Madtown Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 This thing pops the bed as it gets over this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, Madtown said: This thing pops the bed as it gets over this way Occluding storms are very unpredictable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, gosaints said: Occluding storms are very unpredictable Yeah we learned that in SE MI with the storm occlusion at the pre Christmas storm. It shifted east of us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sholomar Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 NWS is not backing down... Aberdeen office just issued winter storm warnings. They seem to think Watertown is getting more snow than the latest models suggest. Local point forecast says we are getting a foot now which is up 4 inches from this morning. Still looking good. Ice storm warning just issued for Sioux City a minute ago. Looking good for both Sioux Falls and Brookings. I will stay optimistic. The "bullseye" area hopefully hits between these two towns to share the fun. My mother is located on an acreage east of Madison in Lake County SD ... if they end up getting a foot or more she'll be stuck at home a couple of days. Her forecast... https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=195&y=75&site=fsd&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=195&map_y=75 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Winter Storm Warning here. More details coming 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Winter Storm Warning here. More details coming Interesting. Wasn’t even in a watch now go to a warning. Ice storm warning also out. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Interesting. Wasn’t even in a watch now go to a warning. Ice storm warning also out. Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Upgraded to a warning now for 5-8" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Lol. The GFS is very confused model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 53 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm. Ugg remember that real well. I was going to college in Lincoln and we got mostly rain from that storm. That ice out west that year was an 1”+ thick. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 This would be horrendous. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 Uggg I hate ice. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 1, 2023 Report Share Posted January 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: FSD discussion mentions possibility of thundersnow!! And a potential Blizzard Warning looming on the horizon. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: This will be the period of greatest impacts from this significant winter storm. Models have come into better agreement on the track of the system, though still some slight differences that could ultimately have a large impact on precip types and amounts. Broad lift from the warm advection and advancing upper level low Monday evening, is expected to become more focused into an intense snowfall band by late evening into Tuesday morning. This all in response to a TroWAL developing into the Tri-State area, with coincident mid-level frontogenesis which is topped at times by weak instability/negative EPV*. This should not only support a narrowing snow band, but also snowfall rates of 1-2 inches/hour, as indicated by HREF probabilities. On top of that, some solutions show upright instability with low probabilities of greater than 100J/kg CAPE as far north as I-90 Monday night. All that to say we could see another period of thundersnow with this storm, which would ramp snowfall rates even higher. This most likely would occur in the midnight to noon time frame on Tuesday, with the large majority of the snow expected to fall within this window. In addition to the snow, we continue to see the potential for at least a period of stronger northerly winds, also during the Monday night-Tuesday time frame, though confidence on speeds is still on lower than confidence in the very heavy snowfall. In either case, blowing snow looks to be a significant concern, but confidence is not quite high enough to push out a Blizzard Warning just yet. Unfortunately, those that do not see significant snowfall amounts will likely see significant icing due to freezing rain. Portions of eastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa and far southern Minnesota look to be on track for this to occur, as the warm nose aloft lifts as far north as I-90 Monday night before colder air pushes eastward Tuesday morning. Given the amount of moisture with this system is near the peak of climatology for early January, this could lead to a major ice storm for parts of the region. Congrats, that would be cool to see thunder snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 18z Euro. Much will depend on amount of ice and changeover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 78* tomorrow and 75% chance of rain. Heck of a January! 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Nam warmer in these parts should help with zr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Whoa. That would be devastating for power lines and trees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 That ice in NE looks real. Outside of the western flank of the storm the 0z meso models looking less impressive as far as snow goes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Now the RGEM comes in the slightly cooler tomorrow night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z RGEM looking better on snow totals and even more importantly, lessens ice amounts overall. Compare the to what the NAM shows and we realize real quick how difficult it is to work at the NWS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Can someone keep an eye on the Warm Sector? Severe storms likely down there. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Rain-wise, this thing continues to dry up for my area. A few of the short-term models this evening have me down to only about 0.25". The Euro had 1.5" a few days ago. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Whoa the GFS has some of those warnings looking very nervous 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Model mayhem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Lol GFS 2 inches in Mankato and the GGEM with 18 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 America versus the foreigners. I am losing faith in America is the NAM and the GFS botch this thing this bad 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Oh Canada. 0z Canadian crush job for Central Nebraska. This would be unexpected and welcomed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Ukie in the Canadian camp minus the crazy totals 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z Euro. While the band axis hasn't really changed there is definitely a shift to having the heavier QPF over S Central SD/N Central NE instead of over the Tri-State area. Still a crazy good dumping though. Yup and the nose of 12+ thru the TC. Could be an interesting Monday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 7 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Can someone keep an eye on the Warm Sector? Severe storms likely down there. 5 hours ago, Andie said: Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. The warm sector of this storm could have a violent side as a warm front will lift into eastern Oklahoma and a dry line will form in eastern Texas. A rough night ahead for the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley as this storm will produce yet another severe weather outbreak for this region. @Andie and @Iceresistance will be close to the initiation zone and @Black Holeand @OKwx2k4 will need to have an eye to the sky this evening. I would expect an up grade in advisory for the Ark-La-Tex region to a moderate risk. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 This storm is really getting blocked up and not really cutting like the models were showing days ago. It appears the closed H5 ULL will be tracking very slowly due West/East across IA into IN/OH by Thu. I still expect to see some surprises and wherever that SLP pivots and spins will dump snow just to the NW. 0z EPS...the Hudson Bay Ridge has really placed itself perfectly over the top of this storm... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 0z EPS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, Tom said: 0z EPS... Gonna really be a nowcast for the MSP forecast area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z Euro. It's pretty much locked in now with only some fluctuations on where the heaviest totals within the band reside, which will really just be a nowcast/radar scenario to watch as it unfolds. Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime. Buckle up! You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 This storm so far has dumped 2+ Feet in Park City right...the Sierra Mtn's up near Tahoe got another storm to dump 20-50". How many storms has this been? Geeze, what a freakin' winter they are seeing out west! I think I posted some videos back in Aug when I was at Park City at this place "The Canyons Village"...I'd love to be there right about now! It probably magical with the fine powder, aka, Champaign Powder! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 67 this morning with humidity at 90%. Heavy overcast. No action yet just a grim morning generally. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 It's amazing how far apart some of these models as it relates to sensible weather with this system 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 2, 2023 Report Share Posted January 2, 2023 12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Look at the difference for Central Nebraska between tonight's 00z and last night's 00z run. It’s like the GFS sneezed! Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.