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January 2023 Observations and Discussions


Clinton

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

After an in-depth look into the data, the LRC, the forthcoming colder pattern...I must say, I'm getting pretty D**n excited for what is about to happen across the heart of this Sub.  It's not a question of Winter coming back, the question I have now is...How long and How wild can this pattern get?  This post may steer some ppl the wrong way but what I am seeing is a bonafide "snow blitz" that is going to set up for the duration of the 2nd half of JAN.  To be completely transparent, I originally thought today's storm will "kick off" the pattern but instead, it appears its going to be the system next week that kick starts the return of Ol' Man Winter.  Let's dive in to the data.

A few things we know about the LRC is that a wave train will develop starting on MLK day as a warm GL's cutter, then this system, depending on its strength, paves the way for the next S Stream Cutter...or...it may end up being a Slider, depending on the strength of the Hudson Bay Block.  Following this system, all the models signal a -EPO pattern locking and suddenly, the PNA is trending more neutral/negative (BIG SIGNAL).  This is an IDEAL pattern to keep the storm track right through the heart of the SUB.  #SWFLOW

 

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The LRC suggests more storms to hit the PAC NW/Rockies and into the 4 Corners come the week of the 22nd.  I'm eye balling a big storm to form out of the 4 corners region during the 24th-26th period that will dig deep into the S Plains and track up through the S MW/OHV.  My gut tells me this one is going to be a hellova Winter storm.  Watch out @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Black Hole...this one has eyes for you guys down south.  The cold will be locked in across the Central CONUS for the foreseeable future.  If all plays out as the model data suggests, this can end up becoming a really special period for snow enthusiasts, like myself, and many others on here.  It's time baby for Mother Nature to put on a show!

LET IT SNOW!

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0z EPS...SW FLOW...how long can this GO???

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Its about time! Y'all know the drill in Late January and into February!

 

IT'S SHOWTIME!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Overnight runs of the EPS and GEFS.

Big shift south on the EPS for the storm on the 18th and 19th.

1674194400-7dWs6KZm60Q.png

Next storm of note should be around the 25th.  This is when Winter will begin for my KC friends and myself.  Very strong signal from the GEFS given the distance.  This is NOT the big storm I've eluded to at the end of the month, that will be about 5 days later.  Snowy days ahead for the southern and eastern members.

 1674756000-hQuJoKjZyBQ.png

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Overnight runs of the EPS and GEFS.

Big shift south on the EPS for the storm on the 18th and 19th.

1674194400-7dWs6KZm60Q.png

Next storm of note should be around the 25th.  This is when Winter will begin for KC and myself.  Very strong signal from the GEFS given the distance.  This is NOT the big storm I've eluded to at the end of the month, that will be about 5 days later.  Snowy days ahead for the southern and eastern members.

 1674756000-hQuJoKjZyBQ.png

 

 

It's SHOWTIME!  I'm loving the Potential this pattern that is forthcoming for many of us across the board.  Let's see what nature has in store.

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's SHOWTIME!  I'm loving the Potential this pattern that is forthcoming for many of us across the board.  Let's see what nature has in store.

The EPO looks to finally go negative on the 21st, that should cause the dam to break on the artic air a few days later.  For KC and points south we really need that to be close or in place to get a big snow.

1673568000-1v6Ra1WR1uMgrb2.png

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Friday the 13th.  As it has been all this month yesterday was another above average temperature day. The official H/L was 43/35. Records started at Grand Rapids in 1892 and yesterday was the 10th warmest high and the 3rd warmest low for any January 12th at Grand Rapids. There was no rain/snow no sunshine and there is no snow on the ground (other than snow piles) The overnight low is the current temperature of 30 both here in my yard and at GRR. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 58 was set in 1932 and the record low of -5 was set in 2015 the most snow fall of 10.5” was recorded in 1979. The next two days look to be the coldest days of the month so far. And there is a chance that it could drop down into the teens tomorrow morning. The low for the month so far is just 28. After the cool down it looks to warm back up again next week.

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@Tom Will it turn cold again?  While we do not know how the rest of January will turn out, the first 12 days of this January at Grand Rapids have been warmer than the warmest top 10 Januarys. The top are 1932,1933,2006,1990,1906,2020,1934,1921,1989 and 2002. Of the those years only 2002 had a warmer February than January. In 1934 after a January mean of 31.0 the February mean was just 19.9 and that year the cold extended into March with a mean of 29. and in 1989 after a warm January with a mean of 30.7 the February mean was 19.7 and March was cold with a mean of 31.8. 2002 and 1921 were the only years that February was either warmer (2002) and 1921 about the same. the other years February was colder than January.

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You know something, it is indeed Friday the 13th, and we do have one of the largest Mega Millions Jackpots today....but wrt to the snow starved wx enthusiasts on here, is our luck about to turn the corner in the modeling?  What a wild flip towards a more cold and active wx pattern.  The MLK Day system needs some attn bc typically in this type of "wave train" pattern, the HP behind the system usually will determine the next storms path.  Interesting evolution setting up shop over the central CONUS.

0z EPS...

 

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0z GEPS...

sn10_024h-mean-imp.conus.png

 

sn10_024h-mean-imp.conus.png

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13 minutes ago, westMJim said:

@Tom Will it turn cold again?  While we do not know how the rest of January will turn out, the first 12 days of this January at Grand Rapids have been warmer than the warmest top 10 Januarys. The top are 1932,1933,2006,1990,1906,2020,1934,1921,1989 and 2002. Of the those years only 2002 had a warmer February than January. In 1934 after a January mean of 31.0 the February mean was just 19.9 and that year the cold extended into March with a mean of 29. and in 1989 after a warm January with a mean of 30.7 the February mean was 19.7 and March was cold with a mean of 31.8. 2002 and 1921 were the only years that February was either warmer (2002) and 1921 about the same. the other years February was colder than January.

IMO, there is going to be a Fierce battle with brutal Arctic Air knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies/UpperMW post 22nd and into the end of JAN, while a SER develops.  The key to how cold it gets farther east will be how strong the SER ends up becoming.  At this range, it will get cold for the Lower Lakes region but it gets sketchy from the OHV and those along the EC.  Cold enough for it to Snow???  Yes, IMO those of us around the Lakes should do well in this patter bc the EPO is tanking and there is enough high lat blocking that'll suffice.

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

You know something, it is indeed Friday the 13th, and we do have one of the largest Mega Millions Jackpots today....but wrt to the snow starved wx enthusiasts on here, is our luck about to turn the corner in the modeling?  What a wild flip towards a more cold and active wx pattern.  The MLK Day system needs some attn bc typically in this type of "wave train" pattern, the HP behind the system usually will determine the next storms path.  Interesting evolution setting up shop over the central CONUS.

0z EPS...

 

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image.gif

 

0z GEPS...

sn10_024h-mean-imp.conus.png

 

sn10_024h-mean-imp.conus.png

From the LRC side of things the more we start to see of cycle 3 the more it looks like cycle 1 as far as potential storm tracks.  That is great news for those of us who have been missing out on snow.  Do you agree?

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

From the LRC side of things the more we start to see of cycle 3 the more it looks like cycle 1 as far as potential storm tracks.  That is great news for those of us who have been missing out on snow.  Do you agree?

Yes, that's what I'm seeing right now and also we are entering the time when the seasonal jet is usually at its strongest from now till early FEB.  I think the STJ will be en fuego well into FEB/MAR given the way the weather has performed over the U.S. these past few months.

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A few showers will pass through this morning as a cold front has just crossed the county. We have picked up 0.23" of rain since yesterday. Temperatures today will fall from our 2am high temp of 52.3 degrees we have now fallen to 46.7. We should see temps falling below freezing by 8pm this evening. Tomorrow will be our first below normal day of the year an first since December 27th. Tomorrow will also be windy. Temps should once again moderate back to above normal by Monday with our next chance of rain arriving Tuesday.
The record high for today is 68 degrees set back in 1932. Our record low is the 11 degrees below zero reading from 1912. Daily precipitation record is 1.34" and our daily snow record is the 6.0" that fell today in 1964.
image.png.825cf923523f1114dbfce3ff9546bdbc.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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A dusting of snow fell this morning. Here and there. Temps in he 20s. Looking forward to some nice vitamin D this weekend b4 clouds roll back in again by late Sunday in advanced of our next system (rainmaker w/40s) for early next week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Below is the updated analysis comparing PHL Airport vs. All long running Chester County Observation Sites from 1940 through 2022. For the year 2022 all Chester County locations reported lower average temperatures vs. 2021. ranging from 0.4 to 1.0 degrees cooler than the prior year. Philadelphia was 1.0 degree warmer than 2021.

The analysis for the last 82 years since 1940 shows overall trends of modest cooling at the Chester County stations at Glenmoore and slight warming at Phoenixville and West Chester with Coatesville/East Nantmeal showing the most warming but only very modest warming at best. Philadelphia's trends of course shows pronounced steady warming that is continuing to accelerate.image.thumb.png.64ad49b957b685da1374bd458022fddb.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The late-week storm on the GFS has gone from strong, hard cutter to suppressed and much weaker in 24 hours.  I have zero confidence Iowa will get anything from this.  Last night's Euro was still solid, but the Euro will probably fade south, too.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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38 minutes ago, chescowxman said:

Below is the updated analysis comparing PHL Airport vs. All long running Chester County Observation Sites from 1940 through 2022. For the year 2022 all Chester County locations reported lower average temperatures vs. 2021. ranging from 0.4 to 1.0 degrees cooler than the prior year. Philadelphia was 1.0 degree warmer than 2021.

The analysis for the last 82 years since 1940 shows overall trends of modest cooling at the Chester County stations at Glenmoore and slight warming at Phoenixville and West Chester with Coatesville/East Nantmeal showing the most warming but only very modest warming at best. Philadelphia's trends of course shows pronounced steady warming that is continuing to accelerate.image.thumb.png.64ad49b957b685da1374bd458022fddb.png

Its interesting  to see the differences in locations.. The York, PA  Airport  is a notoriously  cool location.. what do you attribute  the rates of warming to at different  locations  in the Phili area?  Urban heat island?

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The 12z UK is way south and weak late next week... doesn't even throw precip north of KC-STL.

It's amazing how difficult it is to get a big snowstorm here.  Ten variables have to line up just right.  🤮

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Have not been on here as not much going on and don't see anything in the near future with regards to any appreciable snow. Maybe February will bring back winter but not holding any hope at this point. Models will just keep flip flopping on every run giving you hope one minute only to take it away the next.

The brutal winter that was advertised early on never materialized. Color me shocked!!

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The late-week storm on the GFS has gone from strong, hard cutter to suppressed and much weaker in 24 hours.  I have zero confidence Iowa will get anything from this.  Last night's Euro was still solid, but the Euro will probably fade south, too.

It's really hard to believe anything the GFS spits out.  It's so all over the place.  I'm starting to think don't even bother with other models.  The Euro will end up closer than any (even if it's still wrong), it can't do worse than the GFS.  

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Looks like highs will remain in the 20s today. Could this actually be a BN day tempwise?! Wow!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It seems like there is almost always a lead wave (the rain system early next week) that sweeps the moisture away ahead of any potential winter storm around here.  If the gulf is wide open, storms end up crushing the Dakotas and Minnesota.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Didn't it have the snow in Northern Nebraska and South Dakota in yesterday's run?  I'm getting to the point that I don't trust much unless it's within a day or two of the event.  

It has major issues in the mid range.  Something sure is giving it a lot trouble this year.

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The Euro track is good for a solid snow event.  However, wtf do we have to do to get daylight snow?  Like 90% of our snow events, this Euro run has snow starting in late evening and ending around sunrise.  It's unreal how often the timing is exactly like this.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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