January 2023 Observations and Discussions

Clinton · January 22

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

The thermal gradient pattern being advertised is going to produce one hellova fight. I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system. I found over the years where we have seen patterns that develop as such that they end up being more or less long duration snow events and ice events. Nevertheless, our regions are in the zone of opportunity for sure. I like our odds of making up in the snow dept. I would not be shocked to end up being average for the season in the snow dept by end of JAN.

Certainly possible the CMC showed that last night. The AO and NAO look to be hovering around neutral going forward as of today. It looks like the MJO and EPO will drive the pattern. Over the next 5 days lets see if the NAO dips negative. I could be wrong but I think there should be some strong blocking to open February.

As far as snowfall goes I've been trying to convince @sumweatherdudethat KC would finish with average or above average snowfall for weeks. He will probably wack me over the head with a hammer if this part of the pattern doesn't deliver lol.

jaster220 · January 22

13 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's a no-snow

That blue set of rings is the anti-snow force field, aka "the Omadome"

jaster220 · January 22

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Maybe we still have a shot at achieving the snowiest January on record?

All 00z model runs showed a system moving through the area next weekend that would have enough snowfall to push us over the edge. This system has come and gone on the models a couple times though so really just keeping an eye on it at this point.

Euro's version = your next big dog, and my warm rainer that will wipe-out any decent ground covering I get this week.

Tom · January 22

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Maybe we still have a shot at achieving the snowiest January on record?

All 00z model runs showed a system moving through the area next weekend that would have enough snowfall to push us over the edge. This system has come and gone on the models a couple times though so really just keeping an eye on it at this point.

It’s coming…I’ll be rooting for you!

chescowxman · January 22

Increasing clouds for today with rain arriving from south to north across Chester County by evening. There could be a brief mix with some snow or sleet at the start of the precipitation but any small accumulation should be well north of the county. Some models hint at a change back to snow tomorrow morning with some minor accumulations but I am skeptical. Otherwise a 1 day break on Tuesday before snow arrives on Wednesday morning. The NWS sees most of Chester County at least starting as snow on Wednesday with some accumulations possible before any change to rain later on Wednesday. Quieter weather to finish out the week with slightly above normal temps continuing.

The record high for today is 72 degrees way back in 1906. The record low was 14 below zero in 1984. Daily precipitation record and snow record are from 1987 when 12.8" of snow fell with a water equivalent of 1.47"

image.png.c1c3356e044e660ab14efda21f9e02d0.png

OmahaSnowFan · January 22

7 more straight days of clouds and cold. No wonder so many suffer from seasonal depression.

CentralNebWeather · January 22

On the way home from church, I snapped a few more pictures from the neighborhood. Got a little more snow to add to the base.

CentralNebWeather · January 22

Sure looks like after the Arctic front comes through Friday, there will be multiple snow chances going forward in very cold air. Those are typically high ratio snows that can really add up, but are forecast amounts can change close to the event.

jaster220 · January 22

GEM liking the Cornbelt next week

Tom · January 22

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GEM liking the Cornbelt next week

Friday's Clipper is looking like another nice re-fresher to the snow pack before the real deal arctic air takes over along with multiple systems to track!

WinterSquall23 · January 22

With the Lakes wide open for business. I think all we need is the right conditions and LES could be on tap for us in the Detroit metro area. It’s happened before when LES snows has given us a few inches.

Hawkeye · January 22

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system.

That's what the Euro is showing. It's an active pattern, but it's very progressive west-east. All we get is a series of weak waves that race through and barely drop any snow.

All models show a band of decent snow streaking eastward into the region next weekend, but they are all north.

Timmy Supercell · January 22

Had freezing rain this morning (now regular rain, but cold). Low of 24 in Ashland.

Think we're going into February with snowstorms?

Tom · January 22

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We've had very dense fog the last couple nights with lows in the single digits. Pair that with some beautifully blue sunny skies and you have yourself quite the wintry scene.

These are hands down the best photos of the Winter! Gorgeous shots. You typically see these images out of the Arctic. You must be really enjoying this winter up there.

jaster220 · January 22

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

These are hands down the best photos of the Winter! Gorgeous shots. You typically see these images out of the Arctic. You must be really enjoying this winter up there.

Yep, reminds me of a hoar frost we had in 2014 - gorgeous winter shots!

Tom · January 22

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, reminds me of a hoar frost we had in 2014 - gorgeous winter shots!

@Beltrami Islandposted some beautiful ones last year or the year prior iirc. At least some members on here are enjoying some awesome winter conditions. I have to keep reminding myself it’s mid JAN. Hey, at least I’ll save on my gas bill next month! Lol

Timmy Supercell · January 22

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

We've had very dense fog the last couple nights with lows in the single digits. Pair that with some beautifully blue sunny skies and you have yourself quite the wintry scene.

Thanks for sharing these, awesome pics!

Tom · January 22

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

That's what the Euro is showing. It's an active pattern, but it's very progressive west-east. All we get is a series of weak waves that race through and barely drop any snow.

All models show a band of decent snow streaking eastward into the region next weekend, but they are all north.

I’m just glad to see the chances of tracking some snows are showing up instead of the boring 3 week stretch we’ve had. The early FEB storm is the one to watch to see it wrap up.

Clinton · January 22

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’m just glad to see the chances of tracking some snows are showing up instead of the boring 3 week stretch we’ve had. The early FEB storm is the one to watch to see it wrap up.

I was looking at 12z models and thought by Tuesday we could have 3 active storm threads. Storm for Wednesday and Thursday, clipper, and models are getting some consistency with a storm on the 29th. Stach won't be bored lol.

Tom · January 22

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was looking at 12z models and thought by Tuesday we could have 3 active storm threads. Storm for Wednesday and Thursday, clipper, and models are getting some consistency with a storm on the 29th. Stach won't be bored lol.

Ya, I’m sure we’ll all be very active on here…finally!

winterfreak · January 23

We’ve had so many “this is the one to watch” storms. What has that resulted in? 1” of snow through the end of January. Need a near record month just to reach climo lol.

Lutzowgl14 · January 23

29 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

We’ve had so many “this is the one to watch” storms. What has that resulted in? 1” of snow through the end of January. Need a near record month just to reach climo lol.

Yeah I agree. It’s been the same way for the Milwaukee area. Hopefully we get some real snowstorms soon

Hawkeye · January 23

GFS and GDPS continue to show a good snow system next weekend. The GFS has shifted south to Iowa. The GDPS is still a bit farther north.

Edit: The UK has shifted even farther south than the GFS.

westMJim · January 23

Good morning! As has been the case since December 28^th yesterday was another above average mean temperature day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 34/29 there was 0.08” of precipitation that fell as 0.5” of snow fall. There was no sunshine. The temperature held steady at 31 all night long and here at my house there is a trace of snow on the ground at the current time. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 56 was in 1909 and the record low of -19 was in 1948. The most snow fall of 8” was way back in 1894. Since December 28^th the coldest maximum has been 32. Not sure what the mid-winter record is but that is a very long time of days with highs of at or above freezing. In past warm January’s only 1932 had a longer string but that year the string started on December 9^th

Looking ahead it looks like there is a chance we will have at least some snow on the ground by the weekend. The biggest event still looks to pass our area to the SE but we may have s couple of inches of snow fall.

At this time if the latest CFSv2 plays out there looks like there maybe a two week period of below average temperatures before it warms up in mid February.

chescowxman · January 23

We have picked up 0.60" of rain so far since last evening with 0.14" since midnight. We have started to see some snow mixing in with the rain here in East Nantmeal this morning. The rain should change to wet snow and taper off by around noontime today. Any minor accumulations would likely be in the more elevated spots in Western Chesco. Tomorrow looks to be a brief break in precipitation with partly sunny skies. It looks like snow will arrive Wednesday morning with possible accumulations of 2" to 4" before a change to rain late in the day. Clearing and colder by Friday with moderating temps again by next weekend.

The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1906. Record low is 5 below zero in 1936. The daily precipitation and snow record is from the Blizzard in 2016. We picked up an additional 22" of snow today following the 4" that fell on the 22nd bringing our snow total to 26.0". That ties for the 8th largest snowstorm in Chester County history along with January 29, 1922.

image.png.d66210c5044fdcab66d3493c64d8518f.png

CentralNebWeather · January 23

12z ICON wants to put down snow with the Arctic front in different waves Saturday through Monday. GFS has been north with these waves. Snow maps haven't loaded yet for me for the ICON.

bud2380 · January 23

I can pretty much guarantee this one will pan out since I'll be out of town this weekend.

snku_024h-imp.us_mw.png

CentralNebWeather · January 23

12z Canadian has also come south with the waves this weekend and gives much of Central Nebraska a nice snow addition to our glacier. This would be Saturday through Monday with multiple events. Much of the snow farther south is from earlier in the week.

CentralNebWeather · January 23

At the end of the 12z Canadian, looks like a potential big storm is developing. That is 8-9 days away so don't look at specifics, just the trends are pointing to potentially something to watch. This would be that Feb. 1st time frame that many have mentioned on here. At least the pattern looks active for many on here.

MIKEKC · January 23

The storm tomorrow night and into Wednesday should jump start a pattern with storm chances through the middle of Feb. if you follow the LRC.

Dec. 12th-15th was the massive blizzard in the northern Plains. All rain here in KC but a lot. A smaller storm occurred here in KC on Dec. 19th with a bit of snow. After that, the arctic flooded in and we had the Dec.22nd snow with bigger amounts off to our east.

Per the 12z Canadian model, it has the big storm in the Plains 50 days later from the Dec. 12th-15th storm and plenty of cold...

So, after this storm, the next big one in the Plains will occur next week. We'll see who cashes in on that. Maybe a few smaller ones out in front of it on the first push of cold air coming in this weekend just in time for the 5th straight AFC title game @ Arrowhead come 5:30 Sunday. This looks supper cold if the data is right....

Grizzcoat · January 23

Know these type of pics are getting a little old on here of hoarfrost etc... But first time sun is out here after a good night of FZFG, it's breathtaking in person.

Niko · January 23

Huge potential in the snow dept in the coming days. Stay tuned!

chescowxman · January 23

Ended up with 0.5" of snow following the change from rain - ties us with 12/23 for "biggest" snowstorm of the season!

Clinton · January 23

40 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

At the end of the 12z Canadian, looks like a potential big storm is developing. That is 8-9 days away so don't look at specifics, just the trends are pointing to potentially something to watch. This would be that Feb. 1st time frame that many have mentioned on here. At least the pattern looks active for many on here.

Woof Woof

Niko · January 23

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Woof Woof

Do you have any measurable snow otg in ur neck of the woods?

bud2380 · January 23

GFS and Euro in strikingly good agreement at hour 123 for the weekend system. Daytime snow in Iowa?? Didn't know that existed. Again, since I won't be around, you can put this one in the bank, LOL.

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

bud2380 · January 23

Well the similarities end there, the GFS strengthens the system from there whereas the Euro weakens it significantly.

bud2380 · January 23

The Euro really spits this out into pieces of energy. With a 24 hour snow map, it's not possible to capture the whole storm. Here is a decent chunk of it anyways. When the storm does reinvigorate it sets up a little further south than the GFS.

snku_024h-imp.us_c.png

Bryan1117 · January 23

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Canadian has also come south with the waves this weekend and gives much of Central Nebraska a nice snow addition to our glacier. This would be Saturday through Monday with multiple events. Much of the snow farther south is from earlier in the week.

Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL!

CentralNebWeather · January 23

12z Euro. For places further north, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa, this is primarily from Sat. to late Monday.

CentralNebWeather · January 23

7 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL!

Now the Euro is showing something very similar. Let's see how the week plays out. Very cold air can sometimes lead to snow events that overachieve. That is what happened around here the first 15 days of February, 2021.

tStacsh · January 23

9 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Please Canadian... don't try to pull me back in with snow maps like this, I am not buying it all LOL!

Don't buy it. 2 weeks ago all the models had everyone under a glacier as well. We haven't had 2" of the 24"+ what it showed.

Clinton · January 23

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Do you have any measurable snow otg in ur neck of the woods?

No. Bare brown ground for now.

OttumwaSnomow · January 23

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Now the Euro is showing something very similar. Let's see how the week plays out. Very cold air can sometimes lead to snow events that overachieve. That is what happened around here the first 15 days of February, 2021.

Feb 2021 was indeed a overachiever! For 15 or 16 straight days non stop waves and disturbances.. snow on snow on snow much of which wasnt on long range models. And lots of sub zero temps

bud2380 · January 23

Looks pretty cold.

sfct_anom-imp.us_mw.png

chescowxman · January 23

Today's "event" brings our monthly snowfall to 0.5"

Seasonal snow is now up to 1.3" which is only 12.4" below normal through today or 9% of average snowfall.

If we receive no additional snow this would be the 8th least snowy January on record since 1894

Niko · January 24

Looky looky at whats brewing down the road......

Clinton · January 24

From Gary Lezaks facebook page.

Gary Lezak

Here is a two week forecast & a 100-day forecast. The Patent-Pending LRC Model provides the methodology & Technology to make these 100-day predictions that are as accurate as the 7-day forecast on your app. The NFL draft is April 27-29 and this is the most likely date range for a severe weather outbreak over the plains and southeast. An Arctic Blast Watch is issued by Weather 2020 with the first blast due in this weekend.

327191288_918148872877856_1911511363525544182_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=0gaE6hujJuMAX86t5K4&tn=6W6SQ1ez_XOGW83C&_nc_ht=scontent-ord5-1.xx&oh=00_AfAQYVHFAUiiJZEo-gqCbIxvA8rl7jB8DAIHgRHt3O4g0w&oe=63D403F2

And 2 cycles down the road.

327037476_1657873327963825_5599718770831482845_n.jpg?stp=cp6_dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=lhActjQmPbEAX9uc8dw&_nc_ht=scontent-ord5-1.xx&oh=00_AfC8Gkf9kj08Gm_HCOcG5n5UnbZkoD7SzN89tNEtGlBGVA&oe=63D34945

Hawkeye · January 24

Models are still trying to nail down the possible band of snow streaking eastward through the region this weekend. It's wavering north/south and organized/weak. Tonight's runs have been better for the NE/IA/nIL corridor.

westMJim · January 24

Good morning! Well it took until January 24^th but for the first time this month there is more than just a trace of snow on the ground here. At this time there is a whopping 0.25” of snow on the ground in my yard. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 32/27 there was 0.01” of precipitation that was 0.2” of snow fall. There was once again no sunshine. The overnight low so far for today is 29 and the current temperature is 30 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 62 was set in 1967 and the record low of -19 was set in 1948 the most snow fall for today is 6.5” in 1930.

Well it still looks like the most snow on Thursday will stay to our SE. That is rather common in our area for systems snow events.

January 2023 Observations and Discussions

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