bud2380 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GFS and Euro in strikingly good agreement at hour 123 for the weekend system. Daytime snow in Iowa?? Didn't know that existed. Again, since I won't be around, you can put this one in the bank, LOL. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Well the similarities end there, the GFS strengthens the system from there whereas the Euro weakens it significantly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The Euro really spits this out into pieces of energy. With a 24 hour snow map, it's not possible to capture the whole storm. Here is a decent chunk of it anyways. When the storm does reinvigorate it sets up a little further south than the GFS. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12z Canadian has also come south with the waves this weekend and gives much of Central Nebraska a nice snow addition to our glacier. This would be Saturday through Monday with multiple events. Much of the snow farther south is from earlier in the week. Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 12z Euro. For places further north, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa, this is primarily from Sat. to late Monday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL! Now the Euro is showing something very similar. Let's see how the week plays out. Very cold air can sometimes lead to snow events that overachieve. That is what happened around here the first 15 days of February, 2021. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL! Don't buy it. 2 weeks ago all the models had everyone under a glacier as well. We haven't had 2" of the 24"+ what it showed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Niko said: Do you have any measurable snow otg in ur neck of the woods? No. Bare brown ground for now. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: Now the Euro is showing something very similar. Let's see how the week plays out. Very cold air can sometimes lead to snow events that overachieve. That is what happened around here the first 15 days of February, 2021. Feb 2021 was indeed a overachiever! For 15 or 16 straight days non stop waves and disturbances.. snow on snow on snow much of which wasnt on long range models. And lots of sub zero temps 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Looks pretty cold. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Today's "event" brings our monthly snowfall to 0.5" Seasonal snow is now up to 1.3" which is only 12.4" below normal through today or 9% of average snowfall. If we receive no additional snow this would be the 8th least snowy January on record since 1894 1 3 Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looky looky at whats brewing down the road...... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 From Gary Lezaks facebook page. Gary Lezak Here is a two week forecast & a 100-day forecast. The Patent-Pending LRC Model provides the methodology & Technology to make these 100-day predictions that are as accurate as the 7-day forecast on your app. The NFL draft is April 27-29 and this is the most likely date range for a severe weather outbreak over the plains and southeast. An Arctic Blast Watch is issued by Weather 2020 with the first blast due in this weekend. And 2 cycles down the road. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Models are still trying to nail down the possible band of snow streaking eastward through the region this weekend. It's wavering north/south and organized/weak. Tonight's runs have been better for the NE/IA/nIL corridor. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Good morning! Well it took until January 24th but for the first time this month there is more than just a trace of snow on the ground here. At this time there is a whopping 0.25” of snow on the ground in my yard. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 32/27 there was 0.01” of precipitation that was 0.2” of snow fall. There was once again no sunshine. The overnight low so far for today is 29 and the current temperature is 30 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 62 was set in 1967 and the record low of -19 was set in 1948 the most snow fall for today is 6.5” in 1930. Well it still looks like the most snow on Thursday will stay to our SE. That is rather common in our area for systems snow events. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Models are still trying to nail down the possible band of snow streaking eastward through the region this weekend. It's wavering north/south and organized/weak. Tonight's runs have been better for the NE/IA/nIL corridor. Snow-On-Snow...Here we Go! Looks like we'll be making up in the snow dept in a hurry around these parts. Glad to see all the global models dialing in on the Severe cold that's coming for our members up north and then a bonafide snowy pattern for the remainder of our Sub. Of course, not every single member on here will equally benefit but the odds of seeing the snows falling are increasing in due time. This will likely be a rather interesting 20 day (or more) period of fun tracking the cold and storms to go along with it. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Should see a little sun today with temps as usual slightly above normal. Snow should arrive after rush hour tomorrow and quickly mix with and then change to rain...up to at most 1" looks possible before the rain. The NWS has put a Winter Weather Advisory in place for our bordering counties of Berks and Lancaster so those in the Far Western areas of the county should see the best chance of seeing the most snow we have seen this season >0.5" We should dry out for most of the rest of the week into the weekend with above normal temps and the next shot of rain not till Sunday Night into Monday. The record high for today is 72 degrees set in 1967. The record low is 4 below zero from 1930. Our daily precipitation record is 2.76" from 1979 and the daily snow mark is the 3.7" that fell today in 2015. 1 Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 0z GFS turns me into Buffalo by Feb 5th. That's a 1918 scenario and is plausible, actually. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Our temps have held sub freezing for a good 36 hour period, in fact, we dipped down to 21F yesterday morning. Sadly, that was our coldest JAN morning of the year! Pretty incredible how warm it has been during the overnight hours. You can thank the persistent cloud cover that work as a blanket and keep the diurnal temps from fluctuating much. I'm hoping the ground is frozen enough that when the snow does fall it won't melt much from underneath. Alrighty then, ya'll ready to track some more systems? As much as I'm thrilled to see more snow in the forecast, my days are slammed trying to fit in my work load every single day. I have so much going on that its kinda hard at times trying to focus. In any event, our wx hobby of tracking winter systems should enlighten the mood throughout the day....none more-so than today! Let's take a look at the 0z EPS.... it is trending a bit wetter for the weekend system along the I-80 corridor that'll kick start the real colder pattern...then, it's starting to dial in on the storm to close out JAN and open up FEB, followed by what should be a Big Dog during the FEB 3rd-4th. GHD storm? The backloaded winter of the 2022-23 season is in the works! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Tom said: Our temps have held sub freezing for a good 36 hour period, in fact, we dipped down to 21F yesterday morning. Sadly, that was our coldest JAN morning of the year! Pretty incredible how warm it has been during the overnight hours. You can thank the persistent cloud cover that work as a blanket and keep the diurnal temps from fluctuating much. I'm hoping the ground is frozen enough that when the snow does fall it won't melt much from underneath. Alrighty then, ya'll ready to track some more systems? As much as I'm thrilled to see more snow in the forecast, my days are slammed trying to fit in my work load every single day. I have so much going on that its kinda hard at times trying to focus. In any event, our wx hobby of tracking winter systems should enlighten the mood throughout the day....none more-so than today! Let's take a look at the 0z EPS.... it is trending a bit wetter for the weekend system along the I-80 corridor that'll kick start the real colder pattern...then, it's starting to dial in on the storm to close out JAN and open up FEB, followed by what should be a Big Dog during the FEB 3rd-4th. GHD storm? The backloaded winter of the 2022-23 season is in the works! We'll know by FEB 28th who will be super happy and who will be left frustrated again.....(We better be in the happy slot here in KC) Plenty of winter to go, let's see how it plays out. When that cold air gets into the pattern, it's a no brainer that snow chances are easier to come by. Here in KC, the winter has been quite wet! Not boring at all, plenty of action, however, we have been missing the cold. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looks like a pretty good shot of arctic air, then a big rebound afterward to warmth. Classic La NIna. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 21 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Looks like a pretty good shot of arctic air, then a big rebound afterward to warmth. Classic La NIna. For Texas…nasso much up this way 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Tom said: For Texas…nasso much up this way I think a good 10 day cold shot and then by the second week of February it rebounds to a warmer pattern. Kind of how it's been all winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 I think I'll have to shovel when I get home from Minnesota Sunday evening. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Canadian... a bit farther south. The ICON is similar to this. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 The GFS and ICON have another good system at the end of the month. The Canadian has strung-out energy shooting across the south. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 UK 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The GFS and ICON have another good system at the end of the month. The Canadian has strung-out energy shooting across the south. I don't want to jinx it, but it sure looks like we are finally moving into an active period with cold weather in place. I like our chances of seeing some snow over the next 2 weeks better than I have at any point this season. Hopefully it pans out. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looks like the 12z Euro must be having issues. Hasn't loaded on TropicalTidbits or Pivotal Weather, which I subscribe to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 From Pivotal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z Euro for the weekend system(s). The Euro is the farthest north model. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 12z GEFS for the weekend storm. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 GEPS for the weekend storm. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Euro is the furthest north that I have seen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 well now the 18z GFS shifted way north too. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 While I've been focused on the immediate headliner, the GFS has been surprisingly consistent for 4 runs with another snow maker 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 CPC has their antennae up for the Wk2 threat: 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 hours ago, bud2380 said: well now the 18z GFS shifted way north too. was really hoping to reel this one for omaha and lincoln 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: CPC has their antennae up for the Wk2 threat: This is awesome. That round's going to be cold too! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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