New Year's Day Colorado Low

[hawkstwelve]

The GEM is pretty snowy and further SE than the GFS by a fair amount. Comparing it to the 18z Euro, they actually agree pretty dang well with the general axis and snow amounts. GFS is on its own again.

It wouldn't be the first time the GFS flubbed a storm within 24 hours, even within just the past week.

[gosaints]

America versus the foreigners.  I am losing faith in America is the NAM and the GFS botch this thing this bad 

[CentralNebWeather]

Oh Canada. 0z Canadian crush job for Central Nebraska. This would be unexpected and welcomed. 

[hawkstwelve]

03z RAP ain't half bad.

[gosaints]

Ukie in the Canadian camp minus the crazy totals

[Andie]

Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. 
 

[hawkstwelve]

00z Euro. While the band axis hasn't really changed there is definitely a shift to having the heavier QPF over S Central SD/N Central NE instead of over the Tri-State area. Still a crazy good dumping though.

[james1976]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro. While the band axis hasn't really changed there is definitely a shift to having the heavier QPF over S Central SD/N Central NE instead of over the Tri-State area. Still a crazy good dumping though.

Yup and the nose of 12+ thru the TC. Could be an interesting Monday night.

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Can someone keep an eye on the Warm Sector? Severe storms likely down there. 

 

5 hours ago, Andie said:

Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. 
 

The warm sector of this storm could have a violent side as a warm front will lift into eastern Oklahoma and a dry line will form in eastern Texas.  A rough night ahead for the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley as this storm will produce yet another severe weather outbreak for this region.  @Andie and @Iceresistance will be close to the initiation zone and @Black Holeand @OKwx2k4 will need to have an eye to the sky this evening.  I would expect an up grade in advisory for the Ark-La-Tex region to a moderate risk.

 

[Tom]

This storm is really getting blocked up and not really cutting like the models were showing days ago.  It appears the closed H5 ULL will be tracking very slowly due West/East across IA into IN/OH by Thu.  I still expect to see some surprises and wherever that SLP pivots and spins will dump snow just to the NW.

0z EPS...the Hudson Bay Ridge has really placed itself perfectly over the top of this storm...

[Tom]

0z EPS...

[gosaints]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...

Gonna really be a nowcast for the MSP forecast area.

[hawkstwelve]

06z Euro. It's pretty much locked in now with only some fluctuations on where the heaviest totals within the band reside, which will really just be a nowcast/radar scenario to watch as it unfolds.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro. It's pretty much locked in now with only some fluctuations on where the heaviest totals within the band reside, which will really just be a nowcast/radar scenario to watch as it unfolds.

Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime.  Buckle up!  You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV.

[Tom]

This storm so far has dumped 2+ Feet in Park City right...the Sierra Mtn's up near Tahoe got another storm to dump 20-50".  How many storms has this been?  Geeze, what a freakin' winter they are seeing out west!

 

I think I posted some videos back in Aug when I was at Park City at this place "The Canyons Village"...I'd love to be there right about now!  It probably magical with the fine powder, aka, Champaign Powder!

 

[hawkstwelve]

60-70% chance of 12+ inches on the 06z EPS. This is the largest area it's shown for these percentages.

[Andie]

67 this morning with humidity at 90%. 
Heavy overcast. 
No action yet just a grim morning generally.  

[gosaints]

It's amazing how far apart some of these models as it relates to sensible weather with this system

[WinterSquall23]

12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Look at the difference for Central Nebraska between tonight's 00z and last night's 00z run.

It’s like the GFS sneezed!  Wow!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.

[james1976]

Did this thing slow down? My warning has been pushed back 6 hours.

[gosaints]

5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Did this thing slow down? My warning has been pushed back 6 hours.

Yes.  It's usa vs the world up there.  Both Canadians are 12+

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime.  Buckle up!  You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV.

Preview of @hawkstwelves place come Wed morning

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro. A bit less on the SW side of the band in Nebraska and a bit more on the NE side of the band in Minnesota. Otherwise, no huge changes.

[james1976]

41 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro. A bit less on the SW side of the band in Nebraska and a bit more on the NE side of the band in Minnesota. Otherwise, no huge changes.

Wider area of 9+ for Eastern MN into NW WI. Wow. Go Euro!

[james1976]

My warning went from 4-8 from this morning's update to 5-9 inches with the latest update.

[gabel23]

Man riding the fine line for my area. Temps are gonna play a huge role. Currently at 33.3 degrees I’m hoping I don’t get any higher than that.

[gosaints]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Man riding the fine line for my area. Temps are gonna play a huge role. Currently at 33.3 degrees I’m hoping I don’t get any higher than that.

What's your dew point?

[gabel23]

7 minutes ago, gosaints said:

What's your dew point?

32.4

[gabel23]

Freezing rain confidence just to my north. 

[hawkstwelve]

We've had light flurries earlier this morning but now we have fat, wet flakes coming down at a pretty good clip. Beautiful out there. So it begins!

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro. A bit less on the SW side of the band in Nebraska and a bit more on the NE side of the band in Minnesota. Otherwise, no huge changes.

This would be a nice surprise

[Mr Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.

Not enough snow there.

[hawkstwelve]

Now that the storm is underway and we will start turning towards mesoscale/radar analysis instead of models, figured it would be a good time for....

MODEL BATTLE ROUND 3

All amounts were taken using the 12z run on 1/2/23 except for the HRRR which is using 18z run. All amounts are using Kuchera ratio and are the totals through the entire storm (Friday morning). I'll check all the final totals Friday AM and we'll see which model wins.

12Z GFS
FSD: 11
MSP: 7.3
EAR: 6.7

12Z EURO
FSD: 17.4
MSP: 11
EAR: 6.8

12Z GEM
FSD: 15.7
MSP: 17.8
EAR: 6.2

12Z ICON
FSD: 14
MSP: 14
EAR: 1.56

12Z UKMET
FSD: 18
MSP: 11.9
EAR: 5.7

18Z HRRR
FSD: 7.6
MSP: 7.3
EAR: 1.1

12Z HRDPS
FSD: 20.6
MSP: 10.1
EAR: 4.9

12Z RGEM
FSD: 15.4
MSP: 11.1
EAR: 6.2

[Bryan1117]

5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.

Nothing beats a cold January rain . Guess we should be thankful for the moisture though.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Already .02” of a cold 35 degree rain has fallen.

Now to wait for the tstorms in Kansas to try and make it here.

[CentralNebWeather]

[gabel23]

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I seen that! It’s about to get crazy for us! Am I reading that right ice then 4-8” of snow???

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I seen that! It’s about to get crazy for us! Am I reading that right ice then 4-8” of snow???

That seems high for us, unless there is convection with a heavy snow band. 

[gabel23]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

That seems high for us, unless there is convection with a heavy snow band. 

I read it further, basically they are saying if cold air moves in faster we get more snow than ice. I’m hoping that happens. Currently sitting at 32.0 and .20” of rain. I’ll take the precip 

[james1976]

I have been bumped up again! Now calling for 7-10". They've also pushed the timing way back again....now 2am Tue to 6pm Wed. Also currently light snow already with a dusting.

[mlgamer]

Hard to believe but this storm has produced a tornado watch only three counties south of me...on Jan 2 no less.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Heavy combination of every type of frozen precipitation you can think of. Very nasty. County Sheriff reporting accidents. Why anyone is out is a mystery with all the warnings issued about no travel advised. When this switches to snow will be important to snowfall amounts. 

[hawkstwelve]

2 inches of snow so far. Winter storm warning upped from 5-11 inches to 6-15. 18z GFS looks to finally have fallen in line and now is among the higher models. Go figure. 18z RGEM had 22 inches falling for FSD. Looks like the Euro is around 17 inches.

[Andie]

Currently 71 

Humidity 64%. 

Pretty sticky right now. Thankfully it’s not hot.  Odd for January. 
 

 

[hawkstwelve]

It is straight up dumping snow. We are up to 3.25 inches already. Most models showed us getting between 1-3 inches by midnight. Latest zone forecast update about 10 mins ago now calling for 10-14 inches, up from 8-12.

[OKwx2k4]

@Iceresistance, Thanks for the shoutout on the warm sector over here. Looking like a tense night for me. 

Tornadic storm in Sequoyah County now.

[james1976]

Pushing a foot now on 18z Euro!

[Bellona]

Getting some sleet here in Waterloo. Nothing accumulating we are sitting at 33 at my house.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, james1976 said:

I have been bumped up again! Now calling for 7-10". They've also pushed the timing way back again....now 2am Tue to 6pm Wed. Also currently light snow already with a dusting.

Ofc, it's MSP - enjoy!