Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

[TheBigOne]

Well, if a Nino is a sure thing, I want a big one.

 

Jim, are you ***sure*** you're not letting your negativity get the best of you and ENSO right now? You do tend get a little blue between MAR and JUL, but I can't remember you ever being this defeated.

 

I thought we did OK this winter. I had about 20 inches of snow and a couple of really nice to runs of below freezing days. Although, Eugene, Albany, and Corvallis did better.

Only four inches in downtown Silverton of curbside snow recorded.  The snow didn't even go past the curbline!   Not even enough to get the snow ploughs and gritters out till Saturday night!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only four inches in downtown Silverton of curbside snow recorded.  The snow didn't even go past the curbline!   Not even enough to get the snow ploughs and gritters out till Saturday night!

 

It definitely snowed more than 4" in Silverton in February. 

[TheBigOne]

What was the amount?    At our house is was about 6-7 inches and how come there wasn't any damage with the snow storm anywhere?   The power didn't even flicker and I was expecting power issues like with the ice storms we have had.  

 

I am actually surprised at the lack of tree damage the Feb storms gave as many trees had huge branches that were leaning.

 

About the Super Nino.   Is it weird to have it develop during the Spring instead of fall/winter?  Would that alter our summer into uncharted territory perhaps?

[snow_wizard]

What was the amount?    At our house is was about 6-7 inches and how come there wasn't any damage with the snow storm anywhere?   The power didn't even flicker and I was expecting power issues like with the ice storms we have had.  

 

I am actually surprised at the lack of tree damage the Feb storms gave as many trees had huge branches that were leaning.

 

About the Super Nino.   Is it weird to have it develop during the Spring instead of fall/winter?  Would that alter our summer into uncharted territory perhaps?

It's pretty normal for major Ninos to begin in the spring. I'm pretty suspicious of the suddenness of this though. I'm thinking it could be a very early peak event like 2012. There is already cold water showing up on the subsurface maps behind the Kelvin wave. The warm water is going to surface when the atmosphere is in an anti El Nino mode so I think a major Nino is unlikely.

[Phil]

Top QBO - Solar analogs for next winter are 1965-66 and 1968-69. There are some eerie similarities there.

 

The 1957-58 analog is beginning to look like a no-go after the recent easterly pulsing/lowering at the mesopause..which will precede a flip in the SAO, and QBO.

[snow_wizard]

Top QBO - Solar analogs for next winter are 1965-66 and 1968-69. There are some eerie similarities there.

 

The 1957-58 analog is beginning to look like a no-go after the recent easterly pulsing/lowering at the mesopause..which will precede a flip in the SAO, and QBO.

Both of those were good El Nino winters here. I hesitate to be very hopeful about next winter though.

[Phil]

Winters of 1965-66 and 1968-69 were very similar in terms of the QBO, SAO, Solar, ENSO, and AAM components. The winter of 2014-15 should feature all of the same dynamics. The only wild card is the Sun..if the Sun goes nuts it could ruin things.

 

However, the fact that they were very similar supplies a higher level of confidence that 2014-15 will follow in lockstep, at least to an extent..

 

Almost scary how similar they are..2014-15 could be a high confidence forecast:

 

1965-66:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/NcrcvR.jpg

 

1968-69:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/4Tu4Fj.jpg

[Phil]

I'm trying to act subdued, but I'm actually bullish on 2014-15. People tend to weight ENSO much too heavily.

 

Arguably, solar and stratosphere-mesosphere forcings are just as important..take 2010-11 as an example. Strong La Niña with a very low TAAM..hence a lot of warm outlooks for the central/eastern US. However, the Solar-Stratospheric forcings won the day. The Sun totally finger banged the tropical pacific.

 

The 2013-14 winter is another good example...why was the Rossby/EAAM regime so stable? You guessed it.

[Guest Monty67]

Winters of 1965-66 and 1968-69 were very similar in terms of the QBO, SAO, Solar, ENSO, and AAM components. The winter of 2014-15 should feature all of the same dynamics. The only wild card is the Sun..if the Sun goes nuts it could ruin things.

 

However, the fact that they were very similar supplies a higher level of confidence that 2014-15 will follow in lockstep, at least to an extent..

 

Almost scary how similar they are..2014-15 could be a high confidence forecast:

 

1965-66:

 

 

1968-69:

 

Both of those winters were massive snow years up here, 76" and 108" respectively.

[snow_wizard]

I'm trying to act subdued, but I'm actually bullish on 2014-15. People tend to weight ENSO much too heavily.

 

Arguably, solar and stratosphere-mesosphere forcings are just as important..take 2010-11 as an example. Strong La Niña with a very low TAAM..hence a lot of warm outlooks for the central/eastern US. However, the Solar-Stratospheric forcings won the day. The Sun totally finger banged the tropical pacific.

 

The 2013-14 winter is another good example...why was the Rossby/EAAM regime so stable? You guessed it.

You do offer us some hope for next winter. I would think the sun should begin to drop off sharply later in the year, but that remains to be seen I guess. The all important AP index has been very low with this cycle in spite of the recent spike in sunspots.

 

I sure hope that at least one of my last few winters in this area will be decent.

[weather girl]

You do offer us some hope for next winter. I would think the sun should begin to drop off sharply later in the year, but that remains to be seen I guess. The all important AP index has been very low with this cycle in spite of the recent spike in sunspots.I sure hope that at least one of my last few winters in this area will be decent.

You're going to move??? I guess it makes sense. Are you headed for the land of the frozen tundra?

[Phil]

You're going to move??? I guess it makes sense. Are you headed for the land of the frozen tundra?

He wants to move east of the Cascades but stay in WA. Though I think he'd enjoy Maine or Michigan more, as far as climate and home prices go..

[Jesse]

He wants to move east of the Cascades but stay in WA. Though I think he'd enjoy Maine or Michigan more, as far as climate and home prices go..

Aren't you the guy who was planning to move to Chelan? That's in Eastern WA.

[Phil]

Aren't you the guy who was planning to move to Chelan? That's in Eastern WA.

Yes, but I'm not Jim.

 

The summers in Chelan can get hot/dry at times. I like dry heat, but I'm pretty sure Jim would prefer a cooler, crispier summer w/o the clouds and drizzle.

 

I'm not moving to Michigan or Maine due to their consistently harsh winters. But they're great if you love snow and hate summer heat.

[snow_wizard]

Yes, but I'm not Jim.

 

The summers in Chelan can get hot/dry at times. I like dry heat, but I'm pretty sure Jim would prefer a cooler, crispier summer w/o the clouds and drizzle.

 

I'm not moving to Michigan or Maine due to their consistently harsh winters. But they're great if you love snow and hate summer heat.

I don't mind the dry heat too much. The climate in Central WA is pretty awesome overall. The nights are cool most of the time in the summer even when the days are hot. Spring is worlds better than it is here. I have grown to really hate spring around here. Endless gloom much of the time.

[Deweydog]

I don't mind the dry heat too much. The climate in Central WA is pretty awesome overall. The nights are cool most of the time in the summer even when the days are hot. Spring is worlds better than it is here. I have grown to really hate spring around here. Endless gloom much of the time.

 

Actually, you'd be surprised how easily things can get held up other there during heat patterns.  Lows typically bottom out really quickly around 5:00-6:00 and recover incredibly quickly.  It's not unusual to be up around 80 by 10:00 even on days that top out only in the 90's.  

[snow_wizard]

Actually, you'd be surprised how easily things can get held up other there during heat patterns.  Lows typically bottom out really quickly around 5:00-6:00 and recover incredibly quickly.  It's not unusual to be up around 80 by 10:00 even on days that top out only in the 90's.

True. I'm sure there are a fair number of days each year that are too hot overall for my taste, but most of the year is pretty amazing. I did live between Cle Elum and Blewett Pass for a couple of years so I know the routine. I was lucky to be over there in 1981-82 which was a very solid winter. I do remember it being awfully hot in August 1981 though. That month was historic for number of 100+ days in Yakima if I recall.

[weather girl]

Yes, but I'm not Jim.

The summers in Chelan can get hot/dry at times. I like dry heat, but I'm pretty sure Jim would prefer a cooler, crispier summer w/o the clouds and drizzle.

I'm not moving to Michigan or Maine due to their consistently harsh winters. But they're great if you love snow and hate summer heat.

Harsh winters for sure---great if you're in for that sort of thing. It would totally work for Jim. I have no way of knowing, but I've heard Michigan summers are no picnic, though. Mostly due to the humidity, I think.

[Phil]

Harsh winters for sure---great if you're in for that sort of thing. It would totally work for Jim. I have no way of knowing, but I've heard Michigan summers are no picnic, though. Mostly due to the humidity, I think.

I think the city of Houghton MI would be a dream for Jim, ranked as one of the top 100 small towns in America: http://www.cityofhoughton.com

 

Trees are very much like the PNW, it's basically a peninsula that sticks out onto Lake Superior. The snowfall average is over 200" with frequent lake-effect blizzards, and the summer days rarely get past 75 degrees. Plus they get big thunderstorms in the Summer.

 

I've experienced lake effect snowfall, and I've gotta say, there's nothing like it. You can literally see snowfall rates topping 6"/hr on a semi regular basis.

[snow_wizard]

Agreed, that's why I think Jim would be happy there. I've been to Michigan in July..if you live on/near one of the Great Lakes, it's very crisp and comfortable..in fact it can be a full 20 degrees cooler on the lakeshore compared to 50 miles inland.

 

I think the city of Houghton MI would be a dream for Jim. Trees are very much like the PNW, it's basically a peninsula that sticks out onto Lake Superior. The snowfall average is over 200" with plentiful lake-effect blizzards, and the summer days rarely get past 75 degrees. Plus they get big thunderstorms in the Summer.

I've got to look at possibilities that are actually possible. Basically 10 months out of the year are perfect in Central WA.

[Phil]

I've got to look at possibilities that are actually possible. Basically 10 months out of the year are perfect in Central WA.

I getcha. Just don't be afraid to look out-of-region. I made the decision to go out-of-region in 1996 when I moved here, and I don't regret it...it was very fun.

 

Here's a link, if you want to give it a look: http://www.cityofhoughton.com

 

Home prices are great, too: http://m.realtor.com/#results?loc=Houghton%2CMI

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

They say there are two seasons in Houghton:  Winters here, and Winters coming.

[Phil]

They say there are two seasons in Houghton: Winters here, and Winters coming.

I admit that I'm biased towards the Keenaw Pennisula because we'd visit my uncle there as a kid.

 

But I really think it's really the perfect area for Jim. http://www.upmls.com/cityview.php?city=Eagle+Harbor

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I admit that I'm biased towards the Keenaw Pennisula because we'd visit my uncle there as a kid.

 

But I really think it's really the perfect area for Jim. http://www.upmls.com/cityview.php?city=Eagle+Harbor

It sounds appealing to me too, though I am pretty committed to where I am now. 

 

I like places where they embrace the snow, instead of treating it like a catastrosphe like Seattle does.  Though I can see how they would get tired of it by about March or so.

[snow_wizard]

It sounds appealing to me too, though I am pretty committed to where I am now. 

 

I like places where they embrace the snow, instead of treating it like a catastrosphe like Seattle does.  Though I can see how they would get tired of it by about March or so.

I think Leavenworth gets plenty of snow to satisfy just about anyone. Even an average of 40 or 50 inches a winter would be enough for me. Winthrop is the place that blows my mind. They only average 14 inches of water equivalent a year and yet have an average annual snowfall of 70 inches. Even more amazingly their normal depth on the ground for February is 19 inches. Epic for such a dry climate. I would bet only a tiny fraction of the country excluding high elevations has that kind of normal depth.

[snow_wizard]

I admit that I'm biased towards the Keenaw Pennisula because we'd visit my uncle there as a kid.

 

But I really think it's really the perfect area for Jim. http://www.upmls.com/cityview.php?city=Eagle+Harbor

That would be amazing to experience a winter there. Maybe too much of a good thing though. I also like dry summer very much which makes places east of the Rockies problematic.

[Phil]

It sounds appealing to me too, though I am pretty committed to where I am now.

 

I like places where they embrace the snow, instead of treating it like a catastrosphe like Seattle does. Though I can see how they would get tired of it by about March or so.

Agreed there. I could never live in a big city where people fret over every snowflake. My sister in DC says people there flock to the grocery stores when snow showers are in the forecast..lol..

 

 

I read the Wikipedia page on Houghton though..very nice place if you're an icepussy..but otherwise its probably too extreme for me:

 

"Climate

Houghton has a humid continental climate but the (typically) long and snowy (due to lake-effect snow, with an average of 218 inches (5.54 m))[29] winters make the city feel as though it is in a climate much further north. It is sometimes said that Houghton has “two seasons: winter’s here and winter’s coming.”[30]

 

While Houghton’s winters may be the subject of humor, residents take the subject of snow and winter very seriously. Houghton is one of the premier “Winter Cities” found anywhere. A “Winter City” is a community that accommodates winter, celebrates it, and whose residents generally enjoy the season by participating in a variety of outdoor activities. Among those activities are cross country skiing, snow-shoeing, ice fishing, snowmobiling, ice skating and outdoor ice hockey, among other activities. Houghton celebrates winter through the “Winter Carnival” organized by Michigan Tech every year in February.[31]

 

Houghton's summer climate tends to be especially pleasant, as hot temperatures are often moderated by the cool waters of the nearby Lake Superior. Only once, in July 1988, have temperatures hotter than 100 °F (38 °C) been reported. The coldest temperature on record has been −26 °F (−32 °C) on 21 January 1984, which is actually less extreme than many places to the west, and the heaviest monthly snow 119 inches (3.02 m) in December 1972. The highest mean snow cover has been 43 inches (1.09 m) on several occasions, most recently in February 1996."

[snow_wizard]

Agreed there. I could never live in a big city where people fret over every snowflake. My sister in DC says people there flock to the grocery stores when snow showers are in the forecast..lol..

 

 

I read the Wikipedia page on Houghton though..very nice place if you're an icepussy..but otherwise its probably too extreme for me:

 

"Climate

Houghton has a humid continental climate but the (typically) long and snowy (due to lake-effect snow, with an average of 218 inches (5.54 m))[29] winters make the city feel as though it is in a climate much further north. It is sometimes said that Houghton has “two seasons: winter’s here and winter’s coming.”[30]

 

 

 

While Houghton’s winters may be the subject of humor, residents take the subject of snow and winter very seriously. Houghton is one of the premier “Winter Cities” found anywhere. A “Winter City” is a community that accommodates winter, celebrates it, and whose residents generally enjoy the season by participating in a variety of outdoor activities. Among those activities are cross country skiing, snow-shoeing, ice fishing, snowmobiling, ice skating and outdoor ice hockey, among other activities. Houghton celebrates winter through the “Winter Carnival” organized by Michigan Tech every year in February.[31]

 

Houghton's summer climate tends to be especially pleasant, as hot temperatures are often moderated by the cool waters of the nearby Lake Superior. Only once, in July 1988, have temperatures hotter than 100 °F (38 °C) been reported. The coldest temperature on record has been −26 °F (−32 °C) on 21 January 1984, which is actually less extreme than many places to the west, and the heaviest monthly snow 119 inches (3.02 m) in December 1972. The highest mean snow cover has been 43 inches (1.09 m) on several occasions, most recently in February 1996."

The -26 extreme low is surprising. Many places in WA east of the Cascades have been colder than that. I'm sure the lake has much to do with that.

[Phil]

The -26 extreme low is surprising. Many places in WA east of the Cascades have been colder than that. I'm sure the lake has much to do with that.

Yeah the lake buffers out the extremes in both seasons. Cooler summers as well.

[snow_wizard]

The moment of truth is pretty much upon us for seeing how the first attempt for an El Nino to develop is going to play out. The Kelvin wave is in the process of surfacing. The atmosphere is pretty unfavorable for El Nino development at this time so the major Kelvin wave could possibly fail to cause the degree of SST warming that some are expecting. The daily SOI readings have gone to zero in recent days and the MJO is about to enter octant 2 which is pretty bad news for El Ninos that are trying to develop. I still think some kind of a Nino is the most likely but we could easily avoid a major one.

[jaya]

The moment of truth is pretty much upon us for seeing how the first attempt for an El Nino to develop is going to play out. The Kelvin wave is in the process of surfacing. The atmosphere is pretty unfavorable for El Nino development at this time so the major Kelvin wave could possibly fail to cause the degree of SST warming that some are expecting. The daily SOI readings have gone to zero in recent days and the MJO is about to enter octant 2 which is pretty bad news for El Ninos that are trying to develop. I still think some kind of a Nino is the most likely but we could easily avoid a major one.

 

Looking more and more like moderate El Nino is in store http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf . I think that there are some weak El Ninos that have wimped out quickly due to atmospheric circulation changes (2006-07 comes to mind), but the warm water shifting east will affect the atmospheric circulation as well (chicken and egg type of argument -nonlinear) changing the direction of the flow (sign of the SOI) and its strength.  The daily SOI should become quite negative once the warm water surfaces over the east central Pacific though it may go to zero or slightly positive at times. It may take a bit longer for the convection to shift too far eastward since we are moving into southern hemisphere winter.  Time scales in the ocean are longer than in the atmosphere, and once the convection does shift east - there the atmosphere will likely respond for a few months. 

[PRISM]

Seems like the hype is making its rounds:

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/strong-el-nino-may-be-materializing.html

[Phil]

Seems like the hype is making its rounds:

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/strong-el-nino-may-be-materializing.html

He says:

 

Ahead of the Kelvin Wave, we then see downwelling, which lowers sea levels and cools sea surface temperatures,

Since when does downwelling associated with a WWB cool SSTs?

 

Seems like a lot of folks forget that the subsurface waters are still generally colder than surface waters, and that a maintained series of WWBs is required to jump start a Niño..

[snow_wizard]

I still say something is fishy about how sudden the warm subsurface waters have emerged.  It looks increasingly possible this Nino will be an early peaker as there is already anomalous cold water spreading in behind the Kelvin wave.  The chances of this playing out like a 1980s or 1990s El Nino event are small IMO.

[snow_wizard]

Seems like the hype is making its rounds:

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/strong-el-nino-may-be-materializing.html

 

I think it's obvious that certain factions want a super Nino to make global temps spike.  The global warming agenda has stagnated due to lack of warming over the past 15 years or so.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I want to see an El Nino that is strong enough and peaks just at the right time to bring significant drought relief to CA and surrounding states. What I don't want to see is another ENSO neutral year like the last couple that brings a whopping season total of 5" to Los Angeles and paltry Sierra snowfall.

[Phil]

Big difference over the past winter/spring has been the +PDO/El Niño-esque Hadley Cell regime, which is now being reflected in the SSTs..

 

We now have a +PDO and El Niño conditions present.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif

[weatherfan2012]

Big difference over the past winter/spring has been the +PDO/El Niño-esque Hadley Cell regime, which is now being reflected in the SSTs..

We now have a +PDO and El Niño conditions present.http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif[/ quote] it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few seasons. in fact I think the next 5 years is going to get very interesting as we progress out of our current sun max to the bottom.

[snow_wizard]

Uh oh...

 

[TT-SEA]

Uh oh...

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.png

 

 

What does this mean??