January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

Looks interesting:

 

 

 

 

[MIKEKC]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Good to see the Euro showing the storm on the 12th well today.  Hopefully we will see that Hudson Bay Block flex its muscle and push down a little more cold air. 

 MJO will be in phase 8 very soon and then into 1 and 2.  I expect the models to start showing the mid month cold in the next few days.  The JMA was the last hold out on going into phase 8 and 1, it has joined the party also.

 

Let's go! Winter's return....

 

The system potential Friday night into Saturday fits the LRC, as we had the big storm Nov. 10th here in KC in cycle 1, followed by a repeat of that storm earlier this week in cycle two that produced 1-2 inches of rain in KC. Our first snow was Nov. 13th-14th,(southern tips of KC had 2-3 inches of snow, I only had .5-1 inch) followed the storm on Nov. 10th, now that smaller storm is showing up on today's data, let's see what happens with that. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Looks interesting:

 

 

 

 

It's just a couple images made by the most reliable wx source. I see a 39F Sunday in my grid. White RN incoming

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Let's go! Winter's return....

 

The system potential Friday night into Saturday fits the LRC, as we had the big storm Nov. 10th here in KC in cycle 1, followed by a repeat of that storm earlier this week in cycle two that produced 1-2 inches of rain in KC. Our first snow was Nov. 13th-14th,(southern tips of KC had 2-3 inches of snow, I only had .5-1 inch) followed the storm on Nov. 10th, now that smaller storm is showing up on today's data, let's see what happens with that. 

Verbatim, that surface map looks like what JUST happened. OMA rainer. Sorry. Blocking? Not sure how much that has really been there for us this winter. Can't wait to spend ten days tracking my 2" of slop.

[Niko]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It's just a couple images made by the most reliable wx source. I see a 39F Sunday in my grid. White RN incoming

NOAA says no to accu-weather! Its dry w a north westerly flow:

LONG TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Outside of a potential glance Sunday across southern areas from the
remnants of the atmospheric river event over the West Coast (which
may bring some light snow showers at best), dry weather looks to
prevail for the bulk of the long term period with broad northwest
flow in place and a stable atmospheric column in place. Temps will
be near to a few degrees above normal during the period.

 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GFS is off it's a rocker -- has nearly 1' of snow for C.IA Saturday.

NWS DMX not buying in---

The next weather system to impact Iowa arrives Friday night and into
Saturday as an upper low moves across Iowa and the surface low
translates east across Missouri. Moisture availability into Iowa is
the big question with a large area of high pressure situated just to
the north and the primary Gulf moisture feed being cutoff to the
south. The forecast still has light snow into central and southern
Iowa but the deeper moisture likely will be south. Several
deterministic 12z models runs including the ECMWF and NAM, are
keeping Iowa mostly dry and ensembles are trending that way. The
deterministic GFS is much more robust but it is also much further
north with all base fields. Considering the high pressure to the
north, the southern solutions are more plausible.

[bud2380]

Go GFS! LOL

 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Apparently I'm shoveling millions of snowflakes as we attempt to dig out from the storm...

 

How much snow did you end up with total?

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Tough to say for sure with the wind, existing snowpack, removal, etc. but adding up the individual daily counts I'd say we got around 16 inches or so. FSD was officially at 13 inches through yesterday and I've added a little under 3 inches today.

Impressive!  Is this one of the top snowstorms you've experienced?

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GEFS did come around from previous runs from much of nothing to a mean of around 2" (something DMX AFD said was trending NOT this way-- so we shall see)

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Sigh…

[Clinton]

Lets just say the 18z GFS and 18z Euro are not the same.  One or both of them will be way off and we are talking less than 90hrs.

18z Euro

18z GFS

[Iceresistance]

This January may be similar to January 2021. 

[gabel23]

45 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. 16 inches from one storm is definitely the top. I've had 2 feet fall in the PNW but it was from storms over the course of a couple weeks, not days.

It's been pretty surreal. I mean, our neighborhood looks like it belongs in the mountains. A lot of the snow banks and drifts are huge.

Wow that’s impressive! Snow depth around 20” give or take?! You guys have had an amazing winter so far.

[clintbeed1993]

Share some with the rest of us poor saps down here please. This winter has been basically identical to last year so far. Absolutely zilch in the snow department 

[Grizzcoat]

Impressive snow totals from Duluth,MN for DEC 22'-- all time record.  Might the all time record of 135 in 95'96' go down??? Well on the pace....

 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. 16 inches from one storm is definitely the top. I've had 2 feet fall in the PNW but it was from storms over the course of a couple weeks, not days.

It's been pretty surreal. I mean, our neighborhood looks like it belongs in the mountains. A lot of the snow banks and drifts are huge.

What a way for you to enjoy a legit Winter in the Upper MW...those piles and "tunnels" remind me of the good ol' days when we actually had Winter show up for more than just a few weeks.  Ahh, the Winter of '13-14' comes to mind!

[Tom]

Overnight runs of the system showing up late next week are looking better on the GEFS/EPS as there are more members indicating a formidable system that incorporates arctic air into the pattern.  This should be our next storm to track and I think by the weekend a thread will be necessary.

0z EC...

 

Where this storm tracks after it departs our Sub will be important for a couple of reasons: #1) Does it bomb out off EC and track up into the NewFoundland region?  #2) Does it Block up the pattern over Eastern Canada/Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay?  If so, this will impact the storm track post 15th as the storm parade shall continue to pound the West and eventually eject energy out into the Plains. 

In recent days, the GFS Op runs are starting to show a bit more cold air trying to infiltrate into the pattern as we head into the 2nd half of JAN.  

06z GEFS...the 0z GFS Op run is a weenie run for the Lower Lakes...

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday was yet another well above average day with the official H/L at Grand Rapids of 43/34. That makes 7 days in a row of well above average temperatures. There was 0.09” of rain fall yesterday and no snow fall. There is no snow on the ground (only left over parking lot and end of driveway piles) in fact it looks more like March than January. There was no official reported sunshine yesterday but the sun did shine here in MBY for a short time. It stay above 32 once again overnight and the low here in my yard was 34. There was light snow reported at GRR with a reading of 33 but here in my yard it was light rain and I now have a reading of 36. The next week looks to continue the mild trend we have seen for the past week now.

 

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Overnight runs of the system showing up late next week are looking better on the GEFS/EPS as there are more members indicating a formidable system that incorporates arctic air into the pattern.  This should be our next storm to track and I think by the weekend a thread will be necessary.

0z EC...

 

Where this storm tracks after it departs our Sub will be important for a couple of reasons: #1) Does it bomb out off EC and track up into the NewFoundland region?  #2) Does it Block up the pattern over Eastern Canada/Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay?  If so, this will impact the storm track post 15th as the storm parade shall continue to pound the West and eventually eject energy out into the Plains. 

In recent days, the GFS Op runs are starting to show a bit more cold air trying to infiltrate into the pattern as we head into the 2nd half of JAN.  

06z GEFS...the 0z GFS Op run is a weenie run for the Lower Lakes...

A little behind schedule but this would match up with the Nov. 15th to Nov. 17th storm. We had a major trough move thru the central plains and it brought the first snows to many on the forum. We had a major temp change in our area and dropped 30 degrees below average. Now, at that time both NAO and AO were neutral. It will be interesting to watch how it fairs this time around. 

[chescowxman]

Through yesterday the month is running almost 18 degrees above normal! Today will start the trend back to cooler although we will still be a good 16 degrees above normal for the day. Overall temps for the next couple of weeks look normal to a few degrees above normal for mid January. However, even normal January temps can result in wintry events. While there is a small chance for some snow around Sunday evening....I am not at all enthused about that or any other snow chances over the next week to 10 days...but as we know forecasting is far from an exact science!

The record high for today is 62 degrees set in 1950. The record low is 7 degrees below zero from 1904. The record rain is the 1.56" that fell in 1934. The daily snow record is the 3.6" that fell today in 2003.

[tStacsh]

NoCal is going to be under feet of rain and the mountains 20 feet of snow in the next 10 days.  Crazy.  

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

NoCal is going to be under feet of rain and the mountains 20 feet of snow in the next 10 days.  Crazy.  

Trip to Lake Tahoe???

[tStacsh]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Trip to Lake Tahoe???

That'd be nice.  Need to get out west again someday.  Next trip is to the Outer Banks, NC though.  

[chescowxman]

Since some folks are worried about having a couple of the least snowy winters in history within the last few years....I thought it a good time to again revisit how incredibly and unusually snowy we have been in this century (since 2000). I wonder if the younger folks that follow the weather will think that our recent snowy cycle is actually typical of this area? As the analysis I have posted here shows we have always experience very variable year to year snow seasons. But as you can see from below and I suspect we are due for some of the least snowy winters on record. Since 2000 we have experience 6 of our top 20 snowiest winters; conversely during that same time frame we have only had 3 of our least snowy winters. 

[westMJim]

 

Light snow is falling here but, it is too light and too warm to mean much. At this time it is 36 here.

[westMJim]

Not much ice on any of the Great Lakes as only 3.5% of the lakes are ice covered and that is in the west end of Lake Erie and in the protected bay of Huron and Michigan. In fact it looks like the surface temperatures on Lake Michigan are mostly in the low 40's yet.
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ice.html

[tStacsh]

EURO is super dry all through next week. 

[Niko]

11 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

EURO is super dry all through next week. 

Yep....if not beyond that. There is also no arctic air in sight as well. I am getting flashbacks of 2011-12......Hope I am wrong.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yep....if not beyond that. There is also no arctic air in sight as well. I am getting flashbacks of 2011-12......Hope I am wrong.

West coast bomb storm after storm tends to pump ridges in the east.  Tough to get winter in that scenario.  Stil, we could see some storms, but no signs of winter staying power.  

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

West coast bomb storm after storm tends to pump ridges in the east.  Tough to get winter in that scenario.  Stil, we could see some storms, but no signs of winter staying power.  

Lets hope for the best. 

Btw: currently 42F and light rain. My area was suppose to be in the 30s today w snowshowers. So much for that.....I have a strong feeling that this will be a mild Winter. 

[tStacsh]

22 minutes ago, Niko said:

Lets hope for the best. 

Btw: currently 42F and light rain. My area was suppose to be in the 30s today w snowshowers. So much for that.....I have a strong feeling that this will be a mild Winter. 

Would be nice to get this pattern in March/April instead of January.  Been years since an active thunderstorm spring season in Michigan. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

My 2022 stats from my weather station IMBY.

Avg low: 39.8

Normal low: 42.1

Dep: -2.3

Coldest daily low: -15.2 (12/22)   Coldest daily high: -3.3 (12/22)

 

Avg high: 63.9

Normal high: 62.8

Dep: +1.1

Warmest daily low: 78.3 (6/13)   Warmest daily high: 101.5 (8/6)

 

Total precipitation: 23.12"

Normal precipitation: 31.86"

Dep: -8.74"

Wettest day: 1.42" (6/15)

Wettest month: 4.93" (May)

Snowfall: 13.5"

Departure: -13.6"

Highest daily snowfall: 3.5" (1/14)   Highest monthly snowfall: 6.5" (January)

 

9 daily record highs

2 daily record lows

1 daily minimum max temp

4 daily maximum min temps

11 severe tstorm watches

2 tornado watches

5 severe tstorm warnings

1 flood watch

10 heat advisories

1 excessive heat warning

6 wind advisories

2 high wind warnings

8 red flag warnings

7 winter weather advisories

2 winter storm warnings

3 wind chill advisories

1 wind chill warning

1 freeze warning

2 dense fog advisories

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

What a way for you to enjoy a legit Winter in the Upper MW...those piles and "tunnels" remind me of the good ol' days when we actually had Winter show up for more than just a few days.  Ahh, the Winter of '13-14' comes to mind!

Fixed, lol

This reminds me of some night playing Poker with the guys, and you have like the coldest hands all night long. All you do is fold, or occasionally donate to the guy getting all the hot hands. But mostly you don't even want to be in the game.. 

[jaster220]

Yeah, @Stacsh has had it rough in the snow dept. We should all feel horrible for him and his locale there in Grand Rapids. Can't imagine the tragedy of an all-time #2 year. Oh the travesty!!

 

 

[jaster220]

Two Michigan cities among snowiest in U.S. over last 30 years, Old Farmer’s Almanac says (msn.com)

[Niko]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Would be nice to get this pattern in March/April instead of January.  Been years since an active thunderstorm spring season in Michigan. 

I cant even remember when the last time was when Detroit (or even up here in the Macomb County) had a severe t'stm. It has certainly been awhile. I think back in June of 2022, mby had a strong storm that produce 50mph and small hail, but that was about it for the rest of the summer season.

 

[Niko]

@jaster220So much for our snowshowers today, instead we are getting rainshowers w/ temps in the 30s tanite.

Btw: I really hope this extended outlook is false because by mid month, it has us in the 40s w/ rain. Still plenty of time for changes, but seeing that type of weather almost in the hard of winter is quite disappointing. Hoping that changes as we have plenty of winter left anyway. I believe that is the storm @Clinton has been talking about in regards to the LRC.

[Niko]

23 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. 16 inches from one storm is definitely the top. I've had 2 feet fall in the PNW but it was from storms over the course of a couple weeks, not days.

It's been pretty surreal. I mean, our neighborhood looks like it belongs in the mountains. A lot of the snow banks and drifts are huge.

That is very impressive. Reminds me of what a major Nor'easter does in the big cities on the east coast.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

@jaster220So much for our snowshowers today, instead we are getting rainshowers w/ temps in the 30s tanite.

Btw: I really hope this extended outlook is false because by mid month, it has us in the 40s w/ rain. Still plenty of time for changes, but seeing that type of weather almost in the hard of winter is quite disappointing. Hoping that changes as we have plenty of winter left anyway. I believe that is the storm @Clinton has been talking about in regards to the LRC.

The storm for the 12th/13th is showing up on all the models, with a variety of different solutions.  The strength of the Hudson Bay high will determine how powerful the Winter side of the storm is and where the low will track.  I can't wait to see how this storm evolves because I believe it will be an impactful Winter storm for some just not sure who yet.  

When I wrote the the open for this thread, I noted that some patience would be required because it was evident that the first 2 weeks of the month would be warm, driven by a +EPO and the MJO coming through the warm phases of 5,6, and 7.  The MJO is entering phase 8 and headed towards a more amplified phase 1 with a negative AO and NAO.  Over the next few days I believe we'll see a gradual cooling trend with the models and I still believe as we get into week 3 the Artic air will begin to push in and set the stage for an exciting stretch of weather that should last well into February.  Waiting sucks especially in this part of Winter but imo it will be worth the wait.