mentioned, the real result of that war of air masses could be an amazing storm right on my head down here. There's historical precedent, for sure. 

Another option is a stalled and sheared overrunning event later on and those are good for nobody pretty much. 

Close of the month looks fun. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like Omaha has exceptional drought conditions now.

[OmahaSnowFan]

9 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@OmahaSnowFan and @CentralNebWeather would go crazy when they see the 12z CMC. 

The Canadian is consistently always too high w snowfall totals 

[james1976]

16 hours ago, Tom said:

Giddy Up, Buckle Up...the Atmospheric River appears to be heading into our Sub Forum starting mid next week into the rest of JAN.  I see a very clear signal among all the global models and they fit the LRC pattern quite well.  There will be a large number of our members who will see a very active pattern setting up where systems come through in 2-3 day intervals.  This time, however, the blocking setting up and the SER will allow storms to dig farther south and cut up the OHV/S MW region.  Nice to see the snow signal continue to GROW per the latest 0z EPS....

December 2000 repeat! Haha

[westMJim]

Good morning! Well the sun finally came out yesterday and here in Grand Rapids there was a reported 91% of possible sunshine. The official H/L was 31/18 and that is exactly average for the date. There was no rain/snow and there was no snow on the ground. The overnight low this morning is the current temperature of 20. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 57 was set in 1949 and the record low of -15 was set in 1972 the record snow fall is 5.8” in 1997. This week should start off mild with a some cold rain then a good chance of snow on Thursday.

 

[Clinton]

It's been warm in western MO. and today is headed to the upper 50s possibly.

@NWSKansasCity

Today is the halfway point of meteorological winter. Thru half #1 KC is: 3.3° above normal & is the 30th warmest on the 135-year record. Precip is 2.27" which is 0.22" above normal & is 46th wettest. Snow is a paltry 1.3" which is 4.6" below normal & the 23rd least snowy.

[chescowxman]

Today should see a return to near normal January temps with highs in the upper 30's. Sunny tomorrow before a chance of rain Tuesday with a much better chance by Thursday. The warmest day looks like Wednesday when we could touch 50 degrees. Cooler again by the end of the week.

The record high for today is 70 degrees in 1932. The record low is 3 below zero from 1988. Daily precipitation record is 1.07" Daily snow record is the 6.0" that fell today in 1927.

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS coming in quite a bit snowier with the initial system tomorrow. Too bad I can't believe just about anything this model puts out.

What’s not to believe?  

[Hawkeye]

After the snow event the Euro turns the flow nw and suppresses everything through day ten, with arctic air dumping down at the end.