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New Year's Day Colorado Low


Tom
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The GEM is pretty snowy and further SE than the GFS by a fair amount. Comparing it to the 18z Euro, they actually agree pretty dang well with the general axis and snow amounts. GFS is on its own again.

It wouldn't be the first time the GFS flubbed a storm within 24 hours, even within just the past week.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. 
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro. While the band axis hasn't really changed there is definitely a shift to having the heavier QPF over S Central SD/N Central NE instead of over the Tri-State area. Still a crazy good dumping though.

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Yup and the nose of 12+ thru the TC. Could be an interesting Monday night.

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7 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Can someone keep an eye on the Warm Sector? Severe storms likely down there. 

 

5 hours ago, Andie said:

Interesting collision over Texas tomorrow. 
 

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The warm sector of this storm could have a violent side as a warm front will lift into eastern Oklahoma and a dry line will form in eastern Texas.  A rough night ahead for the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley as this storm will produce yet another severe weather outbreak for this region.  @Andie and @Iceresistance will be close to the initiation zone and @Black Holeand @OKwx2k4 will need to have an eye to the sky this evening.  I would expect an up grade in advisory for the Ark-La-Tex region to a moderate risk.

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This storm is really getting blocked up and not really cutting like the models were showing days ago.  It appears the closed H5 ULL will be tracking very slowly due West/East across IA into IN/OH by Thu.  I still expect to see some surprises and wherever that SLP pivots and spins will dump snow just to the NW.

0z EPS...the Hudson Bay Ridge has really placed itself perfectly over the top of this storm...

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro. It's pretty much locked in now with only some fluctuations on where the heaviest totals within the band reside, which will really just be a nowcast/radar scenario to watch as it unfolds.

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Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime.  Buckle up!  You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV.

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This storm so far has dumped 2+ Feet in Park City right...the Sierra Mtn's up near Tahoe got another storm to dump 20-50".  How many storms has this been?  Geeze, what a freakin' winter they are seeing out west!

 

I think I posted some videos back in Aug when I was at Park City at this place "The Canyons Village"...I'd love to be there right about now!  It probably magical with the fine powder, aka, Champaign Powder!

Screen Shot 2023-01-02 at 5.51.33 AM.png

 

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67 this morning with humidity at 90%. 
Heavy overcast. 
No action yet just a grim morning generally.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.🙄

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Hopefully you'll see it puking right when daylight emerges tomorrow and enjoy a full blown winter storm during the daytime.  Buckle up!  You'll make up for what you didn't see back in NOV.

Preview of @hawkstwelves place come Wed morning

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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41 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro. A bit less on the SW side of the band in Nebraska and a bit more on the NE side of the band in Minnesota. Otherwise, no huge changes.

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2930800.png

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Wider area of 9+ for Eastern MN into NW WI. Wow. Go Euro!

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4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.🙄

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Not enough snow there.

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Now that the storm is underway and we will start turning towards mesoscale/radar analysis instead of models, figured it would be a good time for....

MODEL BATTLE ROUND 3

All amounts were taken using the 12z run on 1/2/23 except for the HRRR which is using 18z run. All amounts are using Kuchera ratio and are the totals through the entire storm (Friday morning). I'll check all the final totals Friday AM and we'll see which model wins.

12Z GFS
FSD: 11
MSP: 7.3
EAR: 6.7

12Z EURO
FSD: 17.4
MSP: 11
EAR: 6.8

12Z GEM
FSD: 15.7
MSP: 17.8
EAR: 6.2

12Z ICON
FSD: 14
MSP: 14
EAR: 1.56

12Z UKMET
FSD: 18
MSP: 11.9
EAR: 5.7

18Z HRRR
FSD: 7.6
MSP: 7.3
EAR: 1.1

12Z HRDPS
FSD: 20.6
MSP: 10.1
EAR: 4.9

12Z RGEM
FSD: 15.4
MSP: 11.1
EAR: 6.2

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Interesting how the 12Z models have shifted everything back northwest…

South central SoDak and north central Nebraska seems to be the target now.

Meanwhile I’m in my 3rd winter weather advisory this season for less than 1” of snow and a light coating of ice.🙄

Nothing beats a cold January rain ☹️. Guess we should be thankful for the moisture though.

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Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

That seems high for us, unless there is convection with a heavy snow band. 

I read it further, basically they are saying if cold air moves in faster we get more snow than ice. I’m hoping that happens. Currently sitting at 32.0 and .20” of rain. I’ll take the precip 

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Hard to believe but this storm has produced a tornado watch only three counties south of me...on Jan 2 no less.

 

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  • 22-23 Total Snowfall: 5.2" as of 01/27/23.
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  • House specialty: snow at night with low rates!
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2 inches of snow so far. Winter storm warning upped from 5-11 inches to 6-15. 18z GFS looks to finally have fallen in line and now is among the higher models. Go figure. 18z RGEM had 22 inches falling for FSD. Looks like the Euro is around 17 inches.

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ecmwf-deterministic-mw-total_snow_kuchera-2974000.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Currently 71 

Humidity 64%. 

Pretty sticky right now. Thankfully it’s not hot.  Odd for January. 
 

 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5 hours ago, james1976 said:

I have been bumped up again! Now calling for 7-10". They've also pushed the timing way back again....now 2am Tue to 6pm Wed. Also currently light snow already with a dusting.

Ofc, it's MSP - enjoy!

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 16.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 10.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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