Jump to content

January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

Recommended Posts

9 hours ago, Niko said:

Sundays little system looks to be in the 1-3 inch range. Been very busy lately, so I lost track of what is going on. 

Woah...look out next week SMI. 😬

It will be all "model head-fakes" here again, like the last 2 feet of snow shown. 

7 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

If it does get colder, probably a big chance for lake effect snows since there is hardly any ice .  I think they were saying DTW recorded .2 inches of snow in January so far! 

I swear, DTW must manufacture some of their own snow. I'm just 8 miles north, and the most I had was one day with a T in the morning and a T in the evening. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Took the temp anomaly for the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS for Omaha and averaged it out to the end of each run.

12Z Euro next 10 days: -.1 degrees below average 

12Z GFS next 10 days: -4.6 degrees below average 

Will the “trash” model that everyone loves to hate, that shows it being below average, but nothing that extreme below normal, be right?
Or will the “king” and it’s nearly exactly average temperatures be right?

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good morning. West Michigan now has had 23 days in a row of above average temperatures. There has not been a day with the high colder than 32 since December 28th  While there was 1 day with a reported 1’ of snow on the ground at GRR, here at my house there has not been a day with more than a trace on the ground since December 29th.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 42/34 there was 0.35” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record was a warm 64 way back in 1906 the record low was -15 in 1984 the record snow all of 6.8” fell in 1963. The overnight low and current temperature so far is 33 and at this time there is light snow falling and there is a trace of snow on the tops of cars here in my area. At this time there looks to be a chance of some snow on Sunday and maybe more so on next Wednesday. There is also a good chance of a week or so of below average temperatures but then there looks to be a warmup at the start of February.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Total rain from yesterday was 0.93". Today will turn windy with some sun but more clouds by PM. Tomorrow is on average the coldest day of the year...however this year we should reach well into the upper 30's to near 40 with partly sunny skies.
Next rain event arrives on Sunday night into Monday AM. Otherwise another snow/rain chance by Tuesday night into Wednesday as our very active pattern continues.
The record high for today is 67 degrees from 1951. Our record low is 8 below zero from 1984. Daily precipitation mark is 2.18" from 1979. The daily snow record is the 5.5" of snow that fell today back in 2000.
image.png.1e7b9d80a9a8ef2fc4ea19b4353ffed4.png
  • Like 1

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Took the temp anomaly for the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS for Omaha and averaged it out to the end of each run.

12Z Euro next 10 days: -.1 degrees below average 

12Z GFS next 10 days: -4.6 degrees below average 

Will the “trash” model that everyone loves to hate, that shows it being below average, but nothing that extreme below normal, be right?
Or will the “king” and it’s nearly exactly average temperatures be right?

What, no love for the CMC lol.  The GFS certainly has it's issues but around here it not only gets blamed for the mistakes it makes, it also gets blamed for the mistakes the other models make as well.  It is everyone's whipping boy,

  • lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Things should mostly quiet down for FSD again until the week of January 30th-February 3rd, when I would expect our next storm system to move through the area. As Mike alluded to above, that would align fairly closely with the storms on 10/26-10/27 and 12/13-12/14. Both of those systems were fairly pronounced and carried pretty decent moisture.

Until then, I'm crossing my fingers that this more suppressed jet can deliver some goods to the southern/eastern members that have up to this point largely missed out on the winter fun. Hope it works out!

Yeah Detroit area has been on the bench for a while.  Time to get in back in the game ! Will winter let us play this week. ? 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

What, no love for the CMC lol.  The GFS certainly has it's issues but around here it not only gets blamed for the mistakes it makes, it also gets blamed for the mistakes the other models make as well.  It is everyone's whipping boy,

I’ve got a model that works 100 % of the time. It called the GLOW model.  Only model I had when I was a kid.  Go Look Out the Window. Cosequently , some peeps on the West Coast rely on it heavily. Street lights make it more effective.  Think I might revert back to that. Less stress.  Lol!  

  • lol 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is Mother Nature about to Flip the Switch?  Are the models digesting the high lat blocking?  Is the SSW event going to displace the Polar Vortex?  What happens next?  I've been patiently waiting for a REAL winter like pattern to develop this month and it's finally getting recognized in the model world.  Unfortunately, most of us on here had to wait a very long time (except for those of you up north) for Winter to really get its act together and it appears a "Back Loaded Winter" is likely again this season.  

While we are in the midst of an extended JAN Thaw (23 AN days and counting in Chicago), there are much more clearer LR signals that Ol' Man Winter is on the verge of a Big comeback that will have extended legs and finish off MET Winter with a Bang.  I'm not here to sugar coat or hype (as some on here say), just stating the facts and the knowledge behind using the LRC, among other LR forecasting tools to predict the future weather.  Lot's of us on here are winter wx enthusiasts who seek to find + signs for wintry weather.  In fact, it's literally a part of my daily routine to filter through the data and come up with a possible solution or outcome.  This hobby can be very frustrating OR very exciting...OR...its just a loving passion of following the weather.  With that being said, here are my thoughts of where we could be heading.

The first big clue that will create an extended period of winter is the notable and robust SSW event that will take place later this month...notice where the PV gets displaced...right over Scandinavia.  Prime location for North America.

 image.gif

The 2nd clue is the high lat blocking that will return in the month of FEB and the LRC is an important tool to use where to predict this blocking.  The Baffin Bay Ridge and Greenland Block were both big players in the Autumn and at times in DEC but was more or less transient last month.  In my opinion, the blocking will re-appear and hold together for a longer period.  Is the CFSv2 getting a clue???  Look at the trends over the last 15 runs and its clear there is a -AO/-NAO pattern that blossoms in tandem.  Is the SSW event the culprit?  Sure, I do believe it is part of the developing pattern.

image.gif

 

The next 2 weeks will feature a wave train as the pattern blocks up and numerous chances for snow begin to show up in the modeling.  Both the 0z GEFS/EPS are showcasing a solid SW Flow pattern along with a bonafide colder pattern that becomes a sufficient snow producer as we get past the mid week system next week.  I'm seeing another interesting pattern during the 28th-31st to close out JAN as Major Arctic cold bleeds south and "fights" the SER.  There will be multiple waves that track underneath the "Belly of the Beast"....AKA...the North American Vortex before the early FEB Big Dog shows up.  Things are about to ramp up Big Time and it's about Dang Time!  At the end of the day, all we can do is sit back and watch what Mother Nature will do.  What I think may not be the end result, but I will say, I'm pretty darn confident that many of us on here will have a lot of Snow OTG by next month.  Hopefully its your back yard! 

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow...

06z GEFS...

image.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

As things stand I don't expect to get much if anything out of either the Jan 21-22 or Jan 24-26 systems. Holding at 3.1" of snow for the season and probably will stay close to that for the time being.

It's going to be a close call for you with the 24th-26th storm.  I hope you end up on the right side of things.  We had a wet storm come up from the Gulf in November seems like the I-70 corridor did well. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be a close call for you with the 24th-26th storm.  I hope you end up on the right side of things.  We had a wet storm come up from the Gulf in November seems like the I-70 corridor did well. 

That sounds to me like the Nov 26/27 storm which gave me 0.40" of rain and much higher amounts to my south and east towards your way. I'm kinda lost on the LRC cycle length so I don't know if that matches up or not. I did ride the edge on that one. Never a dull moment, huh...lol

  • Like 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

That sounds to me like the Nov 26/27 storm which gave me 0.40" of rain and much higher amounts to my south and east towards your way. I'm kinda lost on the LRC cycle length so I don't know if that matches up or not. I did ride the edge on that one. Never a dull moment, huh...lol

Not an LRC match but similar type storm, unless @Tomsees something different.  It would be a week late but it sure looks like it.  Crazy how you have lived on the edge with storms.  When I was younger it seemed like the shoe was on the other foot and your area was a magnet for storms and I was always on the edge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Clinton said:

Not an LRC match but similar type storm, unless @Tomsees something different.  It would be a week late but it sure looks like it.  Crazy how you have lived on the edge with storms.  When I was younger it seemed like the shoe was on the other foot and your area was a magnet for storms and I was always on the edge.

Yeah, it didn't seem like an LRC match to me but it was definitely a wet storm that looked similar to this one.

Another thing is it seemed the severe weather also shifted away to the east along with the snow. We always had lots of severe weather to go along with the snowy winters back in the day. We've had not much of either overall for seemingly 20-30 years now.

  • Like 2

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today's 12z suite of model runs are very encouraging for a lot of us who have been sitting on the sidelines and patiently waiting for Ol' Man Winter to return.  Per the latest 12z Euro, here comes the wave train...is JAN 21st going to be the day when the tides have turned???

1.gif

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro showing the cold coming south at the end of the run.  Looks like there may also be some storminess towards the end also.

Big Big Big storm at the end of the month and to start February.  It will be fun to watch it evolve on the models.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

That area in SE Iowa is also suspect. Ive recorded above average  precip Sept to Jan. Its extremely  muddy  and ponds and and streams have risen substantially.   A real  shortage  of good data in my area.

We are just now seeing water in the creeks and streams to starting to run again.  Farm ponds are still 3 to 4 feet low on our farm.  We could use some runoff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to see the Snowstake looking more like #winter again after weeks of barely covered grass.

2122228871_23-01-20APXsnowstick.thumb.jpg.b5d2f4edcfde6b008cbfa1f3e6e29a05.jpg

N Lwr didn't get as much as they thought, but it was just north. E UP scored bigly with an 8-12 event and I think they just had a WWA, lol. Nothing like a foot in 12 hrs. Solid! 

image.png.4772d2a5f2f550605d59180aff201b00.png

  • Like 5

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice to see the Snowstake looking more like #winter again after weeks of barely covered grass.

2122228871_23-01-20APXsnowstick.thumb.jpg.b5d2f4edcfde6b008cbfa1f3e6e29a05.jpg

N Lwr didn't get as much as they thought, but it was just north. E UP scored bigly with an 8-12 event and I think they just had a WWA, lol. Nothing like a foot in 12 hrs. Solid! 

image.png.4772d2a5f2f550605d59180aff201b00.png

The snow is kinda spotty up here, only about 4” at our place at Higgins but it definitely gets deeper the father north we went. I’m currently in the UP about 6 miles as the crow fly’s south of Big Bay about 800 feet above Lake Superior in the Huron Mts and there’s about 30” here after the 11” or so they got yesterday from that storm. We’re back country snowmobiling for a few days up here and we could definitely use more snow up here.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

This season is now top 5 snowiest October-January periods on record for Sioux Falls. This month is top 6 snowiest January. If we are able to get just 3.1 more inches by the end of the month it'd be the snowiest January on record. Not sure that's likely though as we will probably have to wait for a shot at the bigger storm near the beginning of February or so. It'll be close.

Pretty cool this was our first winter here and it ended up like this. We feel like between the record snow and a historic, absolutely frigid Arctic outbreak we really got the extremes out of the way right off the bat. Now we know we can handle just about whatever Mother Nature throws at us here. Well, in the winter at least...

Screenshot_20230120_212501_Vivaldi Browser.jpg

Screenshot_20230120_233230_Vivaldi Browser.jpg

Quite the way for Mother Nature to greet you and your family and experience a phenomenal 1st half of Winter, but as the saying goes, "It ain't ova, till its ova"...my gut says Mother Nature has plenty more in store for your region!  Heading into Winter you made several comments how cold and wintry NOV was and it certainly was a good gauge for where you winter was heading.  Now its time for some of us farther south to enjoy a bit Winter, ay??

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today should be chillier but still above normal with temps in the upper 30's to near 40 today. Our next rain event starts later tomorrow PM. If the precipitation arrives early enough in the PM we could see some wet snow mixed in and of course a couple models still show a small measurable amount of snow before the change to rain. Of note the GFS model has the rain changing back to snow with a small accumulation across much of Chester County on Monday morning. The next rainstorm looks more likely to start as snow on Wednesday with some minor accumulations possible (but it would still be our "largest" snow event of the season if it comes to pass) Turning colder by the end of the work week with temps closer to normal.
Our record high for today is 67 degrees way back in 1906. The record low is 11 below zero from 1987. Daily precipitation record is 1.88" from 1902 and the record daily snow is the 10.0" that fell today back in 2014.
image.png.ad3d7e15defd9e5170d223e73ca022ce.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After the sig system ends sometime Thurs am?, the GEM showing a decent clipper by Fri evening

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest op Euro has dropped any extreme cold and has gone to a milder west-east pattern, with rain at the end of the month.  🤦‍♂️  🤣

  • Like 2
  • Facepalm 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest op Euro has dropped any extreme cold and has gone to a milder west-east pattern, with rain at the end of the month.  🤦‍♂️  🤣

Yep.  This just isn’t a real winter SE of northern plains.   GFS is so extreme every run in the long range from all its solutions  it’s  laughable.   Should be just thrown out and mocked at this point.  Certainly not taken seriously.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Yep.  This just isn’t a real winter SE of northern plains.   GFS is so extreme every run in the long range from all its solutions  it’s  laughable.   Should be just thrown out and mocked at this point.  Certainly not taken seriously.  

It's not exactly been a classic January here either. No measurable snow since Christmas either.

Screenshot_20230121-155933-861.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a difference a couple hours east of here. We went to Elmwood, about 20 miles east of Lincoln, for an extended family get together. The farther east we got, the less snow. Elmwood had 0”. It did snow a little in Lincoln about 3:30 on the way back, but was melting on contact. Got back here after 5:30 to snow falling with some accumulation. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good morning! We took a road trip up to Bay City yesterday. It was kind of odd going up there in late January and not seeing any snow. Well there was snow just not very much. There were a few parking lot snow piles. Some snow in the ditches on the side of the roads. And get this it did snow some in spots yesterday and up in Bay City there was a solid trace of snow on the ground. While there we took a ride by the Saginaw Bay and in the years that I lived in Bay City I can not recall any year where there was no ice to be seen on the Bay. A very rare sight.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 32/30 there was a trace of snow fall and no sunshine. The overnight temperatures have held steady in the low 30’s and there is a very light trace of snow on the ground here in my yard at this time. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1933 and the record low of -6 was in 1970 the record snow fall amount of 12.3 fell in 2005. There is a chance of some very light snow today that will not amount to much. And while there is a chance of some snow on several days next week it looks like most of the snow will be to our SE and in fact the temperature will be near or just above average for most of the week.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, can't say the close of this month isn't delivering, finally. 

Its a huge split when viewing the metrics of our regions winter in the north as opposed to the near tropical experience we have had at times here on the south end. Seeing eastern and northern regions end their droughts in rapid succession this month, while still in the closing grips of La Niña is nothing short of remarkable either, IMO. 

Pattern reload by the 25th was a call i believe I made somewhere up the page. Looks to be dead-on. 

Gonna be a fun finish!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...