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New Year's Day Colorado Low


Tom

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NWS is not backing down... Aberdeen office just issued winter storm warnings. They seem to think Watertown is getting more snow than the latest models suggest.

Local point forecast says we are getting a foot now which is up 4 inches from this morning. Still looking good.

Ice storm warning just issued for Sioux City a minute ago.

Looking good for both Sioux Falls and Brookings. I will stay optimistic. :) The "bullseye" area hopefully hits between these two towns to share the fun. My mother is located on an acreage east of Madison in Lake County SD ... if they end up getting a foot or more she'll be stuck at home a couple of days.

Her forecast...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=195&y=75&site=fsd&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=195&map_y=75

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10 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Interesting. Wasn’t even in a watch now go to a warning. Ice storm warning also out.

Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm.Β 

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53 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Reading the warning information, the ice could be crippling. We had a devastating ice storm here Dec. 29-30, 2006. Were without power for a week and didn’t go back to school until mid January. I started to have flashbacks to that storm.Β 

Ugg remember that real well. I was going to college in Lincoln and we got mostly rain from that storm. That ice out west that year was an 1”+ thick.Β 

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16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD discussion mentions possibility of thundersnow!! And a potential Blizzard Warning looming on the horizon.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: This will be the period of greatest impacts
from this significant winter storm. Models have come into better
agreement on the track of the system, though still some slight
differences that could ultimately have a large impact on precip
types and amounts. Broad lift from the warm advection and advancing
upper level low Monday evening, is expected to become more focused
into an intense snowfall band by late evening into Tuesday morning.
This all in response to a TroWAL developing into the Tri-State area,
with coincident mid-level frontogenesis which is topped at times by
weak instability/negative EPV*. This should not only support a
narrowing snow band, but also snowfall rates of 1-2 inches/hour,
as indicated by HREF probabilities. On top of that, some solutions
show upright instability with low probabilities of greater than
100J/kg CAPE as far north as I-90 Monday night. All that to say we
could see another period of thundersnow with this storm, which would
ramp snowfall rates even higher. This most likely would occur in the
midnight to noon time frame on Tuesday, with the large majority of
the snow expected to fall within this window.

In addition to the snow, we continue to see the potential for at
least a period of stronger northerly winds, also during the Monday
night-Tuesday time frame, though confidence on speeds is still on
lower than confidence in the very heavy snowfall. In either case,
blowing snow looks to be a significant concern, but confidence is
not quite high enough to push out a Blizzard Warning just yet.

Unfortunately, those that do not see significant snowfall amounts
will likely see significant icing due to freezing rain. Portions of
eastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa and far southern Minnesota look
to be on track for this to occur, as the warm nose aloft lifts as
far north as I-90 Monday night before colder air pushes eastward
Tuesday morning. Given the amount of moisture with this system is
near the peak of climatology for early January, this could lead to a
major ice storm for parts of the region.

Congrats, that would be cool to see thunder snow!Β 

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78* tomorrow and 75% chance of rain. Β 
Heck of a January!🀠

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

β€œIfΒ I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and liveΒ in Hell.” Β Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Rain-wise, this thing continues to dry up for my area.Β  A few of the short-term models this evening have me down to only about 0.25".Β Β πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈΒ  The Euro had 1.5" a few days ago.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Β  Β  Β  '21-22: 27.1"Β  Β  Β  '20-21: 52.5"Β  Β  Β  '19-20: 36.2"Β  Β  Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β  Β  Β Β '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow.Β 
Β 

578E3381-E544-45DE-8B65-1765A3AA6A7C.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

β€œIfΒ I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and liveΒ in Hell.” Β Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro. While the band axis hasn't really changed there is definitely a shift to having the heavier QPF over S Central SD/N Central NE instead of over the Tri-State area. Still a crazy good dumping though.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2909200.png

Yup and the nose of 12+ thru the TC. Could be an interesting Monday night.

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7 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Can someone keep an eye on the Warm Sector? Severe storms likely down there.Β 

Β 

5 hours ago, Andie said:

Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow.Β 
Β 

578E3381-E544-45DE-8B65-1765A3AA6A7C.jpeg

The warm sector of this storm could have a violent side as a warm front will lift into eastern Oklahoma and a dry line will form in eastern Texas.Β  A rough night ahead for the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley as this storm will produce yet another severe weather outbreak for this region.Β  @AndieΒ and @IceresistanceΒ will be close to the initiation zone and @Black Holeand @OKwx2k4Β will need to have an eye to the sky this evening.Β  I would expect an up grade in advisory for the Ark-La-Tex region to a moderate risk.

1672660800-01672638360.png

1672660800-01672638360.png

1672660800-01672638360.png

Β 

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This storm is really getting blocked up and not really cutting like the models were showing days ago.Β  It appears the closed H5 ULL will be tracking very slowly due West/East across IA into IN/OH by Thu.Β  I still expect to see some surprises and wherever that SLP pivots and spins will dump snow just to the NW.

0z EPS...the Hudson Bay Ridge has really placed itself perfectly over the top of this storm...

eps-fast_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

image.gif

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro. It's pretty much locked in now with only some fluctuations on where the heaviest totals within the band reside, which will really just be a nowcast/radar scenario to watch as it unfolds.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2963200-1.png

Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime.Β  Buckle up!Β  You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV.

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This storm so far has dumped 2+ Feet in Park City right...the Sierra Mtn's up near Tahoe got another storm to dump 20-50".Β  How many storms has this been?Β  Geeze, what a freakin' winter they are seeing out west!

Β 

I think I posted some videos back in Aug when I was at Park City at this place "The Canyons Village"...I'd love to be there right about now!Β  It probably magical with the fine powder, aka, Champaign Powder!

Screen Shot 2023-01-02 at 5.51.33 AM.png

Β 

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67 this morning with humidity at 90%.Β 
Heavy overcast.Β 
No action yet just a grim morning generally. Β 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

β€œIfΒ I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and liveΒ in Hell.” Β Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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