January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[bud2380]

The Euro takes the golden path for eastern Iowa.  Except for there is no cold air in place, so we get a nice January rain storm instead.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The .7” of snow from the last storm has melted and we’re in the mid 40s today.

Saw that we gain ~40 minutes of daylight this month and can’t help to think of spring already.

[Andie]

Looks like spring here for a week.  
Would love to get rain though.  

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

Looks like spring here for a week.  
Would love to get rain though.  

It feels like Spring here in S MI also in terms of MI standards. It feels  balmy w readings that were in the 40s and 50s just recently, averaging well above normal. Now we are back in the 30s for highs, but still averaging AN. My average high is 32F, just to give ya an idea. We are backin the 40s for early net week and remain dry until midweek. Then, we see what Ma Nature brings.

[clintbeed1993]

The raging NINA is the problem. The SOI was on the verge of going negative in early December, had it done so we would have a much better winter going on right now. Really sad 

[OttumwaSnomow]

9 hours ago, james1976 said:

Quick trip down to Iowa. Way less snowcover down here lol. I'm kinda happy to see the sun though.

What snow cover?

[OKwx2k4]

Going to be hard to find winter down here, other than the 13-15th from the looks of things.

[WinterSquall23]

7 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Beautiful out here with the strikingly blue, sunny skies on the fresh snow covered landscape. Also had some very dense fog overnight that froze on trees to cover them in a layer of white. 

Looks like the Bellingham area in 2017. We had a good winter back then. Awesome!

[Andie]

I had read El Niño was trying to return. 
Even if we were neutral Texas would likely get some rain. 
But this Niña is relentless and rain just can’t manage to form.  

[Clinton]

The weeniest of weenie bands but tomorrow will feel like winter for a day.

[Clinton]

The 0z GFS is putting together a very strong storm next Thursday and Friday.  

[Clinton]

The GFS beginning to show some consistency with the storm for next week.  A nice little bowling ball rolling across the sub.

Even better trends showing up in the long range, as I have anticipated the pattern going cold during the 3rd week of January.  Sure looks like the GFS is catching on to the MJO moving into the cold phases.  The last 3 runs of the GFS

While it's a little messy at this range LRC followers will recognize the split flow with the cut-off low part of the pattern beginning to be sniffed out by the GFS.

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS beginning to show some consistency with the storm for next week.  A nice little bowling ball rolling across the sub.

Even better trends showing up in the long range, as I have anticipated the pattern going cold during the 3rd week of January.  Sure looks like the GFS is catching on to the MJO moving into the cold phases.  The last 3 runs of the GFS

While it's a little messy at this range LRC followers will recognize the split flow with the cut-off low part of the pattern beginning to be sniffed out by the GFS.

Big changes showing up around the 18th-20th across the NE PAC in both the EPS/GEFS that sets up a great pattern to "SEED" real arctic air into the lower 48 for the last 1/3rd of JAN.

[westMJim]

Good morning! Our mild mostly snowless start to January continues. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 35/31 there was a total of 0.14” of rain and melted snow. 0.6” of snow fall was officially reported. There were some cars with snow on them last night not sure where they were with that snow fell onto the cars. Here in MBY there was a trace of snow on the ground for the 2nd night in a row. There was no sunshine officially yesterday but once again there was a few minutes of thin clouds here that the sun could be seen thru. The temperature held around 32/31 all through the overnight and the current temperature in MBY is 32. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 63 was set in 2008 and the record low of -15 was set in 1988. The record snow fall amount of 5.4” was in 1962.

 

[westMJim]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Big changes showing up around the 18th-20th across the NE PAC in both the EPS/GEFS that sets up a great pattern to "SEED" real arctic air into the lower 48 for the last 1/3rd of JAN

There is very little ice on the Great Lakes and for that matter even the inland lakes so if there is a major arctic air flowing across the lakes there could once again be some big time lake events. We shall see.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There is very little ice on the Great Lakes and for that matter even the inland lakes so if there is a major arctic air flowing across the lakes there could once again be some big time lake events. We shall see.

Yup, the water temps are AN and I would expect to see the snow that does fall to stick around for a while bc a colder pattern should have legs into FEB.

[jaster220]

45 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yup, the water temps are AN and I would expect to see the snow that does fall to stick around for a while bc a colder pattern should have legs into FEB.

If I recall correctly, 11-12 was on the analog seasons lists. This feels like that except Jan of '12 was actually a pretty snowy month. This is just garbage though. If the cold is in and out like so far, this could challenge the "worst winters" list for our region at least. Look at the Philly poster's list of low snow years and you'll see 07-08. When we were getting the MSP treatment they were getting nada.

[kush61]

I've been watching next storm (Fleur)? appear/disappear/appear on the GFS for a week now. It targets my location on a Friday-13th on which dates Motorcycle Rally's are held in Port Dover, Ontario (32 miles due South of my location) similar to Sturgis, South Dakota just not at the same scale. The Main street will be shut down to vehicular traffic and venders are to set up but attendance may be affected by the weather. Next Friday 13th is in October.

This storm is computer forecast to become massive as it approaches the east coast.   

[Andie]

Send Rain 🌧🌧🌧

Next 2 weeks

Highs in 60’s 

Lows in 40’s 

No rain forecast. 

[Thunder98]

11 hours ago, Andie said:

I had read El Niño was trying to return. 
Even if we were neutral Texas would likely get some rain. 
But this Niña is relentless and rain just can’t manage to form.  

Its been Niño like in California with the parade of powerful storms for the past 2 weeks.

[OmahaSnowFan]

So the “garbage, absolute trash model” GFS shows a decent snowstorm, but the “king” Euro shows a rain only system….

I guess that means it’s going to rain right?

[chescowxman]

We are now into a stretch of near to slightly above normal temps for at least the next week. HIgh temps should average in the low to mid-40's - normal high temps are in the upper 30's and lows in the low to mid-20's. There still is a chance for some spots to pick up some measurable wet snow tomorrow night into Monday morning. Relative elevation will play a role in who sees any actual accumulation on non-paved surfaces. Most models are painting from 0.5" to at most 2.0" across the county. Incredibly for some this may be the largest snowfall so far this winter season. Here in East Nantmeal the most snow from one event has been the 0.5" on 12/23.

The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1907. The record low was set just 9 years ago with a 1.6 degree below zero reading. The record precipitation record is the 2.12" of water equivalent in 1996. That is also the record snow for today with the 22.8" that fell during day one of our 5th largest all-time snowstorm here in Chester County. When the storm ended on the 8th we had a 28.9" storm total.

[Niko]

NOAA:

The next chance for
widespread precipitation will be centered late Thursday into Friday
once a midweek Pacific wave comes onshore and aids in the development
of low pressure. Plenty of uncertainties still exist at this time
regarding the longwave pattern (progressive vs. possible cut-off low)
and thermal profile over SE MI, which will have implications on
p-types.

 

Lets see how this plays out, but if I were to guess, w/ the way this winter has been going, I'd go w/ a rainstorm instead of snow. I.e., rain, heavy at times on Thursday and then Friday rain tapering off to a few snowshowers as colder air filters in, as the low moves away in a SE direction w/ no accumulations expected, perhaps a coating, if that. Later that evening, skies remain mostly cloudy and cold w/ lows in the 20s, w/ patches of ice forming, due to flooding.

This will be the storm for S MI, watch!!!!

[WinterSquall23]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

The next chance for
widespread precipitation will be centered late Thursday into Friday
once a midweek Pacific wave comes onshore and aids in the development
of low pressure. Plenty of uncertainties still exist at this time
regarding the longwave pattern (progressive vs. possible cut-off low)
and thermal profile over SE MI, which will have implications on
p-types.

 

Lets see how this plays out, but if I were to guess, w/ the way this winter has been going, I'd go w/ a rainstorm instead of snow.

Me too.  The pattern is weird this year.  Although we had a dusting of snow last night which was a surprise. So who knows. 

[sumweatherdude]

It just graupeled for 5 minutes!  Woohoo!  Winter is back.  

[Niko]

1 minute ago, Ferndale_man said:

Me too.  The pattern is weird this year.  Although we had a dusting of snow last night which was a surprise. So who knows. 

Very weird. Almost as if we live in Seattle, WA. I noticed the light dusting too. Spotty on grassy surfaces and etc here as well, but this should be more like the first snows that we typically get in Nov, or even sometimes in October. For January standards, getting these dustings and coatings, simply says that this pattern is definitely screwed up.

[sumweatherdude]

57 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

So the “garbage, absolute trash model” GFS shows a decent snowstorm, but the “king” Euro shows a rain only system….

I guess that means it’s going to rain right?

 

[WinterSquall23]

20 minutes ago, Niko said:

Very weird. Almost as if we live in Seattle, WA. I noticed the light dusting too. Spotty on grassy surfaces and etc here as well, but this should be more like the first snows that we typically get in Nov, or even sometimes in October. For January standards, getting these dustings and coatings, simply says that this pattern is definitely screwed up.

Yeah this is what Seattle gets in January if they are lucky although if you live above 1000 ft it can be a different world.  Dusting at Sea level, go up 1000 ft in elevation and it’s 4to 5 inches or more.  If it wasn’t for the elevation I would be flat out rain or a mix.  Sometimes it doesn’t snow and they can go a year or two without any measurable snow .  Here’s hoping the pattern flips soon. !  

[Niko]

Holy crap! I just saw the sun peek from that heavy cloud deck. Annnnnd I saw some blue sky as well. Seriously, that felt so good to my system. Vitamin D baby!

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

The next chance for
widespread precipitation will be centered late Thursday into Friday
once a midweek Pacific wave comes onshore and aids in the development
of low pressure. Plenty of uncertainties still exist at this time
regarding the longwave pattern (progressive vs. possible cut-off low)
and thermal profile over SE MI, which will have implications on
p-types.

 

Lets see how this plays out, but if I were to guess, w/ the way this winter has been going, I'd go w/ a rainstorm instead of snow. I.e., rain, heavy at times on Thursday and then Friday rain tapering off to a few snowshowers as colder air filters in, as the low moves away in a SE direction w/ no accumulations expected, perhaps a coating, if that. Later that evening, skies remain mostly cloudy and cold w/ lows in the 20s, w/ patches of ice forming, due to flooding.

This will be the storm for S MI, watch!!!!

Yeah, rainstorm. Well, we survived week 1 of boredom winter. This brown and grey crap here since I moved is really sad. We did get a couple/few sunny days w/snow OTG days post-storm last winter like shown by @hawkstwelve. Extreme rarity the past 2 or 3 winters for me personally tho. 

[Clinton]

A cool damp day has become a bit icy.  Sleet has been falling for the past hour with a temp of 31.

[weatherfan2012]

20 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

The raging NINA is the problem. The SOI was on the verge of going negative in early December, had it done so we would have a much better winter going on right now. Really sad 

Larry Cosgrove is getting attack on by alot of people because he went for a cold stormy winter.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

We are within the top ten days for largest snow depth at FSD.

 

It's awesome when depths get like that. Over here 2013-14 was the winter for deep snow like that and it lasted all winter. Max depths by month for KBTL: Dec 8" Jan 16" Feb 18" Mar 22"

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove is getting attack on by alot of people because he went for a cold stormy winter.

If you recall, ALL the outlooks had 11-12 delivering an historically harsh winter with tons of storms and snow. This is so deja-vu

[jaster220]

Woah! Overnight puddle ice Watch this week - look at those sub-freezing lows

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z GFS got rid of the snowstorm just like the Euro.

Everyone’s favorite model is always whichever one is good for them. GFS was RAILED ON here for the last storm, and has been for a long time, but in the end could be considered as doing just as well as the Euro in that they were both wrong 4-5 days out by quite a bit.

Meanwhile nice week here coming up!

[Grizzcoat]

GFS with this current system ( I use that term lightly) in MO has been total trash and the off in la la land all week. Here is it's run from 00Z Thurs at only HR 78--

Here it's today at 12Z --

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Many on here are waiting for Queen Euro to produce another blizzard for Omaha, while ignoring the consistent GFS which continues to lay down a good snow for same people complaining about getting no snow.

IF we're going to get a more favorable background for winter storms/wx it appears that would come in the final 1/3 of January and not likely b4. This edition of the LRC cut-off Low might be more of a rain-maker like last time around. With a similar track around KTOL I would not rule out NMI scoring something where avg temps are just enough lower. 

[Grizzcoat]

The thing about the GFS is it's 18Z and 06Z runs are complete joke past 72-96 hours--- a reason why not to trust the snow event that current 18Z is showing for S.IA and points E.  It will revert back to S and rain for most.

[Up_north_MI]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It's awesome when depths get like that. Over here 2013-14 was the winter for deep snow like that and it lasted all winter. Max depths by month for KBTL: Dec 8" Jan 16" Feb 18" Mar 22"

In the 21 years we’ve had our place in northern lower MI the deepest snow depths have almost always been the first week of March. We “only” average around 90” per season, we’re about 10 miles south of Grayling or around 25 miles due south of the NWS office out of Gaylord. Grayling’s average is around 110” and Gaylord’s average is around 140” I believe and this whole area usually has peak depths in early March. Seeing Sioux Falls peak depths look to happen in early to mid February kinda surprised me for some reason, I would have thought most places along the 45th Parallel would have peak depths around the same time for some reason. 

[Niko]

Good Ol' Winter 2013-14...Worst Winter ever recorded in SEMI ........

2014---North America massive arctic outbreak. I remember when Detroit was  at -14F a couple of mornings w/ a wcf in the -20s and -30s, along w/ deep snow. Yikes. Now, we can only dream about this.

Check out Chicago: In the Deep Freeze!!!

[kush61]

So.....

What ???

.....because it's not "IMBY" it's not worth watching ?

There's a storm coming and many are to be effected from it.

Please no "lock it in" and wish casting, just the facts !!!

 

[Hawkeye]

The last two days the temp really under-performed.  The GFS and Euro both had low 30s Fri/Sat.  The NWS and locals also had upper 20s to low 30s.  The actual high in Cedar Rapids was 20º both days.

[Andie]

On 1/7/2023 at 9:35 AM, Thunder98 said:

Its been Niño like in California with the parade of powerful storms for the past 2 weeks.

I hope it bodes well for the Southern Midwest!!    I don’t want California to flood or deal with mudslides, but we need rain.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

The thing about the GFS is it's 18Z and 06Z runs are complete joke past 72-96 hours--- a reason why not to trust the snow event that current 18Z is showing for S.IA and points E.  It will revert back to S and rain for most.

Yep!

[OmahaSnowFan]

OZ Euro

[Madtown]

26 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

OZ Euro

ouch

[westMJim]

Good morning! Just to show how warm the first week of January 2023 has been, the overnight low here in my yard so far for today is 29 and that is the coldest it has been here since December 28^th.  The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 32/29 there was a trace of snow fall and at GRR there was a reported 1” of snow on the ground. Note there was no snow on the ground in my area. GRR reported no sunshine but the sun did come out here for a very short time. For today the average H/L is 31/20 the record high of 59 was set in 1965 and the record low of -12 was set in 1988. The record snow fall of 5.2” was set in 2015.  There sill is no really cold in the foreseeable future. With only hints of some cold maybe near the end of January.  

The most snow reported on the ground in Lower Michigan is up towards the tip where there is around 3 to 4 inches. However in the UP the Sault and Marquette have 22” and Munising has 25” so it is a different story once one gets north of the bridge. But even in the UP January has been much warmer than average.

[gosaints]

Gonna be grass showing lots of places after this torch.  Msp probably reloads after it's done

[Clinton]

The ground is white here this morning but barely a flake of snow fell yesterday.  A rather narrow band of sleet formed and trained over the same area most of the afternoon.  About 1/2 inch of sleet on the ground here but some reports of an 1 1/2 inches of sleet NE of Warrensburg.  Roads are still a mess this morning.

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri

14 hours ago

Getting a few reports of some slide offs in Johnson County, Mo. near Warrensburg. There is a band of heavy sleet/snow that accumulated quickly on roadways. This band may affect areas of Johnson, Pettis, Cooper, Howard, Saline, Lafayette, Chariton, Carroll and Randolph counties as it moves NE this evening. Use caution if travelling in these areas as roadways may be or may quickly become slick.