January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[bud2380]

GFS and Euro in strikingly good agreement at hour 123 for the weekend system.  Daytime snow in Iowa?? Didn't know that existed.  Again, since I won't be around, you can put this one in the bank, LOL.  

 

 

 

[bud2380]

Well the similarities end there, the GFS strengthens the system from there whereas the Euro weakens it significantly.  

[bud2380]

The Euro really spits this out into pieces of energy.  With a 24 hour snow map, it's not possible to capture the whole storm.  Here is a decent chunk of it anyways.  When the storm does reinvigorate it sets up a little further south than the GFS.

 

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Canadian has also come south with the waves this weekend and gives much of Central Nebraska a nice snow addition to our glacier.  This would be Saturday through Monday with multiple events.  Much of the snow farther south is from earlier in the week.

 

Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL! 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro.  For places further north, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa, this is primarily from Sat. to late Monday.  

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL! 

Now the Euro is showing something very similar.  Let's see how the week plays out.  Very cold air can sometimes lead to snow events that overachieve.  That is what happened around here the first 15 days of February, 2021.  

[tStacsh]

9 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL! 

Don't buy it.  2 weeks ago all the models had everyone under a glacier as well.  We haven't had 2" of the 24"+ what it showed.   

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Do you have any measurable snow otg in ur neck of the woods?

No.  Bare brown ground for now.

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Now the Euro is showing something very similar.  Let's see how the week plays out.  Very cold air can sometimes lead to snow events that overachieve.  That is what happened around here the first 15 days of February, 2021.  

Feb 2021 was indeed  a overachiever! For 15 or 16 straight  days non stop  waves and disturbances.. snow on snow on snow much of which wasnt on long range models.  And lots of sub zero temps

[bud2380]

Looks pretty cold.  

 

[chescowxman]

Today's "event" brings our monthly snowfall to 0.5"

Seasonal snow is now up to 1.3" which is only 12.4" below normal through today or 9% of average snowfall.

If we receive no additional snow this would be the 8th least snowy January on record since 1894

[Niko]

Looky looky at whats brewing down the road......

[Clinton]

From Gary Lezaks facebook page.

Gary Lezak 

 Here is a two week forecast & a 100-day forecast. The Patent-Pending LRC Model provides the methodology & Technology to make these 100-day predictions that are as accurate as the 7-day forecast on your app. The NFL draft is April 27-29 and this is the most likely date range for a severe weather outbreak over the plains and southeast. An Arctic Blast Watch is issued by Weather 2020 with the first blast due in this weekend.

And 2 cycles down the road.

[Hawkeye]

Models are still trying to nail down the possible band of snow streaking eastward through the region this weekend.  It's wavering north/south and organized/weak.  Tonight's runs have been better for the NE/IA/nIL corridor.

[westMJim]

Good morning! Well it took until January 24^th but for the first time this month there is more than just a trace of snow on the ground here. At this time there is a whopping 0.25” of snow on the ground in my yard. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 32/27 there was 0.01” of precipitation that was 0.2” of snow fall. There was once again no sunshine. The overnight low so far for today is 29 and the current temperature is 30 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 62 was set in 1967 and the record low of -19 was set in 1948 the most snow fall for today is 6.5” in 1930.

Well it still looks like the most snow on Thursday will stay to our SE. That is rather common in our area for systems snow events.

 

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are still trying to nail down the possible band of snow streaking eastward through the region this weekend.  It's wavering north/south and organized/weak.  Tonight's runs have been better for the NE/IA/nIL corridor.

Snow-On-Snow...Here we Go!  Looks like we'll be making up in the snow dept in a hurry around these parts.  Glad to see all the global models dialing in on the Severe cold that's coming for our members up north and then a bonafide snowy pattern for the remainder of our Sub.  Of course, not every single member on here will equally benefit but the odds of seeing the snows falling are increasing in due time.  This will likely be a rather interesting 20 day (or more) period of fun tracking the cold and storms to go along with it.

 

 

[chescowxman]

Should see a little sun today with temps as usual slightly above normal. Snow should arrive after rush hour tomorrow and quickly mix with and then change to rain...up to at most 1" looks possible before the rain. The NWS has put a Winter Weather Advisory in place for our bordering counties of Berks and Lancaster so those in the Far Western areas of the county should see the best chance of seeing the most snow we have seen this season >0.5" We should dry out for most of the rest of the week into the weekend with above normal temps and the next shot of rain not till Sunday Night into Monday.

The record high for today is 72 degrees set in 1967. The record low is 4 below zero from 1930. Our daily precipitation record is 2.76" from 1979 and the daily snow mark is the 3.7" that fell today in 2015.

[OKwx2k4]

0z GFS turns me into Buffalo by Feb 5th. 

That's a 1918 scenario and is plausible, actually. 

[Tom]

Our temps have held sub freezing for a good 36 hour period, in fact, we dipped down to 21F yesterday morning.  Sadly, that was our coldest JAN morning of the year!  Pretty incredible how warm it has been during the overnight hours.  You can thank the persistent cloud cover that work as a blanket and keep the diurnal temps from fluctuating much.  I'm hoping the ground is frozen enough that when the snow does fall it won't melt much from underneath.

Alrighty then, ya'll ready to track some more systems?  As much as I'm thrilled to see more snow in the forecast, my days are slammed trying to fit in my work load every single day.  I have so much going on that its kinda hard at times trying to focus.  In any event, our wx hobby of tracking winter systems should enlighten the mood throughout the day....none more-so than today!

Let's take a look at the 0z EPS.... it is trending a bit wetter for the weekend system along the I-80 corridor that'll kick start the real colder pattern...then, it's starting to dial in on the storm to close out JAN and open up FEB, followed by what should be a Big Dog during the FEB 3rd-4th.  GHD storm?  The backloaded winter of the 2022-23 season is in the works!

 

 

[MIKEKC]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Our temps have held sub freezing for a good 36 hour period, in fact, we dipped down to 21F yesterday morning.  Sadly, that was our coldest JAN morning of the year!  Pretty incredible how warm it has been during the overnight hours.  You can thank the persistent cloud cover that work as a blanket and keep the diurnal temps from fluctuating much.  I'm hoping the ground is frozen enough that when the snow does fall it won't melt much from underneath.

Alrighty then, ya'll ready to track some more systems?  As much as I'm thrilled to see more snow in the forecast, my days are slammed trying to fit in my work load every single day.  I have so much going on that its kinda hard at times trying to focus.  In any event, our wx hobby of tracking winter systems should enlighten the mood throughout the day....none more-so than today!

Let's take a look at the 0z EPS.... it is trending a bit wetter for the weekend system along the I-80 corridor that'll kick start the real colder pattern...then, it's starting to dial in on the storm to close out JAN and open up FEB, followed by what should be a Big Dog during the FEB 3rd-4th.  GHD storm?  The backloaded winter of the 2022-23 season is in the works!

 

 

We'll know by FEB 28th who will be super happy and who will be left frustrated again.....(We better be in the happy slot here in KC)

Plenty of winter to go, let's see how it plays out. When that cold air gets into the pattern, it's a no brainer that snow chances are easier to come by. Here in KC, the winter has been quite wet! Not boring at all, plenty of action, however, we have been missing the cold. 

[tStacsh]

Looks like a pretty good shot of arctic air, then a big rebound afterward to warmth.  Classic La NIna.  

[Tom]

21 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like a pretty good shot of arctic air, then a big rebound afterward to warmth.  Classic La NIna.  

For Texas…nasso much up this way

[tStacsh]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

For Texas…nasso much up this way

I think a good 10 day cold shot and then by the second week of February it rebounds to a warmer pattern.   Kind of how it's been all winter.   

[bud2380]

I think I'll have to shovel when I get home from Minnesota Sunday evening.  

 

[Hawkeye]

Canadian... a bit farther south.  The ICON is similar to this.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and ICON have another good system at the end of the month.  The Canadian has strung-out energy shooting across the south.

[Hawkeye]

UK

[bud2380]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS and ICON have another good system at the end of the month.  The Canadian has strung-out energy shooting across the south.

I don't want to jinx it, but it sure looks like we are finally moving into an active period with cold weather in place.  I like our chances of seeing some snow over the next 2 weeks better than I have at any point this season.  Hopefully it pans out. 

[GDR]

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like the 12z Euro must be having issues.  Hasn't loaded on TropicalTidbits or Pivotal Weather, which I subscribe to.  

[bud2380]

From Pivotal

 

[Hawkeye]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro for the weekend system(s).

The Euro is the farthest north model.

[Clinton]

12z GEFS for the weekend storm.  

[Clinton]

GEPS for the weekend storm.

[bud2380]

Euro is the furthest north that I have seen.

 

[bud2380]

well now the 18z GFS shifted way north too.

 

[jaster220]

While I've been focused on the immediate headliner, the GFS has been surprisingly consistent for 4 runs with another snow maker

 

[jaster220]

CPC has their antennae up for the Wk2 threat:

 

[jcwxguy]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

well now the 18z GFS shifted way north too.

 

 

was really hoping to reel this one for omaha and lincoln

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

CPC has their antennae up for the Wk2 threat:

 

This is awesome. That round's going to be cold too!