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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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All of the snow with this system is to the west and north of west Michigan. 

This January has been very warm and it looks like the last week will determine just how it will rank in the warmest and least snowy on record. So far this month has a mean of 34.6 at Grand Rapids and just 0.6” of snow fall. The record warmest in history is 34.2 and the least snow fall is 0.8”.  Yesterday the official H/L was 38/34 there was 0.01” of rain fall and no snow and no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 56 was in 1907 and the record low of -22 was in 1994. The record snow fall of 6.4” fell in 2003. There has been a cold rain falling overnight and with a east wind blowing with guest of up to 33MPH there is a chill in the air. At the current time there is light rain falling with a temperature of 36. Today will be a breezy and wet day with highs in the low 40’s expected. The dry slot will arrive later this morning before some warm around moves in later today and that could also become some snow as colder air moves in.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS keeps going NW

1674734400-a72SExwz7xU.png

Overall, I think both the ICON and CMC have been handling this system at 500mb level the best.  As we have seen many times this season, the strong ULL troughs that eject out into the TX Panhandle have been juicy and intensify as they move east.  I'm liking the trends off the EPS/GEPS/GEFS for this to be our next big storm to track.

0z Euro Control still has a storm...

image.png

 

 

Meantime, a nice little weekend snow event coming together for both of our regions....might put up a thread for this later today since a number of our members around KC/S IA/N IL/IN/ into the lower MI should be seeing snow from this event.

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snku_024h-imp.us_mw.png

 

06z RDPS...

snku_024h-imp.us_mw.png

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Tom said:

Overall, I think both the ICON and CMC have been handling this system at 500mb level the best.  As we have seen many times this season, the strong ULL troughs that eject out into the TX Panhandle have been juicy and intensify as they move east.  I'm liking the trends off the EPS/GEPS/GEFS for this to be our next big storm to track.

0z Euro Control still has a storm...

image.png

 

 

Meantime, a nice little weekend snow event coming together for both of our regions....might put up a thread for this later today since a number of our members around KC/S IA/N IL/IN/ into the lower MI should be seeing snow from this event.

snku_024h-imp.us_mw.png

snku_024h-imp.us_mw.png

 

06z RDPS...

snku_024h-imp.us_mw.png

 

 

There is a trend for KC to be quite snowy later Saturday into Saturday night and Tuesday/Wed next week... It trended north overnight with the heaviest bands. This storm looks decent as there are WSW out in western KS. already. Temps will be marginal again so we'll have to see how that sets up. IF we can get most of it to fall late Saturday into night time, obviously, we'll have a shot at better accumulations. 

I'm going to stay positive that we get hit with 1 of them and hopefully two of them as the snow might have some staying power as it looks much colder next week.

 

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It has been a number of years since we had a "real deal" SSW event that dislodged the Polar Vortex off the Pole into a favorable position to seed North America with very cold air.  This should drive the pattern next month and I'm anticipating a -AO block to develop over the pole.  Something the Euro OP/EPS are missing at the moment, however, the Canadian and GEFS are seeing the blocking over the Pole and Greenland.  This is going to be a crucial part of the pattern as we head into the opening week of FEB.  My money at this range is on the Canadian bc of the way its handling the high lat blocking.  After a major SSW event we usually see extensive high lat blocking and this is where the models could be very sketchy in the LR.  I'm seeing the CFSv2 weeklies picking up on it as well and locking a long term long wave trough over the Central CONUS.  Needless to say, we do have ourselves a solid extended period of wintry weather as we move through JAN into FEB.

 

image.gif

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12 hours ago, winterfreak said:

The CMC and ICON vs the EURO days 3-7? Yeah, I know which one I’m taking.

The EURO has not been that accurate for KC IMO, it has shown a lot of accumulating snow in the the 5-day window the last month or so.  Just last Friday, it showed this most recent snow storm hitting KC. It also forecasted 36 hours out that we would see a few inches of snow mid last week only to miss us to the south into Missouri. 

It has been a busy fall/winter of storms, we were in a major drought in Mid October, now, plenty of soil moisture. I'm up to 2.13 inches of rain for Jan. I have had over 8 inches of rain since late October. Great winter moisture, now, let's get a back loaded winter going!!!

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A chilly wet day on tap today across the area. As of 8am we had already received 0.15" of rain and look for another 0.25" to 0.50" during the day today. Tomorrow looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid-40's. Slightly above normal temps should continue for the next 7 days. Of note this is on average the coldest 7 day stretch of the winter season across Chester County. It looks like we still could see some wet snow arriving on Sunday afternoon especially across the higher western spots in the county. This should change to a cold rain before ending toward midnight. Another storm could start as snow on Tuesday night before mixing with and changing to a cold rain before ending on Wednesday.
The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1951. Our record low occurred on what was also the coldest day in Chester County history with a high temperature of 1 below zero after a record AM low of 11 degrees below zero back on this date in 1994. Daily precipitation record is the 1.91" that fell in 1996. Record daily snow is the 13.0" that fell on this date in 1961.
image.png.00af7b494e84165d79963a96487f0793.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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27 minutes ago, Tom said:

It has been a number of years since we had a "real deal" SSW event that dislodged the Polar Vortex off the Pole into a favorable position to seed North America with very cold air.  This should drive the pattern next month and I'm anticipating a -AO block to develop over the pole.  Something the Euro OP/EPS are missing at the moment, however, the Canadian and GEFS are seeing the blocking over the Pole and Greenland.  This is going to be a crucial part of the pattern as we head into the opening week of FEB.  My money at this range is on the Canadian bc of the way its handling the high lat blocking.  After a major SSW event we usually see extensive high lat blocking and this is where the models could be very sketchy in the LR.  I'm seeing the CFSv2 weeklies picking up on it as well and locking a long term long wave trough over the Central CONUS.  Needless to say, we do have ourselves a solid extended period of wintry weather as we move through JAN into FEB.

 

image.gif

Once we get past the pair of systems over the next week, this will be the thing to watch. Climatology says it usually puts us in a good position for winter (and its been 2 years since the last one). So I similarly expect that as this unfolds models will have some big adjustments to do in the longer range. Not sure how this would interfere with the LRC but I could imagine it would just blow the whole thing up since its such dominant forcing...even stronger than ENSO!

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Latest deterministic model round up for OK. Lots of uncertainty with respect to the storm track, but obviously we got snow in the vicinity with each model. CMC or ICON look the best. Ensemble means are mostly 1-2" still. Only at 2" on the year, so it'd be nice to get a good system in here. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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January 19th and still no snow this year in Grand Rapids.    Will it flip to a snowier colder pattern?   Looks to finally get colder.   How cold?  Track of storms?  Lake effect is a possibility as the great lakes are still primed for the middle of January.  All up in the air and still, always a week or so away.  

I would certainly believe we will get some light snow by Sunday night with the next system.  Will it be enough to score our first official inch of snow in the new year?   Next week's system is probably our  next best shot in SMI.   

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I'd say, lets go for an epic january and get no snow at all. Make it historic.. Then, hopefully, Feb and Mar could provide the goods, but we all know,its January, so eventually, it will snow. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Might be about time for a thread for the 24th-26th storm as all the models have it.      I'm bored and need something to track and read about.  Being a manager, I just sit on the internet all day...

'Being a manager, I just sit on the internet all day" LOL

Get a thread going! I agree, I need something to track even if it does not hit KC

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Sundays little system looks to be in the 1-3 inch range. Been very busy lately, so I lost track of what is going on. 

Woah...look out next week SMI. 😬

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z RDPS for the weekend... north and wetter. (probably too wet)

However, the NAM is much drier.

image.thumb.png.3ea26d2127483aee167f567ec1e749de.png

image.thumb.png.0a3448563751573c3620ecf0a04975e4.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Another overnight event as well.  I've barely seen snow falling during the daytime so far this winter.  

EVERYTHING is overnight.  I understand nights are long in winter, but the evening-to-morning timing of every system is pissing me off.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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AT the end of GFS 6z run overnight, it showed a massive storm to open up FEB with artic air to follow. 

50 day cycle would take you back to the Dec. 13th -15th Blizzard in the Northern Plains, remember? Huge storm in the Plains at that time. Rain further south, KC recorded 1-1.5 inches.  Following that, a much colder pattern set up and then the Christmas week storm showed up with the coldest airmass of the season. 

I think we can plan on the first half of FEB to be quite active and much colder for most per the LRC.

 

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Might be about time for a thread for the 24th-26th storm as all the models have it.      I'm bored and need something to track and read about.  Being a manager, I just sit on the internet all day...

I second this! 👏 Excited to track this storm for next week. Hopefully can get in on some of the action! All models have the storm there, just a little all over the place yet, which is expected at this point this far out.

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44 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

AT the end of GFS 6z run overnight, it showed a massive storm to open up FEB with artic air to follow. 

50 day cycle would take you back to the Dec. 13th -15th Blizzard in the Northern Plains, remember? Huge storm in the Plains at that time. Rain further south, KC recorded 1-1.5 inches.  Following that, a much colder pattern set up and then the Christmas week storm showed up with the coldest airmass of the season. 

I think we can plan on the first half of FEB to be quite active and much colder for most per the LRC.

 

Good catch. I was wondering the other day about when that might cycle back through and if this time it would be farther south.
Agri meteorologist Eric Snodgrass is really pointing to Late January through February as very cold and potentially stormy. He is on YouTube under Nutrien Ag Solutions and puts out daily videos. He is one of my go to weather sources. 

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12z GDPS... like the GFS, it throws some light snow back into Iowa, but the energy and moisture are focused well southeast, from St. Louis to Michigan.

image.thumb.png.15c4a7b50ced462b18e602fb18774bd7.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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17 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

LOL.  I give up.

image.thumb.png.17c2b85b2a770038b1d1bcbfed5d0236.png

Canadian and RGEM still have 3-4 in KC. Remember, just 10 hours before the storm in Omaha, the data was showing 10 inches of snow....

We have a storm heading this way, let's see what really happens. At least there is something to track. A big storm next week to track, let's see where that baby goes. 

Something I'm seeing on this mornings data is KC on eastward is in the snow hole now, dry air? East/NE East wind, tongue of dry air seems to be playing with the snow hole. That may not land on us. 

I agree, the trends are west and north...let's see if they trend back.

GFS was the only model to have this on Monday's data...just FYI. All other models are playing catch up. 

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The updated CPC long range guess is now out. In looking at both the CPC and the CFSv2 long range guesses.
CPC January
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
And the CFSv2 next 30 days.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
It looks like we will be between the cold to the NW and the warm to the SE. And according to the CPC there is a good chance of a lot of rain/snow and according to the CFSv2 there could be some colder than average temperatures. So the bottom line is we have a chance of a “bookend” winter this season. Remember the Great Lakes are still mostly ice free and more than likely warmer than average for this time of the winter. So the potential is there for some wild late winter weather. We shall see.

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3 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The updated CPC long range guess is now out. In looking at both the CPC and the CFSv2 long range guesses.
CPC January
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
And the CFSv2 next 30 days.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
It looks like we will be between the cold to the NW and the warm to the SE. And according to the CPC there is a good chance of a lot of rain/snow and according to the CFSv2 there could be some colder than average temperatures. So the bottom line is we have a chance of a “bookend” winter this season. Remember the Great Lakes are still mostly ice free and more than likely warmer than average for this time of the winter. So the potential is there for some wild late winter weather. We shall see.

If it does get colder, probably a big chance for lake effect snows since there is hardly any ice .  I think they were saying DTW recorded .2 inches of snow in January so far! 

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So far, DTW has received 0.2" for the month of January. Dtw should have had at least 7.9" to current date. Crazy! Still plenty of January left.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's interesting how for my part of the country the lack of low level cold air could make for precip type issues. The upper level low itself is quite strong, but models are spitting out rain even with 500-1000 thickness values in the low 530s. I suspect that snow would still develop northwest of the surface low with good rates, but accumulation might be lacking.

Models continue to bounce all over the place but overall my mood for this round is diminishing and I am expecting little to nothing. But with a SSW upcoming, should have some additional chances in the next 6 weeks. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

EVERYTHING is overnight.  I understand nights are long in winter, but the evening-to-morning timing of every system is pissing me off.

We have had 3 legit systems  to plow and salt here in Ottumwa.   On all 3 the snow didn't  stop falling  until 8 or 9 am!!! Worst posible timing to get 60 commercial  sites cleaned  up with businesses opening and both employees  and their customers  arriving  while my men working. Quite stressful.

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Good catch. I was wondering the other day about when that might cycle back through and if this time it would be farther south.
Agri meteorologist Eric Snodgrass is really pointing to Late January through February as very cold and potentially stormy. He is on YouTube under Nutrien Ag Solutions and puts out daily videos. He is one of my go to weather sources. 

Eric is very good! We follow him closely 

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20 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Since the winter of 2013-14, KC has averaged 25% below normal snowfall.  Over a 10 year period, that's really remarkable.    We had three years in a row during that time with single digit totals. I just saw something that said KC is now at it's halfway point of snowfall the snow season. There's nothing to suggest that we'll break double digits this year.  I have to think this run of bad luck is pretty much unprecedented.  Here's KC's snow history through the 18-19 winter.  Maybe you can find a worse stretch.  I couldn't.  

http://cdn.trb.tv/wdaf-ftp/almanac/wayrsnow.html

 

A little easier to look at here-- i have no opinions on the matter- just showing actual snowfall--

 

Least snowiest seasons-- KC AREA-

image.thumb.png.17e770b34aca6118d259f5a6d579e9fa.pngand most snowiest seasons- image.thumb.png.d469a9b2bc3c9b4ce28b151f0f087f44.png

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