January 2023 Observations and Discussions

[Up_north_MI]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It's awesome when depths get like that. Over here 2013-14 was the winter for deep snow like that and it lasted all winter. Max depths by month for KBTL: Dec 8" Jan 16" Feb 18" Mar 22"

In the 21 years we’ve had our place in northern lower MI the deepest snow depths have almost always been the first week of March. We “only” average around 90” per season, we’re about 10 miles south of Grayling or around 25 miles due south of the NWS office out of Gaylord. Grayling’s average is around 110” and Gaylord’s average is around 140” I believe and this whole area usually has peak depths in early March. Seeing Sioux Falls peak depths look to happen in early to mid February kinda surprised me for some reason, I would have thought most places along the 45th Parallel would have peak depths around the same time for some reason. 

[Niko]

Good Ol' Winter 2013-14...Worst Winter ever recorded in SEMI ........

2014---North America massive arctic outbreak. I remember when Detroit was  at -14F a couple of mornings w/ a wcf in the -20s and -30s, along w/ deep snow. Yikes. Now, we can only dream about this.

Check out Chicago: In the Deep Freeze!!!

[kush61]

So.....

What ???

.....because it's not "IMBY" it's not worth watching ?

There's a storm coming and many are to be effected from it.

Please no "lock it in" and wish casting, just the facts !!!

 

[Hawkeye]

The last two days the temp really under-performed.  The GFS and Euro both had low 30s Fri/Sat.  The NWS and locals also had upper 20s to low 30s.  The actual high in Cedar Rapids was 20º both days.

[Andie]

On 1/7/2023 at 9:35 AM, Thunder98 said:

Its been Niño like in California with the parade of powerful storms for the past 2 weeks.

I hope it bodes well for the Southern Midwest!!    I don’t want California to flood or deal with mudslides, but we need rain.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

The thing about the GFS is it's 18Z and 06Z runs are complete joke past 72-96 hours--- a reason why not to trust the snow event that current 18Z is showing for S.IA and points E.  It will revert back to S and rain for most.

Yep!

[OmahaSnowFan]

OZ Euro

[Madtown]

26 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

OZ Euro

ouch

[westMJim]

Good morning! Just to show how warm the first week of January 2023 has been, the overnight low here in my yard so far for today is 29 and that is the coldest it has been here since December 28^th.  The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 32/29 there was a trace of snow fall and at GRR there was a reported 1” of snow on the ground. Note there was no snow on the ground in my area. GRR reported no sunshine but the sun did come out here for a very short time. For today the average H/L is 31/20 the record high of 59 was set in 1965 and the record low of -12 was set in 1988. The record snow fall of 5.2” was set in 2015.  There sill is no really cold in the foreseeable future. With only hints of some cold maybe near the end of January.  

The most snow reported on the ground in Lower Michigan is up towards the tip where there is around 3 to 4 inches. However in the UP the Sault and Marquette have 22” and Munising has 25” so it is a different story once one gets north of the bridge. But even in the UP January has been much warmer than average.

[gosaints]

Gonna be grass showing lots of places after this torch.  Msp probably reloads after it's done

[Clinton]

The ground is white here this morning but barely a flake of snow fell yesterday.  A rather narrow band of sleet formed and trained over the same area most of the afternoon.  About 1/2 inch of sleet on the ground here but some reports of an 1 1/2 inches of sleet NE of Warrensburg.  Roads are still a mess this morning.

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri

14 hours ago

Getting a few reports of some slide offs in Johnson County, Mo. near Warrensburg. There is a band of heavy sleet/snow that accumulated quickly on roadways. This band may affect areas of Johnson, Pettis, Cooper, Howard, Saline, Lafayette, Chariton, Carroll and Randolph counties as it moves NE this evening. Use caution if travelling in these areas as roadways may be or may quickly become slick.

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that most (if not, all) of January is going to be very mild. 

 

 

But, when February comes in . . . 

[chescowxman]

Increasing clouds today with some models still showing our "largest" snow event of the year starting after midnight tonight and wrapping up by the Monday morning rush. If there really is any accumulation at all it is most likely on grassy and non-paved surfaces above 550ft across the County. Temperatures will for the most part remain above freezing while any snow is falling with maybe the exception of the highest spots in Western Chester County. A mainly dry and slightly above normal temperature week looks likely with a large mainly rain event looking likely by Thursday night with it possibly starting as snow.

The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1998. The record low is 5 below zero from 1981. Daily rain mark is the 1.81" from 1978. Our daily snow record was day 2 of the Blizzard of 1996....when a final 6.1" fell bringing our final total to 28.9" of snow with 30" on the ground at storms end.

[jaster220]

18 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

In the 21 years we’ve had our place in northern lower MI the deepest snow depths have almost always been the first week of March. We “only” average around 90” per season, we’re about 10 miles south of Grayling or around 25 miles due south of the NWS office out of Gaylord. Grayling’s average is around 110” and Gaylord’s average is around 140” I believe and this whole area usually has peak depths in early March. Seeing Sioux Falls peak depths look to happen in early to mid February kinda surprised me for some reason, I would have thought most places along the 45th Parallel would have peak depths around the same time for some reason. 

Over the course of decades, the N Plains start accumulating snowfall earlier than us here in the cozy Mitt. That leads to the (usually, not necessarily lately) mid-winter peak out there as the seasonal jet takes more and more of a SE shift as the season goes along shifting the storm track further east.

On a micro scale, that is even obvious between my former locale just three counties west (KRMY) and my current area (KDTW). Marshall out-snows Detroit in both Dec and Jan due to LES hits off of Lake Michigan. Then Detroit passes Marshall beginning in Feb for the balance of snow months (FMA) as the LES turn off and the mean storm track continues its migration eastward. Again, this is all based on long-term averages and any individual season may or may not behave in this manner. 

[jaster220]

18 hours ago, Niko said:

Good Ol' Winter 2013-14...Worst Winter ever recorded in SEMI ........

2014---North America massive arctic outbreak. I remember when Detroit was  at -14F a couple of mornings w/ a wcf in the -20s and -30s, along w/ deep snow. Yikes. Now, we can only dream about this.

Check out Chicago: In the Deep Freeze!!!

Nice graphic collection amigo! Hard to imagine DTW and ORD ever looking like that the way it has been lately.

[Stacsh]

Starting to wonder what the record is for least amount of snow for GR in January.  

[OKwx2k4]

So,, watching model progressions, the pattern post 13th is going to be a start of a systematic breakdown of the warm Niña pattern being felt over the south-central US at present.

I think things get winter-wild down here after that. 

[Andie]

If it brings some rain I’m okay with that.  

[westMJim]

6 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Starting to wonder what the record is for least amount of snow for GR in January.

Here is the list of the least snowy January's at GR 1st. 1933--0.8" 2nd 1921--1.2" 3rd 1934--1.4" 4th 1932--3.2" 5th 1944 3.7" 6th 1902--4.0" 7th 2001--4.7" in the winter of 2000/01 it was also a La Nina winter and November 2000 had 23.0" and then December 2000 had 59.2" This winter November had 28.0" and December had 39.6" so we could be in for a very low snow fall total this month.

Edited January 9 by westMJim
update

[OmahaSnowFan]

At least it’s not cold and snowless.

14/33 are the averages this time of year.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Starting to wonder what the record is for least amount of snow for GR in January.  

Most amazing snowless month I am aware of is Feb '98 when Traverse City recorded a big fat 0.0" total for the month. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Here is the list of the least snowy January's at GR 1st. 1933--0.8" 2nd 1921--1.2" 3rd 1933--1.4" 4th 1932--3.2" 5th 1944 3.7" 6th 1902--4.0" 7th 2001--4.7" in the winter of 2000/01 it was also a La Nina winter and November 2000 had 23.0" and then December 2000 had 59.2" This winter November had 28.0" and December had 39.6" so we could be in for a very low snow fall total this month.

So, you're saying that January '33 was soooo bad it made the list twice??

[jaster220]

Key points: 1. Warm Jan was expected per top analogs. 2. Cold pattern returns late month 3. CFS showing what I feared, FMA all cold. It has been wrong before but fits what we've been dealing with recently in these Nina's

WeatherBELL Analytics

(scroll down to the Sat Summary vid)

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-13214944

[Niko]

Pssssttttt........ @jaster220..have ya seen the latest Euro for late next week. I know its several days away, but always good to have the Euro on board.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

So,, watching model progressions, the pattern post 13th is going to be a start of a systematic breakdown of the warm Niña pattern being felt over the south-central US at present.

I think things get winter-wild down here after that. 

Good to see back to back runs of the GFS bringing down the artic air the 3rd week of the month.  Real glad it will be in place for the big dog on the 31st.

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Key points: 1. Warm Jan was expected per top analogs. 2. Cold pattern returns late month 3. CFS showing what I feared, FMA all cold. It has been wrong before but fits what we've been dealing with recently in these Nina's

WeatherBELL Analytics

(scroll down to the Sat Summary vid)

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-13214944

Bastardi was showing that.  KC used to get big snows in March and April but that seems to be a thing of the past.  Come mid March I'm ready for Spring.  I hope we make the most of the last 1/3 of this month and February. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Niko said:

Pssssttttt........ @jaster220..have ya seen the latest Euro for late next week. I know its  several days away, but always good to have the Euro on board.

Models are wanting to deliver some snow for ya this coming weekend but ensembles are sketchy. 

[jaster220]

As @Clinton noted, sketchy set-up is the rule of thumb here. Since this was just posted, and no doubt outlines the scenario much better than DTX's afd would, I will share this from the ORD Met. (notice he mentions the cut-off scenario having to produce it's own cold as I alluded to earlier)

Quote

While it's a tenuous setup and the antecedent air mass isn't good, it has my attention since there's nothing else to track until possibly reshuffling the pattern later in the month.

Aside from the late season like air mass, the synoptic pieces are good if things work out well: A juiced southern stream wave associated with the latest potent California AR event, deepening surface low tracking near the Ohio Valley into the eastern Lakes, and a 1030-1035 mb high pressure spreading in from the northern Plains.

Not particularly optimistic yet for the Chicago metro since the improved GFS and ECMWF runs (vs 00z last night) still would put us too far northwest. But at least don't have to squint to see what we'd need, early enough negative tilt of the main wave and/or phasing or constructive interaction with an incoming northern stream wave, to get a swath of heavy wet snow farther northwest.

Unfortunately it remains a thread the needle type setup due to the air mass and needing things to break right as described above. It does have a more classic synoptic setup than the closed low depiction of GFS runs Saturday and prior that would be heavily reliant on dynamic cooling (while the ECMWF runs had no cold air to speak of), so maybe a bit better chance of success.

 

[Niko]

Just now, Clinton said:

Models are wanting to deliver some snow for ya this coming weekend but ensembles are sketchy. 

True, in fact, I'll take ensemble #11 pls . The fact remains that this low looks like it will be tracking through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Lakes. Also, a strong high pressure to the north should help as well. We will see what happens, but, its something to pay close attn, since no other storm will be happening to track.

[Niko]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good to see back to back runs of the GFS bringing down the artic air the 3rd week of the month.  Real glad it will be in place for the big dog on the 31st.

I have a strong feeling that January will go out w/ a bang..watch! It will not disappoint. Back-loaded winter in the works amigo!

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

I have a strong feeling that January will go out w/ a bang..watch! It will not disappoint. Back-loaded winter in the works amigo!

There is at least some historical precedent for that scenario. Wrt all boring January scenarios i.e. too warm, too cold, and just plain uneventful. The very mild JAN '90 ended with a 2 foot blizzard for NWMI. I moved to Traverse City just 8 months later and heard the stories from all my coworkers of how they couldn't even get home after work and walked to motels to spend the night. And that was right in the city. Ofc GHD-2 came on the heals of a rather uneventful DEC & JAN combo. Bliz of '82 hit Jan 31st after a JAN that had most storms going too far north. That storm treated DTW very well. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Pssssttttt........ @jaster220..have ya seen the latest Euro for late next week. I know its several days away, but always good to have the Euro on board.

I'm not looking at models after the last several fiascos. This will just be another system where the models paint the rosiest of portrayals and in the end most of my qpf falls in liquid form. And this one has even an better shot at that since thermals are the big issue. Anyways, until proven wrong I'm sticking with that glass half empty mantra. 

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Most amazing snowless month I am aware of is Feb '98 when Traverse City recorded a big fat 0.0" total for the month. 

Wow that’s crazy 

[WinterSquall23]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

As @Clinton noted, sketchy set-up is the rule of thumb here. Since this was just posted, and no doubt outlines the scenario much better than DTX's afd would, I will share this from the ORD Met. (notice he mentions the cut-off scenario having to produce it's own cold as I alluded to earlier)

 

 

[WinterSquall23]

Still learning here what was 2017 was that a neutral year.  We got a lot of snow that year. 

[Clinton]

51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

There is at least some historical precedent for that scenario. Wrt all boring January scenarios i.e. too warm, too cold, and just plain uneventful. The very mild JAN '90 ended with a 2 foot blizzard for NWMI. I moved to Traverse City just 8 months ago later and heard the stories from all my coworkers of how they couldn't even get home after work and walked to motels to spend the night. And that was right in the city. Ofc GHD-2 came on the heals of a rather uneventful DEC & JAN combo. Bliz of '82 hit Jan 31st after a JAN that had most storms going too far north. That storm treated DTW very well. 

The last 2 Winters here have been from Feb 1st to March 10th and this one looks to be another repeat.  This one may be different because I think we'll have a lot of artic air around and keep the snow on longer.  I'm far enough south the sun in February really goes to work on snow cover fast.

[Niko]

45 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm not looking at models after the last several fiascos. This will just be another system where the models paint the rosiest of portrayals and in the end most of my qpf falls in liquid form. And this one has even an better shot at that since thermals are the big issue. Anyways, until proven wrong I'm sticking with that glass half empty mantra. 

Still many days to track this storm, but no matter what happens amigo, its fun to see its outcome. If it does end up being a rainer, then we move on to the Big Dog (31st) that Clinton is mentioning. But, for now, w/ this upcoming storm, we have a chance for accumulating snowfall and could linger into Friday as well. We will see what happens. Main story here is that we have at least something to track next week, considering the crazy pattern that we are in.

 

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, Niko said:

Still many days to track this storm, but no matter what happens amigo, its fun to see its outcome. If it does end up being a rainer, then we move on to the Big Dog (31st) that Clinton is mentioning. But, for now, w/ this upcoming storm, we have a chance for accumulating snowfall and could linger into Friday as well. We will see what happens. Main story here is that we have at least something to track next week, considering the crazy pattern that we are in.

 

Well, let us hope so. I got burned-out tracking what I thought would be a much bigger deal at Christmas. Shoulda just rode those "blues" on the ensembles and never looked at all those Operational models showing dbl digit hits here. Mostly it was the CMC and GFS. I don't recall the Euro showing anything too crazy here, and certainly the NAM not being too excited was a canary in the coal mine moment. 

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So, you're saying that January '33 was soooo bad it made the list twice??

Whoops in 3rd place is 1934 with 1.4" there were so many years in the 1930's with low snow fall totals in January. Thanks for seeing that. I also updated to show the correct year.

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Most amazing snowless month I am aware of is Feb '98 when Traverse City recorded a big fat 0.0" total for the month. 

February 1998 GR only recorded 0.5" of snow fall for the least snow fall for February at GR. 1998 was also the 2nd warmest February on record as well.

[hawkstwelve]

Beautiful cold winter sunset tonight.

[Madtown]

Good one over this way too!

[OKwx2k4]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Good to see back to back runs of the GFS bringing down the artic air the 3rd week of the month.  Real glad it will be in place for the big dog on the 31st.

Yes. I have had a fair bit of thought that everything would line up one round this season and that's right in the appropriate time window. 

The alternate part of this deal until then is going to produce the extremes reminiscent of last summer. Droughty regions in TX, western OK, KS and parts of NW Nebraska all look to continue the persistence trend until the compressed jet battering Cali into "once a generation" flooding submission connects later into the end of winter. 

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday was yet another cloudy mild snowless January day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 32/28 there was no rain/snow fall. No sunshine. There was a reported trace of snow on the ground at GRR but here in the NW side of town there is only left over snow piles. Overnight temperatures held steady around 29 to 30 and at the current time it is 29 here in my yard. For today the average H/L is now at 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 1939 and the record low of    -12 was in 1977. The record snow fall of 8” was in 1930. At the current time Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing are on possible track that could lead to one of the warmest, least snowy January’s on record. It is way too early to say that will happen but for it to happen it has to start somewhere.

 

[chescowxman]

The sun should return today. We should stay dry and a few degrees above normal (what's new) for most of the week. Temps will rise well into the 40's with rain by Thursday night into Friday. Temps will fall to near normal for next weekend with dry weather.

The record high for today is 68 degrees from 1930. Our record low is 1 below zero from 1970. Daily rain record is the 1.66" from 1964. Daily snow record is the 3.0" from that very cold January of 1977.

[chescowxman]

As we await the possible return of winter weather at some point later this winter. Below is a list of the Top 25 all-time January Snowstorms here in the Western Suburbs of Philly in Chester County PA

[OttumwaSnomow]

19 minutes ago, chescowxman said:

As we await the possible return of winter weather at some point later this winter. Below is a list of the Top 25 all-time January Snowstorms here in the Western Suburbs of Philly in Chester County PA

What did you have feb 11 1983?

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Good morning! Yesterday was yet another cloudy mild snowless January day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 32/28 there was no rain/snow fall. No sunshine. There was a reported trace of snow on the ground at GRR but here in the NW side of town there is only left over snow piles. Overnight temperatures held steady around 29 to 30 and at the current time it is 29 here in my yard. For today the average H/L is now at 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 1939 and the record low of    -12 was in 1977. The record snow fall of 8” was in 1930. At the current time Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing are on possible track that could lead to one of the warmest, least snowy January’s on record. It is way too early to say that will happen but for it to happen it has to start somewhere.

 

To me it's felt like late February or early March the past 10 days.  Not super cold, snow piles hanging around.  Greenish grass.  Almost like spring is around the corner.  I know it's not and we have a long way to go in winter and things can turn quickly later this month.  But the feeling is odd for middle of January.  

[Madtown]

This looks brutal the next 2 weeks... low 30's no real snow chance and possible rain early next week. Brutal 

[bud2380]

The Sierra Nevada range in CA is going to get rocked today and tomorrow.  I looked at the point forecast for Mammoth Lakes and 13-19" is the forecast today, despite temperatures in the mid 30s.  Below is the web cam.  It's fun to see them pushing around this much snow.  

 

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village