sholomar Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 Pretty please with sugar on top... without the dry area that the models like to predict for the Coteau/Brookings. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 NWS Hastings disco, gotta say I agree “Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact storm track. Small changes in storm track north or south will have immense impacts on specific precipitation types and amounts. Thus, magnitude of storm impacts remains unclear” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 31, 2022 Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 NWS Hastings with a tremendous disco. They can’t believe how far off GFS and Euro are, considering we are not to far out from the storm. Said in these situations, they usually go with Euro/EPS. Very concerned about icing before the snow. Worst case scenario icing could lead to tree and power line concerns. Still looking for some adjustments in the next 24 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2022 32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z GEFS a bit more to the SE and now gives FSD 7.9 inches, highest yet shown on this model. 18z GFS deterministic remains a NW outlier even among its own ensembles. Reel in the Big Dog! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 18z Euro draws Nebraskans back in. Nice. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: 18z Euro draws Nebraskans back in. Nice. Toss it. Does not agree with it's ensembles or any of the other models 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: Toss it. Does not agree with it's ensembles or any of the other models We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 I think our biggest issue in my area will be freezing rain more than snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 42 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. Bombs it out in central Iowa, 6z Euro did something similar this morning. The ensembles will be out in about 20 min lets see what they show. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Watch for 3-7 and a bit of ice for the St Paul metro. Hopefully higher totals and no ice lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 The Mean came south a little. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 0Z NAM’s look like GFS. Boo 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy New Year to everyone in the forum! I've always enjoyed this place very much. Thank you all for allowing me to be a part of it. Cheers to a great 2023! 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 00z Euro 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them .. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 0z Euro really wraps this storm up before weakening/occluding...last minute surprises? 0z EPS... @gimmesnow @Snowshoe @MKEstorm 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z GFS was the first GFS run to get into double digits for FSD. Starting to look more like the other models now. 06z GEFS mean is now a little over 10 inches, which is just about where the other ensembles are at. You look golden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z EPS has the first ensemble mean over 12 inches for FSD. 06z Euro showed 22 inches falling. Our highest daily snowfall record is 18.1 inches from 3/10/56. Your patience will be rewarded...I felt bad for you when you missed out on the Thundersnow that hit YBY a little while ago, but now you will be rewarded with a bonafide Winter Storm. This could be that storm you'll remember for a while. Good luck bud! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them .. LOL, which isn't happening this winter fyi Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Biggest snowflakes some good dollar size mixed. Happy New year everyone. ! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 12z NAM and 3km look nothing like previous runs for my area, and now look a little like the Euro. They put down ice then a good bit of snow for Central Nebraska. Last minute surprises? I think @Tom mentioned that earlier. Official forecast has ice then 1-3” of snow. NWS Hastings has this graphic of potentially more. Interesting. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Slowing down. Lots of runs left 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 HRRR just getting into range. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 NWS seems cautious going with 4-8" for MSP. Models are putting out more than that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Maybe we’ll get some thunder-boomers out of this IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT ON JANUARY 2nd, before we get the backside flurries to finish on Tuesday morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 yuck 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Moisture is off the charts with this system according to MPX. This system alone could bring the January monthly avg. First the moisture, as mentioned in previous discussions, is off the charts for this time of year. Precipitable water values in the NAEFS are in the 90th to 99th percentile and liquid QPF values in excess of what we get in a normal January let along one storm. We could see over an inch of liquid QPF from this, which is well past MSP`s January normal of 0.89 inches. This isn`t driven by outliers either as for the Twin Cities, the mode of the LREF made of the GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensembles is over an inch. Now this isn`t a nice binomial distribution as the members with less than this mode outweigh those with more. It is a little hard to buy to much into these values that are so out of climatology, so until we get closer and have some higher resolution guidance to add in it will be hard to have much more confidence. Where there is increased confidence however is where the highest QPF will occur. All the main deterministic models now put this across southern Minnesota. So we are looking at a lot of QPF, but what will it fall as? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 The UK jumped southeast quite a bit this morning. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Just got home from church. Haven’t had time to look at the 12z models yet. It seems like there must be some movement South/Southeast as I read your comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Looks like me might have some bands again that will really effect accumulations over fairly small areas. The 12z RGEM, for example, hits my area hard. Other models have this band further west or north, or not at all. Will be interesting to see the 12z Euro. That is what NWS Hastings will be going with, in my opinion, as they’ve talked about it for days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The UK jumped southeast quite a bit this morning. That is a pretty big jump south. Also NWS Hastings says the system has really slowed down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 If Brookings gets taken out of the picture I'm done following storms way ahead of time. KELO now has it all going south. https://www.keloland.com/weather/forecast/new-years-day-is-quiet-winter-storm-headlines-for-mon-tue-storm-center-am-update-sunday-january-1/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Getting close enough for a chase at least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Looks like the euro has the low in south central Iowa at hour 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 And then travels about due north from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 12z Euro A few days ago the Euro was consistently showing 1-1.5" of rain across Iowa. Now it has Cedar Rapids down to 0.40". In other words, just another run-of-the-mill winter storm that dumps 12+" of snow to the nw and a modest soak here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Sioux falls seems locked in..... I wish the la crosse and msp forecast offices the best of luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Sigh… 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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