January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Clinton]

12z GEFS for the weekend storm.  

[Clinton]

GEPS for the weekend storm.

[bud2380]

Euro is the furthest north that I have seen.

 

[bud2380]

well now the 18z GFS shifted way north too.

 

[jaster220]

While I've been focused on the immediate headliner, the GFS has been surprisingly consistent for 4 runs with another snow maker

 

[jaster220]

CPC has their antennae up for the Wk2 threat:

 

[hawkstwelve]

Probabilities for > 3 inches of snow on the 18z EPS. This is a slight adjustment south compared to 12z.

[jcwxguy]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

well now the 18z GFS shifted way north too.

 

 

was really hoping to reel this one for omaha and lincoln

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

CPC has their antennae up for the Wk2 threat:

 

This is awesome. That round's going to be cold too!

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This is awesome. That round's going to be cold too!

CLE dropping a hint this evening

but the next trough and associated cyclogenesis will
already be approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday. This could be a very dynamic storm system for the middle of
next week as the main piece of arctic air described above finally
tries to drop southeast

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control and Mean for the weekend storm.  Thread worthy.

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

CLE dropping a hint this evening

but the next trough and associated cyclogenesis will
already be approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday. This could be a very dynamic storm system for the middle of
next week as the main piece of arctic air described above finally
tries to drop southeast

IMO it's the 2nd biggest storm in this years pattern.  The EPS showing some signs.

  The GEFS is catching the beginning of what has been the biggest storm in this years pattern that should land in the Feb 9th -11th time period.

 

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Mean for the weekend storm.  Thread worthy.

NWS Hastings mentioning a glaze of ice Friday night as the Arctic air comes in them decent chances of snow over the weekend. Our boys are in the semifinals of our conference tournament Friday night at Kearney High School vs. Ogallala. Fortunately Kearney is only 30 minutes away from us. Been a lot of tough travel conditions this winter so far, this weekend may add to it. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings mentioning a glaze of ice Friday night as the Arctic air comes in them decent chances of snow over the weekend. Our boys are in the semifinals of our conference tournament Friday night at Kearney High School vs. Ogallala. Fortunately Kearney is only 30 minutes away from us. Been a lot of tough travel conditions this winter so far, this weekend may add to it. 

Hope you don't get ice.  You may get some nice forcing along that front, hopefully snow.

[Andie]

DFW rain has stopped for now and will stay above freezing, however my cousin in Amarillo got some snow. Not unusual for them.  A lot of heavy rain in Houston. Another cousin was dodging deep water but Houston floods easily in areas.  
 

 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Andie said:

DFW rain has stopped for now and will stay above freezing, however my cousin in Amarillo got some snow. Not unusual for them.  A lot of heavy rain in Houston. Another cousin was dodging deep water but Houston floods easily in areas.  
 

 

Was Houston hit by a tornado today?

[Andie]

It hit Pasadena and Deer Park. Did some sizable damage. 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/article/houston-storm-tornado-gale-warning-17738110.php

My area in Sw Tarrant Co got about 1.3”.   Slow soaking rain too! Much needed. 

[hawkstwelve]

01z NBM for the weekend. A shift north vs it's 19z run.

[jaster220]

55 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

CLE dropping a hint this evening

but the next trough and associated cyclogenesis will
already be approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday. This could be a very dynamic storm system for the middle of
next week as the main piece of arctic air described above finally
tries to drop southeast

Man, just using "CPC map recognition" tools tells me this has BLIZ potential written all over it! MBN temps in place (dk blue), MBN risk spreading east after the 3rd (light blue), and a sig risk of Hvy SN right smack in the middle (purple). Could envision a more W to E GHD-level event with this set-up.  

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS with almost the exact same axis of heavier snow that the 18z run showed.

[Hawkeye]

00z GDPS (Canadian)

[bud2380]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z GDPS (Canadian)

I can’t believe I’m going to miss the best snowstorm of the year for Iowa. Just my luck. And for the first time all year Minnesota is going to miss out, just because that’s where I’ll be. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z UKMET with a shift north vs 12z.

I'd say it's fairly likely that a relatively narrow band of heavy snow will move somewhere through the Central/Northern Plains. At this point it just depends on where it sets up which models probably won't have nailed down until Friday, at the earliest. Interesting note would be it seems that most deterministic models are on the northern side of their respective ensembles. So it wouldn't surprised me to see a trend south over the next few days, however large or small.

[Hawkeye]

If this system misses north, I'm ready for spring.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Northward ho!! Looks like I’ll still be stuck at 6.5” for the winter after this weekend.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS would put FSD in the top six snowiest winters of all time, with almost all of February/March/April still to go.

Too bad it's the GFS...

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro... kinda hits its weakest point over eastern Iowa.  I hope the ratio is good.

[Clinton]

0z Euro wants to ice me on the 31st.   The good news is it has 156 hrs to change it's mind.  This run breaks the storm into 2 pieces, I sure would like to see it move through as 1 storm.

[Grizzcoat]

 GEFS 00Z and 06Z for the weekend are getting more South by the run--

[westMJim]

Good morning!  As has been the case so far this month yesterday was yet another cloudy and above average temperature day. While areas east and south of Grand Rapids seen sun here in GR it was just a cloudy day. The official H/L yesterday was 33/29 there was a reported 0.01” of precipitation of that 0.2” of snow fall and as stated no sunshine. At GRR they reported 1” of snow on the ground at 7AM here at my house that was less at around .25” of snow on the ground. The overnight low both here and at GRR was 30 and at GRR they are now reporting light snow falling here very light snow has just started. For today the average H/L is 30/17 the record high of 66 was set in 1950 and the record low of -14 was set in 1961 the record snow fall of 8.4” fell in 1964. With 6 more days to go the current mean for January at Grand Rapids is 34.1 at Lansing 34.7 at Muskegon 36.6 and at Holland 35.6. We will have to see how much the means fall with the cold coming in for the weekend and early next week but at the current time all locations are at or near record warm means. After the cool down they should still all be in the top ten or better.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

I responded to a post from @sumweatherdudeI think last week and commented on my worry of a stout SER the EPS was suggesting.  Well, I'm glad to see that it is fading quickly as the EURO OP/EPS are NOT heading into a very deep -PNA, but instead,  reversing course as we head into early FEB.  This is about a good of a signal for the S Plains/MW and into the OHV.  As I said before, the pattern is ripe and loaded with multiple chances for winter storms as the late JAN SnowBlitz rolls on!

 

The global models are in rather strong agreement that the Week 2 pattern suggests a neutral PNA & EPO keeping enough flow out of the NW and storms to track more E > W.

 

 

 

0z GEFS...the next couple weeks looking good for many on here...

 

0z CMCE...

[chescowxman]

We could see between 0.75" and 1.00" of rain today across the county with more in Southeast Chester County. We dry out and stay above normal through the weekend with our next chance of rain later Sunday night. There are signs of a cold and possibly stormy start to February.

The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1967. Record low is 2 below zero from 1935. Daily precipitation record is 2.54" and the daily snow record is the same day in 1905 as 25.4" of snow was recorded bringing the 2 day storm total to 29.0" of snow. That blizzard was the 3rd largest snowstorm in Chester County history behind only the 45.3" in the February 1899 blizzard and the 38.0" from the December 1909 storm. The 1996 blizzard is #4 on the list at 28.9" of snow.

[Bryan1117]

45 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Missed to the north, missed again to the south… why not have this one miss us in Omaha to the north again? Nothing like seeing our peeps in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri nearly top our two-year snowfall total in one storm. This lousy weather pattern looks to deliver more pain, and then add insult to injury with more cold and dry arctic air.

[CentralNebWeather]

55 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Missed to the north, missed again to the south… why not have this one miss us in Omaha to the north again? Nothing like seeing our peeps in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri nearly top our two-year snowfall total in one storm. This lousy weather pattern looks to deliver more pain, and then add insult to injury with more cold and dry arctic air.

I just can't believe with the cold coming down that this wouldn't track a little farther south.  Let's see if that occurs in the next couple days of runs.  Expect the unexpected this winter.

[Black Hole]

After completely busting for snow with the last storm in Tulsa, I had 0" at my house, it doesn't look like we will have to wait long to be let down again...err have another storm to track. 

Models showing an ice threat here early next week as arctic air spills south with some overrunning precip. 

[Black Hole]

This is typically a good winter weather pattern for here, at least on the large scale. Always comes down to the small scale details though. 

[MIKEKC]

The current storm is a good start to what hopefully will be a good late Jan. through Feb. winter pattern. Need that cold air in the pattern, looks like it just might do that.

 

Start model watching........NOW!

Go FEB.!!

[Tom]

12z RDPS...big hit...I think its time for a storm thread...

[bud2380]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z RDPS...big hit...I think its time for a storm thread...

I started a thread for the weekend system, I forgot to date it, so Tom if you wouldn't mind adding that and pinning it.  Thanks.  

[Hawkeye]

The extended is iffy, according to the op model runs.  The GFS and GDPS are northern stream dominant, which means the western energy is suppressed and strung out.  The Euro is trying to eject the western energy a bit more intact (last night's 00z run), but it's also struggling to not string it out into suppressed, weak crap.

[Tom]

Big Dog to close out JAN???  Is there a repeat scenario to our current storm BUT this time with colder air in place?

 

[tStacsh]

nothing major, but should add up if it stays cold

 

  IT'S POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME   AFFECTED BY LOCALIZED HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND   EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS. LATEST HRRR IS EVEN   SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESO-LOW COMING ONSHORE AROUND   HOLLAND AND CONTINUING TOWARD AZO. ALSO SOME IDEA SHOWN OF MORE   INTENSE BANDS SPREADING WELL EASTWARD ALONG I-94/I-80.     --FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT FRIDAY--  

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM   THE NORTHWEST AND DRIVES A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY   FRIDAY. LAKE SNOWS SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN THE   SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE   ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF HOLLAND. THEN AS WINDS VEER WITH THE   FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK FOR A COMBO SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TO   IMPACT A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS SNOWSHOWERS SPREAD FARTHER   INLAND. THIS IS PROBABLY A 1-2" EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT   LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (2-5"?) FOR HOLLAND/GRR NORTHWARD.     --ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SNOW ARRIVING SATURDAY--    

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS   NEARBY WITH 100-130 KT H2 JET RIDING ALONG IT. MODELS ARE   DEVELOPING A RELATIVELY NARROW AREA OF SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY   NIGHT WHICH MOVES FROM IOWA TO SRN LWR MI... JUST NORTH OF THE SFC   BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER JETLET. THIS MAY BE   ANOTHER 1-3" (POSSIBLY HIGHER) TYPE OF EVENT-- AND THERE'S   EVEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AROUND TUE-WED OF NEXT   WEEK. THE PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE, AS IT SHOULD   BE IN LATE JANUARY.  

 

 

[Bryan1117]

18 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Northward ho!! Looks like I’ll still be stuck at 6.5” for the winter after this weekend.

It’s just beyond maddening at this point… Winter is quickly becoming my most hated season around here. Dry and cold weather is misery.

[jaster220]

18z NAM and RGEM bring a slug of SN across SMI tomorrow. I think it's that N Stream energy getting absorbed into the EC storm acting as a clipper of sorts here.

[jaster220]

It's like somebody somewhere in the wx control dept flipped a switch, lol. Remember that scene in Natl Lampoon's Christmas Vacation film where Chevy Chase is beyond frustration because another family member keeps going into the garage and turning the switch off every time he tries to light up his house decorations?? It's like that here in DTW-land, but in a good way, lol

 

[Thunder98]