Tom Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 While most of us on here will open up the New Year on the warm and wet side of things, some of our members out west who have been anxiously waiting for a legit snow, will be in the midst of a potential potent high impact winter storm. The models are wavering on how much this storm cuts NW as the GFS/GGEM are father NW than the Euro Op. Let's discuss... 0z Euro is digging this storm a little farther south and takes a track right through KC/DSM and clobbers NE up into MN...what a run! There is somewhat of an icing signal for OMA peeps.... @CentralNebWeather @gabel23 @hawkstwelve 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 0z CMCE... 0z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 36 minutes ago, Tom said: While most of us on here will open up the New Year on the warm and wet side of things In this morning NWS GRR discussion they mention there could be a shot of record highs in parts of Michigan on January 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 06z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 NWS Hastings morning disco talks about the differences in the models as @Tomhas shown. GFS and Euro are in different worlds as far as track and impact here. “Sunday night into Monday and early Tuesday another system comes through the area this time as a deep trof or potentially a closed low ejecting out of the CO/NM area. Some early indications show the potential for a little icing with this system but it is still too early and too uncertain to include in the forecast just yet. Cluster analysis shows pretty good agreement in a deepening trof over the CO/NM border which may favor the closed low solution. Beyond that there is discrepancy in the track of the low. The track will be important in determining the precip type and amounts. Right now the EC brings a bunch of snow to the area but there is still decent spread amongst the EPS members. The GEFS continues to show considerably less snow, and the Canadian resides somewhere between the two. Needless to say this is a system that bears watching and track placement will be rather important to determine.” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: NWS Hastings morning disco talks about the differences in the models as @Tomhas shown. GFS and Euro are in different worlds as far as track and impact here. “Sunday night into Monday and early Tuesday another system comes through the area this time as a deep trof or potentially a closed low ejecting out of the CO/NM area. Some early indications show the potential for a little icing with this system but it is still too early and too uncertain to include in the forecast just yet. Cluster analysis shows pretty good agreement in a deepening trof over the CO/NM border which may favor the closed low solution. Beyond that there is discrepancy in the track of the low. The track will be important in determining the precip type and amounts. Right now the EC brings a bunch of snow to the area but there is still decent spread amongst the EPS members. The GEFS continues to show considerably less snow, and the Canadian resides somewhere between the two. Needless to say this is a system that bears watching and track placement will be rather important to determine.” I hope the Euro operational is right, I'd love to see you get buried in snow. But the GFS looks like whats happened to Nebraska over and over and over again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 man I hope this trends just a bit east...gonna destroy the trails if not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: I hope the Euro operational is right, I'd love to see you get buried in snow. But the GFS looks like whats happened to Nebraska over and over and over again. NWS Hastings has not discounted it yet, which is not like them. Usually they follow the model that shows the least snow. I’ll remain pessimistic until it gets closer. The many misses to the Northwest over the decades makes me cynical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Not the storm for this thread but just an example of the quality of the GFS. Went from this on the 00z run... To this just two runs later... For a storm that is about 24 hours out. I saw that. Hard to have any confidence in this model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Euro came in further southeast this run and flatter overall. Not as big of a north/south cut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 I'm pulling for Nebraska to get clobbered. They've earned it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Another day, another Euro run showing a ton of snow. Feels like a broken record at this point. Although I'm #TeamEuro all the way, it bears mentioning that it's kind of on its own with this track at the moment. Both the GFS and Canadian have the track way more to the NW while the ICON and UKMET are kind of in-between the two camps. Time will tell if the King gets to keep his crown, or becomes the Jester. 12z EPS shifted S/SE as well…interesting 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 12z EPS...I'll include the "appetizer" for tomorrow... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 I can't complain if this misses me to the North. The blizzard last week was pretty nice. Not that I'd be unhappy if we got buried again! Nebraska and FSD have been getting the shaft for a long time. Fun to watch regardless of where it goes 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Mega ice storm for me on the 12Z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Bismarck puts out a 75% chance of the further south and east track. I'll patiently be waiting for next week! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 2 hours ago, gabel23 said: Bismarck puts out a 75% chance of the further south and east track. I'll patiently be waiting for next week! Looks like GFS agrees with the 25% chance track. 18z not budging as it continues in the north camp. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 GEFS absolutely nailed the SLP track for our "storm" last week at this range. But the OP GFS swung wildly L and R with it's track(s), as well as failed miserably with too much qpf, and thermals were horrible. Ofc, your scenario looks much more straightforward than our bombo-genisis along a massive arctic front. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 0z GFS not budging, stays north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 20 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 0z GFS not budging, stays north. Good ol GFS had last week's north by 400mi till the day of the storm. May check a Euro run or 2 from now till Sunday, but the days of model watching are done for me. Used to be enjoyable to see it all come together 3 days out and then fine tune. It's about as good as throwing darts blind folded 3 days out these days. Hobby or not it's real close to wasting hours of time model watching these days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z Canadian with a pretty large shift to the SE. Move towards the Euro. Looks like the Canadian had quite a bit of ice also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 Another jump southeast from the 00z op Euro. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 Model Mayhem! 6z GFS at hr 123 0z Euro at hr 129 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 NWS Hastings morning disco thinks the system comes out south “Our next system comes through just after the new year late on Sunday night, and could be stronger than the current system moving through. Aloft a deep trof is expected to eject out of the southwest and bring a potent sfc low through the region. Track placement is going to be key in determining precip type and amounts. Currently the EC has us getting slammed while the GFS has us dry slotted. Looking at the global ensemble clusters, 2 of the clusters which total to 31% of the ensembles show a deepening trof with respect to the mean. One cluster totaling 32% of the ensembles is very similar to the mean which shows a deepening trof. This would indicate a more southerly track is possible where the sfc low emerges and moves up through eastern Kansas into Missouri. This situation would give us decent wrap around precip on the northwest side of the low. This also looks to be a moisture rich system as this trof is connected to an atmospheric river over the western CONUS.” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 The Euro/EPS is known to be golden inside 5 days and to see the model hold firm on the S/SE track as we get closer to the event while the others are still NW is a head scrather. Here's a comparison just to show you the difference between EPS and GEFS. 0z GEFS... 0z EPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 Am I reeling it in? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, james1976 said: Am I reeling it in? I hope so, I still need about another 50 miles to get into the real action! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 Another shift forthcoming on the 12z Euro...the blocking over CANADA is growing causing this storm to track farther south... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 Geeze, from thinking this storm is going to miss my area without any chance of seeing any snow till sometime after the 6th/7th, this storm could deliver some wrap-around snow as it gets blocked up over the GL's. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 The GGEM has been showing a secondary wave coming up from the south as we have seen happen several times this season from various storm systems. I'm starting to think this could be another case where we see it happen again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 12z Euro... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 North Texas will enjoy partly cloudy, lower 70’s this week and lower 60’s next week. No real chance for precipitation. Quiet end to the year. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z vs 00z Euro through Tuesday morning... Whoa. That looks good 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 Anyone have fzr maps from the Euro?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 53 minutes ago, Bellona said: Anyone have fzr maps from the Euro?? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: Geeze, from thinking this storm is going to miss my area without any chance of seeing any snow till sometime after the 6th/7th, this storm could deliver some wrap-around snow as it gets blocked up over the GL's. The Euro has it blocked up real good and that's the difference between it and the GFS. 12z Euro 12z GFS has the block further east over Ontario. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 .1” of rain from the GFS or 3/4” of ice and 8” of snow from the Euro here in Omaha… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: .1” of rain from the GFS or 3/4” of ice and 8” of snow from the Euro here in Omaha… It would be a lot easier to dismiss the GFS if it wasn't showing the very thing that has been going on in your area all year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 29, 2022 Report Share Posted December 29, 2022 6 hours ago, james1976 said: Am I reeling it in? Minny = $$$ this winter 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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