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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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I'll just keep it short and sweet....#SnowBlitz is coming for those of us around the Lower Lakes/MW/Plains/OHV...my, oh my, this pattern is gonna be loading up with wave after wave after wave underneath the "Belly of the Beast".  Models are going to waver big time in this type of pattern.  I remember in Cycle #1 how active it was and the models never really got a clue till a day or two prior to the system showing up.  I do have a good felling that the cold will bleed south into the S Plains and create a nasty Thermal Gradient alongside the fighting SER.  Ice & Snow is going to be likely, esp the time of year where its prone to do so down in the deep south of Texas/Arklatex Region, etc.  Buckle up, it's going to get a bit wild on here!

0z EPS...

 

 

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0z GEFS..

 

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'll just keep it short and sweet....#SnowBlitz is coming for those of us around the Lower Lakes/MW/Plains/OHV...my, oh my, this pattern is gonna be loading up with wave after wave after wave underneath the "Belly of the Beast".  Models are going to waver big time in this type of pattern.  I remember in Cycle #1 how active it was and the models never really got a clue till a day or two prior to the system showing up.  I do have a good felling that the cold will bleed south into the S Plains and create a nasty Thermal Gradient alongside the fighting SER.  Ice & Snow is going to be likely, esp the time of year where its prone to do so down in the deep south of Texas/Arklatex Region, etc.  Buckle up, it's going to get a bit wild on here!

0z EPS...

 

 

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0z GEFS..

 

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Storms, rumors of storm, predictions of storms.  The big dog is beginning to bark in the long range.

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GEFS for Jan 31st through February 6th.

1675728000-mxlUAFDKpzQ.png

The thermal gradient pattern being advertised is going to produce one hellova fight.  I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system.  I found over the years where we have seen patterns that develop as such that they end up being more or less long duration snow events and ice events.  Nevertheless, our regions are in the zone of opportunity for sure.  I like our odds of making up in the snow dept.  I would not be shocked to end up being average for the season in the snow dept by end of JAN.

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

The thermal gradient pattern being advertised is going to produce one hellova fight.  I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system.  I found over the years where we have seen patterns that develop as such that they end up being more or less long duration snow events and ice events.  Nevertheless, our regions are in the zone of opportunity for sure.  I like our odds of making up in the snow dept.  I would not be shocked to end up being average for the season in the snow dept by end of JAN.

Certainly possible the CMC showed that last night.  The AO and NAO look to be hovering around neutral going forward as of today.  It looks like the MJO and EPO will drive the pattern.  Over the next 5 days lets see if the NAO dips negative.  I could be wrong but I think there should be some strong blocking to open February.

As far as snowfall goes I've been trying to convince @sumweatherdudethat KC would finish with average or above average snowfall for weeks.  He will probably wack me over the head with a hammer if this part of the pattern doesn't deliver lol.

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13 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's a no-snow

That blue set of rings is the anti-snow force field, aka "the Omadome"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Maybe we still have a shot at achieving the snowiest January on record?

All 00z model runs showed a system moving through the area next weekend that would have enough snowfall to push us over the edge. This system has come and gone on the models a couple times though so really just keeping an eye on it at this point.

gem-all-central-snow_24hr_kuchera-4950400.png

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ecmwf-deterministic-central-snow_24hr_kuchera-5015200.png

Euro's version = your next big dog, and my warm rainer that will wipe-out any decent ground covering I get this week.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Maybe we still have a shot at achieving the snowiest January on record?

All 00z model runs showed a system moving through the area next weekend that would have enough snowfall to push us over the edge. This system has come and gone on the models a couple times though so really just keeping an eye on it at this point.

gem-all-central-snow_24hr_kuchera-4950400.png

gfs-deterministic-central-snow_24hr_kuchera-4993600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-central-snow_24hr_kuchera-5015200.png

It’s coming…I’ll be rooting for you!

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Increasing clouds for today with rain arriving from south to north across Chester County by evening. There could be a brief mix with some snow or sleet at the start of the precipitation but any small accumulation should be well north of the county. Some models hint at a change back to snow tomorrow morning with some minor accumulations but I am skeptical. Otherwise a 1 day break on Tuesday before snow arrives on Wednesday morning. The NWS sees most of Chester County at least starting as snow on Wednesday with some accumulations possible before any change to rain later on Wednesday. Quieter weather to finish out the week with slightly above normal temps continuing.
The record high for today is 72 degrees way back in 1906. The record low was 14 below zero in 1984. Daily precipitation record and snow record are from 1987 when 12.8" of snow fell with a water equivalent of 1.47"
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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GEM liking the Cornbelt next week

 

23-01-22 12z GDPS h168 Surface.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm wondering if the systems that are showing up on the operational runs will end up being strung out waves of low pressure or if there is enough blocking to create a deeper low pressure system.

That's what the Euro is showing.  It's an active pattern, but it's very progressive west-east.  All we get is a series of weak waves that race through and barely drop any snow.

All models show a band of decent snow streaking eastward into the region next weekend, but they are all north.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had freezing rain this morning (now regular rain, but cold). Low of 24 in Ashland.

Think we're going into February with snowstorms?

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We've had very dense fog the last couple nights with lows in the single digits. Pair that with some beautifully blue sunny skies and you have yourself quite the wintry scene.

 

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These are hands down the best photos of the Winter!  Gorgeous shots.  You typically see these images out of the Arctic.  You must be really enjoying this winter up there.

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

These are hands down the best photos of the Winter!  Gorgeous shots.  You typically see these images out of the Arctic.  You must be really enjoying this winter up there.

Yep, reminds me of a hoar frost we had in 2014 - gorgeous winter shots!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, reminds me of a hoar frost we had in 2014 - gorgeous winter shots!

@Beltrami Islandposted some beautiful ones last year or the year prior iirc.  At least some members on here are enjoying some awesome winter conditions.  I have to keep reminding myself it’s mid JAN.  Hey, at least I’ll save on my gas bill next month!  Lol

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

We've had very dense fog the last couple nights with lows in the single digits. Pair that with some beautifully blue sunny skies and you have yourself quite the wintry scene.

 

IMG_20230122_130352.png

IMG_20230122_130306.jpg

IMG_20230122_130311.jpg

IMG_20230122_130316.jpg

Thanks for sharing these, awesome pics! 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

That's what the Euro is showing.  It's an active pattern, but it's very progressive west-east.  All we get is a series of weak waves that race through and barely drop any snow.

All models show a band of decent snow streaking eastward into the region next weekend, but they are all north.

I’m just glad to see the chances of tracking some snows are showing up instead of the boring 3 week stretch we’ve had.  The early FEB storm is the one to watch to see it wrap up.

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’m just glad to see the chances of tracking some snows are showing up instead of the boring 3 week stretch we’ve had.  The early FEB storm is the one to watch to see it wrap up.

I was looking at 12z models and thought by Tuesday we could have 3 active storm threads.  Storm for Wednesday and Thursday, clipper, and models are getting some consistency with a storm on the 29th.  Stach won't be bored lol.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was looking at 12z models and thought by Tuesday we could have 3 active storm threads.  Storm for Wednesday and Thursday, clipper, and models are getting some consistency with a storm on the 29th.  Stach won't be bored lol.

Ya, I’m sure we’ll all be very active on here…finally!

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29 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

We’ve had so many “this is the one to watch” storms. What has that resulted in? 1” of snow through the end of January. Need a near record month just to reach climo lol.

Yeah I agree.  It’s been the same way for the Milwaukee area. Hopefully we get some real snowstorms soon 

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GFS and GDPS continue to show a good snow system next weekend.  The GFS has shifted south to Iowa.  The GDPS is still a bit farther north.

Edit:  The UK has shifted even farther south than the GFS.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Good morning! As has been the case since December 28th yesterday was another above average mean temperature day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 34/29 there was 0.08” of precipitation that fell as 0.5” of snow fall. There was no sunshine. The temperature held steady at 31 all night long and here at my house there is a trace of snow on the ground at the current time. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 56 was in 1909 and the record low of -19 was in 1948. The most snow fall of 8” was way back in 1894. Since December 28th the coldest maximum has been 32. Not sure what the mid-winter record is but that is a very long time of days with highs of at or above freezing. In past warm January’s only 1932 had a longer string but that year the string started on December 9th

Looking ahead it looks like there is a chance we will have at least some snow on the ground by the weekend. The biggest event still looks to pass our area to the SE but we may have s couple of inches of snow fall.

At this time if the latest CFSv2 plays out there looks like there maybe a two week period of below average temperatures before it warms up in mid February. 

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We have picked up 0.60" of rain so far since last evening with 0.14" since midnight. We have started to see some snow mixing in with the rain here in East Nantmeal this morning. The rain should change to wet snow and taper off by around noontime today. Any minor accumulations would likely be in the more elevated spots in Western Chesco. Tomorrow looks to be a brief break in precipitation with partly sunny skies. It looks like snow will arrive Wednesday morning with possible accumulations of 2" to 4" before a change to rain late in the day. Clearing and colder by Friday with moderating temps again by next weekend.
The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1906. Record low is 5 below zero in 1936. The daily precipitation and snow record is from the Blizzard in 2016. We picked up an additional 22" of snow today following the 4" that fell on the 22nd bringing our snow total to 26.0". That ties for the 8th largest snowstorm in Chester County history along with January 29, 1922.
image.png.d66210c5044fdcab66d3493c64d8518f.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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At the end of the 12z Canadian, looks like a potential big storm is developing.  That is 8-9 days away so don't look at specifics, just the trends are pointing to potentially something to watch.  This would be that Feb. 1st time frame that many have mentioned on here.  At least the pattern looks active for many on here.

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The storm tomorrow night and into Wednesday should jump start a pattern with storm chances through the middle of Feb. if you follow the LRC.

Dec. 12th-15th was the massive blizzard in the northern Plains. All rain here in KC but a lot. A smaller storm occurred here in KC on Dec. 19th with a bit of snow. After that, the arctic flooded in and we had the Dec.22nd snow with bigger amounts off to our east. 

Per the 12z Canadian model, it has the big storm in the Plains 50 days later from the Dec. 12th-15th storm and plenty of cold...

So, after this storm, the next big one in the Plains will occur next week. We'll see who cashes in on that. Maybe a few smaller ones out in front of it on the first push of cold air coming in this weekend just in time for the 5th straight AFC title game @ Arrowhead come 5:30 Sunday. This looks supper cold if the data is right....

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Know these type of pics are getting a little old on here of hoarfrost etc... But first time sun is out here after a good night of FZFG, it's breathtaking in person.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Huge potential in the snow dept in the coming days. Stay tuned!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Ended up with 0.5" of snow following the change from rain - ties us with 12/23 for "biggest" snowstorm of the season!

 

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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40 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

At the end of the 12z Canadian, looks like a potential big storm is developing.  That is 8-9 days away so don't look at specifics, just the trends are pointing to potentially something to watch.  This would be that Feb. 1st time frame that many have mentioned on here.  At least the pattern looks active for many on here.

Woof Woof 

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Woof Woof 

Do you have any measurable snow otg in ur neck of the woods?

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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