January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Clinton]

Drought is almost wiped out in MO

[OttumwaSnomow]

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Drought is almost wiped out in MO

That area in SE Iowa is also suspect. Ive recorded above average  precip Sept to Jan. Its extremely  muddy  and ponds and and streams have risen substantially.   A real  shortage  of good data in my area.

[Clinton]

29 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

That area in SE Iowa is also suspect. Ive recorded above average  precip Sept to Jan. Its extremely  muddy  and ponds and and streams have risen substantially.   A real  shortage  of good data in my area.

We are just now seeing water in the creeks and streams to starting to run again.  Farm ponds are still 3 to 4 feet low on our farm.  We could use some runoff.

[bud2380]

Going to visit my in-laws next weekend.  They live right by this -24 where I have the red dot.  Should be a good time.  

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Running nearly 7 degrees ABOVE NORMAL, 1.15” of moisture but only 2” of official snowfall so far this month.

Still under double digits for total snowfall this season too.

[jaster220]

Nice to see the Snowstake looking more like #winter again after weeks of barely covered grass.

N Lwr didn't get as much as they thought, but it was just north. E UP scored bigly with an 8-12 event and I think they just had a WWA, lol. Nothing like a foot in 12 hrs. Solid! 

[Up_north_MI]

38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice to see the Snowstake looking more like #winter again after weeks of barely covered grass.

N Lwr didn't get as much as they thought, but it was just north. E UP scored bigly with an 8-12 event and I think they just had a WWA, lol. Nothing like a foot in 12 hrs. Solid! 

The snow is kinda spotty up here, only about 4” at our place at Higgins but it definitely gets deeper the father north we went. I’m currently in the UP about 6 miles as the crow fly’s south of Big Bay about 800 feet above Lake Superior in the Huron Mts and there’s about 30” here after the 11” or so they got yesterday from that storm. We’re back country snowmobiling for a few days up here and we could definitely use more snow up here.

[hawkstwelve]

This season is now top 5 snowiest October-January periods on record for Sioux Falls. This month is top 6 snowiest January. If we are able to get just 3.1 more inches by the end of the month it'd be the snowiest January on record. Not sure that's likely though as we will probably have to wait for a shot at the bigger storm near the beginning of February or so. It'll be close.

Pretty cool this was our first winter here and it ended up like this. We feel like between the record snow and a historic, absolutely frigid Arctic outbreak we really got the extremes out of the way right off the bat. Now we know we can handle just about whatever Mother Nature throws at us here. Well, in the winter at least...

[Tom]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

This season is now top 5 snowiest October-January periods on record for Sioux Falls. This month is top 6 snowiest January. If we are able to get just 3.1 more inches by the end of the month it'd be the snowiest January on record. Not sure that's likely though as we will probably have to wait for a shot at the bigger storm near the beginning of February or so. It'll be close.

Pretty cool this was our first winter here and it ended up like this. We feel like between the record snow and a historic, absolutely frigid Arctic outbreak we really got the extremes out of the way right off the bat. Now we know we can handle just about whatever Mother Nature throws at us here. Well, in the winter at least...

Quite the way for Mother Nature to greet you and your family and experience a phenomenal 1st half of Winter, but as the saying goes, "It ain't ova, till its ova"...my gut says Mother Nature has plenty more in store for your region!  Heading into Winter you made several comments how cold and wintry NOV was and it certainly was a good gauge for where you winter was heading.  Now its time for some of us farther south to enjoy a bit Winter, ay??

[chescowxman]

Today should be chillier but still above normal with temps in the upper 30's to near 40 today. Our next rain event starts later tomorrow PM. If the precipitation arrives early enough in the PM we could see some wet snow mixed in and of course a couple models still show a small measurable amount of snow before the change to rain. Of note the GFS model has the rain changing back to snow with a small accumulation across much of Chester County on Monday morning. The next rainstorm looks more likely to start as snow on Wednesday with some minor accumulations possible (but it would still be our "largest" snow event of the season if it comes to pass) Turning colder by the end of the work week with temps closer to normal.

Our record high for today is 67 degrees way back in 1906. The record low is 11 below zero from 1987. Daily precipitation record is 1.88" from 1902 and the record daily snow is the 10.0" that fell today back in 2014.

[gimmesnow]

I've been waiting a month for this but it's finally time for our two weeks of winter, I'm stoked!

[jaster220]

After the sig system ends sometime Thurs am?, the GEM showing a decent clipper by Fri evening

[Hawkeye]

The latest op Euro has dropped any extreme cold and has gone to a milder west-east pattern, with rain at the end of the month.    

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The latest op Euro has dropped any extreme cold and has gone to a milder west-east pattern, with rain at the end of the month.    

Yep.  This just isn’t a real winter SE of northern plains.   GFS is so extreme every run in the long range from all its solutions  it’s  laughable.   Should be just thrown out and mocked at this point.  Certainly not taken seriously.  

[hawkstwelve]

Just because we can... Look at the ECMWF weeklies control model. 30 inches for FSD over the next 45 days and Wisconsin is completely buried from border to border.

[Beltrami Island]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Yep.  This just isn’t a real winter SE of northern plains.   GFS is so extreme every run in the long range from all its solutions  it’s  laughable.   Should be just thrown out and mocked at this point.  Certainly not taken seriously.  

It's not exactly been a classic January here either. No measurable snow since Christmas either.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Sigh…

[Mr Marine Layer]

41 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Sigh…

It's a no-snow

[CentralNebWeather]

What a difference a couple hours east of here. We went to Elmwood, about 20 miles east of Lincoln, for an extended family get together. The farther east we got, the less snow. Elmwood had 0”. It did snow a little in Lincoln about 3:30 on the way back, but was melting on contact. Got back here after 5:30 to snow falling with some accumulation. 

[westMJim]

Good morning! We took a road trip up to Bay City yesterday. It was kind of odd going up there in late January and not seeing any snow. Well there was snow just not very much. There were a few parking lot snow piles. Some snow in the ditches on the side of the roads. And get this it did snow some in spots yesterday and up in Bay City there was a solid trace of snow on the ground. While there we took a ride by the Saginaw Bay and in the years that I lived in Bay City I can not recall any year where there was no ice to be seen on the Bay. A very rare sight.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 32/30 there was a trace of snow fall and no sunshine. The overnight temperatures have held steady in the low 30’s and there is a very light trace of snow on the ground here in my yard at this time. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 56 was set in 1933 and the record low of -6 was in 1970 the record snow fall amount of 12.3 fell in 2005. There is a chance of some very light snow today that will not amount to much. And while there is a chance of some snow on several days next week it looks like most of the snow will be to our SE and in fact the temperature will be near or just above average for most of the week.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, can't say the close of this month isn't delivering, finally. 

Its a huge split when viewing the metrics of our regions winter in the north as opposed to the near tropical experience we have had at times here on the south end. Seeing eastern and northern regions end their droughts in rapid succession this month, while still in the closing grips of La Niña is nothing short of remarkable either, IMO. 

Pattern reload by the 25th was a call i believe I made somewhere up the page. Looks to be dead-on. 

Gonna be a fun finish!

[Tom]

I'll just keep it short and sweet....#SnowBlitz is coming for those of us around the Lower Lakes/MW/Plains/OHV...my, oh my, this pattern is gonna be loading up with wave after wave after wave underneath the "Belly of the Beast".  Models are going to waver big time in this type of pattern.  I remember in Cycle #1 how active it was and the models never really got a clue till a day or two prior to the system showing up.  I do have a good felling that the cold will bleed south into the S Plains and create a nasty Thermal Gradient alongside the fighting SER.  Ice & Snow is going to be likely, esp the time of year where its prone to do so down in the deep south of Texas/Arklatex Region, etc.  Buckle up, it's going to get a bit wild on here!

0z EPS...

 

 

0z GEFS..

 

[westMJim]

There is now light snow falling here in MBY and there is a trace of snow now on the ground.

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'll just keep it short and sweet....#SnowBlitz is coming for those of us around the Lower Lakes/MW/Plains/OHV...my, oh my, this pattern is gonna be loading up with wave after wave after wave underneath the "Belly of the Beast".  Models are going to waver big time in this type of pattern.  I remember in Cycle #1 how active it was and the models never really got a clue till a day or two prior to the system showing up.  I do have a good felling that the cold will bleed south into the S Plains and create a nasty Thermal Gradient alongside the fighting SER.  Ice & Snow is going to be likely, esp the time of year where its prone to do so down in the deep south of Texas/Arklatex Region, etc.  Buckle up, it's going to get a bit wild on here!

0z EPS...

 

 

0z GEFS..

 

Storms, rumors of storm, predictions of storms.  The big dog is beginning to bark in the long range.

[Clinton]

GEFS for Jan 31st through February 6th.

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GEFS for Jan 31st through February 6th.

The thermal gradient pattern being advertised is going to produce one hellova fight.  I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system.  I found over the years where we have seen patterns that develop as such that they end up being more or less long duration snow events and ice events.  Nevertheless, our regions are in the zone of opportunity for sure.  I like our odds of making up in the snow dept.  I would not be shocked to end up being average for the season in the snow dept by end of JAN.

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

The thermal gradient pattern being advertised is going to produce one hellova fight.  I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system.  I found over the years where we have seen patterns that develop as such that they end up being more or less long duration snow events and ice events.  Nevertheless, our regions are in the zone of opportunity for sure.  I like our odds of making up in the snow dept.  I would not be shocked to end up being average for the season in the snow dept by end of JAN.

Certainly possible the CMC showed that last night.  The AO and NAO look to be hovering around neutral going forward as of today.  It looks like the MJO and EPO will drive the pattern.  Over the next 5 days lets see if the NAO dips negative.  I could be wrong but I think there should be some strong blocking to open February.

As far as snowfall goes I've been trying to convince @sumweatherdudethat KC would finish with average or above average snowfall for weeks.  He will probably wack me over the head with a hammer if this part of the pattern doesn't deliver lol.

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's a no-snow

That blue set of rings is the anti-snow force field, aka "the Omadome"

[hawkstwelve]

Maybe we still have a shot at achieving the snowiest January on record?

All 00z model runs showed a system moving through the area next weekend that would have enough snowfall to push us over the edge. This system has come and gone on the models a couple times though so really just keeping an eye on it at this point.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Maybe we still have a shot at achieving the snowiest January on record?

All 00z model runs showed a system moving through the area next weekend that would have enough snowfall to push us over the edge. This system has come and gone on the models a couple times though so really just keeping an eye on it at this point.

Euro's version = your next big dog, and my warm rainer that will wipe-out any decent ground covering I get this week.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Maybe we still have a shot at achieving the snowiest January on record?

All 00z model runs showed a system moving through the area next weekend that would have enough snowfall to push us over the edge. This system has come and gone on the models a couple times though so really just keeping an eye on it at this point.

It’s coming…I’ll be rooting for you!

[chescowxman]

Increasing clouds for today with rain arriving from south to north across Chester County by evening. There could be a brief mix with some snow or sleet at the start of the precipitation but any small accumulation should be well north of the county. Some models hint at a change back to snow tomorrow morning with some minor accumulations but I am skeptical. Otherwise a 1 day break on Tuesday before snow arrives on Wednesday morning. The NWS sees most of Chester County at least starting as snow on Wednesday with some accumulations possible before any change to rain later on Wednesday. Quieter weather to finish out the week with slightly above normal temps continuing.

The record high for today is 72 degrees way back in 1906. The record low was 14 below zero in 1984. Daily precipitation record and snow record are from 1987 when 12.8" of snow fell with a water equivalent of 1.47"

[OmahaSnowFan]

7 more straight days of clouds and cold. No wonder so many suffer from seasonal depression.

[CentralNebWeather]

On the way home from church, I snapped a few more pictures from the neighborhood. Got a little more snow to add to the base. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Sure looks like after the Arctic front comes through Friday, there will be multiple snow chances going forward in very cold air. Those are typically high ratio snows that can really add up, but are forecast amounts can change close to the event. 

[jaster220]

GEM liking the Cornbelt next week

 

[Tom]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GEM liking the Cornbelt next week

 

Friday's Clipper is looking like another nice re-fresher to the snow pack before the real deal arctic air takes over along with multiple systems to track!

[WinterSquall23]

With the Lakes wide open for business.  I think all we need is the right conditions and LES could be on tap for us in the Detroit metro area.  It’s happened before when LES snows has given us a few inches.  

[Hawkeye]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system.

That's what the Euro is showing.  It's an active pattern, but it's very progressive west-east.  All we get is a series of weak waves that race through and barely drop any snow.

All models show a band of decent snow streaking eastward into the region next weekend, but they are all north.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had freezing rain this morning (now regular rain, but cold). Low of 24 in Ashland.

Think we're going into February with snowstorms?

[hawkstwelve]

We've had very dense fog the last couple nights with lows in the single digits. Pair that with some beautifully blue sunny skies and you have yourself quite the wintry scene.

 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We've had very dense fog the last couple nights with lows in the single digits. Pair that with some beautifully blue sunny skies and you have yourself quite the wintry scene.

 

These are hands down the best photos of the Winter!  Gorgeous shots.  You typically see these images out of the Arctic.  You must be really enjoying this winter up there.

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

These are hands down the best photos of the Winter!  Gorgeous shots.  You typically see these images out of the Arctic.  You must be really enjoying this winter up there.

Yep, reminds me of a hoar frost we had in 2014 - gorgeous winter shots!

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, reminds me of a hoar frost we had in 2014 - gorgeous winter shots!

@Beltrami Islandposted some beautiful ones last year or the year prior iirc.  At least some members on here are enjoying some awesome winter conditions.  I have to keep reminding myself it’s mid JAN.  Hey, at least I’ll save on my gas bill next month!  Lol

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

We've had very dense fog the last couple nights with lows in the single digits. Pair that with some beautifully blue sunny skies and you have yourself quite the wintry scene.

 

Thanks for sharing these, awesome pics! 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

That's what the Euro is showing.  It's an active pattern, but it's very progressive west-east.  All we get is a series of weak waves that race through and barely drop any snow.

All models show a band of decent snow streaking eastward into the region next weekend, but they are all north.

I’m just glad to see the chances of tracking some snows are showing up instead of the boring 3 week stretch we’ve had.  The early FEB storm is the one to watch to see it wrap up.

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’m just glad to see the chances of tracking some snows are showing up instead of the boring 3 week stretch we’ve had.  The early FEB storm is the one to watch to see it wrap up.

I was looking at 12z models and thought by Tuesday we could have 3 active storm threads.  Storm for Wednesday and Thursday, clipper, and models are getting some consistency with a storm on the 29th.  Stach won't be bored lol.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was looking at 12z models and thought by Tuesday we could have 3 active storm threads.  Storm for Wednesday and Thursday, clipper, and models are getting some consistency with a storm on the 29th.  Stach won't be bored lol.

Ya, I’m sure we’ll all be very active on here…finally!

[winterfreak]

We’ve had so many “this is the one to watch” storms. What has that resulted in? 1” of snow through the end of January. Need a near record month just to reach climo lol.

[Lutzowgl14]

29 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

We’ve had so many “this is the one to watch” storms. What has that resulted in? 1” of snow through the end of January. Need a near record month just to reach climo lol.

Yeah I agree.  It’s been the same way for the Milwaukee area. Hopefully we get some real snowstorms soon