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New Year's Day Colorado Low


Tom

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 NWS Hastings with a tremendous disco. They can’t believe how far off GFS and Euro are, considering we are not to far out from the storm. Said in these situations, they usually go with Euro/EPS. Very concerned about icing before the snow. Worst case scenario icing could lead to tree and power line concerns. Still looking for some adjustments in the next 24 hours. 

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42 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We’ll see if it is a trend or nothing when the 0z models come out. NWS keeps mentioning southward shift is possible. Who knows. 

Bombs it out in central Iowa, 6z Euro did something similar this morning.  The ensembles will be out in about 20 min lets see what they show.

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MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z GFS was the first GFS run to get into double digits for FSD. Starting to look more like the other models now. 06z GEFS mean is now a little over 10 inches, which is just about where the other ensembles are at. 

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2855200-1.png

gfs-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-2855200.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-2855200.png

You look golden 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z EPS has the first ensemble mean over 12 inches for FSD. 06z Euro showed 22 inches falling. Our highest daily snowfall record is 18.1 inches from 3/10/56.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-2941600-1.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-2941600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2876800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-2876800.png

Your patience will be rewarded...I felt bad for you when you missed out on the Thundersnow that hit YBY a little while ago, but now you will be rewarded with a bonafide Winter Storm.  This could be that storm you'll remember for a while.  Good luck bud!

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

MSP is over 33" for the season in snowfall. Long ways to go , but another 10" or so puts them well on the way to snowiest season/winter on record. (98.6 ) MSP seems to be bullseye this winter. Don't expect any changes until a lasting snow belt develops S of them ..

LOL, which isn't happening this winter fyi

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z NAM and 3km look nothing like previous runs for my area, and now look a little like the Euro. They put down ice then a good bit of snow for Central Nebraska. Last minute surprises?  I think @Tom mentioned that earlier. Official forecast has ice then 1-3” of snow. NWS Hastings has this graphic of potentially more. Interesting. A8D10209-48E1-4D19-949B-2A4AAF4232D7.thumb.png.3d627417c3cbd8649491d709c39a7bcb.png

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Moisture is off the charts with this system according to MPX. This system alone could bring the January monthly avg.

First the moisture, as mentioned in previous discussions, is off the charts for this time of year. Precipitable water values in the NAEFS are in the 90th to 99th percentile and liquid QPF values in excess of what we get in a normal January let along one storm. We could see over an inch of liquid QPF from this, which is well past MSP`s January normal of 0.89 inches. This isn`t driven by outliers either as for the Twin Cities, the mode of the LREF made of the GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensembles is over an inch. Now this isn`t a nice binomial distribution as the members with less than this mode outweigh those with more. It is a little hard to buy to much into these values that are so out of climatology, so until we get closer and have some higher resolution guidance to add in it will be hard to have much more confidence. Where there is increased confidence however is where the highest QPF will occur. All the main deterministic models now put this across southern Minnesota. So we are looking at a lot of QPF, but what will it fall as?

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Looks like me might have some bands again that will really effect accumulations over fairly small areas. The 12z RGEM, for example, hits my area hard. Other models have this band further west or north, or not at all. Will be interesting to see the 12z Euro. That is what NWS  Hastings will be going with, in my opinion, as they’ve talked about it for days. image.thumb.png.56f107755bf3ca55e8d92de51a7099c8.png

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12z Euro

A few days ago the Euro was consistently showing 1-1.5" of rain across Iowa.  Now it has Cedar Rapids down to 0.40".  In other words, just another run-of-the-mill winter storm that dumps 12+" of snow to the nw and a modest soak here.

image.thumb.png.08d8579c9ab9046b9da887d17d23c36e.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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