January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GFS is off it's a rocker -- has nearly 1' of snow for C.IA Saturday.

NWS DMX not buying in---

The next weather system to impact Iowa arrives Friday night and into
Saturday as an upper low moves across Iowa and the surface low
translates east across Missouri. Moisture availability into Iowa is
the big question with a large area of high pressure situated just to
the north and the primary Gulf moisture feed being cutoff to the
south. The forecast still has light snow into central and southern
Iowa but the deeper moisture likely will be south. Several
deterministic 12z models runs including the ECMWF and NAM, are
keeping Iowa mostly dry and ensembles are trending that way. The
deterministic GFS is much more robust but it is also much further
north with all base fields. Considering the high pressure to the
north, the southern solutions are more plausible.

[bud2380]

Go GFS! LOL

 

[hawkstwelve]

Apparently I'm shoveling millions of snowflakes as we attempt to dig out from the storm...

 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Apparently I'm shoveling millions of snowflakes as we attempt to dig out from the storm...

 

How much snow did you end up with total?

[hawkstwelve]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much snow did you end up with total?

Tough to say for sure with the wind, existing snowpack, removal, etc. but adding up the individual daily counts I'd say we got around 16 inches or so. FSD was officially at 13 inches through yesterday and I've added a little under 3 inches today.

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Tough to say for sure with the wind, existing snowpack, removal, etc. but adding up the individual daily counts I'd say we got around 16 inches or so. FSD was officially at 13 inches through yesterday and I've added a little under 3 inches today.

Impressive!  Is this one of the top snowstorms you've experienced?

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GEFS did come around from previous runs from much of nothing to a mean of around 2" (something DMX AFD said was trending NOT this way-- so we shall see)

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Sigh…

[Clinton]

Lets just say the 18z GFS and 18z Euro are not the same.  One or both of them will be way off and we are talking less than 90hrs.

18z Euro

18z GFS

[Iceresistance]

This January may be similar to January 2021. 

[hawkstwelve]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Impressive!  Is this one of the top snowstorms you've experienced?

Oh yeah. 16 inches from one storm is definitely the top. I've had 2 feet fall in the PNW but it was from storms over the course of a couple weeks, not days.

It's been pretty surreal. I mean, our neighborhood looks like it belongs in the mountains. A lot of the snow banks and drifts are huge.

[gabel23]

45 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. 16 inches from one storm is definitely the top. I've had 2 feet fall in the PNW but it was from storms over the course of a couple weeks, not days.

It's been pretty surreal. I mean, our neighborhood looks like it belongs in the mountains. A lot of the snow banks and drifts are huge.

Wow that’s impressive! Snow depth around 20” give or take?! You guys have had an amazing winter so far.

[clintbeed1993]

Share some with the rest of us poor saps down here please. This winter has been basically identical to last year so far. Absolutely zilch in the snow department 

[Grizzcoat]

Impressive snow totals from Duluth,MN for DEC 22'-- all time record.  Might the all time record of 135 in 95'96' go down??? Well on the pace....

 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. 16 inches from one storm is definitely the top. I've had 2 feet fall in the PNW but it was from storms over the course of a couple weeks, not days.

It's been pretty surreal. I mean, our neighborhood looks like it belongs in the mountains. A lot of the snow banks and drifts are huge.

What a way for you to enjoy a legit Winter in the Upper MW...those piles and "tunnels" remind me of the good ol' days when we actually had Winter show up for more than just a few weeks.  Ahh, the Winter of '13-14' comes to mind!

[Tom]

Overnight runs of the system showing up late next week are looking better on the GEFS/EPS as there are more members indicating a formidable system that incorporates arctic air into the pattern.  This should be our next storm to track and I think by the weekend a thread will be necessary.

0z EC...

 

Where this storm tracks after it departs our Sub will be important for a couple of reasons: #1) Does it bomb out off EC and track up into the NewFoundland region?  #2) Does it Block up the pattern over Eastern Canada/Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay?  If so, this will impact the storm track post 15th as the storm parade shall continue to pound the West and eventually eject energy out into the Plains. 

In recent days, the GFS Op runs are starting to show a bit more cold air trying to infiltrate into the pattern as we head into the 2nd half of JAN.  

06z GEFS...the 0z GFS Op run is a weenie run for the Lower Lakes...

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday was yet another well above average day with the official H/L at Grand Rapids of 43/34. That makes 7 days in a row of well above average temperatures. There was 0.09” of rain fall yesterday and no snow fall. There is no snow on the ground (only left over parking lot and end of driveway piles) in fact it looks more like March than January. There was no official reported sunshine yesterday but the sun did shine here in MBY for a short time. It stay above 32 once again overnight and the low here in my yard was 34. There was light snow reported at GRR with a reading of 33 but here in my yard it was light rain and I now have a reading of 36. The next week looks to continue the mild trend we have seen for the past week now.

 

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Overnight runs of the system showing up late next week are looking better on the GEFS/EPS as there are more members indicating a formidable system that incorporates arctic air into the pattern.  This should be our next storm to track and I think by the weekend a thread will be necessary.

0z EC...

 

Where this storm tracks after it departs our Sub will be important for a couple of reasons: #1) Does it bomb out off EC and track up into the NewFoundland region?  #2) Does it Block up the pattern over Eastern Canada/Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay?  If so, this will impact the storm track post 15th as the storm parade shall continue to pound the West and eventually eject energy out into the Plains. 

In recent days, the GFS Op runs are starting to show a bit more cold air trying to infiltrate into the pattern as we head into the 2nd half of JAN.  

06z GEFS...the 0z GFS Op run is a weenie run for the Lower Lakes...

A little behind schedule but this would match up with the Nov. 15th to Nov. 17th storm. We had a major trough move thru the central plains and it brought the first snows to many on the forum. We had a major temp change in our area and dropped 30 degrees below average. Now, at that time both NAO and AO were neutral. It will be interesting to watch how it fairs this time around. 

[chescowxman]

Through yesterday the month is running almost 18 degrees above normal! Today will start the trend back to cooler although we will still be a good 16 degrees above normal for the day. Overall temps for the next couple of weeks look normal to a few degrees above normal for mid January. However, even normal January temps can result in wintry events. While there is a small chance for some snow around Sunday evening....I am not at all enthused about that or any other snow chances over the next week to 10 days...but as we know forecasting is far from an exact science!

The record high for today is 62 degrees set in 1950. The record low is 7 degrees below zero from 1904. The record rain is the 1.56" that fell in 1934. The daily snow record is the 3.6" that fell today in 2003.

[tStacsh]

NoCal is going to be under feet of rain and the mountains 20 feet of snow in the next 10 days.  Crazy.  

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

NoCal is going to be under feet of rain and the mountains 20 feet of snow in the next 10 days.  Crazy.  

Trip to Lake Tahoe???

[tStacsh]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Trip to Lake Tahoe???

That'd be nice.  Need to get out west again someday.  Next trip is to the Outer Banks, NC though.  

[sumweatherdude]

Feel like I'm watching a pot waiting for it to boil. And we know how that goes.  Seriously considering whether I should just stop checking the weather for awhile.  Let the pot boil on its own.  The cold air is bottled up for the foreseeable future.  In KC, that means no winter weather.  Sigh . . . 

[hawkstwelve]

 

[chescowxman]

Since some folks are worried about having a couple of the least snowy winters in history within the last few years....I thought it a good time to again revisit how incredibly and unusually snowy we have been in this century (since 2000). I wonder if the younger folks that follow the weather will think that our recent snowy cycle is actually typical of this area? As the analysis I have posted here shows we have always experience very variable year to year snow seasons. But as you can see from below and I suspect we are due for some of the least snowy winters on record. Since 2000 we have experience 6 of our top 20 snowiest winters; conversely during that same time frame we have only had 3 of our least snowy winters. 

[westMJim]

 

Light snow is falling here but, it is too light and too warm to mean much. At this time it is 36 here.

[westMJim]

Not much ice on any of the Great Lakes as only 3.5% of the lakes are ice covered and that is in the west end of Lake Erie and in the protected bay of Huron and Michigan. In fact it looks like the surface temperatures on Lake Michigan are mostly in the low 40's yet.
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ice.html

[tStacsh]

EURO is super dry all through next week. 

[Niko]

11 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

EURO is super dry all through next week. 

Yep....if not beyond that. There is also no arctic air in sight as well. I am getting flashbacks of 2011-12......Hope I am wrong.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yep....if not beyond that. There is also no arctic air in sight as well. I am getting flashbacks of 2011-12......Hope I am wrong.

West coast bomb storm after storm tends to pump ridges in the east.  Tough to get winter in that scenario.  Stil, we could see some storms, but no signs of winter staying power.  

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

West coast bomb storm after storm tends to pump ridges in the east.  Tough to get winter in that scenario.  Stil, we could see some storms, but no signs of winter staying power.  

Lets hope for the best. 

Btw: currently 42F and light rain. My area was suppose to be in the 30s today w snowshowers. So much for that.....I have a strong feeling that this will be a mild Winter. 

[tStacsh]

22 minutes ago, Niko said:

Lets hope for the best. 

Btw: currently 42F and light rain. My area was suppose to be in the 30s today w snowshowers. So much for that.....I have a strong feeling that this will be a mild Winter. 

Would be nice to get this pattern in March/April instead of January.  Been years since an active thunderstorm spring season in Michigan. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

My 2022 stats from my weather station IMBY.

Avg low: 39.8

Normal low: 42.1

Dep: -2.3

Coldest daily low: -15.2 (12/22)   Coldest daily high: -3.3 (12/22)

 

Avg high: 63.9

Normal high: 62.8

Dep: +1.1

Warmest daily low: 78.3 (6/13)   Warmest daily high: 101.5 (8/6)

 

Total precipitation: 23.12"

Normal precipitation: 31.86"

Dep: -8.74"

Wettest day: 1.42" (6/15)

Wettest month: 4.93" (May)

Snowfall: 13.5"

Departure: -13.6"

Highest daily snowfall: 3.5" (1/14)   Highest monthly snowfall: 6.5" (January)

 

9 daily record highs

2 daily record lows

1 daily minimum max temp

4 daily maximum min temps

11 severe tstorm watches

2 tornado watches

5 severe tstorm warnings

1 flood watch

10 heat advisories

1 excessive heat warning

6 wind advisories

2 high wind warnings

8 red flag warnings

7 winter weather advisories

2 winter storm warnings

3 wind chill advisories

1 wind chill warning

1 freeze warning

2 dense fog advisories

[sumweatherdude]

 

 

 

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

What a way for you to enjoy a legit Winter in the Upper MW...those piles and "tunnels" remind me of the good ol' days when we actually had Winter show up for more than just a few days.  Ahh, the Winter of '13-14' comes to mind!

Fixed, lol

This reminds me of some night playing Poker with the guys, and you have like the coldest hands all night long. All you do is fold, or occasionally donate to the guy getting all the hot hands. But mostly you don't even want to be in the game.. 

[jaster220]

Yeah, @Stacsh has had it rough in the snow dept. We should all feel horrible for him and his locale there in Grand Rapids. Can't imagine the tragedy of an all-time #2 year. Oh the travesty!!

 

 

[jaster220]

Two Michigan cities among snowiest in U.S. over last 30 years, Old Farmer’s Almanac says (msn.com)

[Niko]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Would be nice to get this pattern in March/April instead of January.  Been years since an active thunderstorm spring season in Michigan. 

I cant even remember when the last time was when Detroit (or even up here in the Macomb County) had a severe t'stm. It has certainly been awhile. I think back in June of 2022, mby had a strong storm that produce 50mph and small hail, but that was about it for the rest of the summer season.

 

[Niko]

@jaster220So much for our snowshowers today, instead we are getting rainshowers w/ temps in the 30s tanite.

Btw: I really hope this extended outlook is false because by mid month, it has us in the 40s w/ rain. Still plenty of time for changes, but seeing that type of weather almost in the hard of winter is quite disappointing. Hoping that changes as we have plenty of winter left anyway. I believe that is the storm @Clinton has been talking about in regards to the LRC.

[Niko]

23 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh yeah. 16 inches from one storm is definitely the top. I've had 2 feet fall in the PNW but it was from storms over the course of a couple weeks, not days.

It's been pretty surreal. I mean, our neighborhood looks like it belongs in the mountains. A lot of the snow banks and drifts are huge.

That is very impressive. Reminds me of what a major Nor'easter does in the big cities on the east coast.

[hawkstwelve]

22 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Wow that’s impressive! Snow depth around 20” give or take?! You guys have had an amazing winter so far.

Finally got around to measuring in more spots and yeah the rough average is around 20-22" with some drifts much higher and 6-7 ft+ snow banks in spots.

It's definitely been a wild ride for our first winter here. Feels like we are getting the extremes out of the way the first year so the following years should hopefully feel a bit more tame in comparison.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

@jaster220So much for our snowshowers today, instead we are getting rainshowers w/ temps in the 30s tanite.

Btw: I really hope this extended outlook is false because by mid month, it has us in the 40s w/ rain. Still plenty of time for changes, but seeing that type of weather almost in the hard of winter is quite disappointing. Hoping that changes as we have plenty of winter left anyway. I believe that is the storm @Clinton has been talking about in regards to the LRC.

The storm for the 12th/13th is showing up on all the models, with a variety of different solutions.  The strength of the Hudson Bay high will determine how powerful the Winter side of the storm is and where the low will track.  I can't wait to see how this storm evolves because I believe it will be an impactful Winter storm for some just not sure who yet.  

When I wrote the the open for this thread, I noted that some patience would be required because it was evident that the first 2 weeks of the month would be warm, driven by a +EPO and the MJO coming through the warm phases of 5,6, and 7.  The MJO is entering phase 8 and headed towards a more amplified phase 1 with a negative AO and NAO.  Over the next few days I believe we'll see a gradual cooling trend with the models and I still believe as we get into week 3 the Artic air will begin to push in and set the stage for an exciting stretch of weather that should last well into February.  Waiting sucks especially in this part of Winter but imo it will be worth the wait.

[Tom]

It has been a cloudy stretch over here and I can't remember the last time I saw the sun for more than an hour.  I was spoiled with the sunshine back in AZ and coming back to Chi it really makes you appreciate that natural Vitamin D and energy from the Sun.  Hope to see some peaks of sun later this afternoon.  With the clouds hanging tough, the overnight temps have kept the means AN and will continue into next week.

[Tom]

@ClintonThe Euro Weeklies from last night are dialing in on the LRC's more notable storms/active SW Flow late JAN pattern and early FEB.  I'm not even going to post the FEB snow maps because they are just freakin' ridiculously snowy.  Another Back-Loaded Winter???  For many on here that may be the outcome (including MBY), Yes, but for those up north its going to be #endlesswinter well into Spring.  I just really hope that things begin to line up and the models start to digest the teleconnections or mother nature flips the switch on us!

 

 

 

@sumweatherdude, was it you or someone else who posted the Euro Weeklies 10mb zonal winds?  Anyway, the PV guru @judahcohen says his AI learning machine is showing a SSW event late JAN into FEB and coincides with the Euro Weeklies run last night.  I have learned from him that prior to a major disruption, it tends to warm up across the CONUS so we can very well be going through this stretch right now.

 

 

 

In similar fashion, the CFSv2 weeklies are in agreement as well that a strong SW Flow pattern evolves...I almost certain that @hawkstwelvewill cash in on another Big Dog later this month and into the MSP region.  I originally thought the pattern would press farther south by this time in JAN but that obviously is not happening.  

 

 

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yes, it did snow here in Grand Rapids yesterday. And for a while there was a trace of snow on the ground in MBY but that snow is now all melted. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 36/33 there was 0.09” of precipitation of that a trace was snow fall. There was no reported sunshine but there was a thin spot to the SW here at my house just before sunset. The temperature held around 33 for much of the overnight and at this current time it is 34 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 57 was set in 2008 and the record low of -12 was set in 1988. The largest snow fall of 11.0” was in 1918 in more recent times there was a snow fall of 7.6” in 2004. There looks like there could be some sunshine over the weekend with temperatures above average in the mid to upper 30’s for highs and mid to upper 20’s for lows. It has not fallen below 32 in the last 8 days.

 

[Clinton]

21 minutes ago, Tom said:

@ClintonThe Euro Weeklies from last night are dialing in on the LRC's more notable storms/active SW Flow late JAN pattern and early FEB.  I'm not even going to post the FEB snow maps because they are just freakin' ridiculously snowy.  Another Back-Loaded Winter???  For many on here that may be the outcome (including MBY), Yes, but for those up north its going to be #endlesswinter well into Spring.  I just really hope that things begin to line up and the models start to digest the teleconnections or mother nature flips the switch on us!

 

 

 

@sumweatherdude, was it you or someone else who posted the Euro Weeklies 10mb zonal winds?  Anyway, the PV guru @judahcohen says his AI learning machine is showing a SSW event late JAN into FEB and coincides with the Euro Weeklies run last night.  I have learned from him that prior to a major disruption, it tends to warm up across the CONUS so we can very well be going through this stretch right now.

 

 

 

In similar fashion, the CFSv2 weeklies are in agreement as well that a strong SW Flow pattern evolves...I almost certain that @hawkstwelvewill cash in on another Big Dog later this month and into the MSP region.  I originally thought the pattern would press farther south by this time in JAN but that obviously is not happening.  

 

 

It certainly makes since to me and fits my thinking.  The 2 biggest storms of this years LRC should show up in that time.

Jan31st -Feb 3rd

Feb 9th - Feb 11th

I also expect a long lasting Artic outbreak from late in week 3 through at least the first 3 weeks of February.  All the players and LR forecasting techniques point to that MJO, LRC, Cahirs Connection.

[Clinton]

As Tom mentioned the Euro Weeklies show a lot of action in late Jan into February.  The Control run of the weeklies is lining up with the MJO quite well.

[chescowxman]

We have picked up 0.15" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal. A few more light showers this morning before sun returns this PM. We should see our first freezing temperature of the year (since December 29th) by tomorrow morning. It has been an incredibly warm start to 2023. Temps should return to near normal this weekend and stay near there for at least the next week to 10 days. Most models still show a chance of some snow arriving on Sunday night and ending by the Monday AM commute. This has the potential to be the largest snow event of the season. Of course our biggest snow event so far has been 0.5"

The record high for today is 68.8 degrees set in 2007. The record low is 4 below zero from 1904. Record rain is the 1.30" that fell in 1962. Our record daily snow is the 5.5" that fell today in 1970.

[tStacsh]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, @Stacsh has had it rough in the snow dept. We should all feel horrible for him and his locale there in Grand Rapids. Can't imagine the tragedy of an all-time #2 year. Oh the travesty!!

 

 

It was great the 5 days it was on the ground this year.   Last year it didn't have staying power either.     What good is snow in the winter when it just melts in 2-3 days?   

[tStacsh]

Not the AFD you want to see in the middle of winter:

 

- LINGERING LIGHT PCPN TODAY -     TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING LATEST   RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 3KM NAM SUGGEST THAT LIGHT PCPN WILL LINGER   FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH A SFC/UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER OUR   REGION. PCPN WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS   AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVEN THAT FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR   AREA SHOW AN UNSATURATED DGZ.     ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WOULD BE ISOLATED. SFC   TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE IN THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE ATTM WITH JUST   WET CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY DURING THE EARLY MORNING   HRS AND MAY EVEN BUMP UP A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND DAYBREAK. GIVEN   THESE MARGINAL TEMPS WE THINK ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS AM   WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.     THE LIGHT LINGERING PCPN TODAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END   TONIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM   THE NW AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE   ATMOSPHERE.     - FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK -    

 

RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SFC/ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR WX WITH   PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL   AVG AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH   TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL FINALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED/THUR AFTER   THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.