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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The 0z EPS starting to show a stronger system to end the month and to start February.  The Euro operational kept the energy split and strung out a little but is trending to towards a strong 2nd piece.  The big dog is starting to bark a little louder KC. @Tom @jaster220 @Niko

0z EPS

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0z GEFS is starting to come around.

1675425600-z5oXO21BfsU.png

I like the 0z EPS run last night digging the MSLP down into Texarkana and up through the OHV...eerily similar set up we just went through but this time a different caliber of a storm potential.  The tanking -EPO is wrecking havoc in the modeling and they ALWAYS have issues figuring out how to handle the trough that rounds the 4 corners.

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After our largest snow event (0.8") of the year here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA yesterday turned to rain we ended up with a combined melted snow equivalent and rain of 0.94". We are now running 0.39" above normal in the rain department for 2023...however our seasonal snow of 2.1" is 12.6" below our normal snow totals through yesterday. Of note over in Philadelphia and New York City they have both yet to receive any measurable snow this season. NY has an excellent chance to set a new record for longest periods between snowfalls. Philly has a long way to go as they are only at 320 days with the record being the snowless winter of 1972-3 as they experienced 616 days between snowfalls.
We are well on our way to a Top 5 warmest January here in Chester County but we will finish well below the warmest January way back in 1932. Above normal temps look to continue through the end of the month (next Tuesday) with our next chance at showers likely by Tuesday night.
The record high for today is 75 degrees set in 1950. The record low is 1 below zero from 1922. The daily precipitation and snow record is 1.40" and 14.0" of snow that was part of the 2 day snowstorm that resulted in 16.0" of snow across the county ending on the 27th back in 2011.
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The cold no longer has very long staying power on the models.  Looks to warm up later in the first week of February again...GFS is stupid and I probably shouldn't look at it, but has flipped completely back to warm in the long range.  

-EPO could be the dagger that pulls back the warmth.   

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

It’s a great winter day here in Chitown with light snow falling and temps are in the upper 20’s.  It finally looks and feels like JAN.  Miss these kinda a days!  💪 

Same here. Peeking out 2nd floor windows at my office and seeing so much snow on the trees (normally you'd need to go up close to see the ground) it's like a winter wonderland I've not seen here, or anywhere in quite a while. Heavy duty plastering yesterday!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Getting these little bursts of moderate/heavy wet snow in Ashland. Not sticking. 

Just another fake flake day. This is starting to remind me of the '20-'21 winter in Klamath Falls, was filled with a bunch of teases, trace/wet days and a few random measurable snows were thrown in. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It's looking like a dominant northern stream flow is going to kill any action around here next week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Coming out of my local Target this evening 

 

 

IMG_20230126_181540259.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Enjoy Hawkes!!  I know how much you guys up North have relished this Winter!  ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

😂😂😂

OMADOME!!!

A0B03697-E256-4001-B28D-1608A664FA3A.jpeg

Look at that darn thing!!   
cuts off just north of DFW!! 😖

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Good morning! The heaviest of the lake effect snow yesterday fell just south of the Grand Rapids area. So while there were areas of around 10” of snow to the south here in GR just over 1” fell. The official H/L was 33/27 there was 0.09” of precipitation and that 1.1” of snow fall. The sun did come out for a couple of minutes for a 1% of possible sunshine. There was 3” of snow on the ground yesterday at 7AM. The overnight low so far here at my house is the current temperature of 24 with some breaks in the clouds. For today the average H/L is 31/17 the record high of 62 was in 1916 and the record low of -12 was set in 2003. The most snow fall of 12” was in 1967. There is a chance of some light snow today and again tomorrow. Today looks like it could become windy. We shall see how much  snow fall for today. It looks like the low pressure for today is a long ways to our north so we shall see just how much snow we will get.

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With the additional snow yesterday, my snow depth is only about 2.5" bc of the melting during the storm.  It should provide a nice base to the snow that falls this weekend.  I'm looking forward to the snow showers today along with the gusty winds.  Coldest morning of the season JAN as we have dipped down to 16F.

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Today will be a near normal day today with highs in the mid to upper 30's. The weekend looks mostly cloudy with a slight chance of some showers on Sunday night (Go Birds!) It looks like we will start off February with below normal temperatures and maybe a couple shots at some snow....but the way this season has gone I would not hold my breath for snow!
The record high for today is 71 degrees from 1916. Our record low is 2 below zero from 1987. Daily precipitation record is 1.46" from 1990. The daily snow mark is the 6.5" that fell today in 1941.
image.png.da53fc67290134d0916c41df9474f9a3.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Seasonal Average = 36" of snow

image.thumb.png.62136fe02f470a15ce89b9a30664b9b5.png

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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50's to 20's late tomorrow in KC, how is there not a storm blowing up on us!!!! So close on the CMC and GFS to getting an enhanced band of snow/ice late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. Clinton looks like he may get into a band of snow to whiten the ground up. Need to keep an eye on that for some last minute changes...

 

Next week's big storm, GONE!!!!! 

GARBAGE!!!

Gogfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png Chiefs!!

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

The wind is blowing and gusty out of the South with very powdery snow flying and accumulating.  Already have a nice coating and the viz has dropped rather quickly.

Legit winter's day, even over here in D-town with last night's few tenths blowing off building roof across the intersection where my firm is located.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Legit winter's day, even over here in D-town with last night's few tenths blowing off building roof across the intersection where my firm is located.

It’s like the over here and then some!  Man, what’s a beautiful scene right now. Can’t see 2 blocks down.

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

It’s like the over here and then some!  Man, what’s a beautiful scene right now. Can’t see 2 blocks down.

Love a good mid-winter arctic frontal passage! Congrats and hey, you have more snow OTG than I thought. Looks like winter there!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

50's to 20's late tomorrow in KC, how is there not a storm blowing up on us!!!! So close on the CMC and GFS to getting an enhanced band of snow/ice late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. Clinton looks like he may get into a band of snow to whiten the ground up. Need to keep an eye on that for some last minute changes...

 

Next week's big storm, GONE!!!!! 

GARBAGE!!!

Gogfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png Chiefs!!

GFS with a well placed weenie band with some forcing.  That will be a watch the radar event if it happens.

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Weather Fun Fact Time!

Topeka has recorded 5.2" of snow this season. At this same time last year, we had recorded 5.1" so yes we are ahead of last year by a tenth!

We picked up 16" more last year to finish with 21.1" for the season total. I'm betting the under this year.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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January snuck up on me with this warm departure. Just when I thought we were having at least an average Winter on the mean temperature.. December was solid, with a -1.3 in Ashland. January looks like Dec 2021 minus a couple degrees, across KY. 

But even with that said, the warmth is not nearly as long lived as it was last Winter.. 

imgonline-com-ua-twotoone-sjyd5NY3dq0qJF3e.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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image.png

image.png

image.png

 

Multi day ice event possible Monday-Thursday. Monday the column is below freezing but the lift is all below the DGZ so it might be sleet. Probably a mix of sleet and zr for Tuesday. Some models hold onto low level cold for one last shot Wed or Thurs, but not all. We will have to see how that one goes. Could be a strip of major ice somewhere...likely south of me. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Here is what I mean with what might be unconventional sleet or freezing rain. The DGZ is unsaturated, so your precip generation in this case probably occurs in that 0 to -5C layer. That's a mixed bag for what you get. image.png

SnowflakeMorphology2med.jpg

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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ORD picked up an additional 0.8" of Snow yesterday and it came from 2 strong snow squalls that came through.  In fact, one of them produced 0.5" of snow in 10 minutes over MDW.  ORD dipped to 13F yesterday morning and that is the coldest low of this month.  Models suggest we head sub zero Tue am for the 1st since Christmas Week.

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29 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Here is what I mean with what might be unconventional sleet or freezing rain. The DGZ is unsaturated, so your precip generation in this case probably occurs in that 0 to -5C layer. That's a mixed bag for what you get. image.png

SnowflakeMorphology2med.jpg

Just an FYI, we do have a FEB thread now if you didn't see it.  As far as the wx pattern in YBY, I'm worried about the ice potential as it looks no bueno at this range.

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