OmahaSnowFan Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: It would be a lot easier to dismiss the GFS if it wasn't showing the very thing that has been going on in your area all year. Exactly! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 Euro with the Omadome!! 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year. @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather 0z EPS... 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 0z EPS...this should be a nice looking comma on radar....#trackingthedefoband 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: 0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year. @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather 0z EPS... I agree and if you use the past to predict the future it's pretty clear the Euro is doing a better job especially with the block being over the top. Go back to 11/15 and you can see the storm in question in SW Neb and a blocking high over southern Canada. Current modeling from the Euro shows this same block, this time further south over ND. The reason the block is further south this time is because it's January and not November and this is a seasonal difference. The GFS does not show this block over the top. 0z Euro 6z GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: GEFS shows a 0% chance of exceeding 6 inches of snow while the EPS shows a 70-80% chance. Wonder how much longer it's going to take for the GFS and it's ensemble suite to see the light of day with this thing. Maybe by tomorrow night when the system finally enters the PNW? Either way, what an embarrassing performance it will have had for both yesterday's and Monday's systems. Pretty much going to continue writing off whatever this inferior model spits out and ride with #TeamEuro (with a splash of the Canadian on the side) all the way through the rest of the season. I wonder if they just need to tweak the GFS model as it seems to susceptible to every little change which could be just noise. There are camps on both sides, but my weather app looks like a slot machine every day it changes we have a storm then we don’t. Could be a testament to how the strong the jet is. Speaking of jet the gulf is open for business and it is targeting SE Michigan . can only imagine what snow we would get if we still had the cold air in place. Oh well . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said: Speaking of jet the gulf is open for business and it is targeting SE Michigan . can only imagine what snow we would get if we still had the cold air in place. Oh well . This is the chicken or the egg problem because if cold air was in place, the gulf moisture in that amount wouldn't be making it that far up north most of the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 The GFS and Euro are wildly different for Iowa. The faster (delayed organization) and northwest GFS produces little of anything across Iowa. The snow is northwest and the rain and storms are southeast. A big dry slot surges up through Iowa. I hate systems that do that. The Euro, on the other hand, is slower and southeast and amps it up much earlier. There is widespread significant rain across much of the state. I'm definitely rooting for that scenario. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The GFS and Euro are wildly different for Iowa. The faster (delayed organization) and northwest GFS produces little of anything across Iowa. The snow is northwest and the rain and storms are southeast. A big dry slot surges up through Iowa. I hate systems that do that. The Euro, on the other hand, is slower and southeast and amps it up much earlier. There is widespread significant rain across much of the state. I'm definitely rooting for that scenario. 12z Canadian is very similar to the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GEM fairly similar with axis placement but just fluctuating totals around a bit. It is showing more sleet and ZR than the other models, but I think it has a tendency to do that. That is why snow totals are lower on this model for Central Nebraska. This would be very problematic if this ice forecast verifies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 UK 00z -> 12z 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 17 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Dang, just now getting a chance to check out the EPS. 12z run had a nice bump in the mean for FSD, from 7.9 to 9.0. Pretty nice bump for NE too. Could this be happening?! No question it is currently trending the right direction which, honestly, it's one of the best models to have on your side at this point in the process. Run with the EPS. Most realistic model attm. OPs are over-inflated snow amounts. Not to mention track waffles. Nice to see like 1 poster excited for this storm. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro...I'll take a couple inches... @Madtown your worries should be slowly fading away...reeling in this one to start the New Year. @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather 0z EPS... For our area, I expect maybe a dusting if the Euro is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 The GFS and Euro are not that far apart with the low's pressure and location, but look at Iowa. The GFS seems ridiculously weak and dry along the low track for a pretty decent system like this one. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 12z Euro freezing rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling their weekend rentals due to trail conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. We need snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 One thing we know for sure is that Minneapolis will get another 8". 3 1 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Madtown said: Stopping in to say hi! Euro for the win? Pretty sure one could just watch that model and be just as accurate 90% of the time vs watching all the models. GFS starting its cave, Canadian a good second look at the Euro Trails are destroyed up here from the traffic and temps. Rental places canceling there weekend rentals due to conditions. Don't believe I've ever seen thatvlrt alone on the busiest weekend. We need snow! From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. Lets go EURO! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 I don't expect anything much here, cold rain. Have to slide a good 100 miles for me to get into wintry precip. Biggest snowfall I've had so far was the clipper on Sunday night, got about 3.5. Only had 2.5 with the previous. It seems more and more the bigger snows in my area are in February. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 Just now, Snowshoe said: From picture perfect winter wonderland to brown slushy crap in less than a week. Lets go EURO! Wouldn't have been that bad, but the traffic with the temps yesterday was just too much...corners are bare..groomers got em back into ok shape early this am, but man gonna be am uphill battle now for the next few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 I went from a 55 degree stroll along Lake Michigan in Port Washington WI on Thursday to returning to 6-8 inches of snowcover and 27 degrees in Brookings. Might as well double that with a nice storm. Not going to obsess over the models too much this weekend. Don't want to be set up for disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 30, 2022 Report Share Posted December 30, 2022 NWS Hastings still not sure if the southern or northern track verifies. Said if southern track pans out, it would be a memorable, classic winter Storm of ice and storm. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 At this point it’s whether we get 0.00” of any kind of moisture or a tiny bit of rain/freezing rain/or snow. When’s spring coming? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 Looks like the euro is the one who caves. At least in terms of snowfall; I can’t see the frozen precip total but looks like it’s pretty much ice, rain or dry slot for us again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 Northward-ho!!! Southern side of snow shield disappearing on the 0Z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY. I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat 0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground??? Maybe. Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks. Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period. 0z GEPS... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 North Msp to Hayward special Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 6z Euro stalling the storm over Norther Iowa looks like it's going to occlude. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 6z Euro Control and Mean. Impressive as you get on a 10:! map 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 Energy should be well sampled at 12z tomorrow morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 So the Euro was initially wrong too it looks like. I know this is ice, which is bad, but even that’s missing us to the north too. Can we just skip to spring with the warm weather, green grass, and severe storms? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 Well how we looking folks Looks like rain/snow mix here.. hoping not, but... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 50 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: So the Euro was initially wrong too it looks like. I know this is ice, which is bad, but even that’s missing us to the north too. Can we just skip to spring with the warm weather, green grass, and severe storms? I am thinking the dry slot FTW… this pattern just isn’t going to budge for us. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS another slight tick to the SE. 12z GEM fairly similar with the axis but has more QPF and looks better for Iowa than 00z. 12z ICON continues it's shift to the south, to the point where now FSD is now on the north side of the band. 12z UKMET with a slight shift to the SE and a bit more QPF. UKMET solution would be over two feet of snow with Kuchera, which models seem to be settling around 13:1. Can i see these over in the wisco area...of not no worries. Want to save them and compare to the actual event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro...FSD and S Minny reeling in a Big Dog to open up the year...close call for many NE members and interesting developments with how the Euro has been handling the secondary upper level feature that hangs back and rotates through IA/IL into INDY. I've been paying attn to this evolution bc it can bring surprises and on last night's run it is showing a sig Snow very close to DSM @ToastedRavs @Grizzcoat 0z EPS...some additional back side SN is still in the cards for us in the lower lakes...could it be enough to whiten the ground??? Maybe. Would be thrilled to see it happen along with maybe some added potential Lehs/LES for NE IL/SE WI folks. Both the GEFS/EPS members are starting to hint at a straddling HP over the GL's seeding arctic air into the mix so that can be an influencing factor come Wed/Thu period. 0z GEPS... That's some kind of wild h5 Low path. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 12z Euro freezing rain forecast. This could be horrendous if it verifies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 Sioux Falls could really get clobbered. Rain-wise, models have met in the middle for eastern Iowa. The super dry GFS and super wet Euro were both wrong. It's looking like 0.50-1.00". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 I remember when the Euro had an east/west moving system and heavy snow band and the GFS was cutting hard and was southwest/northeast with the heavy snow band. Now look at the Euro Top image: Euro 12Z today 12/31 Bottom image: Euro 12Z Thursday 12/29 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 15" at the MN home. I'd take it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 Northward Ho!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.