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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton
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While I've been focused on the immediate headliner, the GFS has been surprisingly consistent for 4 runs with another snow maker

 

23-01-24 18z GFS Surf h108.gif

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC has their antennae up for the Wk2 threat:

 

23-01-24 CPC Hazards d8-14.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This is awesome. That round's going to be cold too!

CLE dropping a hint this evening

but the next trough and associated cyclogenesis will
already be approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday. This could be a very dynamic storm system for the middle of
next week as the main piece of arctic air described above finally
tries to drop southeast
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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

CLE dropping a hint this evening

but the next trough and associated cyclogenesis will
already be approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday. This could be a very dynamic storm system for the middle of
next week as the main piece of arctic air described above finally
tries to drop southeast

IMO it's the 2nd biggest storm in this years pattern.  The EPS showing some signs.

1675339200-p9gutUcig1w.png

  The GEFS is catching the beginning of what has been the biggest storm in this years pattern that should land in the Feb 9th -11th time period.

1675944000-oBRz3ZsiNsE.png

 

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Mean for the weekend storm.  Thread worthy.

1675101600-YJCFq0T3Ius.png

1675101600-JgYQ07zNutU.png

NWS Hastings mentioning a glaze of ice Friday night as the Arctic air comes in them decent chances of snow over the weekend. Our boys are in the semifinals of our conference tournament Friday night at Kearney High School vs. Ogallala. Fortunately Kearney is only 30 minutes away from us. Been a lot of tough travel conditions this winter so far, this weekend may add to it. 

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2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings mentioning a glaze of ice Friday night as the Arctic air comes in them decent chances of snow over the weekend. Our boys are in the semifinals of our conference tournament Friday night at Kearney High School vs. Ogallala. Fortunately Kearney is only 30 minutes away from us. Been a lot of tough travel conditions this winter so far, this weekend may add to it. 

Hope you don't get ice.  You may get some nice forcing along that front, hopefully snow.

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DFW rain has stopped for now and will stay above freezing, however my cousin in Amarillo got some snow. Not unusual for them.  A lot of heavy rain in Houston. Another cousin was dodging deep water but Houston floods easily in areas.  
 

 

F2BDBDCC-1761-451C-8A5A-47932342F9A9.jpeg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 minutes ago, Andie said:

DFW rain has stopped for now and will stay above freezing, however my cousin in Amarillo got some snow. Not unusual for them.  A lot of heavy rain in Houston. Another cousin was dodging deep water but Houston floods easily in areas.  
 

 

F2BDBDCC-1761-451C-8A5A-47932342F9A9.jpeg

Was Houston hit by a tornado today?

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It hit Pasadena and Deer Park. Did some sizable damage. 


https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/article/houston-storm-tornado-gale-warning-17738110.php

My area in Sw Tarrant Co got about 1.3”.   Slow soaking rain too! Much needed. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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55 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

CLE dropping a hint this evening

but the next trough and associated cyclogenesis will
already be approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday. This could be a very dynamic storm system for the middle of
next week as the main piece of arctic air described above finally
tries to drop southeast

Man, just using "CPC map recognition" tools tells me this has BLIZ potential written all over it! MBN temps in place (dk blue), MBN risk spreading east after the 3rd (light blue), and a sig risk of Hvy SN right smack in the middle (purple). Could envision a more W to E GHD-level event with this set-up.  

image.png.e28387a1605f1a141f81c6019ee0bfd5.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z UKMET with a shift north vs 12z.

I'd say it's fairly likely that a relatively narrow band of heavy snow will move somewhere through the Central/Northern Plains. At this point it just depends on where it sets up which models probably won't have nailed down until Friday, at the earliest. Interesting note would be it seems that most deterministic models are on the northern side of their respective ensembles. So it wouldn't surprised me to see a trend south over the next few days, however large or small.

trend-ukmet-2023012500-f126.sn10_acc-imp.us_nc.gif

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Good morning!  As has been the case so far this month yesterday was yet another cloudy and above average temperature day. While areas east and south of Grand Rapids seen sun here in GR it was just a cloudy day. The official H/L yesterday was 33/29 there was a reported 0.01” of precipitation of that 0.2” of snow fall and as stated no sunshine. At GRR they reported 1” of snow on the ground at 7AM here at my house that was less at around .25” of snow on the ground. The overnight low both here and at GRR was 30 and at GRR they are now reporting light snow falling here very light snow has just started. For today the average H/L is 30/17 the record high of 66 was set in 1950 and the record low of -14 was set in 1961 the record snow fall of 8.4” fell in 1964. With 6 more days to go the current mean for January at Grand Rapids is 34.1 at Lansing 34.7 at Muskegon 36.6 and at Holland 35.6. We will have to see how much the means fall with the cold coming in for the weekend and early next week but at the current time all locations are at or near record warm means. After the cool down they should still all be in the top ten or better.

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I responded to a post from @sumweatherdudeI think last week and commented on my worry of a stout SER the EPS was suggesting.  Well, I'm glad to see that it is fading quickly as the EURO OP/EPS are NOT heading into a very deep -PNA, but instead,  reversing course as we head into early FEB.  This is about a good of a signal for the S Plains/MW and into the OHV.  As I said before, the pattern is ripe and loaded with multiple chances for winter storms as the late JAN SnowBlitz rolls on!

image.png

 

The global models are in rather strong agreement that the Week 2 pattern suggests a neutral PNA & EPO keeping enough flow out of the NW and storms to track more E > W.

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

0z GEFS...the next couple weeks looking good for many on here...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

0z CMCE...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

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We could see between 0.75" and 1.00" of rain today across the county with more in Southeast Chester County. We dry out and stay above normal through the weekend with our next chance of rain later Sunday night. There are signs of a cold and possibly stormy start to February.
The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1967. Record low is 2 below zero from 1935. Daily precipitation record is 2.54" and the daily snow record is the same day in 1905 as 25.4" of snow was recorded bringing the 2 day storm total to 29.0" of snow. That blizzard was the 3rd largest snowstorm in Chester County history behind only the 45.3" in the February 1899 blizzard and the 38.0" from the December 1909 storm. The 1996 blizzard is #4 on the list at 28.9" of snow.
image.png.de97bb4b948d26d72d156138a401af5f.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics shared here is specifically for the climate of Western Chester County PA. it represents the actual non-adjusted NWS COOP and spotter data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments made to any of the analytics.  Understanding that NOAA has deemed it appropriate to apply post observation cooling adjustments to the earlier 20th century raw data reported by the NWS Coop observers.  Climate change is of course real and natural....but so far here in Chester County PA we can only prove any warming or cooling has been strictly cyclical in nature.

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.1" to date) - 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

A clear minded source for factual climate data without any post observation adjustments. Only climate facts but never climate a alarmist. Our climate will always be changing we view this as a natural cycle of warming than cooling - rinse and repeat.   Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

NWS Trained Observer   image.png.c611f1f0b6407e819c29024d2b740944.png

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45 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

snku_024h-imp.us_nc.png

Missed to the north, missed again to the south… why not have this one miss us in Omaha to the north again? Nothing like seeing our peeps in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri nearly top our two-year snowfall total in one storm. This lousy weather pattern looks to deliver more pain, and then add insult to injury with more cold and dry arctic air.

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55 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Missed to the north, missed again to the south… why not have this one miss us in Omaha to the north again? Nothing like seeing our peeps in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri nearly top our two-year snowfall total in one storm. This lousy weather pattern looks to deliver more pain, and then add insult to injury with more cold and dry arctic air.

I just can't believe with the cold coming down that this wouldn't track a little farther south.  Let's see if that occurs in the next couple days of runs.  Expect the unexpected this winter.

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The extended is iffy, according to the op model runs.  The GFS and GDPS are northern stream dominant, which means the western energy is suppressed and strung out.  The Euro is trying to eject the western energy a bit more intact (last night's 00z run), but it's also struggling to not string it out into suppressed, weak crap.

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season snowfall: 14.3"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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nothing major, but should add up if it stays cold

 

  IT'S POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME   AFFECTED BY LOCALIZED HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND   EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS. LATEST HRRR IS EVEN   SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESO-LOW COMING ONSHORE AROUND   HOLLAND AND CONTINUING TOWARD AZO. ALSO SOME IDEA SHOWN OF MORE   INTENSE BANDS SPREADING WELL EASTWARD ALONG I-94/I-80.     --FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT FRIDAY--  

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM   THE NORTHWEST AND DRIVES A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY   FRIDAY. LAKE SNOWS SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN THE   SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE   ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF HOLLAND. THEN AS WINDS VEER WITH THE   FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK FOR A COMBO SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED EVENT TO   IMPACT A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS SNOWSHOWERS SPREAD FARTHER   INLAND. THIS IS PROBABLY A 1-2" EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT   LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (2-5"?) FOR HOLLAND/GRR NORTHWARD.     --ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SNOW ARRIVING SATURDAY--    

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS   NEARBY WITH 100-130 KT H2 JET RIDING ALONG IT. MODELS ARE   DEVELOPING A RELATIVELY NARROW AREA OF SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY   NIGHT WHICH MOVES FROM IOWA TO SRN LWR MI... JUST NORTH OF THE SFC   BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER JETLET. THIS MAY BE   ANOTHER 1-3" (POSSIBLY HIGHER) TYPE OF EVENT-- AND THERE'S   EVEN ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AROUND TUE-WED OF NEXT   WEEK. THE PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE, AS IT SHOULD   BE IN LATE JANUARY.  

 

 

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18z NAM and RGEM bring a slug of SN across SMI tomorrow. I think it's that N Stream energy getting absorbed into the EC storm acting as a clipper of sorts here.

image.png.eac5b599cfa40be799e6046f915d6760.png

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's like somebody somewhere in the wx control dept flipped a switch, lol. Remember that scene in Natl Lampoon's Christmas Vacation film where Chevy Chase is beyond frustration because another family member keeps going into the garage and turning the switch off every time he tries to light up his house decorations?? It's like that here in DTW-land, but in a good way, lol

 

23-01-25 6 pm 5-day Grid Icons.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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