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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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I was just thinking about all the space we will have in 5 years when the boys go to college!   

 

I remember something about snow here... but it seems so distant.    Like it was a dream.   I think it used to snow here.   

 

I know seriously... Well I did have an 8" snow storm a month ago, so not to distant a dream. I had storm totals of 32, 20, 16, & 10" in the winter of 2011-12. The past two winters haven't really stacked up...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well, if a Nino is a sure thing, I want a big one.

 

Jim, are you ***sure*** you're not letting your negativity get the best of you and ENSO right now? You do tend get a little blue between MAR and JUL, but I can't remember you ever being this defeated.

 

I thought we did OK this winter. I had about 20 inches of snow and a couple of really nice to runs of below freezing days. Although, Eugene, Albany, and Corvallis did better.

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Well, if a Nino is a sure thing, I want a big one.

 

Jim, are you ***sure*** you're not letting your negativity get the best of you and ENSO right now? You do tend get a little blue between MAR and JUL, but I can't remember you ever being this defeated.

 

I thought we did OK this winter. I had about 20 inches of snow and a couple of really nice to runs of below freezing days. Although, Eugene, Albany, and Corvallis did better.

I can usually look at ENSO forecasts with less emotion than our winter forecasts. I'm pretty sure we will have a Nino. A big one would probably be best for us in the long run, although it will likely mean three horrible winters in row for snowfall here.

 

Apparently you didn't hear how the Puget Sound area got totally screwed for snowfall this winter compared to everywhere else from Eugene to Vancouver BC. The cold was pretty impressive at times, but that's about it here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I can usually look at ENSO forecasts with less emotion that our winter forecasts. I'm pretty sure we will have a Nino. A big one would probably be best for us in the long run, although it will likely mean three horrible winters in row for snowfall here.

 

Apparently you didn't hear how the Puget Sound area got totally screwed for snowfall this winter compared to everywhere else from Eugene to Vancouver BC. The cold was pretty impressive at times, but that's about it here.

 

 

Jim you are acting really silly over missing out on a couple days of snow.    Its just snow.

 

If we had 140 days of rain then there is a reason to be VERY depressed.   That just sucks your soul living in darkness for so long.    But this winter was quite pleasant and bright.    

 

You are talking about not having snow on the ground for just a few days.    It never lasts here.   Its not like Eugene and Bellingham were buried in snow and freezing cold all winter while you missed everything.     You are 50 years old... there has to be more important things than seeing snow in your yard for a couple days.       

 

Yes... I know the response from others.   There has to be more important things than talking about this on a weather forum as well.   Got it.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jim you are acting really silly over missing out on a couple days of snow.    Its just snow.

 

If we had 140 days of rain then there is a reason to be VERY depressed.   That just sucks your soul living in darkness for so long.    But this winter was quite pleasant and bright.    

 

You are talking about not having snow on the ground for just a few days.    It never lasts here.   Its not like Eugene and Bellingham were buried in snow and freezing cold all winter while you missed everything.     You are 50 years old... there has to be more important things than seeing snow in your yard for a couple days.       

 

Yes... I know the response from others.   There has to be more important things than talking about this on a weather forum as well.   Got it.    :lol:

I got a good laugh from that last sentence. :lol:

 

Sad it took me so long to realize I really do need to move. It's very obvious to me now that it has to happen. Much of the winter was dry and bright as you say, but the past month has been hideous. I think that is what finally sent me over the edge. I took the day off from work today (prearranged yesterday) so I could actually do something constructive outside today. That made me feel a lot better.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I got a good laugh from that last sentence. :lol:

 

Sad it took me so long to realize I really do need to move. It's very obvious to me now that it has to happen. Much of the winter was dry and bright as you say, but the past month has been hideous. I think that is what finally sent me over the edge. I took the day off from work today (prearranged yesterday) so I could actually do something constructive outside today. That made me feel a lot better.

 

Very smart idea about today.

 

I was working from home and felt guilty for spending time in the yard... but then thought that I really needed to be out there because its been so gloomy and its good for mental state to see the sun once in awhile!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The sun sure warmed my soul today. What a gorgeous day.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Jim you are acting really silly over missing out on a couple days of snow.    Its just snow.

 

If we had 140 days of rain then there is a reason to be VERY depressed.   That just sucks your soul living in darkness for so long.    But this winter was quite pleasant and bright.    

 

You are talking about not having snow on the ground for just a few days.    It never lasts here.   Its not like Eugene and Bellingham were buried in snow and freezing cold all winter while you missed everything.     You are 50 years old... there has to be more important things than seeing snow in your yard for a couple days.       

 

Yes... I know the response from others.   There has to be more important things than talking about this on a weather forum as well.   Got it.    :lol:

Being able to think back all spring and summer on that 36 hour period of snow will always put a smile on my face and force me to reminisce on how incredible it was to experience this year after such a long stretch of disappointment. Sure, 11 inches of snow isn’t much to write home about to a lot of people in this world, but we wait year in and year out for that one big event. And to some of us on here, it can change the entire complexion of our daily lives moving forward... It’s sort of like die-hard Seahawks fans and the Superbowl.   It doesn’t last forever, but it can be the difference for a little while. It’ll also make a loser winter next year more bearable. However, I think a MOD El Nino next year will yield just as good a shot at giving us as much or more snow than we had this year. Wouldn’t be hard to do for most places on Western Wa. 

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Being able to think back all spring and summer on that 36 hour period of snow will always put a smile on my face and force me to reminisce on how incredible it was to experience this year after such a long stretch of disappointment. Sure, 11 inches of snow isn’t much to write home about to a lot of people in this world, but we wait year in and year out for that one big event. And to some of us on here, it can change the entire complexion of our daily lives moving forward... It’s sort of like die-hard Seahawks fans and the Superbowl.   It doesn’t last forever, but it can be the difference for a little while. It’ll also make a loser winter next year more bearable. However, I think a MOD El Nino next year will yield just as good a shot at giving us as much or more snow than we had this year. Wouldn’t be hard to do for most places on Western Wa. 

 

Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if next winter is snowier for a lot of western WA with a moderate El Nino. There's not much recent precedent for big snows with a moderate or strong El Nino (2006-07 and 1968-69 were both weak), certainly not more than the 15" we had here this winter or the 14" they had in Clark County. Seattle might be able to top their 4" total from this winter, but climo says don't bet on it.

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Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if next winter is snowier for a lot of western WA with a moderate El Nino. There's not much recent precedent for big snows with a moderate or strong El Nino (2006-07 and 1968-69 were both weak), certainly not more than the 15" we had here this winter or the 14" they had in Clark County. Seattle might be able to top their 4" total from this winter, but climo says don't bet on it.

I wouldn’t bet on it, but I’m not going to go into next winter with any less of a vision of a monster snowstorm than this year. 

 

Expect the unexpected. 

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Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if next winter is snowier for a lot of western WA with a moderate El Nino. There's not much recent precedent for big snows with a moderate or strong El Nino (2006-07 and 1968-69 were both weak), certainly not more than the 15" we had here this winter or the 14" they had in Clark County. Seattle might be able to top their 4" total from this winter, but climo says don't bet on it.

2006-07 and 1968-69 were both moderate, with a peak trimonthly ONI of 1.0+: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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It appears we might have one more chance to do some real damage to the potentially developing El Nino. The subsurface Kelvin wave is about to surface at the same time we are entering a very Nina-ish MJO wave (octants 2 through 4). The graphic I'm posing is from what has been proven to be one of the best MJO forecast models. One other thing we have going for us is the SOI* (different than the SOI) which is progged to be rather high for the next two weeks as strong surface high pressure off the West Coast of South America takes hold. I think it will become apparent within the next few weeks just how serious of trouble we may be in as far as the possible El Nino is concerned.

post-222-0-14445300-1394991768_thumb.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears we might have one more chance to do some real damage to the potentially developing El Nino. The subsurface Kelvin wave is about to surface at the same time we are entering a very Nina-ish MJO wave (octants 2 through 4). The graphic I'm posing is from what has been proven to be one of the best MJO forecast models. One other thing we have going for us is the SOI* (different than the SOI) which is progged to be rather high for the next two weeks as strong surface high pressure off the West Coast of South America takes hold. I think it will become apparent within the next few weeks just how serious of trouble we may be in as far as the possible El Nino is concerned.

We're almost certainly in for a Niño, but it'll end up as either weak or moderate. Top analog for 2014-15 is 1957-58, despite that one being a strong Niño.

 

ECMWF tries to push the Walker cell a bit farther east, hence: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

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We're almost certainly in for a Niño, but it'll end up as either weak or moderate. Top analog for 2014-15 is 1957-58, despite that one being a strong Niño.

 

ECMWF tries to push the Walker cell a bit farther east, hence: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

Ewww. 1957-58 was one of the biggest loser winters of all time here. Pretty remarkable since it was in the other wise amazing 1950s.

 

It is interesting, however, that the atmosphere continues to be way out of synch with what the ocean wants to do in the tropical Pacific. The entire time we have been in this Ninoesque atmosphere ENSO SSTs have been cold, and now warm water is about to surface and the atmosphere will go Ninaish.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Ewww. 1957-58 was one of the biggest loser winters of all time here. Pretty remarkable since it was in the other wise amazing 1950s.

 

It is interesting, however, that the atmosphere continues to be way out of synch with what the ocean wants to do in the tropical Pacific. The entire time we have been in this Ninoesque atmosphere ENSO SSTs have been cold, and now warm water is about to surface and the atmosphere will go Ninaish.

 

I wonder if it is these conflicting signals that may be at least in part contributing to the bad drought conditions in CA by any chance. It almost sounds to me as if things are offsetting each other in some sort of fashion and as a result we are getting nothing but repeats of warm dry weather here in Socal.

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Ewww. 1957-58 was one of the biggest loser winters of all time here. Pretty remarkable since it was in the other wise amazing 1950s.

 

It is interesting, however, that the atmosphere continues to be way out of synch with what the ocean wants to do in the tropical Pacific. The entire time we have been in this Ninoesque atmosphere ENSO SSTs have been cold, and now warm water is about to surface and the atmosphere will go Ninaish.

Things could change. The atmosphere/external forcings actually govern the oceans, though they both (oceans/atmosphere) work within the boundaries of one another, as a fully coupled system. Tropical SSTs are one of many factors that affect tropical convection/the Hadley Cells.

 

As the latest peer reviewed literature has found, ENSO can be fully explained via solar, geomagnetic, QBO, and SAO forcings, which seem to govern the tropical circulations/MJO period frequency, hence ENSO.

 

That method has worked very well for me.

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I wonder if it is these conflicting signals that may be at least in part contributing to the bad drought conditions in CA by any chance. It almost sounds to me as if things are offsetting each other in some sort of fashion and as a result we are getting nothing but repeats of warm dry weather here in Socal.

If you think this is bad, research the two recent mega-droughts that affected the SW US. The last one occurred about 1000 years ago, with an even bigger one 2000yrs ago. These blow away anything witnessed in the modern era.

 

Notice, both of these droughts coincide with warm periods, hence poleward oriented Hadley Cells.

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If you think this is bad, research the two recent mega-droughts that affected the SW US. The last one occurred about 1000 years ago, with an even bigger one 2000yrs ago. These blow away anything witnessed in the modern era.

 

Notice, both of these droughts coincide with warm periods, hence poleward oriented Hadley Cells.

Well if we're going into a cool period, as you believe, he won't have to worry for much longer, right?

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Well if we're going into a cool period, as you believe, he won't have to worry for much longer, right?

Yep. Essentially, the poleward migration of the Hadley cells is the culprit for the SW US drought.

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Yep. Essentially, the poleward migration of the Hadley cells is the culprit for the SW US drought.

Do you expect that situation to become worse or better as we decent into the solar grand minimum? I think your theory about the minimum meaning fewer El Ninos makes a lot of sense.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yep. Essentially, the poleward migration of the Hadley cells is the culprit for the SW US drought.

 

The Hadley Cells consist basically of the subtropical high pressure systems that reside around 30N as a result of the subsidence from the convection in the ITCZ. Is that correct? When the cells extend poleward, I am assuming that these subtropical highs are larger and much further north than normal, creating a pattern of dryness further north normally associated with that of the "horse latitudes" leading to the megadrought conditions in the SW.

 

Did you say above that the Hadley Cells would likely shrink and retract southward, allowing more storminess for CA, if we go into a grand solar minimum? I just wanted to make sure I read your post correctly.

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I'm not putting a lot of stock in traditional forecast methods and models on this. There will likely be surprises with this event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The Hadley Cells consist basically of the subtropical high pressure systems that reside around 30N as a result of the subsidence from the convection in the ITCZ. Is that correct? When the cells extend poleward, I am assuming that these subtropical highs are larger and much further north than normal, creating a pattern of dryness further north normally associated with that of the "horse latitudes" leading to the megadrought conditions in the SW.

Bingo. Larger, weaker, and at a more poleward latitude.

 

Did you say above that the Hadley Cells would likely shrink and retract southward, allowing more storminess for CA, if we go into a grand solar minimum? I just wanted to make sure I read your post correctly.

Yes, they will, with rapid changes beginning from 2016-2018..

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Bingo. Larger, weaker, and at a more poleward latitude.

 

 

Yes, they will, with rapid changes beginning from 2016-2018..

Do you think the stars will align for some good winters in the NW in that same time frame?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Do you think the stars will align for some good winters in the NW in that same time frame?

 

It sure would be nice to have a year in which CA could receive a decent amount of rain and snow while you all experience several cold spells with lowland snow in the PNW, so we can all have some weather we can enjoy at the same time.

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Just for the record, it's true that the system is "ahead" of where it was during the Niño transitions of 1997, 2009, and 1982 at this time, and that we're steamrolling towards another Niño..

 

However, people have a habit of linear projection..and this will prove fatal for those predicting a super niño..

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The "super-Niño" hype continues..

 

The hype probably will continue until any "solid" proof is released. Still, there are some shocking comparisons to the 800mb zonal winds for the past 3 months, and for the same months (January, February, March). In addition, the subsurface pool of much warmer than usual waters is rapidly flowing east, and trying to push itself up to the surface as well. Almost seems like a replica to the pre-1997/98 El Niño environment…

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The hype probably will continue until any "solid" proof is released. Still, there are some shocking comparisons to the 800mb zonal winds for the past 3 months, and for the same months (January, February, March). In addition, the subsurface pool of much warmer than usual waters is rapidly flowing east, and trying to push itself up to the surface as well. Almost seems like a replica to the pre-1997/98 El Niño environment…

IMO the atmosphere won't allow anything like 1997-98 to develop this time. The warm water is going to be greeted by low AAM and an MJO in a Ninaish position when it surfaces. That is going to really take a bite out of the intensity of the warm anoms. It seems to me this is too sudden on the heels of fairly cold SSTs. Could be a flash in the pan so to speak and quickly fizzle. I think a more moderate Nino is more likely. This could be an early peak scenario like we had in 2012.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The hype is getting out of control . Andrew Freedman is a stupid alarmist crank at heart, without a shred of knowledge in the realm of physics and systems science.

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IMO the atmosphere won't allow anything like 1997-98 to develop this time. The warm water is going to be greeted by low AAM and an MJO in a Ninaish position when it surfaces. That is going to really take a bite out of the intensity of the warm anoms. It seems to me this is too sudden on the heels of fairly cold SSTs. Could be a flash in the pan so to speak and quickly fizzle. I think a more moderate Nino is more likely. This could be an early peak scenario like we had in 2012.

Even if we don't have an El Nino on par with 1997-98, I hope this attempt doesn't fizzle and we end up having another ENSO neutral year next year with a 5" season for Los Angeles and meager snows in the Sierras, or California is going to be in huge trouble drought-wise.

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IMO the atmosphere won't allow anything like 1997-98 to develop this time. The warm water is going to be greeted by low AAM and an MJO in a Ninaish position when it surfaces. That is going to really take a bite out of the intensity of the warm anoms. It seems to me this is too sudden on the heels of fairly cold SSTs. Could be a flash in the pan so to speak and quickly fizzle. I think a more moderate Nino is more likely. This could be an early peak scenario like we had in 2012.

 

 

I have heard the MJO won't give a large effect on the El Nino. 

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Seems to me in the last 10 years when we have a La Nina the atmosphere tries to act like an El Nino and when we have an El Nino the atmosphere behaves more like La Nina.    The atmosphere has gotten the confuzzles lately!

 

I bet however it will be close to a record one since the SST's have been unusually warm everywhere.

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