Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

[Phil]

They're windfield anomalies, a derivation of the AAM scale. Blue = -AAM/easterlies. Visa versa to the red.

[TT-SEA]

They're windfield anomalies, a derivation of the AAM scale. Blue = -AAM/easterlies. Visa versa to the red.

 

 

No... what does it MEAN?

 

Nino getting stronger or failing?

[Phil]

No... what does it MEAN?

 

Nino getting stronger or failing?

Neither.

 

The thermocline is kind of taking a hit in the eastern regions but the typhoon off Australia is semi-coupled with the CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave), which could kick start another WWB in a week, around 180W, as it progresses east.

[TT-SEA]

Neither.

 

The thermocline is kind of taking a hit in the eastern regions but the typhoon off Australia is semi-coupled with the CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave), which could kick start another WWB in a week, around 180W, as it progresses east.

 

 

Jim obviously thought it meant something with his "uh-oh".

 

Either that was celebratory sarcasm as he has been known to display with anything bad for a Nino... or he thinks its bad news.

[Jesse]

Jim obviously thought it meant something with his "uh-oh".

 

Either that was celebratory sarcasm as he has been known to display with anything bad for a Nino... or he thinks its bad news.

 

Surprised no one ever responded to this post. I was curious too.

[Phil]

Surprised no one ever responded to this post. I was curious too.

I responded to Tim in a previous post. Jim is looking at a temporary resurgence of the easterlies east of Niño 4..the "uh oh" means "bad news for the Niño".

 

Of course, with the Walker Cell having migrated very far east, the fading of the +QBO-induced thermals at and above the tropical tropopause, plus a chaotic solar flux, the stage is set for a +AAM/El Niño response..however, the idea that we're in for a Super-Niño is irrational based on the specific disequilibrium we have going.

 

The Niño will be more basin-wide, rather than west based, but that alone can't push it strong. If you believe ENSO derives from an internal feedback loop, you'd be predicting a strong event right now. I expect a weak or moderate event, with two semi-distinct peaks.

[snow_wizard]

I responded to Tim in a previous post. Jim is looking at a temporary resurgence of the easterlies east of Niño 4..the "uh oh" means "bad news for the Niño".

 

Of course, with the Walker Cell having migrated very far east, the fading of the +QBO-induced thermals at and above the tropical tropopause, plus a chaotic solar flux, the stage is set for a +AAM/El Niño response..however, the idea that we're in for a Super-Niño is irrational based on the specific disequilibrium we have going.

 

The Niño will be more basin-wide, rather than west based, but that alone can't push it strong. If you believe ENSO derives from an internal feedback loop, you'd be predicting a strong event right now. I expect a weak or moderate event, with two semi-distinct peaks.

 

No...I was actually commenting on the possible WWB between 180 and 150E.

[Phil]

No...I was actually commenting on the possible WWB between 180 and 150E.

Huh? That's west even of Niño 4..and that won't kick start an oceanic KW either..there's already plenty of upwelling occurring in the WPAC attm..

[richard mann]

Jim obviously thought it meant something with his "uh-oh".

 

Either that was celebratory sarcasm ... or he thinks it[']s bad news.

 

.. one from the "Rolodex" Tim. ?  (It's a "good" one, certainly.) 

[richard mann]

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http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/167-will-a-major-el-nino-spell-doom-for-next-winter-in-the-nw/?p=24213
 
 

Strange configuration of warmer water in the ENSO region... seems centered unusually far north compared to a typical Nino.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.10.2014.gif

 
A month previous. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.3.10.2014.gif
And more current. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.14.2014.gif
 
In my view the warming both just north of the equator, both central Pacific and more eastward, along with also otherwise that off Mexico and nearer to Hawaii extending SW (Difficult to know what you've meant with the way you've said what you have here above.) .. are all, in large part, the result of a gradually decreasing level of colder waters generated within the extreme Northern Pacific: -this with considering their greater circulation path from there more eastward, before turning south more to move down along the greater coast and then more westward at lower latitudes. — Much stronger (colder) from earlier last fall and through to about the middle of Feb. this year. And with this, even a more "negatively" registering PDO having been in effect through much of Oct. of 2013. 
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.3.2013.gif -...10.17.2013.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html
 
Check the animation accessible here below to note this general circulation of colder Sea Surface waters, looked at more broadly. 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_6mfull.html  -(.. takes a few moments to load in.)
 
In addition to the warming nearer to the equator, more narrow than the main and larger gyre related / connected to this basic circulation of colder water through the Eastern Pacific, this gradual decrease in and of cold entering into this system has also, otherwise apparently, worked to have allowed the relatively more warm waters—not part of this circulation—to have both collected more tightly, and drifted more NNE.
 
— Previous discussion, related more generally. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/214-april-2014-in-the-pnw/?p=24813

[Utrex]

Today the trades pretty much died. That's good news for California.

[snow_wizard]

There are certainly signs this El Nino is going to be nothing special.  The subsurface profile shows anomalously cold water rapidly spreading eastward behind the subsurface Kelvin wave.  So far the sub surface warmth has done nothing to initiate a Nino thanks to unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Equatorial Pacific.  Trade wind forecasts suggest any westerly wind anomalies will be west of 150E which is decidedly unfavorable for any El Nino development. 

 

I think there's a chance there will be no El Nino at all by late summer.  The odds are still against that, but it can't be ruled out.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Today the trades pretty much died. That's good news for California.

 

I am really rooting for this El Nino to develop because we cannot afford to have another ENSO neutral or weak ENSO year this winter, or there will be water restrictions like we have never seen before if we have another ultra dry year like the past two.

[Phil]

There are certainly signs this El Nino is going to be nothing special. The subsurface profile shows anomalously cold water rapidly spreading eastward behind the subsurface Kelvin wave. So far the sub surface warmth has done nothing to initiate a Nino thanks to unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Equatorial Pacific. Trade wind forecasts suggest any westerly wind anomalies will be west of 150E which is decidedly unfavorable for any El Nino development.

 

I think there's a chance there will be no El Nino at all by late summer. The odds are still against that, but it can't be ruled out.

The Walker cell has migrated very far east...that coupled with the decaying +QBO windfield should unleash the MJO and force an El Niño. However, the super-niño talk is just catastrophist hype.

 

Here's what I wrote back in mid February:

 

We're now entering the crucial window that will determine the momentum of the tropical circulation as we head deeper into 2014.

 

Right now, a massive kelvin wave (possibly the strongest wave in history) is propagating across the tropical Pacific. This wave similar to the persistent wind forcing/wave event that jump started the 1997-98 super Niño. However, I'm not sold that we're in for a strong Niño at this time.

 

As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate El Niño, probably either peaking early and/or featuring two peaks. I base this prediction on stratospheric, solar, and internal parameters..with the Sun/QBO coupling ultimately determining whether or not the upcoming ENSO warming during March/April/May will sustain or recoil into a chaotic mess.

 

This should be an interesting evolution, as the global circulatory network is now moving away from the dominating 1998-2012 regime.

[richard mann]

...... catastrophist hype.

 

 

 

May I quote you. ?

[Phil]

May I quote you. ?

There's a difference between predictions based on evidence and peer reviewed science vs off the cuff super niño predictions.

 

A typical El Niño event will kill 5000-10,000 people in underdeveloped countries. The 1997-98 event killed over 25,000 people. Yes, El Niños kill people, and are catastrophic.

[richard mann]

-
 
.. Ah, Ha. (!)
 
 (Sarcasm Alert.)

Appreciate your having gone to the trouble to have worked (in this instance. ? Or should I say "incidence". ?) to connect the dots for me here above. (If probably, in my own estimation, more help to you than me.)
 
And I'll certainly be working to discern better, just when I might be encountering different "catastrophist", even "catastrophists'", "hype".  
 
And with this, also whatever "off the cuff" characterizations I might find, or suspect to have—along with, to the extent I'm able to, "people" who throw them around.
 
... So, it's the gravity then (?) that you've presumed, that I've called into question, even neglected, with my request above previously. (?) No "Phil". ... (Rather) The ease, with which "you", negatively characterize, views not your own, and where regarding whatever themes that you've attached yours to. — And (do me a big favor. ?) please, don't [presume to] lecture me regarding the potential, degree of severity where looking at whatever type of either whether weather or climate connected event, potentially "catastrophic", in the future. ... Plainly, where viewed more specifically in line with your efforts since above to explain it, "catastrophic hype", is an exercise in .. "circular" logic.

[Phil]

I get that you might think I'm a hypocrite, totally. Not going to lecture you, either.

 

Just hope you'll keep an open mind, and understand that predicting a major climate shift is not easy and often contradicts what I say about other theories out there, in terms of their level of "hype"..

[richard mann]

-
 
That's quite a bit to "keep in mind", and "understand" .. "Phil".  
 
So, and if otherwise .. you're asking me to encourage those who would venture, even allow for and not lose sight of the degree of difficulty where considering, the idea of "predicting a major climate shift".
 

(Another "Sarcasm Alert" here.)

 

.. I'll make every effort to adjust my thinking where considering my opportunities to do so in the future.
 
$ .. It's the sweeping generalizations of others' thinking, that you allude to, that I find objectionable "Phil".

 

— To my view, those generalizations, published, constitute a certain type of "hyperbole", in and of their own.

[Phil]

Thanks, I understand.

 

Reading through some of my old posts, I realize that I may have sounded like an arrogant, egotistical "know-it-all", when dismissing ideas that I don't agree with.

 

I'm trying to fix that, because I'm really not like that in reality. It's been hard for me to adjust my perceptions on "debate" since my retirement. When working, become accustomed to rigorous debate amongst peers, circular reasoning, and attacks from outside agencies. Over time I became a cold, heartless robot, as did most of my colleagues.

 

It's stressful when you have agencies with agendas outside the US, attacking you and scientific progress, then going to other agencies without classified status, and using them as a mouthpiece to claim you're the one hoarding money and attacking science.

[richard mann]

-
O.k. .. I guess that's all appreciable to some degree.
 
With all of these ideas being the case although, if I were you, or let's just say at least, I would, .. instead of allowing yourself to either whether revisit that past more intense debate type energy, and forum, or either to be concerned with whatever more high-powered argument/s with even more obscured entities, .. work more to deal with, even approach this forum and what you submit to it, in a more academic way; i.e. as if you were speaking to a wider spectrum of people, interested in the weather and climate, a bit more casually leastwise. And with this, then further perhaps, potentially, in whatever theme more specific that you might have in mind to comment with respect to.
 
Basically, preface, context and substance (still. ?). And with and given these elements covered where considering whatever you have to say or might, more an aim to actually convey something, whatever, to a wider cross-section of people; whom might perhaps benefit more academically, from seeing it posted and reading through it.

— More succinctly, I'd say that "foundation", of whatever posted is the most important element where considering a more public forum more scientifically focused. With it provided, anyone commenting in response to whatever, has something [more] solid to work with and from.

 

More specifically, where looking at whatever "Nino", or "ENSO" related thinking, I'd say that whatever said, certainly needs some amount of preface. Context being somewhat less important, if not considering ideas more obscured potentially. And then again, with substance and foundation to work from being more primary. 

[snow_wizard]

Very interesting...the 30 day SOI is now solidly positive after being below -10 for a time and there are no WWB's anywhere in sight.  The chances of a major Nino are very low now.  Looking at the MJO it has looked more Ninaish the past few weeks and looks poised to take another tour through Nina territory in the coming weeks.  The atmosphere is going to quash a major event once again.

[Phil]

Agreed. As I've said from the beginning, I believe the forcings that govern ENSO suggest a weak or moderate event is the likely outcome. It should also be a basin-wide event, rather than a west-based event, IE: 2009-10.

[seattleweatherguy]

Agreed. As I've said from the beginning, I believe the forcings that govern ENSO suggest a weak or moderate event is the likely outcome. It should also be a basin-wide event, rather than a west-based event, IE: 2009-10.

so u you expect no snow this year? And 80s this week!

[snow_wizard]

so u you expect no snow this year? And 80s this week!

 

He actually thinks this Nino may be like the 1965-66 and 1968-69 Ninos.  Both of which were good winters here...especially 1968-69.

[Phil]

One of my warmist friends is already panicking about the supposed "demise" of El Niño.

 

While I think El Niño is pretty much a lock for 2014-15, conditions do not appear to be very favorable right now, and could get worse as we head into May.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/NQUqs3/800.jpg

[Phil]

Yeah. I already posted this in the main El Nino thread.

I didn't see that, sorry. The fact that there two threads with ENSO-restated stuff is kinda blah.

 

If the predicted easterly burst verifies, it may very well amplify the upwelling that is currently occurring between 160-140W..note the 20C isotherm: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[snow_wizard]

One of my warmist friends is already panicking about the supposed "demise" of El Niño.

 

While I think El Niño is pretty much a lock for 2014-15, conditions do not appear to be very favorable right now, and could get worse as we head into May.

 

 

 

There hasn't been an easterly burst like that in the 120 to 150E area for a hell of a long time.

[Jesse]

There hasn't been an easterly burst like that in the 120 to 150E area for a hell of a long time.

Is that bad for the Niño?

[Bham_Guy]

Latest anomaly map:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.28.2014.gif

[Phil]

There's another KW developing in the WPAC associated with the MJO. Next 10-15 days should see ENSO warming.

[snow_wizard]

Is that bad for the Niño?

 

 

I think the Nino could be in serious trouble.  The MJO recently spent a long time in areas more favorable for La Nina before making a quick pass through more traditional Nino regions in a weakened state.  Now the MJO is slated to make another fairly amplified and slow pass through octants 1 through 4 (Nina territory).  The March SOI was -12 and then it shot up to +6 in April.

 

I still have to say some kind of a Nino is still the most likely this winter, but there is some doubt creeping in.  Almost no way this will be anything close to the super Nino that some have been touting.

[Phil]

Nice animation of the global subsurface (right). Note the KW in across the equatorial Pacific.

 

http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/animation-1-sst-v-h300-jan-3-thru-mar-29.gif

[snow_wizard]

Nice animation of the global subsurface (left). Note the KW in across the equatorial pacific.

 

 

 

Very cool!  It's quite apparent on the subsurface map that all of the excess heat in the Western Pacific has been dissipated now.  We could get this warm ENSO event over with rather quickly.

[snow_wizard]

It's quite remarkable how almost everything is turning sour for this potential El Nino event now. The latest OLR anomaly map for 160W to 160E in the equatorial region indicates a positive anomaly (ninaish), the latest MJO forecast indicates the MJO being in octants 1 through 4 (ninaish) for at least the next two weeks, GLAAM forecasts indicate a decent negative AAM episode (ninaish) coming up, the April SOI was solidly positive (unfavorable for Nino), and last but not least the subsurface temperature animation for the equatorial Pacific indicates the subsurface warm pool is rapidly shrinking and becoming less anomalously warm. Perhaps the most important factor of all is there is nothing but cold water right on the heels of the subsurface warm pool.

[Phil]

There is a OKW currently over the WPAC, forced by the previous MJO surge, which was allowed/enhanced by the eastward-oriented Walker Cell. While there are no legit WWBs in sight, the El Niño is developing as we'd expect it to.

 

I'm leaning towards a moderate event for 2014-15, but it could end up weak.

 

That said, looks like easterlies are taking over the WPAC for now:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/6Sz1H9/800.jpg

[Phil]

Latest SST update:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.8.2014.gif

[richard mann]

-
 
Regarding the most recent SSTAs graphic above, ...
 
.. Colder air mass from the higher latitudes North still fairly plentiful.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/14050822452014128.jpg
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

 Colder surface-water circulation from the north, not so much. 
 
This with where looking at colder current circulation more up from the South working to influence the broader equatorial Pacific at this point—if more significant, and with of course considering the season—its general depth of cold also appearing to be decreasing.  -  http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

[snow_wizard]

The huge subsurface warm pool continues to shrivel up and lose its punch. That combined with an extremely unfavorable atmosphere for Nino development projected to last at least another 2 weeks leads me to predict there is some chance there will be no Nino at all during the winter of 2014-15. I'm actually shocked there is any realistic chance this Nino will completely fail. No question we have entered a new regime.

[TT-SEA]

The huge subsurface warm pool continues to shrivel up and lose its punch. That combined with an extremely unfavorable atmosphere for Nino development projected to last at least another 2 weeks leads me to predict there is some chance there will be no Nino at all during the winter of 2014-15. I'm actually shocked there is any realistic chance this Nino will completely fail. No question we have entered a new regime.

 

 

I hope it fails.    Neutral has been wonderful... except for this incredibly wet spring.